Nostradumbass

843
Fri, May 10, 2013 - 11:50am

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store and here: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/cm/precious-metals-breakthrough. If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal.

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  843 Comments

Patriot Family
May 11, 2013 - 9:06pm

Feds Propose Biometric Database In Immigration Reform Bill

Just to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside about how your US federal government is going to serve you:

https://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/05/immigration-reform-dossiers/

There was no announcement of this in any media outlet (I picked it up off of Drudge report). At some point, this stuff has GOT to STOP. I don't usually buy into conspiracy theories, but when it's confirmed the federal government is creating databases to catalog Americans for identification and law enforcement purposes, I have to ask them if they have ANY clue as to what's causing common Americans to view them as "the enemy" from a political perspective?


May 11, 2013 - 9:07pm

@Alan

Just a little backstory, Fool came in last night pretending not to know how drawdowns in GLD compared to SLV recently... despite the fact the TF has noted this repeatedly (SLV is not being drained the way GLD is which Fool knew perfectly well- he was just trolling his "gold is money, silver is not" schtick again). Initially Jake took his query seriously and helpfully provided all sorts of data- he went out of his way to make a nice effort- before realizing Fool's game. So Jake was pissed at going to all that trouble, and I don't blame him. So if he is less than tolerant of the Fool today, it is with some justification. Just FYI.

Indenture
May 11, 2013 - 9:08pm

Rui: "A sovereign currency is

Rui: "A sovereign currency is essentially a promise that you can buy products made by that sovereign entity. So a sovereign currency like US$, Euro or Yen is only as sound as the sovereign economy behind it." I'm sorry but your wording is incorrect. A currency is only as sound as the amount of gold willing to trade for it. A currency can be mismanaged and it will be reflected in the cost of gold in that currency. The Euro is not the currency of a sovereign economy.

alan2102
May 11, 2013 - 9:08pm

credit where credit is due

I observe that Motley, on page 15 and 16, behaved in a perfectly intelligent, dignified and gentlemanly fashion toward Jake, who in turn behaved in a perfectly infantile, hyena-like, and embarrassing fashion toward Motley. Perhaps Motley has been brow-beaten into better behavior? Whatever the case, two cheers for Motley. Perhaps goes to show that change IS possible (we'll see).

maravich44 Dyna mo hum
May 11, 2013 - 9:10pm
The Vet
May 11, 2013 - 9:15pm

Hmmm... Maybe gold is still money - Story from Australia...

"A SPEEDING security officer with $126,000 worth of gold bullion on board has a story "worthy of a scene from a cheap crime novel" and a defence so good his conviction for clocking 142km/h on the Bruce Highway was set aside. "

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/security-officer-with-gold-bullion-in-car-caught-speeding-but-has-conviction-set-aside/story-e6freoof-1226639962915

alan2102 Pining 4 the Fjords
May 11, 2013 - 9:22pm

Pining

Pining: Yes, I saw the earlier exchange. But my point stands. The exchange I mentioned started with Jake asking Motley in a mocking, insulting fashion to account for his (MF's) assertion that "gold and silver are not money". To his credit, Motley DID NOT RESPOND TO THE MOCKING AND INSULT. Instead, he behaved as I said in a perfectly intelligent, dignified, and gentlemanly fashion, and continued to do so, even though Jake thereafter intensified his infantile behavior, becoming shrill and embarrassingly hyena-like toward Motley. Bottom lines: 1) Motley is certainly not the only one around here capable of behaving like an asshole, and 2) Motley may actually be capable of positive change (WE WILL SEE. AS ALL SCIENTISTS KNOW, A SINGLE INSTANCE PROVES NOTHING.)

ScottJ
May 11, 2013 - 9:39pm

Block Party Discussions

Block Party Discussions: Lesson learned. Although its not new or surprising.. hits hard every time I encounter it... no exceptions. There are some really good people out there that are just trying to do the best they can. Most people have no clue what is the root cause of all of this and that we are apart of history. To all turdites out there, count your blessings in terms of your knowledge. While it could upset you or irritate you... at least you are on the path to self-enlightenment... and there is no better liberator from oppression than critical thinking and knowledge gained. - ScottJ

Sandiaman
May 11, 2013 - 9:42pm

Cover- up

So you REALLY want to know why these 3 stations are hardly covering Benghazi??????
According to Rick Grenell, Former STATE DEPT. Spokesman for the last 4 U.S. Ambassadors to the UN revealed...

