Nostradumbass

843
Fri, May 10, 2013 - 11:50am

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store and here: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/cm/precious-metals-breakthrough. If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal.

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  843 Comments

Save_America1st
May 10, 2013 - 12:22pm

Friday Sale Day!!!

Oh wait, my bad...paper price doesn't matter anymore. My LCS will still sell silver for 28.50 an ounce! No matter what "paper" does, he's been keeping things steady at 28.50 for 10 oz bars and 1 oz Buffaloes! He will do so as long as he is still getting it for 26 from his dealer, and so far there has not been a supply problem.

And 28.50 isn't bad at all. I'll take that any time....he needs to make a living too, right? It's pay day, so I think I'll pick up a 10 oz bar to celebrate the end of the not-so-great Keynesian experiment. lol

I used to think on days like this that I may as well wait until Sunday night or Monday to see if the "price" might go down further, but WTF does that matter anymore, right!??

Right now, no matter what the "price" does today or Monday or any other day for that matter, at this point I can still get some nice new shiny gear for 28.50/oz. And if that changes I'll pay more, I don't care. We all know eventually the prices will get too high and nobody will be selling, so just stack now while we still can.

Everyone have a great day and great weekend! Keep addin' to your stacks and sit back and watch the show! We are right and the Turd Army rules!

Don't worry Turd...in the long run you and many others who have helped so many of us will be proven to have been extremely prescient and all will be well.

agNau
May 10, 2013 - 12:22pm

They do use all markets....

and TA is relevant....because they have been using it to their advantage....busting trend lines, MA's, and support/resistance levels, at critical times. Clear example is dollar drop. Busted. Now looking likely an inverted H & S POSSIBLY forming. Concerted effort through key FX. If you believed in TA, and bought the fantasy FED story, and followed the trend..........where would you bet your fiat? Keep the faith. Physical is end game. Physical will expose them very soon. BUY THE REALITY! *edit https://gainspainscapital.com/2013/05/10/on-the-verge-of-the-biggest-bon... I am not endorsing this persons blog. But looking at the trend line presented on JGB.....where would be the most likely area for intervention by the FED? How will they accomplish both the support of JGB, and Dollar, and maintain pressure on the metals? Think of the "other" tools. We need to begin thinking like them....... And anticipating their actions.......outside the box.

Juggernaut Nihilism
May 10, 2013 - 12:23pm

Easy answer

Confirmation bias, plain and simple. You're a smart guy, but until you cleanse yourself of your overwhelming confirmation bias, your predictions aren't going to fare better than random guesses.

Juggernaut Nihilism
May 10, 2013 - 12:25pm

Paper price doesn't matter?

Paper price doesn't matter because your local coin shop is gouging you? If the paper price doesn't matter, go to your local coin shop and offer to sell them silver for $28, explaining to them how the ETFs are frauds, the futures market is corrupt, etc and they're really getting the deal of a lifetime.

Juggernaut Nihilism
May 10, 2013 - 12:26pm

OK

whatever you say

Be Prepared
May 10, 2013 - 12:27pm

The Mountain Top

My awareness of the truth was a hard ascent along a mighty tough trail. The markers along the way were full of lies until I realized that the only real path was the one that had no markings at all. It was dark and dreary with whispers of "Ye shall perish lest ye turn back!" All that I wanted to walk with me laughed and scoffed at me providing no solace to the questions deep within my heart. A great fire started rushing for me and, at first, I wanted to run from it for all my fears about what lay beyond.

Finally, I knew I needed to stand and let the fire engulf me. It needed to burn away all of my preconceptions, my conditioning, my beliefs in a system designed to keep me ensnared within it's grasp. The searing heat of all my readings and of all my toiled thoughts burned to me ashes. I awoke, though, to find myself cast anew and walking on a higher path than I had ever reached before. The air was thin, but clear and crisp to breathe for every draw within my lungs gave me strength. A great light broke through the canopy and I emerged to the revelation that I was created to be free and to truly pursue a course defined by my will and my faith. I have stumbled and shall stumble still, but I have been to the mountain top and I dwell there still.

Turd, you and your efforts are one of the few lodgings on this peak. You help us peer and ponder as the great unraveling continues.... I am appreciate all that you do and I hope that you realize that it's not merely your charts which drive this community, but rather your willingness to bring light to the dark crevices where the wolves are hiding ready to tear us from our perch.

Silver_investor
May 10, 2013 - 12:27pm

You hit the nail on the head

"If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable."

I couldn't have said it better.

Howard Roark
May 10, 2013 - 12:28pm

Besides all the sh++ and mindfu++

That´s it Turd: in a true sense - Keep calm and stack metal. Besides "there is no markets, only manipulations" (GATA, Powell) Nice weekend to all, HR

Wizard
May 10, 2013 - 12:28pm

Just Because

It in odd way gives me inspiration in dark times

Something To Believe In Poison Lyrics

W

Headswim
May 10, 2013 - 12:33pm

@Juggernaut

It's very easy for Turd and most people here to have a bullish bias, because this scenario has been played out in smaller scales hundreds of times throughout history. How many times does Turd advocate owning and continuing to accumulate physical and warn not to trade the paper markets? I don't trade but Turd frequently cautions in his posts that downward moves may be possible. But we all expect gold and silver to go up eventually based on the fundamentals...it's why we're here.

I'd rather be 10 years too early than 1 day late when this all goes down.

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