Here We Go Again

Mon, May 13, 2013 - 11:28am

Another week in the barrel begins. There's a lot going on so come on in.

Jeez, where do we start on this fine Monday? Maybe we should start this week where last week ended? You'll recall that, back on Thursday, some hedge fund deltabravo whom nobody had ever heard of, posted a tweet that Jon "BernankButtBoy" Hilsenrath was about to release an article discussing how The Bernank might go about "tapering" QE∞. Though clearly the real object of this scam was to talk down an overheated stock market just a bit (think Mr. Andrea Mitchell and his "Irrational Exuberance" talk back in the 90s), the impact it had on gold was instantaneous. The Comex closed on Thursday at 1:30. The offending tweet came out at about 2:00. Before gold could re-open on the Comex at 8:20 on Friday, it was down over $40. Very nice. And then, of course, in order to not dampen the spirits of the HFTs too much, the ButtBoy article didn't actually get released until after the NYSE close on Friday. The impact? As I type, gold is still down about $35 from Thursday's close. Equities, of course, are about unchanged.

And this has once again emboldened the shorts to drive price lower as they rightly feel that all of the momentum is on their side. As we start the week, the metals look almost certain to test hoped-for support, gold around $1400 and silver near $23. From there, maybe CIGA BoPelini will be right and all of this madness will end. ( That'd sure be nice but I'm not getting my hopes up too high.

If you missed my CoT summary from Friday, you can find it here: There wasn't a lot of earth-shattering stuff in there this week but I want to re-emphasize some points I made toward the end of the comment. Look at these facts:

Finally, lets once again compare the Cartel net positions of last Tuesday with The Cartel net positions of 9/11/12, just two days before the announcement of QE∞.

  • On 9/11/12, The Gold Cartel was net short 237,091 contracts. That's 23,709,100 troy ounces or a whopping 737 metric tonnes of paper gold.
  • As of last Tuesday, The Gold Cartel is net short 87,719 contracts. That's 8,771,900 troy ounces or just 272 metric tonnes of paper gold. A reduction of potential settlement obligation of over 63%.
  • On 9/11/12, The Silver Commercials were net short 47,272 contracts. That's 236,360,000 troy ounces of silver, which is a whopping 7,351 metric tonnes of paper silver or about 30% of global silver mine production for 2012.
  • As of last Tuesday, The Silver Commercials were net short 14,456 contracts. That's 72,280,000 or 2,248 metric tonnes of paper silver. A reduction in potential liability of over 69%!!
  • And finally, here's the most interesting comparison. On 9/11/12, the Silver Commercials were:

    • Long 32,206 and
    • Short 79,478

    Nearly eight months, $450B new QE dollars and $13 in silver later, the Silver Commercials are:

    • Long 65,703 (+104%) and
    • Short 80,159 (+0.85%)

    Look, I am 100% convinced that everything that has happened since mid-September of last year has been completely designed by the Bullion Banks in order to reduce/eliminate their net short positions. After the HUGE rally of August into September 2012, where silver moved from $26 to $35 and gold from $1600 to $1800, The Bernank literally caught the banks with their shorts down, unprepared for the game-changer that is QE∞. Since then, in a increasingly desperate drive to reduce their liability, the banks have successfully moved paper prices lower, even in the face of the extraordinarily strong fundamentals, by convincing the Specs to sell through coordinated raids and chart-painting. Soon the fundamentals will overwhelm everyone but look again at what the banks have been able to accomplish.

    They were net short an astounding 737 metric tonnes of paper gold at the time QE∞ was announced. As of last Tuesday, they've trimmed that liability by over 63%, all the way back to about 272 metric tonnes. Look at this another way. All the way down from $1800, the banks have been buying and covering. We're now told that the "bull market in gold is over" yet the banks continue to buy, not sell. Doesn't that tell you anything?

