A Broader Perspective

525
Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

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SilverSurfers
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:17pm

Begging Tears

GOP Leadership

You all want a Majority in the Senate and 2/3 lock on the House in 2014?

I can and will do for you all, with a little help. Sincerely. Derrick Michael Reid

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/03/usa_nova_slang.thtml

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/05/29/freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj_greedsters.thtml

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/06/usa_strike_on_the_evil_empire.thtml

Damn it Turd, you put me tears. Thanks

Ronald Reagan- "Tear Down This Wall"
JFK Ask Not What Your Country Can Do For You
"Berlin Wall" Speech - President Reagan's Address at the Brandenburg Gate - 6/12/87
John F. Kennedy's speech in Berlin
Normandy Speech: Ceremony Commemorating the 40th Anniversary of the Normandy Invasion, D-Day 6/6/84

Not many of us left, but a living memory can bring you to tears, totally.

SilverSurfers
Jun 6, 2013 - 10:55am

Rats in the cellar.

On a not so happy Tuesday, I just tickled red, to see China so accommodating last night to get the price lower, to help out the manipulator, who manage to push silver to three bottoms, on the crimex, suspected use of client money, for the push down, yeah screw the clients, and at those bottoms, suspected using in house money to buy it low, since they knew where it was going anyway, and as china drifts back up, during globex, while the manipulator traitorously unloads the booty bought for dump into china arms, and thus china gets the physical and the manipulator scores on the in house bottom line, while hanging clients out the dry, and echos of “sorry man”, “tuff luck” is heard over the background CDMA signals, but physical is required to play that game, china only wants the real stuff, none of that paper stuff, but, how long will it last, so, how much physical remains in GLD and the Crimex anyway. Just asking. Got into Lemet, so can fish out those two memos, of days gone by, in LePatran and Rants threads, as mental refreshers.

Not so happy wednesday.. Smelling a traitorous rat greedsters and an open arms puppeteer, conspiring, china is decreasing, again.

Greedsters: TBTF TBTJ Bullion Banks Flushing Traders, and Crimex Riggers Traitorously Selling.

Puppeteers: Goldman Socks and Tinananmen Squares

There are rats in the cellar, taking us a round and round.

Video unavailable
SilverSurfers
Jun 5, 2013 - 12:26pm

Mind

screw, poor poor Greg Hunter at USA watch dog. My three posts are still for moderation, after what, 6 hours. Ever hear of cut bait or fish, LMAO, poor guy, aint use to shock jock stuff, not like the veteran Turd, he lets it fly, completely off the handle. LMAO Trudville is so great, you call the bad guys on it, any time.

Peter Gabriel - Shock The Monkey
SilverSurfers
Jun 5, 2013 - 12:05pm

Easy

on the Jidhad comedian, loose cannons are the hall mark of very high intelligence, and it just gets fired off time to time, from to rapid associations of the brain function, especially where fun is totally involved. Hes a keeper.

Robin Trower - The Fool and Me.

Speaking of the fitful Cat

Robin Trower - Bridge Of Sighs - 07 - Lady Love

Hi Ho Yo Yo. Silver on the move, yeah baby, are not you all glad, tickled red, the manipulator loaded the boat in london?

The Bullion Space Riggers

Robin Trower - Bridge of Sighs

We need a Hi Ho Silver Strike

Robin Trower - Bridge of Sighs - 01 - Day Of The Eagle

Its a party hat, happy Wednesday, I guess.

SilverSurfers
Jun 5, 2013 - 8:43am

Comprehesive Set II

USA Nova Slang

Posted by Derrick Michael Reid on Monday, June 03, 2013 4:23:25 PM

Just in case you aint hip to the latest slang sweeping the nation, thought a list, to set your mind straight, might be in order. Enjoy

Crimex: The NY Comex exchange

COT: Commitment of Thieves

Banksters: Wall Street ATMs Paying Out Obscene Bonuses

Greedsters: TBTF TBTJ Bullion Banks Flushing Traders, Crimex Rigging Selling Traitors and Undue Influencers

