A Broader Perspective

Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Jun 2, 2013 - 12:57pm


so, if you want to take down the evil empire, and end this TBTF TBTJ greedster bankster nonsense, so that all the folks wins, four primary questions need to be answered first, and they are: 1) Who to Strike; 2) Where to Strike; 3) How to Strike; and 4) What skills are needed for the Strike, for the winning slam dunk touch down.

Video unavailable
Steelers Renegade AFC Championship game 2011

Question remains, can the gold heavies play Raider Football?

Just win baby

Simply stated, if funded for 6M$, with 18m$ back to the funder, yours can QB a team, and shut down the manipulator in the bullion space, within 4 months of funding, and settle within 6 months.

Jun 2, 2013 - 12:42pm


turd, B Murphy joining you as co-stars, for the COT report, was a huge git. Sweet. And personally, a huge pump up to the heart.

One comment for those interested. There are two primary reasons why mere phone calls can negotiate and cement mega bullion deals over the phone, the clues lie in having a history and having ones word that is rock solid and kept come heck or high water.

Jun 2, 2013 - 12:40pm


a break, right. But, if anyone would volunteer for editor, after I give it 10 passes, that would be appreciated, confidentiality though.

I need a break,,,,,,,,,,, after four years on the bench. LMAO!!!! Im ready to rock and roll. Thoreau eat your heart out. And it would be special to do it for Bill, a dream come true, before we both ride off into the sunset, so he is designated back up star, if one be needed, as I hear them texasians come with six shooters and are quick on the draw.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvV3nn_de2k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEqUyNaSdvg
Jun 2, 2013 - 12:35pm


Murphy is always great with his take on things. And COT data provides many clues, and am glad that Trud and Bill provide us with their take, and that is a great data point to have, a valued input.

I have listen to many complain about the naked shorts for many years, and it seems that it wont stop. So, the reset offer all those with bullion in hand to succeed eventually in time. What about poor without bullion geting zero in an economic basket case fall out, or inflation rates on fixed income people, who cant make it, during that greatest transfer of wealth. Is that really a noble thought. Why not take down the evil empire and free all with high economic output and freedom, so everyone wins.

I am hoping for a COT flip as the signal that things have changed for destroying the FRN, because it is believed that TPTB use taxes and paper money to control, and maintain a lock on power. So, in my estimation, the FRN is the enemy. I see the JP and others out trying to make a buck, even though if feeds the maintenance of the FRN, so the manipulators, out for a buck, are not the friend of the people. There is a possibily of private hands buying bullion to over run them, but it seems that has played out long enough. And so, trapped are the people in the control of totalitarians, and its getting worst, not better, as more and more laws are constructed, as the IRS and FRN means pervade. It seems as though its an endless struggle, and keeping an eye out on the COT give clues.

After so long eye balling, and believe in my heart that a plan has finally been devised to rock the manipulators and shut them down, and let price discovery come back, but feel helpless and impatience. So, that its. As long as the FED can funnel FRN into the manipulators, they can go naked and control. And so the next step is, what if there is no physical, no more to push the price down, they still can control. I was thinking today about how to lock down the manipulator, so they are given no wiggle room in avoiding an injunction, and thought of passing money to 3rd parties, which then come in as supposed clients, and that, I end up where I was years ago, I have to go back to 3 years ago about, proposing the ending of naked shorts in the bullion space, physical or forwards only, because bullion and the FRN are money, but not other commodities. And it seems like creative games can be created, unless they are enjoined, even after they are supposedly over run. I am afraid that first watching the fort, and then the COT, and then demands, that that will not be the end of it, that it could go on as long as they can print, which they can, thinking basically the manipulators have to be shut down, at least in my life time. The coasts, East and West are locked up by money interests, sharks, greedster, and banksters. Only a strike now in a gun toting state offers the people any chance of shutting down these crimes and saving what is left of the country, and that is what is being proposed, but realize it is a novel approach, so stalemate and frustration is what is felt, while a last chance to really do something may be slipping away.

They have many looking at COT reports, and that is good information, but I am not so sure that even with supply all gone, that demand prices will be allowed to go up and to have a reset. So, I sit, with an attack plan. I thought it through.