    Now consider silver. Yes the picture looks the same. The banks have reduced their net short position by more than 2/3 from 30% of annual silver production back to 10%. But that's not the story, now is it? Look again at the gross numbers. At $36 silver, the banks (mainly JPM) were short 80,159 contracts. As of last Tuesday, with silver at $24, the banks were short 79,478. Virtually unchanged. But look at the "other commercials", the "everyone but JPM crowd", the "raptors" as Uncle Ted calls them. When silver was $36, they were long a gross total of 32,206. As of last Tuesday, the size of that position had more than doubled to 65,703! Again, I ask you:

    • If silver is in a "bear market", why are these insiders buying?
    • As silver has been beaten lower, why have these commercials been buying and not selling?
    • Going forward, do you want to side with them or with the Large and Small Specs?
    • Which side, the commercials or the specs, will be proven right in the end?

    OK, moving on. Recall that there was much interest that the GLD had actually added metal back on Thursday. This caught nearly everyone by surprise as it was the first addition of metal since February. Well whaddayaknow. On Friday, nearly the exact same amount of metal came right back out of the GLD, leaving it with a 2-day net change of +0.18 metric tonnes. With the hammering that gold took on Friday, you can imagine that the "inventory" downtrend resume in earnest later today. For your reading pleasure, here's the latest from our pal Alasdair Macleod at GoldMoney. He has issues with GLD, too, and he cites a few of them here:

    And this is fun. I remember that not too long ago, folks like me were thought of as Loons and TinFoilHatters for suggesting that the days of dollar hegemony were numbered. Well, lookyhere. Even ole CNBS is now getting in on the act: Of course, they still don't explain it as well as John Butler did a year ago: And isn't the anti-gold bias just amazing? Nowhere in the article is it even postulated that perhaps the reason China is hoarding so much gold is because they are planning to back the yuan with gold as a fiat alternative. In a competitive global economy, wouldn't that make the yuan far more valuable than ever-devaluing fiat? And wouldn't that competitive edge be the impetus to establish the yuan as a World Reserve Currency much faster than without a gold backing? Ahhh...I digress. That type of out-of-the-box thinking is just craziness, isn't it? Well, we'll see.........

    OK, that's all for today. Have a great Monday and let's just hope that we don't get the tests of support that appear to be coming.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    May 14, 2013 - 7:33am

    Turn for the better

    After reading the weekend cr@p I almost vowed never to come online without MrT being around to mod.

    However, after reluctantly IU both MonD and NonOver I find the rest of the blog to be helpful again. And shorter to catch up to ;-)

    Keep on track please folks. The only advice I can offer if you are feeling like you have lost the battle is this:

    1. Figure out what you have.
    2. Stash it.
    3. Forget It.
    4. Figure out where you are going to make a stand next.
    5. Do IT
    6. Don't be surprised if you land back on 1 with a completely new perspective on 2. or:
    7. Don't be surprised if you move fast forward into a life you never dreamed you would have. Then move back to 1.

    I have started from scratch many times. So far it is mostly a loop, although I am prepared to find this is some deep flaw in my reasoning also.

    As a laugh try to imagine starting out on your investment strategy with only MSM as a guide. Invest some e-Bucks & keep track.

    May 14, 2013 - 7:51am

    Stock market

    So some financial advisor is saying we are only half way thru this bull market.

    Ok, so when do companies start seeing broadbased growth?

    perhaps we need to improve welfare benefits to accomplish that?

    I expect a flash crash in market. All the hft head for exits at same time, no surprise.

    nothing is real anymore.

    except the pain and suffering the people will experience.

    SamSchlepps cpnscarlet
    May 14, 2013 - 8:06am
    May 14, 2013 - 8:08am


    In the article, he does not say what is observed with the BB's and FED action that led to the price movement predictions. Unless he specifies this I would suggest this is just good TA and a bit of luck. If he had said they did this or that then okay but this does not prove manipulation.

    Obviously I believe in manipulation this just does not support this.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:09am

    Used Gold Supply Heads for ’08 Low as Sellers Balk: Commodities

    Consumers will sell the least used gold in five years after prices tumbled into a bear market, curbing a source of metal that typically accounts for about one in every three ounces of global supply.