Holy Spinners: US Corrupt Politicians and Farcical Habitual Campaigners

Black Robe Reapers: US Corrupt Judiciary and Plain Language Interpreters

Double Dutch Bus: The Honorable Legal Profession Seeking Currency At All Costs

Sharks: Self Interested Litigators with Clients Seen Coming

Smear Merchants: Main Stream Media Anchors profiting on Libel and Slander

Gaucha Pundits: Communists profiting off Innocence and Harmless Errors

Ponzi Coupons: Irredeemable Federal Reserve Notes

Mouseketeers: US Governments Agencies, Justice, FED Bank, and CFTC

Totalitarians: USSA Government Administration, DNC and RNC

Bullion Riggers: John Pierpont Manipulator and Hideous Sperpentine Bozo Clowns

Puppeteers: Goldman Socks and Tinananmen Squares

Enslavers: IRS, RICO Thugs, Pick Pocketeers, Privacy Spies, Highway Robbers, USSSA, USDA, Poor Entrappers, Circus Masters, and Bread Throwers

Gold Bugs: Freedom Lovers, Turdites, Le Menu Readers, Austrian Economists, Real Money Believers, Plain Language Constitutionalists, Republic Restorers, Libertarians, and Bonnie Blue Flag Waivers

Paper Pushers: Central Bank Currency Printers, Kenynesian Economists and Debtor Prison Wardens

One Percenters: Greedsters and Banksters and Diamond Backed Snakes and She Head Madusas

Ninety Nine Percenters: Tax Mules and State Dependents

Monsters: Freedom Fighters Locked and Loaded with 500 Rounds Each

Pump Machine: How Now Dow Cows, Paper Printers, and Feel Good Be Happy Crowds

Reality Rates: TARP ZIRP QE Kaplops, Negative Bond Fools, Stagnant Joe Six Packs, and Busted Moms and Pops

MOPEd Dopes: USSA Statistics Believers and Foolish Economists

Extremists: Freedom Lovers, Gold Bugs, Freedom Fighters, Plain Language Constitutionalists, Libertarians, and Old Glory Waivers

Gang of Four: WW and the Printers and Thugs, FDR and the Raw Deal, LBJ and the Corrupt Society, and BHO and the Ponzi Scheme

Hue and Cry: Tax and Spend, Take and Give, Inflate and Rob, Incentivize and Control, and Socialize and Corrupt

Slogan: Vote em Out or Take em Out, for a Free Lunch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kE6ZU-OPTc

This post is dedicated to Mr Greg Hunter of USA Watch Dog dot com. https://usawatchdog.com/

SilverSurfers
Jun 4, 2013 - 12:53pm

Comprehensive Set

USA Nova Slang

Posted by Derrick Michael Reid on Monday, June 03, 2013 4:23:25 PM

Just in case you aint hip to the lastest slang sweeping the nation, thought a list, to set your mind straight, might be in order. Enjoy

Crimex: The NY Comex exchange

COT: Commitment of Thieves

Banksters: Wall Street ATMs getting Obscene Bonuses

Greedsters: TBTF TBTJ Bullion Banks Flushing Traders, and Crimex Riggers Traitorously Selling.

Holy Spinners: US Corrupt Politicians and Farcical Habitual Campaigners

Black Robe Reapers: US Corrupt Judiciary and Plain Language Interpreters

Double Dutch Bus: The Honorable Legal Profession Seeking Currency At All Costs

Sharks: Self Interested Litigators with Clients Seen Coming

Smear Merchants: Main Stream Media Anchors profiting on Libel and Slander

Gaucha Pundits: Communists profiting off Innocence and Harmless Errors

Ponzi Coupons: Irredeemable Federal Reserve Notes

Mouseketeers: US Governments Agencies, Justice, FED Bank, CFTC

Totalitarians: USSA Government Administration, DNC and RNC

Bullion Riggers: JPManipulator and HolyShitBastardClowns

Puppeteers: GoldmanSucks and TinananmenSquares

Enslavers: IRS, RICO Thugs, Pick Pocketeers, Privacy Spies, Highway Robbers, USSSA, USDA, Poor Entrappers, Circus Masters, and Bread Throwers

Gold Bugs: Freedom Lovers, Turdites, Austrian Economists, Real Money Believers, Plain Language Constitutionalists, Republic Restorers, Libertarians, and Bonnie Blue Flag Waivers

Paper Pushers: Central Bank Currency Printers, Kenynesian Economists and Debtor Prison Wardens

One Percenters: Greedsters and Banksters and Diamond Backed Snakes and She Head Madusas