CBS' News President - David Rhodes AND
ABC's News President - Ben Sherwood

BOTH
have siblings that not only work at the White House, not only work for Obama, but these siblings ALSO work at the NSC on foreign policy issues DIRECTLY RELATED TO BENGHAZI!!!
CNN's Deputy Bureau Chief - Virginia Mosley IS MARRIED TO HILLARY CLINTON'S DEPUTY
- Tom Nydes(sp?)
These stations are COVERING FOR THEIR FAMILY MEMBERS
by not reporting on Benghazi.

ScottJ
May 11, 2013 - 9:43pm

The Internet is Key

If there will ever be any meaningful reform. The Internet holds the key. The right combination and magnitude of words, passion, simplicity, and honesty has the power to change the world overnight. Can anybody figure this code out? Have we not reached the right time and space for this tipping point to occur? Questions I wish I could answer and have tried to tackle myself to no avail yet.

ScottJ Sandiaman
May 11, 2013 - 9:47pm

Re: Sandiman and News Sources

Does not matter the station. They are all fed information through Rueters (international) and Associated Press (Domestic). The board of directors for the Associated Press is made up of all of the "major news networks (domestic)" of which was bought out by Reuters years back. Reuters was founded by Rothschild money back in the 1700s originally using carry pigeons for spread of information. Both are under central bank influence... thus it does not matter comparing which agent of the disinformation is particularly better or worse, but the sources they use is tied to the underlying problem in general. Just putting my 2 cents out there.

Bobbejaan Monedas
May 11, 2013 - 9:52pm

@Monedas

Quote:
but, I think she would just prefer CASH .... PayPal .... Bitcoins .... or, as in the past .... SILVER ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Maybe Turd Could Just Set Up A Donation Account For Katrina Rosen Jewish Goat Herder

....... and loads more of your similar posts ad nauseum

You really seem to have a bee in your bonnet about Katie Rose for some unknown reason.

.

One or two light-hearted "jibes" might be taken as a friendly joke, but many repeated iterations of the same "jibe" becomes overly grating ..... Whereas you continuously hammering on over-&-over about the same "Katie is a beggar/con-artist" krap becomes downright bloody annoying & on the point of being "Enemy Action" to my mind.

.

Kindly do us all a favour & "mellow out a bit" in respect of your krap-attacks.

Slainte'

Bob

cpnscarlet
May 11, 2013 - 10:05pm

@Monedas

Of all the people I've met here over the past 2 years, you are the most strangely transformed. What the hell is up with you? Why have you gotten so damn crude and useless?

Tone it down and get a civil tongue in your head!

cpnscarlet
May 11, 2013 - 10:08pm

And now the IRS

The reports of IRS targeting of Patriot and Tea Party groups, coupled with the Benghazi fiasco just reeks of Nixonian paranoia and corruption.

The Federal gov't has lost my allegiance of any kind.

Nana
May 11, 2013 - 10:09pm

Another Call

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4262/dots?page=72

Didn't think this would be well received on Main Street but here goes.

For those who were interested in what Steve said on AJ, you may be interested in this too, post 1443.

Monedas
May 11, 2013 - 10:11pm

Katie ! I apologize !

I don't know what got into me .... today .... I was having a good time .... that's what's a little scary .... I'm not saying you're off the hook .... but, no more all day attacks .... word of honor .... but an occasional ambush .... or sniper shot .... count on it !

cpnscarlet
May 11, 2013 - 10:12pm

@Kcap and others...

Clif High Wujo's GCE stuff may be interesting, but it's so much BS.

For those of us who've been around a while, he's no different from the hollow-earth types and comet predictors who have been around 4-ever. Here's the most respect I can give people like that -

Everything You Know Is Wrong (Side A) - The Firesign Theatre

They are good for nothing except some humor...

Quisp
May 11, 2013 - 10:18pm

keeping with the recent leg theme...

I came across this one on FB. I'm sure you folks can make good use of this pic of Blythe relaxing......

Save_America1st
May 11, 2013 - 10:24pm

@Quisp

ah Blythe...you wicked witch, you! lol classic pic Quisp!

