A Broader Perspective

Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


May 27, 2013 - 11:11pm


Have attack plan, 3rd Edition, looking for 6m$ for 6mo to take down manipulator, and sure there are problems, first offering 2x 18m$ in one year, so, at least it enters the business world, and gold heavies dream time, and news like to stay on top of thinks, and politician want to be re-elected, and have put out notices there, so that is the pool of possible investors and leads. Some have been transmitted, and that is in process, and here, like lighting the light bulb, tfmr is a total info rush, and made it happen, and now the repeat performance, so, presently scanning threads for leads to send teasers to invest in the shoot out of all time. TBTJ is a freakin joke played on us all. That shits stops now.

The approach is a system engineering one, not a typical VC hunt using the menlopark VC boys, been there, done that. Sure the draft is a difficult read, but if someone first gets it, read it, comprehends it, then that one would be considered as a serious player, which tends to rules out most of those at TFMR, so far, but you never know, surprises can happen,

If you all can post letters from investment houses, or videos of such, or from gold heavies, that would be much appreciated, as I will pick it up as a lead, regularly scanning threads, as a VC hunt, at least. Investment houses and big gold heavies should have teams qualified to review, and hence the more likely to get it, totally.

Some may ridicule, for whatever reason, I strive undaunted, as best able, using the thinker, as best able, one man's best, under the circumstances, following a dream, to shut down the manipulator, but now at least, there is a real documented attack plan in hand, and that, not to long ago, was in fact only a dream.

Spent 3 weeks since brainwave 4/29/13 getting attack play together, another week getting the VC hunt system down, and so, the VC hunt beings in earnest this month after memorial day.

Do You Believe in Magic?
Steppenwolf - Born to be wild 1969
Hot Chocolate - I believe in miracles + lyrics
Hot Chocolate-Everyone's A Winner
May 27, 2013 - 5:41pm


head is a madusa, and someone should arrange a date between the star and the madusa, because, at least one thinks the gig is simply irresistible, being addicted to love. All have a great vacation while crimex slow boats going into china open, hope london wings like a pendulum do. Hatter wont let anyone down, swear to GOD.

Robert Palmer - Simply Irresistible
Robert Palmer - Addicted To Love
Video unavailable

Dear Lord, all praise be yours, and in your infinite mercy, show us all the light and strength to smite the foe, for all glory is yours, and forgive us all our sins, in Jesus name, Amen.

Video unavailable

Cant survive, cant stay alive, without your love, just so pumped uped, so please please, dont leave me this way! I am your loverboy!!! Enjoy your vacations.

Loverboy - Turn Me Loose (Video)
May 27, 2013 - 3:56pm

Believe II

it totally, there was reason why lead counsel "sure shot" from the windy city was selected as a litigating patent attorney and tent case front face man, with star as the plaintiff as the public face man, whereas as hatter is just "of counsel", a loose cannon, poor, poor thing, firing huge mega death nails, while walking a very thin line, being shady at best. See how it all squares up? Whereas dead ringer and foot shooter have exchange expertis and and commodities business expertise. Totally works. With loppilpop as local yoke, and head knocker as rear guard yoke, back ups to each other in general discovery. Totally Works. TOTALLY

It is like planning 3 years to graduate at UC Belerley Engineering, where JC is first visited for lower division general stuff, 19 units while working 40 hours a week at a car wash, starting early and through summer, always, 12 months a year in, normal for the space cadet, then State College for math and science as sophomore while other just starting , and UC as a Junior, while others still in lower division, for the heavy engineering and then bang it out, totally. Folks did not have the bread, so 3 year plan developed at age 15. Plan it out, up front, totally, and then execute.

Piece of Cake.

But starting JC with 19 units, while others left in high school, while working at the car wash, was easy actually, and had to, folks did not have the bread, no choice. Do what you have to do, to get it done, always.

Video unavailable
May 27, 2013 - 2:56pm

List II

In papers filed, use short versions so as to save paper lenght where it really counts, such as, "the defendants and each of them, herein after simply as defendants" and thus, may use "defendats" thereafter without repeating "and each of them", for shorten general allegations saving space for targeted substance in all filed papers, and the courts like the brevity and focusing on just the facts mama.

May 27, 2013 - 11:30am


it or not, Patent Law, Engineering Design, Military Science and Anamolous Psychology are key in taking down the manipulator. Thats the fact jack.

Razzle-Dazzle at Graduation - Stripes (8/8) Movie CLIP (1981) HD
May 27, 2013 - 10:35am


for nuts. MOPE peeps, judge, US Government, and agencies, turning all on the manipulator, that rat bastard, the wall street mob boss. Andy Dandy shows prima facie price targeting and manipulation. Star shows COT data fingering the Manipulator. Hyena show likely internal In house and Clients funds, for prima faci inference sufficient, but also for the setup, to get them to divulge nefarious internal business operation. Hence, direct proximal causation shown during the shoot out of all times. Irreparable injury to bugs, for injunctive relief. Injunctive relief in terms of staggered pools, time displaced sells, staggered FIFO, avoiding gross sell amounts and positions prohibitions, without any wiggle room for any dodge. Shut them down, easy and quick, hard and fast. Of course, back up sluggers and auxiliary appearances can replace or support, and then, pass case off to US Justice after shut down, to put snake and medusa behind bars. Get it?

May 27, 2013 - 9:57am


got to know ones place, trud as star, is perfect, for ice breaking, smushen the rock stars and gold heavies and torpedoes, to get them on line, with those polite people skills, whereas Hatter can be a ruthless vicious sob, calling things matter of factly, no punches pulled, like in your face, so the star is perfect as face man visiting all the skeptical tri delts for the dates.

The face man holding cerberus on a leash. Its works, big time.

May 27, 2013 - 7:49am


China hit nearly 22, kind of unusual for china, new normal, 24 hours rock and roll.

May 26, 2013 - 11:09pm
May 26, 2013 - 8:35pm


Great posts are indeed great, and much appreciated by nearly all, nearly, but dont you think in the scheme of big things, of which everyone really complains, and that concerns most, they dont really solve much, excepting providing some comradery and supporting mutual comfort and mutual back slapping, that misery loves company? Just asking.

Price manipulation produces a lack of price discovery. A lack of price discover is irreparable harm and causes some civil tort monetary damage, to any one who holds an AGE or ASE, or who holds any amount of precious bullion specie, or in the precious metals trade who transacts any buys, sells, serves the public, publication, retail, wholesale, and is undue influence upon the US government agency, the US mint, and when acting with another, is not only an actionable civil tort and RICO claim, but specifically, a RICO crime against the US Government agency US Mint offering jail time to the offenders of such price manipulation. Just saying.

Speaking Plainly: I am offering to take down the manipulator within 6mo and need 6m$ in funding to do so, to enjoin and terminate their habitual price manipulations, and hand US Justice a criminal case on a silver platter, and if anyone would like to PM with a name(s) by email address of anyone interested in funding such with a multiple return, it would be much appreciated, as I tend to seek solutions, rather than back slaps. Just asking.

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Forum Discussion

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