Nostradumbass

843
Fri, May 10, 2013 - 11:50am

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store and here: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/cm/precious-metals-breakthrough. If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal.

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  843 Comments

Monedas
May 11, 2013 - 7:11pm

Save_Yourself1st ! Sorry, I did get a little carried away !

This IS a funny story .... as in STRANGE funny .... but, I'll try to treat it with more solemnity .... rest assured .... I am on KR's IU list .... for the longest time !

treefrog
May 11, 2013 - 7:14pm

mensa

i took the test and qualified back in the late sixties/early seventies. i went to one meeting under some kind of guest status. i don't remember much about it - it was almost fifty years ago. i was living in central florida at the time. a retirement area. not just wierdos, but cranky old retiree weirdos. i didn't pursue it. instead i pursued an interest in sex, drugs, and rock and roll.

now, i'm a cranky old weirdo. go figure. deja vu!

Save_America1st
May 11, 2013 - 7:20pm

@Monedas

Fine. I'm sure that's about the best that can be expected out of you, so apology accepted on behalf of Katie.

But just keep in mind that even if you're on Katie's iggy list the rest of us on here who have much respect for her still see your comments and I'm pretty sure at this point we've all had quite enough of it.

Move on...it's played out and way past old...time for another "comedy" act man. And keep it clean.

Thanks.

AlexCojones
May 11, 2013 - 7:22pm

Precious Metals Played a Part in His Assassination

Hardly a year after Dallas, LBJ and Nixon were erasing REAL money from the nation, once a republic now wholly an empire.

JFK's words ring truer now than they did 50 years ago.

"The very word 'secrecy' is repugnant in a free and open society; and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths and to secret proceedings. We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it. Even today, there is little value in opposing the threat of a closed society by imitating its arbitrary restrictions. Even today, there is little value in insuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it. And there is very grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon by those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment. That I do not intend to permit to the extent that it is in my control. And no official of my Administration, whether his rank is high or low, civilian or military, should interpret my words here tonight as an excuse to censor the news, to stifle dissent, to cover up our mistakes or to withhold from the press and the public the facts they deserve to know."

Just One of the Many Reasons why JFK had to go. Fiat followed, and then Vietnam, black ops and MIC spending. . . . and absolutely NOTHING was learned in the following 50 years, despite what Time had to say.

Cleburne61
May 11, 2013 - 7:24pm

Ack! Gold's use as money is OVER!

Turdite Havenstein posted this earlier, and I must admit....upon looking at it...it seems the 5,000 year lineage of gold as money is about to become a thing of the past. Yes. Because, you see, this is a new cutting edge industrial use for gold.

Well, *sigh*, gold, I suppose humanity must now abandon your timeless properties suited for money....since mankind has discovered you have other countless uses too! Alas, but why oh why did it have to come to this?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2322058/The-end-stitches-Wounds-soon-welded-using-lasers-gold.html

Everyone knows that every reasonable person believes that a metal can either only have a monetary use....or only an industrial one....and that anyone who suggests that these twain shall meet in peace and harmony is simply clinically insane. A pox upon you, medical industry, for stealing gold's monetary properties from us!

The priceless gold must sadly be relegated to the pages of history....it had a good run. After all, if tons of this invaluable metal are sucked into an industrial vortex, leaving only a fraction of the current supply for central banks and humanity....then no one will want it anymore!

Damn. If only things that were already highly coveted didn't have to be discarded for monetary purposes, simply because its uses are now exponentially higher than ever before....

Guess now gold's just a rich man's trash....like silver before it. ;)

Dagney Taggart
May 11, 2013 - 7:26pm

I Smell A Free-Range Prison

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/05/10/wdr-border-fees-banned...

Yep, you know the United States is broke by the fact that this was simply proposed. Glad your senators didn't follow through. It probably would have been reciprocated.

Thanks to the folks who "educated" me on AU. Obviously I don't touch numismatics. Metal ID and purity is all I need.