    Refiners will handle about 1,550 metric tons of old jewelry and other discarded metal this year, 4 percent less than in 2012 and the least since 2008, Toronto-based TD Securities Inc. estimates. The amount is valued now at $71.4 billion, from $84.5 billion at this year’s peak. Recycling more than doubled in the decade through 2011 as prices rose to a record. A majority of the 38 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last month said gold’s streak of 12 consecutive annual gains is over.

    “April was the worst month in memory,” said Arthur Abramov, the owner of Manhattan Buyers Inc., a cash-for-gold operator in New York that saw volumes drop to 300 ounces a month from 500 ounces. “A lot of people were shocked, and a lot of people were standoffish about selling.”

    Gold had its biggest drop in 33 years on April 15 as some investors lost faith in bullion as a store of value, hurting everyone from miners to investors including billionaire John Paulson. While declining supply in commodities usually signals higher costs, the impact in gold may be more muted because most of the 171,300 tons ever mined are still circulating. Societe Generale, Credit Suisse Group AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among those predicting the price slump has further to go.

    Metal Purchased

    Futures tumbled 15 percent to $1,427.10 an ounce this year on the Comex. Prices are now 26 percent below the record $1,923.70 reached in 2011. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 3.3 percent since the start of January and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 10 percent. A Bank of America Corp. index shows Treasuries lost 0.2 percent.

    The 30-member Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index, led by Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), fell 36 percent this year and more than $39 billion was wiped off the combined value of gold held through exchange-traded products, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    The prospect of losses has made retailers who buy used gold and the middlemen who sell to refiners unwilling to part with metal purchased at higher costs. Volumes of recycled metal, known as scrap by the industry, dropped 2.6 percent last year as prices retreated from the record in 2011, according to data from the World Gold Council in London.

    “Nobody is selling right now, and it’s survival of the fittest,” said Dan Nektal of 46th Street Buyers in New York, which has been in the jewelry business for three decades. “If you bought at $1,700, how can you sell at the moment? Everybody’s presuming it’s going to go back up.”

    Record Outflow

    Societe Generale is predicting a fourth-quarter average of $1,375, the lowest for the period in three years, and Goldman Sachs expects the metal to trade at $1,390 in 12 months. Investors pulled a record $20.8 billion from bullion funds this year, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks money flows. Hedge funds’ bets on further declines are about four times the average of the past six years, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

    Slumping prices spurred demand for physical metal, with the U.S. Mint saying April 23 it ran out of its smallest gold coins. Australia’s Perth Mint said volumes jumped to a five-year high. India’s bullion imports may surge 47 percent to 225 tons in the second quarter to meet consumer buying, according to the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. Imports by China from Hong Kong more than doubled to an all-time high in March.

    Global Benchmark

    Prices that rallied 8 percent since reaching a two-year low of $1,321.50 on April 16 may boost the supply of scrap. Gold will “grind higher” on physical demand and buying by central banks for reserves, James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., said at a conference in New York on April 30.

    “Physical demand or the scrap market is not the main indicator for prices as the paper market dwarfs both these markets,” said Stanley Crouch, who helps oversee $2 billion of assets as chief investment officer at New York-based Aegis Capital Corp. “Expectations about physical demand helping prices to rebound will be short-lived as the macro reasons will push prices further down.”

    Holdings in exchange traded funds backed by the metal were 2,228 metric tons as of last week and were larger than any except those held by the U.S., Germany, the International Monetary Fund and Italy and France. The amount linked to futures contracts was about 1,371 tons as of May 10.

    Volatile Price

    While customer traffic already is “a little better” at Manhattan Buyers, it is still down by as much as half from a year ago, according to Abramov. More scrap will become available as prices stabilize, he said. The volatility meant the shop had to reduce its purchase price relative to the global benchmark set daily in London. Sellers were getting about $200 to $300 an ounce less by mid-April than they were at the start of the month.

    “That money means something to a lot of people,” Abramov said. “A lot of them are waiting for prices to come back.”

    Billionaire John Paulson is standing by the metal even after his Gold Fund saw declines of about 47 percent this year, according to two people familiar with the matter. Paulson & Co. is the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the largest bullion ETP. Central-bank stimulus around the world will help prices rally to $1,700 by the end of this year, JPMorgan Cazenove analyst Allan Cooke said in a May 8 report.

