Nostradumbass

843
Fri, May 10, 2013 - 11:50am

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store and here: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/cm/precious-metals-breakthrough. If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal.

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  843 Comments

Swift Boat Vet Ktesibios
May 10, 2013 - 6:30pm

No Crash Possible?? Leave cash in the bank??

Well hell !!! I just got back from the bank with an envelope full of cash! I sure as hell don't want that cash just sitting around the house all weekend, so I'd better get my bony ass to the LCS . I'll probably just lose it by capsizing that damned canoe on the way back .... as usual, but it's worth a try.

Swifty

YukonCornelius TF
May 10, 2013 - 6:32pm

I'd say he'll say the bullback bottom is in and up the flagpole

she goes! I love silver closing at the high today. Next week could be vewwwwyyyy interesting :-)


May 10, 2013 - 6:36pm

re agree, sometimes not

(caveat: a have had one scotch, and it is not my usual habit, but this thought was from earlier today, so only the expression should be mangled, not the sentiment.)

Many of us have been hanging around here for a long time (and welcome all newcomers, not circling wagons, the opposite). When I was walking the dog this morning I was questioning many things, and there is something I have been meaning to say for a while. Without naming names, there are some highly intelligent and enjoyable folks here that I have basically hated or thought were idiots in the past. (benque this is NOT directed at you, but you were so nicely circumspect that it prompted me to this honest drivel.) I still totally disagree with some of you, but the ability to hang in there, attempt to explain, apologize when appropriate, back off when appropriate and be considerate of your audience when presenting an argument is perhaps the key ingredient.

I had boiled it down to a sort of Venn diagram with a belief in the fundamental value of gold and silver as the intersecting island. But there is also a certain respect for the individual that I had to consider as well. Maybe the two go hand in hand ... a true understanding of value. I think many of our disagreements arise from radically different experience and environment, and so our anecdotal evidence is different.

(oops, second scotch, long chat with Mikey and friend in between)

So here's to those I have come to respect ... I also don't always agree ... but I think there is a chance our collective brain might see the shadow of the wings of the incoming multi-coloured swan.

Or at least so says Mrs Dalwhinnie

Cry Me A River
May 10, 2013 - 6:36pm

Fool

There's Your SLV Chart

Spartacus Rex
May 10, 2013 - 6:38pm

Re: Nostradumbass

Thumbs up on great post and clever Title there TF, however I would have picked a Title something more like:

Nosturdumbass or Nosturdamnus

To read drivel from a genuine dumbass however, One needs to search out Doubleline’s “bond guru” Jeff Gundlach who advised his listeners on CNBS:

“in this “wacky” era of quantitative easing you need to have some sort of inflation hedge in your portfolio, but that it should be silver, not gold.”

Excuse Me?

Yeah Right! The whole rest of the World AND the CBs are presently scrambling to acquire physical GOLD as opposed to physical Silver.

Apparently all of those “Chinese housewives” were actually lining up to buy Silver and not Gold after the latest smash down Right?

I guess all of those parents of future brides over in India were likewise increasing their holdings of Silver and not Gold after the smash down Right?

I suppose as well that the IMF will likewise now be considering including Silver, not Gold in their soon to be revamped “basket of currencies” Right?

Bond guru (ie Dumbass) Gundlachactually urges investors to “avoid gold” warning that metals yield nothing and are “dead money unless the price goes up.”

https://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2013/05/09/gundlach-have-an-inflation-hedge-but-make-it-silver-not-gold/?mod=yahoobarrons

To us Old School Stackers however Benjamin Franklin said it best:

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”

Gotta ask TF, any update yet with the possibility of minting some Silver Turds?

Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up and knows
it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed.
Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up and knows it must outrun
the slowest gazelle or it will starve.
It doesn't matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle; when the sun
comes up, you better start running. --African proverb

Hammer
May 10, 2013 - 6:42pm

Sat morning here and off to

Sat morning here and off to work. Just time to post this.

La riserva frazionaria è il cuore del probelma
Motley Fool
May 10, 2013 - 6:50pm

Jake

Thanks :)

You sure that scale is accurate...cause 9000 hundred million would be 900 billion ounces. Which seems a tad much.