Bohemian
May 11, 2013 - 7:26pm

@Jake

At that time, hyperinflation was everywhere around: Austria, Hungary, Poland, Ukraine (Russia, after the Revolution), and Germany. These were/are our neighbors, but we didn't have hyperinflation. It wasn't just due to money printing though... Mainly, it was the outcome of the WWI, the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy. Some economist don't get it and see it only as a money printing. No. Of course not. For example, Austria was something like Beverly Hills, they loved their clean environment, green hills, fields... Bohemia was the same, but it was also the industrial heart of the Monarchy. Losing Bohemia, and Hungary losing Slovakia and all the farm land, they've lost income producing assets and tax revenues: all the banks, factories, real estate and other assets, not to mention mortgages and other forms of investments ... as all this was nationalized, repatriated, with the consent of the League of the Nations. It was a total wipe-out for them, and they were left only with huge debts. There was more to it, but I don't think people would be interested. They all were forced to print. On the other hand, one have to realize that Germany was a basket case in 1923, a total devastation, but 12-13 years later, Germany was a world superpower. Now this part has to be studied too, to understand the "mechanics" ;-) -- leading (or forcing) Germany to the war.

Magpie
May 11, 2013 - 7:27pm

What treefrog said

except it was Hawaii, and sans the drugs.....too much of a control freak.

Magpie
May 11, 2013 - 7:34pm

"..economics is a religion, replete with priests and churches.."

https://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/what-do-we-want-to-grow-into.html

When you get down to the heart of it, the only reason we need more growth is to pay off our debts. Which we owe largely to the same small group of rich, psychopathic and powerful that incessantly repeat the "need for growth" message, and makes sure it's the only message available out there. But we will have to have the discussion some day, and it won't be initiated by the people and powers that rule our societies today; that one's up to us.

Cry Me A River
May 11, 2013 - 7:36pm

Bohemian

What Does This Have To Do With Edible Paper Or Car Chase Movies?--Just Kidding!

Yes---A More Complicated Thing Having To Do With War Debt, Etc. My focus was to point out FOOL's lack of understanding of the difference between money and currency which clearly needs brushin' up!---kinda like churchin' up!

Video unavailable
Dagney Taggart
May 11, 2013 - 7:36pm

@Save

You have a PM.

Bohemian Cry Me A River
May 11, 2013 - 7:40pm

Jake...

sorry, I am cleaning house, my wife is landing in 30 minutes. ;-) Nightshift, yeah, talked to my daughter in Chicago, it's getting dark over there. ;-)

Cry Me A River
May 11, 2013 - 7:40pm

Which Reminds Me Speaking Of 1978

I Gotta Flip Flop And Fly! Cya Tomorrow!

The Blues Brothers - Flip Flop And Fly (Winterland, San Francisco - Dec 31, 1978)
Texas Sandman
May 11, 2013 - 7:45pm

What's the oops in AU

AU = "About Uncirculated".

What, you were maybe expecting an MS65 from 320 BC or something?!

I don't think they made proof coins, either...

But Dagney... For those snobs who only deal in MS state coins, this one is for you.

It's an MS67*. Frankly, I'd rather have the AU tetradrachm, but whatever.

Indenture
May 11, 2013 - 7:46pm

JakeBlues: "Answer me

JakeBlues: "Answer me this---Describe the action of exchanging money. What happens?" In the terms Motley Fool is using people don't exchange 'money'. they exchange 'fiat'. He is using the definition of money like he described, associated values. Answer me this---When hyperinflation was in full swing, why were people paid twice per day in Weimar? And what did they do with this currency?---If they were paid MONEY---would this have happened?" Here you use the word 'currency' to describe what people are paid and this is correct. They are paid a fiat currency. By 'The Fool's definition' they weren't paid money because money is a concept. Semantics yes, but an important differentiation. People are paid in fiat currency.

Magpie
May 11, 2013 - 7:47pm

Peak Consumption

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay13/degrowth5-13.html

The Degrowth movement explicitly questions what John Michael Greer calls the religion of progress (i.e. growth). The civil religion that growth equals progress is akin to the Cargo Cult of Keynesianism, the notion that growth is so essential that expanding debt exponentially to drive diminishing returns of growth is necessary.

