Welcome to the updated TF Metals Report! We hope you enjoy the new experience.

We've changed payment processors, so any existing renewals will need to be re-subscribed after expiration. You will receive an email when this happens. If you have any questions, send a message through the Contact page.

Nostradumbass

843
Fri, May 10, 2013 - 11:50am

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store and here: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/cm/precious-metals-breakthrough. If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal. 

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  843 Comments

OutsideTheMatrix Doctor J · May 10, 2013 - 4:45pm

Don't worry, the bank CEO's and Govt just called and said don't worry, your money is safe.

Monedas · May 10, 2013 - 4:48pm

Good luck to you DPH .... thanks for not taking Xty with you .... her legs are needed here .... serving the TFMR commune ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Don't Look To Me To Fill The Shoes Of That Prodigious Mother Poster World Tour devil

AlexCojones · May 10, 2013 - 4:57pm

The Greatest Gold & Gun Salesman in the World. . .

Dave Dees created this on 9/9/09 when gold was what? $990. Spiked to $1900 two years later. Gold will probably see $2900 before he leaves office in 2014-15 or 16. Wouldn't surprise me.

goldenbear NonoverlappingMagicCereal · May 10, 2013 - 4:57pm

@nonoverlap I am surprised. Since 2003 and 7%. And how have your other investments done since then? Don't you wish you had bought more in 03? If you had been more knowledgeable about "reasonable market forces" you might have allocated more to metals at those levels. I'm not guaranteeing anything. But its an admirable thing when people are willing to put their money where their mouth is. Is it right? I don't need anybody's opinions... 5000 years of human history is good enough for me. Going all in? Now you're getting on my nerves. I'm not all in. But I'm perfectly happy to allow others to allocate their wealth however they choose.

Ccanuck AlexCojones · May 10, 2013 - 4:57pm

I did'nt take the time to read the post yet, so I don't know if there was a warning (Please add one)....as I will have to clean my keybaord again.

That is priceless!!!!!!

Zoltan · May 10, 2013 - 4:58pm

Just noticed this.

Silver Lease Rates
May 10 2013 Change
1M -0.3008% -0.4941
2M -0.2626% -0.4941
3M -0.2249% -0.4940
6M -0.0236% -0.4452
1Y 0.2511% -0.4455

Now I'm not sure the timing on it (although I did check earlier today and it showed the rates from the 9th before the change). Was this the ammunition for the spike down earlier today? Or does this mean that we aren't out of the woods yet for Monday? Bob P. predicted the spike down could be both days. 

We have recovered well (even the miners) today. More fire works maybe on Monday or the start of the long slog back up to better prices? No prognostication here. It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future (Yogi Bera).

Z

The Watchman · May 10, 2013 - 4:59pm

RationalMind · May 10, 2013 - 5:04pm

Thanks, will consider your feedback.

Bollocks · May 10, 2013 - 5:17pm

Eric King and James Turk are bullish on gold and silver????????? Surely not! Who woulda thunk it??

· May 10, 2013 - 5:17pm

Woody Harrelson is some frigging hypocrite in my books. Nothing like living the high life, making disgusting, amoral movies, while lecturing the rest of us. Hollywood does more to promote absolute moronic nonsense than, well, most things, and he is high on my list of useful idiots. Sorry to blast, but you hit a sore point.

Back to the love fest.

Teach · May 10, 2013 - 5:20pm

au maple to the stack today...paid 1497$ Canadian for it. When I was filing my receipt, I saw the last one I bought in mid Nov. cost me 1705$. Considering demand and supply issues I had a small WTF? moment...just before I had a large screw them moment. I know what I know, and I am sticking with my conclusions. That will not be the last I buy...not in a long shot. I hope it stays on sale a couple more weeks until I get my pension payout. Keep the faith...keep stackin! (I got to the LCS before it opened and there were 5 of us in the 10 minutes I waited..all buyers. They seemed well supplied with au from what I could see, but there was no ag on display.) Thanks Turd!

Bollocks · May 10, 2013 - 5:20pm

benque · May 10, 2013 - 5:21pm

XTY,

I often agree with your posts, sometimes not, but in this case, I am with you 110%.

Well said!

Cry Me A River · May 10, 2013 - 5:35pm

The last time the commercials showed a "Flat COT' was Friday, April 12th, 2013

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/185543#comment-185543

On that day I said, "...they've slowed their relentless short covering to a point where they may be ready to turn the tide toward shorting into rising prices. "

"I must conclude silver prices will probably be higher next week. I think I've said this one million times-we need to see the commercials ADD shorts; as this would signal that they feel they can no longer pull the rug out of prices to manipulate them lower. We may see a COT report next week that shows this."

