A Broader Perspective

525
Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.

TF

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SilverSurfers
May 25, 2013 - 1:27pm

Special Tribute

The Dark one, aka Dark Purple Haze, in charge of rhythim section, the whole purple gang, at Turdville, in the Turdistan Jail, the secretary of state for Turdville, for indispensable service to Trudville, a metal on honor winner, a real highway star being deep purple in deep.

I am the walrus = Alice in wonderland
The Jimi Hendrix Experience - All Along The Watchtower (Official Audio)
Elvis Presley - Jailhouse Rock (Music Video)
Video unavailable
SilverSurfers
May 25, 2013 - 12:59pm

Surprise

Surprise Surprise

The Rolling Stones - Route 66

The Rolling Stones - Route 66

Chuck Berry Route 66

Chuck Berry Route 66

Historic Route 66

Historic Route 66

Personally traveled route 66 from LA to Albuquerque NM through flag staff AZ, in 1966, sitting in the back sit, of a chevy nova, eyeballing maps, as a child co pilot, in the rear with the gear, and as fate would have it, route 66 ends in the windy city whereat is the shark school, TITS!!!!
Steppenwolf - Born to be wild 1969

Steppenwolf - Born to be wild 1969

Kissed my first girl in 69, just born to be wild. Got huge personal stories riding bike along CA coast, and through Vegas and UT in the freaking snow, talk about ICE COLD causes of actions, as history does repeat. My regrets Rocket Dog, perhaps its time for the rear display, and lite the after burners.

F15 Full Afterburner Vertical Take off
After Burner Climax
Carrier Takeoff and Landing, AKA Afterburners are OP

Get Serious, you all think, with that profile, we talking dog do do, with an effective 500 page attack plan, rock solid, with hatter willing to put it all on the line, going all in, back out of retirement for this purpose, working 20 hours a day, for god and country, wow, that is truly unbelievable, so grow up, and get real, and get serious, or do you all prefer chopping trees and yelling timbers, all day long, and all night long, at the blue moon, until the cows come home, and the bullion banks are over run, and the people are hung out to dry? Grow up and put your big boy pants on.
The Marcels-Blue Moon

The Marcels-Blue Moon

Incentives for the werewolf pack, besides the dollar per hour, ho stuff, 30% after fancy pants get handled, and with 100m minimum settlement, plus fees and costs, net 100m$ out, in light of 5B$ asked, that is, 18M$ for fancy pants, is 4.1m$ per werewolf, as a corporate bonus, leaving turd with 57m$, chump change, for the ebb and flow of funds, and could buy allot of shinny with that, and can stack em high, as the new wild thing, in the bullion space, drinking funky cold medina, to wash down that yellar.
Tone Loc - Wild Thing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rc9LkE0vpvk
Tone loc - funky cold medina

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63ZIf2H9S0E
But freaking walking on eggs with rest resting in the early AM, which is hard to do with tone loc going off, even with headphones on, but the boys are stirring now, russian language school of saturdays, parusskie saturdays, to bridge Russia-US trade ties in the out years, with vacations in Russia for the cultural match of them bi lateral passports, born there, Vladivoskee, Primoria, of course, of course, and Putin and the F--S-B boys dont intimidate at all at all, especially with an inlaw full bird implant, of course, of course. Alway loved the dark one. Yeah, usually down 9pm to 1am, 4 hours down, and then the after burners kick in for 20 hours, all 7 days. How the heck does one cram 100 years into 40 years, 20 per hat, in one skull otherwise? Been like that since 1971, regular space time. Roger dodger, but military science demands the sure play, concurrent while running special ops, so you got the full back in play while the flankers are out on the wing, defense play unsure and spread out, ripe for slaughter, and for the sure score, with plan B in play, allway, with the flanker doing the goal line razz ma tazz, and the defense is freakin mashed potatoes.
dee dee sharp - mashed potato time
THE MARVELETTES mashed potato time

dee dee sharp - mashed potato time
THE MARVELETTES mashed potato time
SilverSurfers
May 25, 2013 - 9:19am

Proposed

Lecture for team Turd, as follows:

Turd commander in chief

Hatter Lecturer with robust Q and A

Team of fancy Pants, bullion heavies to fund attack plan

Head Knocker, Rear Guard, Local Counsel

Arctic Goalie, a precision torpedo

Andy Dandy, a precision torpedo

Hindsight Capitalist, a precision torpedo

Invitees: King James, Sugar Cane, back up surprise sluggers.