Zoltan
May 11, 2013 - 7:47pm

On wrecked Mercedes and 20 gauge versue .22 Mag

Jake, that video was just plain wrong. Having owned one of those cars that was a terrible thing to have to watch. Gold Dog may agree.

Katie's biggest varmint problem is still the 4 legged variety. You won't get close enough to a coyote to get off a good shot with a shotty (12 or 20). I'd have suggested a Ruger Range Rifle (or my favorite the SKS) but the kick is intimidating to non gun people (even a tough old farmer type like Katie Rose). I stand by my .22 mag recommendation but love the debate so feel free to respond. A 20 gauge is definitely a better choice than a 12 (love my Remington Wingmaster) in this case.

Z

Hagarth
May 11, 2013 - 7:48pm

Potatoes are rockin'

Somehow spuds have taken hold and seem ready to overtake all else in the rush to grow.

A neat experiment for the radishes was to set up a cross hatch trellis (very small) to block the sun a bit. Currently I have 3 rows of radishes and the ones with shade are double the size, have even eaten a few this year. I may try to grow some close to the potatoes as an experiment in hopes that they will provide some shade.

Beets just cannot manage so far even with the fantastic ( +20 C ) weather, planted twice this season so far, maybe I'm just too impatient.

Bugs Nada, although one slug decided to do a slime through and ate a bit on his way, but nothing else is on the prowl, then again there are plenty of birds stalking the area at the moment.

Hegelkultur for those that don't know is rotten logs/wood, hay under the soil to retain moisture.

Dyna mo hum
May 11, 2013 - 7:48pm

Mensa

I fried my brain in the sixties too. If I had it all to do over again I wouldn't change a damn thing. I do say the wimmens were sweeter back then for sure.

Urban Roman opticsguy
May 11, 2013 - 7:53pm

opticsguy

It's not as silent as it was in 2011. The height of the drought. So blazing hot you didn't want to be out in it, it was like the inside of a kiln.

But we could go out in the woods after dark and not get bitten by mosquitoes.

Response to: Silent Spring in TX

TJeffson Zoltan
May 11, 2013 - 8:10pm

@Z re 22

My dad uses a 22 mag. It's a great gun for taking down most anything. Good range too for its caliber. In fact we used to have a local butcher that only used a 22 mag and never needed more than 1 bullet to drop cows, steers, bulls, pig, etc.

for range (for varmints or coyotes) I'd go with something like a 22 mag due to no recoil and its accurate (my dad uses Hornady rounds exclusively as they seem most consistently accurate).

For close up, you can't beat a shotgun, even a 20 gauge.

AstroTurd
May 11, 2013 - 8:16pm

Silver Prediction

Maybe someone else wrote same thing, but I figure TPTB will let silver meander sideways for a few months and then hammer it again, thus 'confirming' what a investment it is. I have to hold on that one day, ONE day, the global roof will collapse, and the price lie will explode like a nuclear bomb.

I wonder then how they will handle the anarchy. I read an article on food control as a key method. Since large corps now own farming, we're screwed on that arena as well. The People will be starved into submission, as well as no job, no funds, etc. The ObamaArmy will put everyone on the food dole and take further control of housing, food, jobs, healthcare, etc.

666 has been made the biggest joke on the planet, and yet HERE we are. "EVERYONE (i.e. on earth) must accept a mark to buy or sell (anything)." Those who refuse are put to death. Can't happen? Then you have never studied history.

DeaconBenjamin
May 11, 2013 - 8:21pm

Little Rock coin show

Not busy. Maybe a dozen tables, maybe 20 browser/buyers when I was there late morning/early afternoon. No gold bullion anywhere. Next to no silver bullion on display. All transactions I heard were numismatic, not bullion. Young Chinese buyer was paying substantial amounts for Mexican eight reales.

Rui
May 11, 2013 - 8:26pm

@Indenture - Gold and future international commerce

Quote: "Currency is absolutely needed for international commerce so the Dollar will be reborn."

Currency will certainly be needed for international commerce but the preferred currency will be gold instead of any other sovereign currencies.