Unfortunately, I was under the impression that a bottom could be in place as of 4-12-2013, however, it turned out to be "just a pause" on the way down. As of today, having seen virtually the same pattern unfold again, I must conclude that although it might be encouraging to see a drop in the rate of commercial net-short decreases, there is no reason to report that anything has changed.

I'll be looking to buy in the sub-$22 silver region soon.

Watcher · May 10, 2013 - 5:37pm

From Jesse's site:

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Acts of Desperation

Intraday gold tagged the 50 percent retrace of its rally off the bottom, and then bounced back.

From everything I hear all these paper price declines are met by heavy physical buying. The jokers may have overplayed their hand.

The potential 'bull flag' is gold is very much intact. The rally from the bottom has now been retraced.

See you Sunday evening.
· May 10, 2013 - 5:38pm

Didn't expect much this week. Gold was down $23 on a +17,000 OI so I was curious about the internals. Silver was down 38¢ on an OI change of +700 so I didn't expect much. The only notable changes were:

  • Gold Large Specs reduced their net long by another 7,700 contracts, selling 4,000 longs and adding 3,700 new shorts. Their new net long ratio is an unbelievably low 1.89:1.
  • The Gold Small Specs are still net short by 1,704 contracts.
  • The Gold Cartel reduced their net short position by 7,900 because they added 16,500 new longs against 8,600 new shorts. This drops their net short ratio all the way down to 1.47:1. Amazing. Remember, a Gold Cartel net short ratio of 3:1 is traditionally bearish and a ratio of 2:1 is traditionally bullish. And now we are less than 1.5:1 and everyone is running around, afraid that the sky is falling.
  • The only action in silver came within the Spec category. The Large Specs covered 1,300 shorts and this was countered by the Small Specs adding 1,400 shorts.
  • The silver Small Specs are now almost net short, just like the Gold Small Specs, as the silver Small Specs are net long just 805 contracts.
  • For all intents and purposes, The Silver Cartel category was unchanged and the net short ratio remains a remarkably low 1.22:1. 

Finally, lets once again compare the Cartel net positions of last Tuesday with The Cartel net positions of 9/11/12, just two days before the announcement of QE∞.

  • On 9/11/12, The Gold Cartel was net short 237,091 contracts. That's 23,709,100 troy ounces or a whopping 737 metric tonnes of paper gold. 
  • As of last Tuesday, The Gold Cartel is net short 87,719 contracts. That's 8,771,900 troy ounces or just 272 metric tonnes of paper gold. A reduction of potential settlement obligation of over 63%.
  • On 9/11/12, The Silver Commercials were net short 47,272 contracts. That's 236,360,000 troy ounces of silver, which is a whopping 7,351 metric tonnes of paper silver or about 30% of global silver mine production for 2012.
  • As of last Tuesday, The Silver Commercials were net short 14,456 contracts. That's 72,280,000 or 2,248 metric tonnes of paper silver. A reduction in potential liability of over 69%!!

And finally, here's the most interesting comparison. On 9/11/12, the Silver Commercials were:

  • Long 32,206 and
  • Short 79,478

Nearly eight months, $450B new QE dollars and $13 in silver later, the Silver Commercials are:

  • Long 65,703 (+104%) and
  • Short 80,159 (+0.85%)

Chew on the implications of that over the weekend...

Bollocks · May 10, 2013 - 5:45pm
Mulligan Mint Thieves
· May 10, 2013 - 5:51pm

Everyone was surprised that the GLD actually added "gold" for the first time in over two months yesterday. Well, guess what? Today, it was taken right back out. And just to poke at us all a little bit...it was nearly an identical amount.

Yesterday, the GLD added 2.71 metric tonnes. Today, it shed 2.53 metric tonnes. The difference is just .18 metric tonnes or 5,683,72 troy ounces or just 14 London bars.

Heading into next week, the GLD allegedly holds 1,051.65 metric tonnes of gold. At China maintains an import rate of 233 tonnes like they had in March, they'd have that fucker drained by October 1st.

· May 10, 2013 - 5:53pm

We are now through the 10th of May...eight freaking business days so far...and The U.S. Mint has only bothered to update sales twice. Unbelievable. Pure MOPE.

Cry Me A River · May 10, 2013 - 5:59pm

GLD GOLD :

33,811,468.47 oz.

https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/

Here's How The Actual Depletion Shows Up Against My Projection: (This Chart Includes Weekends As I Performed A Simple Linear Projection Into The Future Based On A Depletion Rate Of -44,691 oz per day)

NonoverlappingMagicCereal · May 10, 2013 - 6:00pm

Heading into next week, the GLD allegedly holds 1,051.65 metric tonnes of gold. At China maintains an import rate of 233 tonnes like they had in March, they'd have that fucker drained by October 1st.

