A Slow Start. A Fast Finish?

Mon, May 6, 2013 - 10:56am

Sort of like my new favorite horse, the week is starting slow with London closed today. However, a strong move mid-week and a fast finish down the stretch may be in store. Let's get started! Go, Orb. Go!!!

However, before we can make any kind of sustained move, we must first pass a wall of horses in front of us. In gold, the evil and nasty competition has placed a barrier on the chart at $1480-1485. Clearing that level will hold the key. The psychological resistance of $1500 might also slow our pace but we should pass that nag without too much trouble. IF we can pull off this kind of rally, we'll set ourselves up for a stretch duel with the all-important and critical level of $1525-1530.

You've heard me mention countless times how support becomes resistance and vice versa. Well, the impending Battle of 1525 will be a grandiose version of that principle. Recall that gold was held for 19 months between $1525 and $1800. The $200, 2-day collapse only occurred once gold was broken down and out of that range. Getting back through and above $1525 would prove the entire episode to be a paper charade fakeout and the shorts will do just about anything to prevent this from happening. The fun part for race fans is this: It is where we're headed! I might be too optimistic to expect hope that we will be there by the end of this week or early next but we'll see. I, for one, am going to position myself down by the rail so that I might have a perfect view of the action.

The old, gray mare just ain't what she used to be but she's still in the race and she faces a similar path to the wire. The Forces of Darkness have laid down a line of resistance at 24.50. Why there, you ask? Why not? It's as good a place as any and, as of today, it also coincides with the 20-day MA of the July silver contract. Ahhh, whatever. It is what it is and I think it will fail, too. IF I'm correct about this, and silver is able to move through the April 25 peak near $24.80, a little tap of the whip should be all it takes to send silver surging to the front and its own Battle of 26. Just like gold, silver was held for 19 months between $26 and $36. Getting back above $26 is now primary target #1. Can it? Will it? We'll see.

Three bits of reading to start your week. First, there's this from Alasdair Macleod: https://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/the-case-against-deflation.html. Next, this brief article from Hugo Salinas-Price on the 2-day beatdown of last month: https://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=210 And there there's this excellent piece from Jeff Nielson where he estimates China's gold reserves to be over 4,000 mts. I think he's still a little low, but, regardless...https://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/26166-chinas-real-gold-reserves-at-4000-tonnes

Finally, my horsey "Orb" has inspired me to start a new Hat Contest! Here are the rules:

  1. Predict the kitco chart closing price of gold and silver for Friday, June 7.
  2. To win, though, each winner must also predict whether or not ole Orb will win The Triple Crown, the third leg of which will be run the following day at Belmont Park outside of NYC.
  3. As usual, please use the comments section of this thread for your guesses. I'll close this thread to new comments/guesses at 10:00 am EDT tomorrow.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


sengfarmer · May 6, 2013 - 10:58am


... Allll those top tens and now a first???

ag1969 · May 6, 2013 - 11:01am

My Guess

Gold 1635

Silver 31

No Triple Crown

Kcap · May 6, 2013 - 11:04am

Could it be?



Edit: Au = $1603 Ag = $26.93 no Triple Crown
Joe Dokes · May 6, 2013 - 11:05am


Joe's in the top ten


Gold $1,562

Silver $24.62

No Triple Crown

wildstylechef · May 6, 2013 - 11:08am


Ron Paul: "This Is A House Of Cards" Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2013 19:02 -0400

Authored by Ron Paul, via The Free Foundation,

Federal Reserve Blows More Bubbles

Last week at its regular policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would double down on the policies that have failed to produce anything but a stagnant economy. It was a disappointing, but not surprising, move.

The Fed affirmed that it is prepared to increase its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities if things don’t start looking up. But actually the Fed has already been buying more than the announced $85 billion per month. Between February and March, the Fed’s securities holdings increased $95 billion. From March to April, they increased $100 billion. In all, the Fed has pumped more than a half trillion dollars into the economy since announcing its latest round of “quantitative easing” (QE3) in September 2012.

Although many were up in arms when the Fed said it would buy $600 billion in government debt outright for the previous round, QE2, all seems quiet about the magnitude of QE3 because it doesn’t come with huge up-front total price tag. But by year’s end the Fed’s balance sheet could hit $4 trillion.

With no recovery in sight, where’s all this money going? It is creating bubbles. Bubbles in the housing sector, the stock market, and government debt. The national debt is fast approaching $17 trillion, with the Fed monetizing most of the newly issued debt. The stock market has been hitting record highs for the past two months as investors seek to capitalize on the Fed’s easy money. After all, as long as the Fed keeps the spigot open, nominal profits are there for the taking. But this is a house of cards. Eventually, just like in 2008-2009, the market will discipline the bad actions of the Fed and seek to find the real normal.