    Stimulus Measures

    Gold gained 61 percent since the end of 2008 as the Federal Reserve was joined by central banks in Europe and Japan in seeking to boost economic growth by buying bonds. The stimulus contributed to an almost doubling of sovereign debt to more than $23 trillion, a Bank of America index shows.

    Scrap volumes, mostly from jewelry, reached 47.3 million ounces last year, or 37 percent of the 127.3 million ounces of refined supply, according to New York-based CPM Group.

    The U.S. is the largest scrap supplier, followed by Italy and China.

    “When the price goes down, no one wants to sell back into the market,” said Dick Poon, the general manager of Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Ltd., a refiner and trader. “Scrap flows were already lower this year compared to previous years, and are not likely to come back for the time being. Scrap may not return until the price goes back above $1,600.”

    Bullion Refining

    Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. (5713), Japan’s biggest gold producer, is processing little scrap and instead mainly using ore and by-products of copper smelting to supply its bullion refining business, said Masashi Takahashi, a spokesman in Tokyo.

    “Business is not good,” said Leah David of Leah David Fine Jewelry and Watch Boutique in Manhattan, who has been in the business since 1986. “Since very few people want to sell anything, jewelers like me will have no choice but to sell our own inventory or the new jewelry as scrap. We have done that a few times in the past, and may need to do that again.”

    May 14, 2013 - 8:09am

    Mr Fix

    Mr Fix: "a troll who is trying to dissuade us from our previously stated core beliefs, does not stand a chance."

    Dissuasion aside, what everyone needs to do now and then is question their own core beliefs; to "be your own troll", so to say. This is the only path (that I know of) to intellectual integrity. Absent that, your own brain becomes an echo chamber. Note that questioning is not necessarily dissuasion. It MIGHT lead to dissuasion -- or it might lead to further strengthened conviction. Either way is an improvement. And that's the point of it.

    S Roche
    May 14, 2013 - 8:14am

    Thanks, Roche

    Thanks for the link.

    Yes, I did know about that. I'd spoken last week to someone with whom the CFTC had spoken. Seems this is some special attention, directly from the Enforcement Division.

    While it's nice to see them focusing some effort, it's tough to think of the CFTC as anything but the Keystone Cops.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:19am

    from the used gold article

    There is no link, so not sure whom I am abusing, but this is a classic:

    Gold had its biggest drop in 33 years on April 15 as some investors lost faith in bullion as a store of value ...

    You know, I had been wondering about a $300 drop occurring between about 4 pm on a Friday and 8 am on a Monday, EST, but now I understand. Cutting-edge journalism comes to my befuddled rescue.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:21am


    it's a Bloomberg article by Joe Richter and Debarati Roy

    Howard Roark
    May 14, 2013 - 8:28am

    Overall information

    Nice links posted by a lot of people here at the community.

    I just listened the following podcast ( and it makes (a lot) sense.

    It´s encouraging to get to know people with this energy and determination. And humor too, especially with these kind of topics.



    May 14, 2013 - 8:30am

    4 more years!!!!

    Of the bull in equities.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:32am


    Yes, I agree with you on that. He also does not extend further to the Hilsenrath BS Non-news news, which given his powers of prediction should also have been obvious?

    May 14, 2013 - 8:37am

    I cant take the pain much longer

    My exposure to PMs is too great and my timeline too short. Something / some news must comes very very soon or I will have to bail. :((

    May 14, 2013 - 8:40am

    @Mr Horse

    Yes, there is no way margins can improve from here, especially because all the outsourcing, job-cutting, downsizing etc. has already been done. From hereonout costs start to rise, even if not employment. It now needs top line growth, which isn't in the tea leaves.

    It's logical also to assume that the things The Fed inflated most, Equities and Treasuries, will fall hardest after the Black Swan event, whatever that might be. But, ironically, that would be positive for the USD, which would be negative for PM's, at least short-term.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:42am


    Indeed. The only problem with that being that "The markets can remain irrational for longer than we can remain solvent"?

    Especially when supported by a digital printing press with no limits.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:43am

    Open mindedness

    It's healthy to have it and ultimately beneficial for the absolutist close-minded to consider other extreme possibilities unless they're fearful of being incorrect.