And the weather where I live was 4 degrees colder than yesterday. If it keeps decreasing at this rate, it will be absolute zero degrees kelvin by september.

I better stock up on hot cocoa.

cashonly · May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm

whatever happens with the market, gold, silver pricing....... I always ask my self: Does the world want to continue on with the U.S. dollar? The answer is NO. Clearly NO. Absolutely NOT. WHY?:

1.) The U.S. is no longer the manufacturing hub of the world.

2.) The U.S. is the largest debtor nation on earth and CANNOT PAY IT'S DEBT!! (until hyperinflaton comes, of course).

3.) The powerful U.S. consumer and eCONomy for the last 20 years was only due to EZ credit and more and more of it (**see 97 month auto loans now being offered! expect a 40 year mortgage soon).

4.) Wall st. screwed many in the world with their "investment products" such as MBS as well as their derivitives schemes.

5.) There is NO GOLD HOLDINGS in the U.S. In fact most holdings for other nations is also gone (see Germany).

6.) The only reason the U.S. hasn't experienced a full blown economic collapse is due to the FED buying the debt and creating massive amounts of money out of thin air.

7.) U.S. statistics being blatanly manipulated to hide the negative data. GDP formulation is now being changed so "DEBT to GDP" ration can be lowered.

When China stated that the U.S. is all about virtual wealth one only has to look at today's markets to understand exactily what they meant. We are a PONZIFIED NATION: Social Security, Stock markets and fractional reserve banking is all a PONZI type scheme. The dollar is symbol of it all.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal · May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm

And if your aunt had a pair of nuts, she'd be your uncle.

Cry Me A River · May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm

Troll Flake says,

"And the weather where I live was 4 degrees colder than yesterday. If it keeps decreasing at this rate, it will be absolute zero degrees kelvin by september."

Turd---This Guy Is Too Much!---Look At My Meter!

القراع عصفور · May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm
Set phasers to explode
Levon · May 10, 2013 - 6:07pm

You are right just as often if not much more than anyone else in the blogosphere but you are the only one who openly admits when he is wrong. That has gained far more respect from me and every respectful person here than for the shills who put out mindless crap day in and day out and never mention a word when they are wrong thinking that everyone will just magically forget their last bad call.

· May 10, 2013 - 6:12pm

And I wonder what CIGA BoPelini thinks of today's near-perfect FUBM?

Cry Me A River · May 10, 2013 - 6:24pm
SilverSurfers · May 10, 2013 - 6:27pm

John, at KWN, always a straight shooter, made a remarkable comment, if not stunning, and that is that THE PEOPLE (for people and by the people) are buying mint coinage, and that despite all the MOPE believed out there, the people are buying coinage, and not buying the story lines from CNBC etc, offered up, and THE PEOPLE sense that something is wrong (remember the people sensing we aint free, on the back page) with the paper printing, that the collective wisdom is alive and well, and they are buying gold and silver. Squares up.

MOPE is not that effective over the long term.

THE PEOPLE aint that stupid after all, slow to the switch, like the agency, but not stupid, like the agency.

And thinking it through, just because its a damn trait, it means that the paper printers will be overwhelmed in time. Completely Squares Up

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/10_John...

But that only a catalyst is needed, for the here and now, like we really need the ME to get more hot, and did some thinking, the light bulb went off, how about:

Brainwave ..... YIKES ...... LMAO!!!

FERGUSON v JPManipulator, a landmark case, enjoining bullion price manipulation. Geeeeussss, just filing the suit would be hundreds of bucks upward in the price for you trading honchos, as the Hatheway looked for catalyst to bullion lift off, smelling the action and lift off, right under your noses here at turdville.

Just thinking, Just Saying. Just Hoping.

ah forget it, no booz part defined, yet, dang it. :(

Interactive 3D Brain

Anyone see whats wrong with them sunglasses, no not the shape? The freaking rims arnt 24k and sparklings, and by the time turd gets done with them, trudville gold teeth abundant would also be sparkling, for the match set, just stylin, in the secret world of gold. LMAO!!!!!

Motley Fool · May 10, 2013 - 6:29pm

GLD talk seems to be all the rage, but how is SLV doing? Anyone have a link about it's inventory changes over the last few months? I ask since I really don't follow it, and am curious.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services
11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
11/8 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
11/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 10/29

10/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
10/31 8:30 ET Employment Cost Index
11/1 8:30 ET Productivity
11/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
11/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/2 8:30 ET Balance of Trade
11/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Recent Comments

AG12K, ...
by AngryCitizen, 8 min 56 sec ago
by cyclemadman, 35 min 31 sec ago
by pennywise, 4 hours 12 min ago
by AGXIIK, 7 hours 48 min ago
by NW VIEW, 8 hours 50 min ago