Bill and Turd offer valuable insight to COT analysis, and today I questioned myself if another decade of waiting is in the cards for a COT flip, and if it happens, is anything really changed by it, can they maintain price controls. Now many think it will enter a state of absolute totalitarian control, then why bother now with good COT data, if they control all any way? If it will play out in the totalitarian end game, the COT data, while providing a market data point now, dont solve the political questions.

So, the end of all this is that COT by bill and turd are value indicators of the state of affairs in term of market action. But if the paper printers can print in perpetuity, and if totalitarianism is the projected outcome, we need to strike, strike now, and strike hard and fast. And we at least have a plan, that no one seems interested in, except one.

How is the fort doing, I dont know, but believe its a national secret, but wondering if there any new delevopments on front. We went through GS lovering position, and JP took over. We went through EU CB selling and then switching to buying, and what, so they reloaded? Now Europe of burning, until starvation takes overs, and the people return to work. When the price got bombed and the mine disaster taking out supply, the COT did not flip, and that was major clue. It did not happen, as it aught to. So, its not COT. Its not the WGA. Its not the supply. Its not the Fort. Its Not the EU burning. Its political, and there are the national RNC and DNC controlling bodies, and its seems that is where the focus should be. And in the USA, there are 3 branches, all three of which are locked up on the coasts, but there is a middle section holding the line, having 1 branch not looking to elections, and in that1 branch in that one area, there maybe an opportunity to strike the EE.

The propose plan can be replicated by anyone, it not really difficult, just novel. But, the consequence of the plan and propose action discredits paper, and the central bank paper pushers start falling, one by one, and hence, the objective is not really the manipulator, per se, but the follow on consequences, and that is FREEDOM from the paper pushers, and that means, FREEDOM from the EE. The manipulator in the case proposed is simply the weak commercial link, where to strike, to start the dominoes falling one by one.

Jun 2, 2013 - 12:28pm


teachers, get out your party hats and horn. I am taking a dump. Next job is to conform the attack plan, all 500 pages worth, woooophiiieeeeeee, to structured english and grammar, so it can be smoothy read by anyone, even turdites. Which should be a snap actually, now that it done, the pressure if off, the security pressure is off, and I got the time, whereas before it had to just out, as my personal notes, sort of with security coding while drafting, producting a very difficult read. Thank God for find and replace, eh? But as long as Nicholson can edit at light speed, being a werewolf, so can I, having been bitten. So give it till end of week, say, next monday ready, to have a polished document, well organized, well written, in proper English, and about 300 pages

Eiffel 65 - One Goal

B. Murphy making a camieo in turdville, reminds me of a first love, when GS and WGA were all the rage five years ago, but now I got goose pimples all over, made my day, actually, its love, I guess, no other word for it, and his appearance has me just so pumped for job at hand.

Jun 1, 2013 - 11:55am


Can be required to Report to circus of permitted injunction gross sales and forwards, which adds to logistic value, and may cause then to leave the bullion space entire.

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Van Halen-When it's love
Rolling Stones-start me up
Loverboy - Turn Me Loose (Video)
Sammy Hagar - I Can't Drive 55 (Exclusive Video)

saw van halan with sammy about 1995, way cool.

Jun 1, 2013 - 10:05am


==== Tweets ==================
This is real, good to go. Jesus said live poor, need 6m$ for 6mo & you get 18m$ back. Any Help?

h ttp://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/05/29/freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj_greedsters.thtml
======== Teaser plus following Equals Clue by Code Names =======
Marketing KISS of The Secret World of Gold.

TF metal folks getting suspicious, as a good indicator that the target has no clue, a good thing, mean while, using Astro Empires Forum for indirect communications.

Plan worked out pretty good with defined HQ facilities, command and control, support facilities, communication lines, logistics, front line forces, auxiliary forces, attack plan, looks really good, and needs now funding (supply lines) to financier but with VC hunt system on line and working, and then on to execution, 6m$ and 6mo, and torpedoes away for the greatest take down of all time turning 6m$ VC into 18m$ 2x, in less than a year, taking down JPM in the bullion space.