But she'll be back with her monkey's and Ruprect soon enough! lol

Our phyzz stacking is winning though, so keep it up folks!!! They'll be scurrying away down to Venezuela in defeat soon enough, lol.

Hammer
May 11, 2013 - 10:28pm

Awww, what a fun couple

Awww, what a fun couple (unashamedly off topic) Tis a Sunday morning afterall.

Video unavailable
Hammer
May 11, 2013 - 10:42pm
Hammer
May 11, 2013 - 10:44pm

Quotes from some

Quotes from some bears

Comstock Partners: “As we watch the market climb to new highs in the face of deteriorating fundamentals we have the feeling we’ve seen this movie before, in 2000 and 2007.”

Art Cashin, UBS Director of floor operations on the NYSE:“The S&P 500 has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions. That rate of success is not only extremely rare, it is borderline unprecedented.”

Marc Faber, Gloom, Boom, Doom Report: “In the 40 years I’ve been working as an economist and investor I have never seen such a disconnect between the asset market and the economic reality. . . . Asset markets are in the sky and the economy for ordinary people is in the dumps, where their real incomes adjusted for inflation are going down and asset markets are going up.”


May 11, 2013 - 10:45pm

Monedas?

I believe you have posted nearly 60 'Katie Rose' posts, yet not once has she mentioned you in a post, responded to your attacks in any way... You left humor behind on this one long ago. Perhaps 'ambushing' someone who has never wronged you in any way might not be the best move here. Please. Move. On.

Fred Hayek
May 11, 2013 - 10:54pm

The large specs won't be allowed to cash settle, will they?

There's been a lot of talk that the Comex will end up semi-officially defaulting when buyers get paid off with cash rather than getting their 5,000 ounces of silver or 100 ounces of gold for their contract. And it's sort of always been implicitly assumed that this would be Sphincter Incorporated, JP Morgan, that would be the party that couldn't come up with the gold and would be allowed by their sock puppets at the CFTC to get away with giving fiat instead of metal.

But what if it's not?

What if it's the Washington Generals of commodity trading, the large specs, who can't meet their obligation? This seems like an actual possibility as the large specs are now more short than they've ever been. What if, irony of ironies, some dipshit, algo runnning hedge fund gets caught not having a few contracts worth of silver or gold? What happens then?


May 11, 2013 - 10:55pm

Kudos then

More Sandra Fluke silver IUD!

Monedas
May 11, 2013 - 11:03pm

You're right, I need to rethink this !

I thought I was being funny as Hell (and a little mischievous) .... of course .... I always do .... I'm my own best fan ? Some of my Anders Braevik jokes .... didn't go over too well .... it's a crazy world ?

Beastly Stack
May 11, 2013 - 11:08pm

Mrs.F

Stop beating yourself with a stick TF. Happy Mother's Day to your wife, I hope you are making it an enjoyable weekend for her!

Happy Mother's Day Mrs. F

waxybilldupp Zoltan
May 11, 2013 - 11:09pm

Zoltan re: Katie

The 20 ga. Remington 870 "defender", in addition to the nice short barrel, has an extended magazine. I'm picturing Katie on the smallish side, so a 20 is much easier to handle than a 12. A Ruger .223 Ranch Rifle would be very useful and if in Katie's situation, I would certainly have one handy. The problem (now) is availability. Because it is a highly reliable .223 semi-auto with just about every imaginable accessory to convert it into a tactical gun, they are in high demand.

A coyote isn't going to hang around at close range long, so a dusting with #4 buck, even at 70-80 yards, will provide valuable training for the beast. Lots of young goats out in the middle of nowhere have to be appealing. Katie, you are going to need some artillery. Learn to use it.

Eyes open; no fear ... wax off

AlexCojones
May 11, 2013 - 11:23pm

Susan Rice vs Sister Rice

Susan Rice's blunders contribute to bloodbath in Benghazi.

Sister Rice spills blood in anti-nuke weapon protest.

Susan Rice makes up bullshit story on national TV.

Sister Rice tells truth and gets sentenced to 20 years.

Susan Rice makes a fortune while impoverishing people everywhere.

Sister Rice makes a pittance standing up for powerless people everywhere.

Susan Rice wins promotions, accolades and awards.

Sister Rice gets fined and goes to jail.

America: Where They hate US for our freedoms.

Dyna mo hum
May 11, 2013 - 11:24pm

@Pining

Excellent!

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)