Anywhere Anytime, Personal Notes Only, work product, not to be distributed to anyone, but kept as personal notes only. Torpedoes and Invitees and Head Knocker can attend by visual and audio telecomm. Hatter needs a chalk board, or easy erase ink board, as lecture will be heavy in diagrams for rapid perceptions.

SilverSurfers
May 25, 2013 - 8:13am

Regrets

Yes tinned show, you make a very valid point, but, (dont you love butt hurt), there is always a trade off, and one man can only do his best, and is not armed with a secretary staff for crossing tees and dotting eyes, so, have to trade off, and attack plan was put out, time wise, effectively 500 pages, in only three weeks, and beside, wife would butt hurt yours if such was even suggested, so, yours was locked into to the role of quarter back, without guards and tackles, and team TT is in on the rush, and happy feet are the play until the long bomb is thrown hail marry style for the score, and the route of the enemy in detail, and so, from huddle, called for an interview lecture for bullion heavies wishing to make a multiple bagger in less than one year, 6m$ in and $18m out, for the paper money score, and the pleasure of being a part of history, yours doing ones best, in the trade off, because, it works, given the resources in play, and that works, but regrets for the alley opp struggling, sincerely, but look at that cave man go!!

Alley Oop - The Hollywood Argyles

Figuring team turd goes in with a 13:1 advantage, which is rolling dice, and you only lose if snake eyes come up, and for 6M$ in, for at least 18m$ back in less than a year, seem like a smart business play, you bet, but what does Hatter know. And since is was requested, apparently, by the You Woodie Believer, and with the odds are so ICE COLD BABY, play it again sam:

Vanilla Ice - Ice Ice Baby

And seeing how hatter bats 1000% as plaintiff's attorney, you get to shave the dice, and rig the game for once. But find and post the pop corn chewer avatar, a must come back play for team TT. Please dont worry about calling Hatter out with Trash Talk, as that QB commanding at HQ, in the garage for a quarter century, a loner of sorts, currently on the bench, sitting it out, is a veteran of many super bowls and can handle the booes with very thick skin, while loving of all the adoring fans in the raucous jailhouse.

Video unavailable

Look, Hatter is very comfortable sitting on the bench, in retirement, but will come out and QB team turd for the winning score, but only if the head coach makes that call, and rolls dice, and right now, team turd is getting it pants kicked real hard, just butt hurt on each play from scrimmage, and desperately needs a hail mary play before time is called as medusa skips out of town with the booty loot.

SilverSurfers
May 24, 2013 - 10:33pm

Figuring

team turd goes in with a 13:1 advantage, which is rolling dice, and you only lose if snake eyes come up, and for 6M$ in, for at least 18m$ back in less than a year, seem like a smart business play, you bet, but what does Hatter know. And since is was requested, apparently, by the You Woodie Believer, and with the odds are so ICE COLD BABY, play it again sam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog8ou-ZepE And seeing how hatter bats 1000% as plaintiff's attorney, you get to shave the dice, and rig the game for once.

SilverSurfers
May 24, 2013 - 6:31pm

Willing

to give a Dr Willie type of a lecture to a team of players interested in taking down the manipulator, for that purpose for securing funding to do the same, probably confidentially. The last lecture by yours was at DVGU Vladiostok, teaching them lenenist marxist russians about market economy, the topic was on Intellectual Property, but since that dog and pony show, school has been out for summer.

Video unavailable
wouldyoubelieve...
May 24, 2013 - 4:52pm

@ Mad5Hatter

trolls don't bother me, but Vanilla Ice??!!!!!!!!! %^@%#*@Q$#*@^$#(@&*^#!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SilverSurfers
May 24, 2013 - 4:48pm

GATA

Chris Powell of GATA and Bill Murphy of LEMETROPOLECAFE would be a good replacement for KWNs and a backup publication play, per that attack plan, maybe even a concurrent communication line to the folks waving flags proudling and singing in old yellars, stay flexible, maybe one out of the tend and the other in the windy city with respective support staffs, one of the local yokel, the other the shark school.

