Fri, May 10, 2013 - 11:50am

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: and here: If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal.

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 14, 2013 - 9:48am


the fuse already, only the almighty can lite the fuse, and he has the target package, it speaks for itself, 121 pages, integrated and organized, now we need 6m$ and take them down. Easy as pie. ;) Timing is great, contacted by email most of the gold heavies yesterday, and one hour ago sent to the almighty the target package, only to have two take downs, to hopefully lite the fuse under someone, so Im ready right now to butt butt them real bad, taking it nation wide, of course with the public MOPE, and torpedoes concurrently in the water in the federal courts, remember, the US atty gen is on record as saying that they are TBTF and TBTJ, timing is perfect. ;)

I bet puck is cheering us all on!!!

القراع عصفور
May 13, 2013 - 1:54pm

i'm not leaving

and i truly don't care about hat tips. so bomb away, or ignore this post. i could not care less.

i suggested to a mod to copy and paste Monedas'perversions to an on-line head shrinker, and get an opinion. i have done so, and rec the same to all of you here that want to understand this community better. same suggestion applies to the other posters that i so often engage.

the IU feature does not work very well. i was hoping that TF would work on that - some of the site suggestions on the 'site issues' forum seemed workable.

i have already said my piece to Puck in so many ways. but i will add that you have found your truth now, and surely you no longer are an atheist! and with God you are because faith is not necessary if you have led a good life. God Bless!

Katie Rose - you are an inspiration. Keep your chin up!

May 13, 2013 - 12:25pm


"When my wife and I attend symphony, we look around and conclude there is no future. Average age attending id high, and how many new symphonies are or have been written. I though about rap music before you got there."

Well, let's say -- some art forms are linked to a particular era, like an opera, ballet...and these forms could stagnate or even die, because they don't give us "space" to expand them and continue. I just can't imagine an opera from the Vietnam war, with dancing and singing marines, with M16s. An Al-Kaida symphony... or even ballet Saddam Hussein. Milos Forman made that mistake with his Hair movie. It was too soon, out of touch with the existing situation and the social mood, the third greatest commercial disaster in Hollywood. While I can watch and listen to operas, in their historical context, and I love symphonies (Mahler, Bruckner, and so on) as well, I just don't expect a symphony Watergate, even though some were trying Nixon in China. There are new forms...and Westside Story is a classic, Rhapsody in Blue, there was the Jesus Christ Superstar, and the new-age music. Who knows? One day, the Oxygen or the Bells, will be considered the true classics? As well as other music.

Let's see, for example Telemann and his "tafelmusic". A huge classical composer. What's the tafelmusic? A table music. Some guys had a party, sitting around at the table, eating, drinking wine, flirting, and farting. And there, some 4 guys were playing just a background crap music, the music for the table. Telemann could compose 3-4 of them per week. Simply, they didn't have the radio or the TV then, or the iPod. Yet today, Telemann is huge, right? How about Boccherini, Vivaldi, Albinoni, the music for the church, like Bach cantatas, or Mozart? How about the "Vienna music", polkas... waltz, the Strauss family? This was always a commercial music, often paid for in advance, for a particular occasion, based on a contract. These all guys were for hire, true professionals. There was no talk about the "art" per se.

The same story is about the fine arts. Rembrandt, a great painter. Portraits of influential people, groups of people, different clubs, societies, politicians, cartels, trade groups, who paid him. There was no photography then. And in his free time, he was drawing and painting porn. There was this French Academy of Arts, with the REAL and the official, great artists. What did they say about those uneducated, primitive amateurs like Cezanne, Monet, Manet, van Gogh, and others? It was shit. Garbage. Van Gogh didn't sell one picture during his lifetime, except to his brother, in exchange for oil paints and canvas, and some money for food. Yet, these are the most expensive paintings in the world now. So, what has happened that their contemporaries didn't understand them as true and huge artists? Well, the future generations and time decide what was/is really the art, because -- they stay with us, we go back to them, discovering them again...and we LIKE THEM, they speak to us, while lots of crap AND former artists, great and famous in their time, didn't survived, we don't know about them, and are gone. Looking back, we see only those who are still around after decades and centuries, who survived the test of time, the top of the cream. That's why we feel and think sometimes, that there were ONLY great, trues artists in the past, not like today.

I don't agree with Green Lantern, no matter how many hat tips he gets. I meanit in the good way though. However, I do remember good American kids burning Beatles LPs, and all that propaganda around. Beatles never claimed to be artists, they were just kids making music. Later, they would tell you -- we were just FAB. It doesn't matter. Beatles are/will be the classics. And these American kids were good kids, talking about the church, Jesus, an attack on their good morals, an attack on America... The Beatles were corrupting their values, no?

May 13, 2013 - 11:56am

Retrobus !

I'm not really on anyone's IU .... I'm required reading around here .... what think of my "Boot Kick" icon .... next to the "Hat Tip" icon .... see above !

May 13, 2013 - 11:48am

poster feedback

Tmosely - you make a good point re "training" an objectionable poster - and you say: "I just wish that there was a more minor form of negative feedback which would help people to control their behavior non-confrontationally, without being something so extreme (IU acts as a partial hellban)."

I'd suggest that in addition to the hat tip count that's displayed for each post - why not have an "ignore poster" count that accompanies the poster him/her self (ie how many blog members have chosen to use the ignore setting for the problem poster) . Not just on the Leaderboard but on each post.

In the UK that was termed "Sending to Coventry" - very powerful behaviour modification

May 13, 2013 - 11:43am

Turd is on a three day bender .... I'm in charge here !

Juuuuuust kidding .... don't want anyone going ballistic .... he didn't go back to investigate Katie's crime scene .... and make an assessment of her security needs .... neither .... but Monedas .... in his role as peace maker .... has an IDEA .... next to the Hat Tip hat .... we could have .... a nice pile of horse turds .... with flies buzzing around it .... and call it the .... uh .... Horse Turd kick .... so Turder's could conveniently register their .... inconformity .... and keep tabs on a Stinker Board ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Thinking For All Of Us World Tour PS: Hat Tip .... Boot Kick .... am I on a roll or what ?

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

May 13, 2013 - 11:42am
May 13, 2013 - 11:31am

Sultan !

To show I'm a good sport .... I will kick in $5 .... if we decide to get Katie .... a rifle ! You set up the account .... so we can PayPal ya ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad I Never Said I Was Splendid With My Money World Tour

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