    Out of the box thinking is simply challenging oneself within their own echoed mindset before they first challenge or attack others for having diversity of thought that isn't inline with their own. Ego or the fear of being wrong/misguided plays a large function in close-minded individuals or groups of like thinkers.

    Constant skepticism by some is possibly the inability to be decisive or formulate an opinion they're comfortable with or might be unable to articulate. A free range thinker if you will or one who is just a contrarian by nature....the opposite of an absolutist.

    Challenging your beliefs outside of your own box and that of the larger box/group will only lead to a healthier and more rounded outlook even if you end up back at square one. At least you've acknowledged and considered other scenario's.

    Each individual will know if they've been honest with themselves or just merely insulating or reenforcing themselves from being wrong. Think outside your own box first before trying to cram your absolutes into others as fact.

    Grow larger everyday in every way...even if it hurts or is uncomfortable.

    Salisbury House
    May 14, 2013 - 8:44am

    CIGA BO Poiny

    Buying NUGT today large. This is Bo's day to shoot to GURU status.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:45am

    Your events aren't mutally exclusive

    If stocks and bonds fall in tandem, you are assuming that foreigners are piling into the dollar???? Seems backwards to me. If money is leaving stocks and bonds, then were is it going? I would imagine a precipitous fall in bonds would coincide with capital fleeing the US, not rushing in to bid up the dollar.

    Where would US investors go in that scenario? If they are leaving bonds and stocks, then safe harbor would be sought in metals, imo (which I will rarely give, since they are like assholes).


    May 14, 2013 - 8:47am

    This used to be fun

    Back in 2010 and 2011 it was fun to watch metal prices. You would get some movement... Some up days... Down days...overall you could stilll recognize the bull market in precious metals. Even the big drops were followed by some rebounds and a new base forming. When the Fed reps spoke the markets reacted as expected to both good and bad news. Now it seems that the market only responds to negative news or negatively to positive news. Not sure WTF has changed, but it will nice when we get back to the more traditional manipulated markets. The fundamentals have not changed so the bull market is not over, but damn this is exhausting. I don't know how Turd gets up to write a new post everyday. My hat is off to him and everyone who comes here each day to share their thoughts.

    Gold Dog
    May 14, 2013 - 8:49am

    Random thoughts from the den

    - Teach are you still there looking for answers?

    -On Puck, I have nothing to add that has not already been said.

    - On Densa. Someone posted that they had actually been to a meeting. I joined on a bet that I had with one of our billing clerks. It was more of a joke than anything else. (We both made it, no blood.)

    I bought some playing cards to give to my sisters to irritate them and it worked. They would all sail in themselves. Part of membership is a monthly mag of various crap. The people, at least in the mid-west all sounded way too nerdy for me.

    - On intelligence- There are many different types, all of which need to be respected. My favorite people are chocked full of plain old common sense and wisdom. Face it, if you are alive today, some 600,000 years after we climbed down from the trees you have pretty rare genes. Dumb people didn't last long enough to pass their's on.

    -ON CONTESTS- I am working on a new these pages for an announcement!

    Your friend,


    May 14, 2013 - 8:50am

    @Mr Horse

    It's going into hard assets. Which need cash to buy. I did say "Short term".

    Neigh ho ma?

    May 14, 2013 - 8:50am

    There, happy now?:)

    You also mention Clinkin, that defended the Republican Party and blamed everything on the democrats. Posted anti Obama BS day in and day out. Benghazi IRS DOJ and AP It's called TOPICAL humor, you know the "politics of the day". TFMR wasn't around 5 years ago.
    Mr. Fix
    May 14, 2013 - 8:52am

    @ alan2102,... a word on dissuasion:

    All I need to challenge my core beliefs, is to wake up in the morning, and see charts like those this morning.

    As a group, we have been beaten, battered, and sometimes humiliated, if not by the bankers, then by our own friends and family.

    You know that I have asserted that the spot price will continue to drop, and premiums will continue to rise, and that the physical bottom is in, but the paper bottom has no bottom. (That's it in a nutshell.)

