A Slow Start. A Fast Finish?

269
Mon, May 6, 2013 - 10:56am

Sort of like my new favorite horse, the week is starting slow with London closed today. However, a strong move mid-week and a fast finish down the stretch may be in store. Let's get started! Go, Orb. Go!!!

However, before we can make any kind of sustained move, we must first pass a wall of horses in front of us. In gold, the evil and nasty competition has placed a barrier on the chart at $1480-1485. Clearing that level will hold the key. The psychological resistance of $1500 might also slow our pace but we should pass that nag without too much trouble. IF we can pull off this kind of rally, we'll set ourselves up for a stretch duel with the all-important and critical level of $1525-1530.

You've heard me mention countless times how support becomes resistance and vice versa. Well, the impending Battle of 1525 will be a grandiose version of that principle. Recall that gold was held for 19 months between $1525 and $1800. The $200, 2-day collapse only occurred once gold was broken down and out of that range. Getting back through and above $1525 would prove the entire episode to be a paper charade fakeout and the shorts will do just about anything to prevent this from happening. The fun part for race fans is this: It is where we're headed! I might be too optimistic to expect hope that we will be there by the end of this week or early next but we'll see. I, for one, am going to position myself down by the rail so that I might have a perfect view of the action.

The old, gray mare just ain't what she used to be but she's still in the race and she faces a similar path to the wire. The Forces of Darkness have laid down a line of resistance at 24.50. Why there, you ask? Why not? It's as good a place as any and, as of today, it also coincides with the 20-day MA of the July silver contract. Ahhh, whatever. It is what it is and I think it will fail, too. IF I'm correct about this, and silver is able to move through the April 25 peak near $24.80, a little tap of the whip should be all it takes to send silver surging to the front and its own Battle of 26. Just like gold, silver was held for 19 months between $26 and $36. Getting back above $26 is now primary target #1. Can it? Will it? We'll see.

Three bits of reading to start your week. First, there's this from Alasdair Macleod: https://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/the-case-against-deflation.html. Next, this brief article from Hugo Salinas-Price on the 2-day beatdown of last month: https://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=210 And there there's this excellent piece from Jeff Nielson where he estimates China's gold reserves to be over 4,000 mts. I think he's still a little low, but, regardless...https://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/26166-chinas-real-gold-reserves-at-4000-tonnes

Finally, my horsey "Orb" has inspired me to start a new Hat Contest! Here are the rules:

  1. Predict the kitco chart closing price of gold and silver for Friday, June 7.
  2. To win, though, each winner must also predict whether or not ole Orb will win The Triple Crown, the third leg of which will be run the following day at Belmont Park outside of NYC.
  3. As usual, please use the comments section of this thread for your guesses. I'll close this thread to new comments/guesses at 10:00 am EDT tomorrow.

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  269 Comments

MrMorden
May 6, 2013 - 11:12am

Yay, a contest!

Au = $1420

Ag = $21.87

I hope I'm wrong, but the cartels are powerful...

Dr G
May 6, 2013 - 11:13am

Silver $23.35 Gold $1410 No

Silver $23.35

Gold $1410

No triple crown.

Grublux
May 6, 2013 - 11:15am

Thurd

!!!

Everyone must be stuck in the old thread...

Edit:

Au: $1330

Ag:$23.11

No triple crown

luv2stak
May 6, 2013 - 11:19am

The kitco charts reset in

The kitco charts reset in price every day at 6:00 pm NY time, when the evening Globex session opens.

May 6, 2013 - 11:19am

AG premiums

luv2stack

I think my math on premiums and price for Ebay over the weekend was correct, although the hour was late. I entered the number of coins in Coinflation's silver calculator to obtain the actual number of ounces for that coin count. I didn't deduct for shipping though, now that you mention it. But many LCS shops have to charge tax on a purchase. I know that some of our most under-appreciated trolls do not consider EBAY sales to be a legitimate indicator of a paper/physical price disconnect. I disagree. For a little guy like me, I sure don't see a better one--especially if Provident or Apmex or other fine online dealers are out of stock or delaying orders. I can get silver now on Ebay. I can sell silver now on Ebay for those prices. It is a national market--international of one wishes. 100 ounce bars are for a higher class of investor than I. 1000 ounce bars are another class also. I suspect these two classes of silver stock will begin seeing shortages also--as Texas sandman has already declared about 100 ounce bars. I buy 1-30 ounces at a time, as do the majority of metal investors, presumably. Ebay represents that large market. These days, the physical scarcity scene is far more interesting to watch than the charts.
ancientmoney
May 6, 2013 - 11:20am

@Turd . . . predictions for June . . .

Au=$1350 paper price with $150 physical premiums

Ag=$22.75 paper price with $8.50 phyzz premiums

Orb a no-go for Triple Crown

AlienEyes
May 6, 2013 - 11:20am

First

Page

DeaconBenjamin
May 6, 2013 - 11:25am

Contest

$1427.35

$23.67

No

ancientmoney
May 6, 2013 - 11:31am

Max Keiser on gold and bond pricing anomalies . . .

"To understand the price action in gold and government bonds it helps to compare it to what is called 'price tagging' in some circles. And I'll get to the definition of this in a minute.

Focusing on gold and silver: the way it works is this, whenever real cash buyers emerge for gold and silver in India, Russia, China, and amongst hard money advocates in the West - Wall St. and the City of London dump hundreds of tons of 'naked-shorts' on various futures exchanges (counterfeit futures contracts) that kills the price in the short term.

Conversely, even though the central banks and their Wall St. friends are floating trillions in government bonds, the prices for these bonds are currently trading at 300-year highs. Never in America's 237-year history or, if you go back in British history 300 years, do you find government bonds trading as high as they are now (i.e. record low interest rates).

Historic demand for gold and vanishing supply is driving the prices lower while record supply of bonds with no natural demand only fabricated 'quantitative easing' demand driving prices higher. This is a complete repudiation of the laws of supply and demand that is not only unsustainable, but causing immeasurable hardships and now many cases of suicide as well. (emphasis added)

Price tagging' is a good comparison to make when grappling to understand what's happening in the gold and bond market these days. Price tagging refers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_tag_policy) to the practice on the part of Israel, whenever the international community pressures them on illegally expanding settlements into the occupied territories, they kill some Palestinians.

That, we are told by the Israelis is the 'price tag' for insisting on compliance with the law.

The price tag for cash buyers of gold and silver - who want to escape the matrix of the US dollar and the financial hegemony that comes with the dollar's role as world reserve currency - is to suffer the ordeal of having Wall St. (principally JP Morgan) dump hundreds of tons of paper gold 'naked-shorts' on to the market to crash the price and destroying economies around the world.

We shall overcome. Eventually, the cash buyers of gold and silver will triumph over the paper 'price taggers' and their pathetic schemes and the world will be a better place."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It will be interesting, to say the least, to see exactly how his last paragraph plays out.

Will some country, or region, decide to make their currency convertible?

Will they require America and other countries to pay for their purchased goods with gold?

Will us old guys here live long enough to see it happen?

Sandiaman
May 6, 2013 - 11:32am

Contest

20.50 ag

1339 58 au

No

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