The Four Tops - Baby I Need Your Loving
The O'Jays Use Ta Be My Girl
The Doobie Brothers - What a fool believes
SilverSurfers
May 24, 2013 - 2:03pm

Noticing

them all by email serves many purposes. "Sam and AE Admin, I sincerely appreciate your patience, thanks much, and the moving to TT did not affect the link going global now, so the marketing plan with subtle teasers, still works just find, and what this does, is put on line to whom got the teaser, and thus, notice, and they can not later claim ignorance, as it is time stamped and on line for all to see. " Just Noticing.

Marketing KISS of The Secret World of Gold

TF metal folks finally getting suspicious. A good indicator that the target has no clue, a good thing. Using Astro Empires Forum for indirect communications.

Bullion Space: T Ferguson 2ed Target Package Posted segmented TF direct by email; J Embry 2ed Target Package through Dark Mole; Sinclair Teaser; Livermore Teaser; Rickards Teaser; Kirby Teaser; Russell Teaser; Pento Teaser, Doctor Teaser; Murphy Teaser; Powell Teaser; Turk Teaser; Greyerz Teaser; Hathaway Teaser; Eveillard Teaser; Leeb Teaser; Sprott Teaser; Rule Teaser; Faber Teaser; Grandich Teaser, Political Space: Ron Paul Congressman Teaser; Paul Criag Roberts Teaser; D Issa Congressman Teaser; J Campbell Congressman Teaser, GOP Teaser; PastorLindsey; Schiff Teaser; Neveller; Rogers; Williams, and, News Space: Hunter Teaser; King Teaser; Keiser Teaser; Celente Teaser; Durban Teaser; Barnes Teaser; Waltzek Teaser; Grant Teaser; OReilly Teaser; Daughty Teaser; Bonner Teaser; Kristol Teaser; Krauthammer Teaser; Guild Teaser.

===========Teaser========================== Sir, I can take down JPManipulator, and end this nonsense.
Please carefully consider the following 3 cites as you wish.
The country needs saving, and we all must do our duties.
Most Respectfully, DM Reid BS JD
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/silversurfers
https://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=99&t=111935
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10 =========================================== https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqHp3tOj870
SilverSurfers
May 24, 2013 - 8:35am

Doubting

toms, the world is full of them, Silly Putty included, but who will step up, if not yourself? You have to do what you honestly believe, and duty calls, your maker watches your acts, sincerity must rule, and your promises kept, because, if you are not true to yourself, you are a loser from the git. Forward on, as best able. VC is not one of Silly Putty's worlds, but will do the best able, so help me GOD.

Marketing KISS of The Secret World of Gold

Just keeping it straight, TF metal folks finally getting suspicious. A good indicator that the target has no clue, a good thing. Using Astro Empires Forum for indirect communications, as those people have absolutely no clues.

Bullion Space: T Ferguson 2ed Target Package Posted segmented TF direct by email; J Embry 2ed Target Package through Dark Mole; Sinclair Teaser; Livermore Teaser; Rickards Teaser; Kirby Teaser; Russell Teaser; Pento Teaser, Doctor Teaser; Murphy Teaser; Powell Teaser; Turk Teaser; Greyerz Teaser; Hathaway Teaser; Eveillard Teaser; Leeb Teaser; Sprott Teaser; Rule Teaser, Political Space: Ron Paul Teaser; Paul Criag Roberts Teaser; D Issa Congressman Teaser; J Campbell Congressman Teaser, GOP Teaser; PastorLindsey; Schiff Teaser, and, News Space: Hunter Teaser; King Teaser; Keiser Teaser; Celente Teaser; Durban Teaser; Barnes Teaser; Waltzek Teaser; Grant Teaser; OReilly Teaser; Daughty Teaser; Bonner Teaser.

===========Teaser========================== Sir, I can take down JPManipulator, and end this nonsense.
Please carefully consider the following 3 cites as you wish.
The country needs saving, and we all must do our duties.
Most Respectfully, DM Reid BS JD
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/silversurfers
https://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=99&t=111935
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10 ===========================================

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