Ninety Nine Percenters: Tax Mules and State Dependents

Monsters: Freedom Fighters Locked and Loaded with 500 Rounds Each

Pump Machine: How Now Dow Cows, Paper Printers, and Feel Good Be Happy Crowds

Reality Rates: TARP ZIRP QE KAPLOPS, Negative Bond Fools, Stagnant Joe Six Packs, and Busted Mom and Pops

MOPEd Dopes: USSA Statistics Believers and Foolish Economists

Extremists: Freedom Lovers, Gold Bugs, Freedom Fighters, Plain Language Constitutionalists, Libertarians, and Old Glory Waivers

Gang of Four: WW and the Printers and Thugs, FDR and the Raw Deal, LBJ and the Corrupt Society, and BHO and the Ponzi Scheme

Hue and Cry: Tax and Spend, Take and Give, Inflate and Rob, Incentivize and Control, and Socialize and Corrupt

Frankie Smith - Double Dutch Bus
SilverSurfers
Jun 4, 2013 - 9:51am

Songs

Video unavailable
Video unavailable
Belinda Carlisle - Heaven Is A Place On Earth
Video unavailable
Frankie Smith - Double Dutch Bus (Official Music Video)
SilverSurfers
Jun 3, 2013 - 10:38pm

Dark

One

Sure have, its been going on for about 9 years.

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/

I dont allow comments, as most have no clue, and would rather not waste time on pea brains.

---

to whom it may concern, double dutch email tag dont work, snooze ya lose.

yeah baby, just slice through 22, rock and roll!!!

But Yeah, I promised, keeping legs crossed in laguna tuna, shady at best.

---

Regulators are just sad saks, told them 4 years ago how to do it.

Must be in the dist rag, the US constitution about regulating interstate commerce.

Found it. abolish all short sells and prevent market manipulation

---

the COT as the Commitment of Thieves.

Producers, such as miners in the bullion space can sale forwards, but this nakedness is just an obscene fraud.

But I promise, for pete's sake, I promise.

Previous post: A clue, do they reside on the east coast?

Next post: Monster just went for 2$ over, wife busting balls for bobbles, LOL.

oh meh, commitment of thieves, crimex, greedsters, banksters, fraudsters, spinners, come on guys, pitch in!! lol

SilverSurfers
Jun 3, 2013 - 10:27pm

Sorry

just reading some old stuff, and just got hot, and decided to share. I will go back on hiatus, promise.

======

Pisst at the legal profession is based on self centeredness of lawyers, and its pervasive, so in a 100 man law first, first two years, internship kind of like, and got an eye full, then broke out, and sued first corporate for patent infringement, first appearance was before a chief federal judge who enjoined them and granted several summary judgments motions, and knocking out key defenses, and shut them down, and just butchered the defense, within a few weeks of filing. That big bag should sound familiar. But representing plaintiff, we were not greedy, just an average license fee 6% and 250k cash for past infringement, easy, way easy. So they fired their lawyers, and got a 100 man firm. The were going to roll me. Six of them at $200 an hour against one at $50 an hour, 30 years ago. During discovery, saw letters from governor Dukakis, you know, the tank commander, congratulating the defendant corporation for putting so many to work.

TWO YEARS LATER, with defendant rolling up 2m$ in attorney fees, bankrupt the defendant corporation, 200 people lost their jobs, and at 3am in the morning, before trial was to start, settled up, for guess what, 6% royalty and 250K for pass damages, which of course the plaintiff never justly got but rather went into the pockets of them sharks.

Lawyers for the worst, self serving members of that most despicable profession with a licensed monopoly to dispute resolution. There is nothing honorable about them, and is why I switched from patent litigation to patent invention prosecution, because I just could not stomach being around sharks all the time.

Werewolves Of London
SilverSurfers
Jun 3, 2013 - 10:10pm

Mad III

To: Keiserreport[at]rttv[dot]ru

Max Keiser

Keiser Report

Sir , some think that your screeching on the video clips, renders you a loon. Trust me, you're a light weight. LMAO

Proposed Plan

Turd Ferguson (Bill Murphy Back Up) v JxxPxxM

to stop bullion manipulation in the USA.

Would you have an editor handy?

Would you happen to have 6m$ handy.

Yours, Derrick

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/05/29/freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj_gre...

==

FxxSxxB got the clue

McLaughlin and Buchanan got the clue

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