A sovereign currency is essentially a promise that you can buy products made by that sovereign entity. So a sovereign currency like US$, Euro or Yen is only as sound as the sovereign economy behind it. You would not want to own a particular currency if you notice the sovereign entity behind it is unable to produce much. You also would not want to own currencies issued by a crooked government.

Gold OTOH has no such counter-party risks. It does not get dragged down by any individual economy or government so it's preferred to sovereign currencies. Who wants to collect payment that has counter-party risks? No one. Future international trade does not have to go through Dollar, Euro, RMB or any existing currencies. Jim Willie once said future international trade will be done mostly in a form of gold-backed notes or pure bartering. I think he's right.

And that's where your fellow FGers tend to discredit themselves with their bullishness in Euro. I remember VTC used to insist Euro will be strong under free gold since, according to him, ECB would set up a gold market so that you'd need Euro to buy gold and thus the case of Euro bullishness.

We laughed that idea off as gold never flows to a market where the economy struggles, and Europe is certainly struggling. If ECB really were to set up a gold market like that "buy gold program" suggested in the earlier post, they'd only see a steady outflow of gold to some place else where economy is doing better. Once that hypothetical market loses its gold then who still needs Euro? ECB certainly does not have endless supply of gold to back the market up.

Fred Hayek
May 11, 2013 - 8:34pm

@Jake re: The Driver

If you want to see the movie that The Driver is stylistically based on, watch Le Samourai a french movie from 1967 Directed by Jean-Pierre Melville. Watch it in a quiet room with the lights down low. Melville was the king of minimal dialog and a frenchman who loved american culture.

And I really like the car chase in The Seven Ups, too.

Kcap
May 11, 2013 - 8:45pm
question
May 11, 2013 - 8:49pm

@Magpie

https://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

Been reading JMG for a while now; a prolific writer with a strong grasp of history and a unique way of making connections. Well worth reading and his archives are extensive. He posts on The Oil Drum as well.

John Michael Greer calls the religion of progress

alan2102
May 11, 2013 - 8:54pm

obama could be impeached over cover-up? (benghazi)

https://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/05/10/top-gop-senator-says-obama-c...

Politics

Top GOP Senator Says Obama Could Be Impeached Over ‘Most Egregious Cover-Up in American History’

May. 10, 2013 5:38pm

Strawboss
May 11, 2013 - 8:55pm

Did you know that back in the

Did you know that back in the mid 70's the exchange between the USD and the Japanese Yen was around 300:1. We just past 100:1 and heading higher.

I point that out to simply mention that the USD has been devaluing against the Yen for 35 years.

Armstrong believes that even though the Fed is printing like crazy - it doesnt matter because there really is no other place than USD to park reserves (of which there are trillions) and that if Europe implodes - the dollar could rise HIGHER than it was in 1985 when the Plaza Accord was implemented. If that was to materialize - the strength in the dollar could push gold down to the $900 region.

I dont know how likely that is...but, it does make a certain amount of sense.

If Europe imploded - where would the world park its reserves? Cyprus?

How strong would the dollar rally in that environment? How would gold/silver react to that level of USD strength? What about the US economy? How would it fare?

SubjectivObject
May 11, 2013 - 8:56pm

I too would advocate for a 22

I too would advocate for a 22 wmr. I decided to make one the first line for HD on the basis of controllability, accuracy, and muzzle energy. My wife likes it much better than the 9mm pistols for being less noisy and much more controllable. I have two rifles in 22 wmr, one a bolt action, the other a semiauto (with extensive verified operational reliability). The semi is outfitted with a red dot sight, and what results is both eyes open fast target acquisition, quarter size accuracy over any distance on the property, and improved ability to operate from cover/concealment.

The perimeter sensors I posted earlier give the early warning, and give time to prepare with the 22 wmr.

The significant current down side for the 22 wmr is the not at all easy availability of ammo. Don't know how others can around that. Lucky for me, I just never felt comfortable with less than 10K of any owned chambering. I would never have predicted the scarcities we now see, and these scarcities will go on for years, because anyone with disposable income will continue making bulk buys at any opportunity.

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