Bullion Space: T Ferguson 2ed Target Package Posted segmented TF direct by email; J Embry 2ed Target Package through Dark Mole; Sinclair Teaser; Livermore Teaser; Rickards Teaser; Kirby Teaser; Russell Teaser; Pento Teaser, Doctor Teaser; Murphy Teaser; Powell Teaser; Turk Teaser; Greyerz Teaser; Hathaway Teaser; Eveillard Teaser; Leeb Teaser; Sprott Teaser; Rule Teaser; Faber Teaser; Grandich Teaser, Gross Clue, ElErian Clue; MHommell Clue; Butler Clue; Norcini; Willie; Fekete Clue; Jaitly Clue; Dines Clue, Economical and Political Space: Guild Clue; Ron Paul Congressman Teaser; Paul Criag Roberts Teaser; D Issa Congressman Teaser; J Campbell Congressman Teaser, Brennan Clue; GOP Teaser; PastorLindsey Teaser; Schiff Teaser; Neveller; Warren Clue; Ryan Clue; Rogers Teaser; Grave Teaser, JWilliams: GWilliams; Whalen Clue, and, News Space: Hunter Teaser; King Teaser; Santelli Clue; Keiser Teaser; Celente Teaser; Durban Teaser; Barnes Teaser; Waltzek Teaser; Grant Teaser; OReilly Teaser; Daughty Teaser; Bonner Teaser; Kristol Teaser, Krauthammer Teaser.
Sir, I can take down JPManipulator, and end this nonsense.
Please carefully consider the following 3 cites as you wish.
The country needs saving, and we all must do our duties.
Most Respectfully, Derrick Michael Reid BS JD
=========== Teaser plus following Equals Clue === Code Names ======
Nutshell for nuts. MOPE peeps, judge, US Government, and agencies, turning all on the manipulator, that rat bastard, the wall street mob boss. Andy Dandy shows prima facie price targeting and manipulation. Star shows COT data fingering the Manipulator. Hyena shows likely internal use of In house and Clients funds, for prima faci inference sufficient, but also for the setup, to get them to divulge nefarious internal business operation. Hence, direct proximal causation shown during the shoot out of all times. Irreparable injury to bugs, for injunctive relief. Injunctive relief in terms of staggered pools, walls, time displaced sells, staggered FIFO, avoiding gross sell amounts and positions prohibitions, without any wiggle room for any dodge. Shut them down, easy and quick, hard and fast. Of course, back up sluggers and auxiliary appearances can replace or support, and then, pass case off to US Justice after shut down, to put snake and medusa behind bars, but, need 6m$ VC for 6mo, Kiss Rock and Roll All Night, Spinnners Working My Way Back.

Rock N' Roll All Night ( Good Quality ) - Kiss
The Spinners Working My Way Back To You Girl
Jun 1, 2013 - 9:51am


precision torpedoes and sluggers

Sandeep Jaitly Beach Jade aka Jaunty Sands
Professor Fekete Fickled Professor aka Professor Fetish

Fetish is not good for live testimony, just too damn smart, old and random, but his resume is outstanding.

Jaitly is a winner, young, articulate, knows his stuff, and could even be a primary torpedo.

Jun 1, 2013 - 1:50am


HQ auxileries included the turdville army kows at the hatter arm in code, to rock at advisotrs to hatter passing off ball between competions, no fumbling allow. first up will be to watch opposing players.

Mel & Tim - Backfield In Motion (1969)

many years ago, proposed rules prohibited naked sales, it seems a necessary plays, seet CTFC jurisdiction rules, national defense imparitives rules the circus master.

The Spinners Working My Way Back To You Girl

all short sales can not be naked, requires actualy possession, crimex clean up, at an exchange or in possession of the sellers. possible minor application to long side

why not others, because FRN and bullion are considered MONEY, teir one assets. so bullion space requires no naked sales/buy, cover up, go long or short, its the only way to be sure.

May 31, 2013 - 11:53pm


No naked short sales. Moneys can be transferred on the sly to 3rd party, then placing orders to sale naked, thus target sales apparent 3rd clients, which is the same as using in house money, so, to present wiggle room, short sales are fine, if you got the stuff to sale, so injunctive relief prohibits naked sells, to prevent the wiggle room.

nake short sale prohibition, and transfer motions, defeated by undue influence, last of price discovery, the system in NY is broke and defective, reason and rational, to prevent transfer

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The Spinners Working My Way Back To You Girl

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Forum Discussion

by Spartacus Rex, Dec 4, 2020 - 10:57pm
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