Could perhaps be 900 in millions of counces, which would make 900 million ounces...that seems possible.

Or is it in grams perhaps?

القراع عصفور
May 10, 2013 - 6:50pm

ain't crickets you're hearing

Cicada Plague - Nature's Weirdest Events - Episode 2 - BBC Two

.

it's time to fog the insects Turd.

Hammer
May 10, 2013 - 6:53pm

Oh one more thing, Friday was

Oh one more thing, Friday was a blood curdling bear trap you witnessed now go have a nice weekend. It may be that some extra short traders to COT have been added to the badly trapped - we shall see next week.

cpnscarlet
May 10, 2013 - 6:53pm

Gotta Say It...

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/10_Turk_-_Incredible_Chart,_Look_For_$12,000_Gold_%26_$600_Silver.html

I realize that the dynamics in PMs are morphing so rapidly right now, that even Turk the Jerk may be right...

But given his history, this statement probably means we'll be slogging Ag in the 20s until 2018!!! And Au won't break 1600 ever again.

I've never, ever, ever, seen a man so completely wrong about financial calls over so long a time. This cheerleader has been dropped on his head one too many times. Stay off the top of the pyramids and SHUT UP JIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


May 10, 2013 - 6:53pm

I can't help myself

if you needed an example of disingenuous, look no further:

SLV

Submitted by Motley Fool on May 10, 2013 - 6:29pm. Hat Tip! 0

GLD talk seems to be all the rage, but how is SLV doing? Anyone have a link about it's inventory changes over the last few months? I ask since I really don't follow it, and am curious.

.

You are indeed a fool and a transparent one at that! Google is your friend, my friend, and it has been discussed at length here. You are curious - yes, curious and curiouser.

Cry Me A River
May 10, 2013 - 6:56pm

Or The Insect Could Be Flamed

How to kill bees the Mexican way
Hunt brother
May 10, 2013 - 6:58pm

Today's market action...

Smelled of exploding derivatives in the currency markets.

This spilled over to bonds and gold.

The post by lamenting Lavern makes some valid points on yen and gold.

Trillions are involved in currency carry trades. Gold gets caught in the crossfire

because it trades forex.

I think a big bank has big problem with currency derivatives.

maravich44 George Clooney
May 10, 2013 - 7:03pm

that script..

does seem familiar and consistent. random tuneage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrgpZ0fUixs

J.P. Cubish
May 10, 2013 - 7:03pm

I am a gold bug

You should have bought gold.

Buy gold today.

Buying gold in the future is a good idea.

I'm not going to apalogize. Gold is money. Ditch the paper Bitchez.

And just to clarify, don't just buy gold, abondon paper and embrace real physical money. Aristotle says - Store of value. Intrinsic value. Own these ideas.

57Goldtop
May 10, 2013 - 7:09pm

A votre sante Xty

Hoping I can buy a round or two in the pub by the bay in July. I'll, um, look for your legs?

And, congrats on getting into the second round!

GT

Byzantium
May 10, 2013 - 7:10pm

Nostradumbass?

This is the ponzi scheme that just will not die; it is a zombie economy that is defying many a credible prognosticator.

One of the latest is Max Keiser. I'm a big fan of Max, but he had a prediction running for some time that the great bond market collapse would start in April 2013, and it didn't.

Maybe, as Lamenting Laverne had indicated earlier, the bond market was indeed about to collapse, right on Keiser's cue, but it was rescued in some manner which involved having to pull down gold & silver.

Another of Keiser's predictions was that the UK pound should be tanking around now. Ostensibly on cue, the UK was downgraded by one of the ratings agencies a couple of weekends back. And the effect on the pound? Zilch.

Cause and effect is broken, everything is manipulation. Neither the public nor markets react rationally anymore to news or risk, if they react even at all. That Cyprus had such little impact on depositors in the PIIGS, is something that I still cannot understand. These are nations where people talk to each other, demonstrate & riot; but don't react to a massive increase in retail-banking risk. I am dumbfounded.

