Nostradumbass

843
Fri, May 10, 2013 - 11:50am

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store and here: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/cm/precious-metals-breakthrough. If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal.

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  843 Comments

NonoverlappingMagicCereal
May 10, 2013 - 6:00pm

@TF

Heading into next week, the GLD allegedly holds 1,051.65 metric tonnes of gold. At China maintains an import rate of 233 tonnes like they had in March, they'd have that fucker drained by October 1st.

And the weather where I live was 4 degrees colder than yesterday. If it keeps decreasing at this rate, it will be absolute zero degrees kelvin by september.

I better stock up on hot cocoa.

cashonly
May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm

no matter what.....

whatever happens with the market, gold, silver pricing....... I always ask my self: Does the world want to continue on with the U.S. dollar? The answer is NO. Clearly NO. Absolutely NOT. WHY?:

1.) The U.S. is no longer the manufacturing hub of the world.

2.) The U.S. is the largest debtor nation on earth and CANNOT PAY IT'S DEBT!! (until hyperinflaton comes, of course).

3.) The powerful U.S. consumer and eCONomy for the last 20 years was only due to EZ credit and more and more of it (**see 97 month auto loans now being offered! expect a 40 year mortgage soon).

4.) Wall st. screwed many in the world with their "investment products" such as MBS as well as their derivitives schemes.

5.) There is NO GOLD HOLDINGS in the U.S. In fact most holdings for other nations is also gone (see Germany).

6.) The only reason the U.S. hasn't experienced a full blown economic collapse is due to the FED buying the debt and creating massive amounts of money out of thin air.

7.) U.S. statistics being blatanly manipulated to hide the negative data. GDP formulation is now being changed so "DEBT to GDP" ration can be lowered.

When China stated that the U.S. is all about virtual wealth one only has to look at today's markets to understand exactily what they meant. We are a PONZIFIED NATION: Social Security, Stock markets and fractional reserve banking is all a PONZI type scheme. The dollar is symbol of it all.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal
May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm

And if your aunt had a pair

And if your aunt had a pair of nuts, she'd be your uncle.

Cry Me A River
May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm

I Took You Off Ignore Just To See What BS You'd Post

Troll Flake says,

"And the weather where I live was 4 degrees colder than yesterday. If it keeps decreasing at this rate, it will be absolute zero degrees kelvin by september."

Turd---This Guy Is Too Much!---Look At My Meter!

القراع عصفور
May 10, 2013 - 6:06pm

it's time Turd

Set phasers to explode
Levon
May 10, 2013 - 6:07pm

Turd, God Bless you!

You are right just as often if not much more than anyone else in the blogosphere but you are the only one who openly admits when he is wrong. That has gained far more respect from me and every respectful person here than for the shills who put out mindless crap day in and day out and never mention a word when they are wrong thinking that everyone will just magically forget their last bad call.

May 10, 2013 - 6:12pm

And I wonder what CIGA

And I wonder what CIGA BoPelini thinks of today's near-perfect FUBM?

Cry Me A River
May 10, 2013 - 6:24pm

Turd--Troll Flake Is A Klingon

These Detectors Prove It

Tribbles hate Klingons
SilverSurfers
May 10, 2013 - 6:27pm

Hatheway

John, at KWN, always a straight shooter, made a remarkable comment, if not stunning, and that is that THE PEOPLE (for people and by the people) are buying mint coinage, and that despite all the MOPE believed out there, the people are buying coinage, and not buying the story lines from CNBC etc, offered up, and THE PEOPLE sense that something is wrong (remember the people sensing we aint free, on the back page) with the paper printing, that the collective wisdom is alive and well, and they are buying gold and silver. Squares up.

MOPE is not that effective over the long term.

THE PEOPLE aint that stupid after all, slow to the switch, like the agency, but not stupid, like the agency.

And thinking it through, just because its a damn trait, it means that the paper printers will be overwhelmed in time. Completely Squares Up

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/10_John...

But that only a catalyst is needed, for the here and now, like we really need the ME to get more hot, and did some thinking, the light bulb went off, how about:

Brainwave ..... YIKES ...... LMAO!!!

FERGUSON v JPManipulator, a landmark case, enjoining bullion price manipulation. Geeeeussss, just filing the suit would be hundreds of bucks upward in the price for you trading honchos, as the Hatheway looked for catalyst to bullion lift off, smelling the action and lift off, right under your noses here at turdville.

Just thinking, Just Saying. Just Hoping.

ah forget it, no booz part defined, yet, dang it. :(

Interactive 3D Brain

Anyone see whats wrong with them sunglasses, no not the shape? The freaking rims arnt 24k and sparklings, and by the time turd gets done with them, trudville gold teeth abundant would also be sparkling, for the match set, just stylin, in the secret world of gold. LMAO!!!!!

Motley Fool
May 10, 2013 - 6:29pm

SLV

GLD talk seems to be all the rage, but how is SLV doing? Anyone have a link about it's inventory changes over the last few months? I ask since I really don't follow it, and am curious.

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