A Broader Perspective

Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 31, 2013 - 10:59pm


The Fixx - Driven Out
The Fixx - Red Skies (Original 1982 Version)
The Fixx - Saved By Zero
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May 31, 2013 - 10:11pm


The proposed case has little to do with Banking, Finance, Economics, Anti-trust and Position Limits, such like, other than to show Wall Street undue influence upon US Government using simple judicial notice facts and flaboyant arguements, and so, focus, its a go for the throat, quick and hard, using simple stupid tort action and injunctions.

May 31, 2013 - 9:43pm

Permit II

Lollipop may place big bang and shut out ad is local paper, radio, and TV depending, three amigos can do the same there for the rally MOPE

The Lone Ranger Opening Theme Song
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Listen to her Heart, Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers
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Maybe I can be of some assistance. Fair markets exist only where random buyers and random sellers collide to produce honest price discovery, and where any entity distorts that collision, market rigging can occur and price discovery is distorted, and so, you have to get injunctions on the public records, based on that, and solid without any wiggle room for the dodge, to ensure that, that collision is maintained. I hope that helps, because Im nice that way.

May 31, 2013 - 1:47pm


This is real, good to go. Jesus said live poor, need 6m$ for 6mo & you get 18m$ back. Any Help?

Rickard, Sprott Morgan Sinclair Casey Greyerz Faber Whalen Keiser Jesse Hinde Turk Bonner Durban Gross Dines Murphy Powell

May 31, 2013 - 9:06am
May 31, 2013 - 4:15am


Brainwave, add cause of action G, Self Dealings, which is a breach of fiduciary against share holders of manipulator, thus turning those share holders upon the manipulator, for support in the cause, for possible financial support and follow on multiple law suits by share actions against the manipulator for using client money to price manipulate, thus clients did not get FMV during cascades downward in the price, and just butthurt them.

May 30, 2013 - 5:38pm


at andy dany input data set for clues as who the who it, COT should finger defendants, confirm by a look through andy dandy's looking glass, where alorithims are child play to silly, for the who blues clues, certaiting the data set reveal is some measure who is price rigging and or front running. Find Video about early should front running small tics in advance of huge spikes, and compare to andy dantys data sets for blues clues.

May 30, 2013 - 5:25pm


is loaded by his bent on the US Gov, which is totally the wrong play under the tent, but attack on wall street are perfect. He would required allot of coaching to get him to focus on the defendants in wall street, and economists are not really needed, but bullion experts are. Nonetheless, if coached well, he could be a great general back up slugger. He like ALL others propose Band aides, not lasting solutions.

Broken Brokerage and Goliath Hunter are code names.

May 30, 2013 - 12:39pm


Marketing KISS of The Secret World of Gold

TF metal folks getting suspicious, as a good indicator that the target has no clue, a good thing, mean while, ising Astro Empires Forum for indirect communications.

Plan worked out pretty good with defined HQ facilities, command and control, support facilities, communication lines, logistics, front line forces, auxiliary forces, attack plan, looks really good, and needs now funding (supply lines) to financier but with VC hunt system on line and working, and then on to execution, 6m$ and 6mo, and torpedoes away for the greatest take down of all time turning 6m$ VC into 18m$ 2x, in less than a year, taking down JPM in the bullion space.

Bullion Space: T Ferguson 2ed Target Package Posted segmented TF direct by email; J Embry 2ed Target Package through Dark Mole; Sinclair Teaser; Livermore Teaser; Rickards Teaser; Kirby Teaser; Russell Teaser; Pento Teaser, Doctor Teaser; Murphy Teaser; Powell Teaser; Turk Teaser; Greyerz Teaser; Hathaway Teaser; Eveillard Teaser; Leeb Teaser; Sprott Teaser; Rule Teaser; Faber Teaser; Grandich Teaser, Gross Clue, ElErian Clue; MHommell Clue; Butler Clue; Norcini; Willie, Political Space: Ron Paul Congressman Teaser; Paul Criag Roberts Teaser; D Issa Congressman Teaser; J Campbell Congressman Teaser, Brennan Clue; GOP Teaser; PastorLindsey Teaser; Schiff Teaser; Neveller; Warren Clue; Rogers Teaser; Grave Teaser, JWilliams: GWilliams, and, News Space: Hunter Teaser; King Teaser; Keiser Teaser; Celente Teaser; Durban Teaser; Barnes Teaser; Waltzek Teaser; Grant Teaser; OReilly Teaser; Daughty Teaser; Bonner Teaser; Kristol Teaser; Krauthammer Teaser; Guild Teaser.
Sir, I can take down JPManipulator, and end this nonsense.
Please carefully consider the following 3 cites as you wish.
The country needs saving, and we all must do our duties.
Most Respectfully, Derrick Michael Reid BS JD
=========== Teaser plus following Equals Clue === Code Names ======
Nutshell for nuts. MOPE peeps, judge, US Government, and agencies, turning all on the manipulator, that rat bastard, the wall street mob boss. Andy Dandy shows prima facie price targeting and manipulation. Star shows COT data fingering the Manipulator. Hyena shows likely internal use of In house and Clients funds, for prima faci inference sufficient, but also for the setup, to get them to divulge nefarious internal business operation. Hence, direct proximal causation shown during the shoot out of all times. Irreparable injury to bugs, for injunctive relief. Injunctive relief in terms of staggered pools, walls, time displaced sells, staggered FIFO, avoiding gross sell amounts and positions prohibitions, without any wiggle room for any dodge. Shut them down, easy and quick, hard and fast. Of course, back up sluggers and auxiliary appearances can replace or support, and then, pass case off to US Justice after shut down, to put snake and medusa behind bars, but, need 6m$ VC for 6mo.


Rock N' Roll All Night ( Good Quality ) - Kiss
May 29, 2013 - 10:17pm

Killer II

Brainwave, show that price targeting using some client funds, and in the drop, clients dont get FMV for positions sold, then show that during spikes down, part of the recovery is in house funds, and thus, target hangs clients out to dry while profiting on in house money, easy to proved by spike time lows +/- in house sells, and just nail the target, and expose the self center dealings, hanging clients out to dry, during criminal price manipulations for bottom line inhouse profits, freaking dead meat. If they realize what is going on, target may settle right after big bang with the people moped to tears, their dog meat, in an absolute bad A$$ thriller.

Video unavailable
Michael Jackson - Bad (Shortened Version)
Michael Jackson - Beat It (Official Video)
Michael Jackson - The Way You Make Me Feel (Official Video)
Michael Jackson - Off The Wall - Rock With You
Michael Jackson - Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough (Michael Jackson The Experience) [WII]

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