It will carry on until it doesn't. Nonetheless, once it all goes bust, it will have been from an accumulation of poison darts, many of which, and perhaps the main ones of which, have already hit home. The one that brings it all down, might not be such a big deal by itself, and may catch everybody by surprise.

In any collapse scenario, the stackers are immediately vindicated; till then, trolls are a fact of life.

tmosley
May 10, 2013 - 7:17pm

Yes, we have infinity billion

Yes, we have infinity billion ounces of silver. No need to worry about default, industrial panic, or anything like that. When prices go to zero, it will be because of fundamentals, not because of a collapse of trust in paper.

lol

maravich44 Byzantium
May 10, 2013 - 7:22pm

Byz....

.well stated.....ain't it crazy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2ii016S_Cw

Sandiaman The Watchman
May 10, 2013 - 7:22pm

Woody's Dad

Wonder how Woody ended up in Hollywood? Maybe because his Daddy killed a Federal Judge named Judge Wood. They always take care of their own.His daddy also was said to be one of the hobos who was seen when Kennedy was shot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Harrelson

Byzantium
May 10, 2013 - 7:25pm

Whiskey

I usually treat myself to a bit of whiskey while reading TFMR and before going to bed.

I must be becoming impervious to the effects. These days, whiskey doesn't have the kick that I remember. It tastes more like water now.

Am I on the slippery slope, or are whiskey makers indeed watering down the product?

Inquiring minds want to know, is it just money that is fiat, or are they messing with our booze too!

question
May 10, 2013 - 7:29pm

Carry On Regardless, Reality is Not For the Timid

The Old Philosopher Eddie Lawrence
Bollocks
May 10, 2013 - 7:31pm

"Cause and effect is broken, everything is manipulation."

Spot-on Byzantium. MOPE is all they have left.

When enough see through that, it will all collapse very quickly - because there's nothing other than belief supporting it.

maravich44 Byzantium
May 10, 2013 - 7:32pm

i think....

...that you are doing fine Byz... but i am likely an enabler. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUmZp8pR1uc

33 and a turd
May 10, 2013 - 7:34pm
Cry Me A River
May 10, 2013 - 7:39pm

Well Fool I Gave You The Wreong Data

In My Haste To Get The Chart In A Form Where It Could Be Posted, I Copied Into The Wrong Column In My Data Spreadsheet. Here Is The Corrected Chart:

Argent tmosley
May 10, 2013 - 7:39pm

Wild

Indeed when the price goes to zero it will be because the currency it used to be valued in is worthless and how can you value something of intrinsic value in something that is worthless,hence Silver in Silver or Gold in Gold,but hang on that will be the NEW CURRENCY - How beautiful this coming day will be : ) ; ) : )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=jeNsr_nQEfE

777
May 10, 2013 - 7:41pm

Big increase in silver standing for May by

165 contracts - 825,000 oz Total standing 17,260,000 oz (16,435,000 + 825,000) ---------------------------------- Something serious and very unusual is going on with Comex silver. It is very likely that they are playing with figures of OI of PMetals on first day and during the month. Good example was the end of April in gold. On April 26 they showed 9 contacts left for delivery. On April 29 (one day before April 30) they closed the month and showed gold contacts for May standing. Why? Because another additional 553 contracts of gold should be shown on April 29. They did not want to show such big quantity of additional contacts in last day. So on April 26 (Friday) one can see 9 contacts for delivery and on April 29 (Monday) one can see only gold contacts standing for May. This is from Harvey Report from Monday April 29: "We had 562 notices filed late Friday night, even though we had only 9 contracts outstanding, so we gained 55,300 additional oz of gold which will be standing for the April gold contract month."

Motley Fool
May 10, 2013 - 7:44pm

Jake

Thanks for the update. So it is at about 335 milion ounces now and I can ignore the 'in hundreds of millions' bit?

maravich44 57Goldtop
May 10, 2013 - 7:50pm

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Recent Comments

by lakedweller2, 3 hours 36 min ago
by Marchas45, 3 hours 58 min ago
by Joseph Warren, 4 hours 3 min ago