    When I stated last night that trolls don't have a chance here, one point that I had failed to address, is that our core beliefs get challenged on a regular basis by the powers that be, we certainly don't need trolls.

    For example,

    @ Wolfy:

    I find your arguments completely unpersuasive.


    Wolfy has no effect at all on me!

    Fortunately, my phone has been ringing a lot lately, and there is lots of work to do.

    Therefore, I can be honestly unfazed by the spot price, since my income stream looks reasonably secure for the time being.

    Speaking of that, I must now leave for work for the day,

    wishing everyone a wonderful day,

    I'll be back tonight,


    Mr. Fix.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:58am


    don't know if I should be happy or upset:

    the very moment the metals started falling for no reason, again, I received a nice big yellow plastic box with the Canadian Mint Maple embossed on it.

    Had to make sure to keep my back straight when I carried it towards the lake.

    May 14, 2013 - 8:59am


    You sound depressed. Too early your time for a bottle of red, I suppose. It sounds like you are over-exposed to PM's, which is unfortunate. IMHO, the next move up is not imminent because the CB's are "All in" and they simply cannot lose control of PM's now. So, unless the paper game collapses due to perpetual physical demand or delivery demands, this game could continue a long time yet. Until there is no more physical to make prtend leverage on. Case in point, all the Hilsenrath BS and today's action. They won't give up because they can't give up because if they do, it's over. IMHO, the downside from here is limited but if you need gains quickly it's no place to be.

    But, where is??

    S Roche
    May 14, 2013 - 9:00am

    @Jaw777 re WTF has changed

    This is the reason, greater acceptance of this view: that increasing base money does not lead to inflation or hyper-inflation, which apparently was what a lot of the holders of GLD thought, so they're selling.

    It is not the reason I hold gold but it helps to understand alternative views, especially when those who hold those alternative views own 1,051 tonnes of gold (or parts thereof) in GLD.

    Mr. Fix
    May 14, 2013 - 9:02am

    Hang in there, the plug is about to be pulled.


    MAY 13, 2013 BY THE DOC 50 COMMENTS

    The G-7 are meeting this weekend outside of London. This was unscheduled and can only be considered as an emergency meeting.
    I have maintained all along that a “bank holiday” would ultimately occur which sets positions in cement while a revaluation of assets and currencies takes place.
    My guess is that the end game is in fact being discussed. How best to shut the current system down, reboot another one AND retain as much power as possible. I truly believe that preparations are being discussed here and now “how best” (for them) to close out this current chapter of world finance. All of this has been discussed and planned years ahead of time, these are not fools. The current discussion is merely about pulling the trigger.
    [Read more...]

    May 14, 2013 - 9:03am


    Good morning (or evening)....I would agree with that and add that there are too many working parts in the market structure to even make any rational sense or predictive trends at this point.

    Imho, given the current environment of massive new money creation it makes it more unlikely any trends can be identified going forward to a large extent.

    It all starts with the FX markets and in this era of massive intraday variations within that multi-trilion dollar daily market any anticipated market move can easily and unexpectedly be swatted out of the air by those FX or bond movements.

    No one can predict or trend that. Sinclair tries but he's been all over the place lately playing olympic ping pong trying to smash a serve back. I'm not picking on him as he seems sincere as do others. But I have to wonder outside of my box if he and others (KWN etc.) are merely in need of being right or "first" top callers in an effort to beat others and be smarter than thou.

    There's always an out with the KWN type's why they weren't right while still maintaining imminence all the time. They're either shilling, fishing or just trying to be "the one" and gain notoriety or infamy maybe. That's what I see as possible as it's never ending.

    I could be wrong about that.

    May 14, 2013 - 9:04am

    @S Roche

    Yes, totally agree with all you say. Collapsing Fiat and Bank Bail-ins might be slightly better reasons for being in Gold at present but the majority still seem to look at Gold only as an inflation hedge and so "Dead Money". Courtesy of The Fed and The Cartel and disseminated by the MSM and Financial Comedy Channels.

    May 14, 2013 - 9:10am


    Living in The Matrix is exciting isn't it?


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