In the meantime, real families are suffering. While Wall Street and the government take advantage of access to the Fed’s new “free” money, the Fed claims there is no inflation. But who hasn’t paid higher prices at the grocery store, the gas pump, for tuition, for insurance? It’s bad enough that household incomes have stagnated, but real purchasing power has declined so much that one in seven Americans, 47.3 million people, are on food stamps. Five million are collecting unemployment insurance with 21.5 million afflicted by unemployment according to the government’s own figures. That’s 13.9 percent -- close to double the 7.5 percent unemployment number reported last week.

We are certainly not in a recovery. We don’t see the long unemployment and soup kitchen lines like in the Great Depression, but that’s just because the lines are electronic now.

It is not surprising the Fed has decided to hand the American people more of the same failed policies. But it is disappointing. We know what the real solution is: allow the marketplace to work. Allow entrepreneurs the chance to create instead of stifling innovation with arbitrary regulations. Allow interest rates to rise to equal the risks in the economy. Allow bad debts to be liquidated so we can build on a firm foundation. Stop printing money to benefit the government and big banks. Restore sound money to the economy and the American people. Sound money is the bedrock for prosperity and the best check on big government and crony capitalism.

Gold Dog · May 6, 2013 - 11:08am


I made it!

EDIT- We are such children sometimes!

(I love it!)

Edit- Back with the prediction soon. Orb can run....seems like that closer will do well over the longer distances.

agNau · May 6, 2013 - 11:10am

Watching the dollar now.......

another surge slightly higher looks to be in the cards. Watching what should be descending channel formation. With trade outside the dollar a KNOWN(and just beginning), look for difficulty going forward in hiding the repatriation of those unwanted DOLLARS......as their numbers multiply. Just as food inflation cannot be hidden, dollars no longer used in trade should show somewhere. Ben prints $85Billion + /month, while trade is beginning to be conducted outside the dollar. Ben is printing dollars that are not being used in trade. They are adding to a sloshing pot of unproductive liquidity. As greater amounts of unneeded dollars accumulate, hiding their effect on all tangible items will become increasingly difficult. I am as well watching MEASURES outside the NORMAL for indication of those unwanted/un-needed Dollars return to BERNANKE'S STACK. Another plate added to BERNANKE'S numerous spinning plates(problems) that must be kept spinning. It is very close to slipping overtly.

SaratogaPrepper · May 6, 2013 - 11:11am

My Guess

AU - $1557

AG - 29.29

No triple crown

luv2stak · May 6, 2013 - 11:11am

8 !

and a maybe dumb question to Turdites on something that has puzzled me --- on the Kitco Price Charts for both gold and silver -- posted on TFM front page and Kitco-- what is the $ up or down (in red, to the right of the spot price) based on? It is NOT the start of the graph -- is it the price at the US open at 9 or 9:30 am? 

Thanks for any 'light shed'...

erewenguy · May 6, 2013 - 11:12am


in - now to read the post

MrMorden · May 6, 2013 - 11:12am

Yay, a contest!

Au = $1420

Ag = $21.87

I hope I'm wrong, but the cartels are powerful...

Dr G · May 6, 2013 - 11:13am

Silver $23.35 Gold $1410 No

Silver $23.35

Gold $1410

No triple crown.

Grublux · May 6, 2013 - 11:15am



Everyone must be stuck in the old thread...


Au: $1330


No triple crown

luv2stak · May 6, 2013 - 11:19am

The kitco charts reset in

The kitco charts reset in price every day at 6:00 pm NY time, when the evening Globex session opens.

· May 6, 2013 - 11:19am

AG premiums


I think my math on premiums and price for Ebay over the weekend was correct, although the hour was late. I entered the number of coins in Coinflation's silver calculator to obtain the actual number of ounces for that coin count. I didn't deduct for shipping though, now that you mention it. But many LCS shops have to charge tax on a purchase. I know that some of our most under-appreciated trolls do not consider EBAY sales to be a legitimate indicator of a paper/physical price disconnect. I disagree. For a little guy like me, I sure don't see a better one--especially if Provident or Apmex or other fine online dealers are out of stock or delaying orders. I can get silver now on Ebay. I can sell silver now on Ebay for those prices. It is a national market--international of one wishes. 100 ounce bars are for a higher class of investor than I. 1000 ounce bars are another class also. I suspect these two classes of silver stock will begin seeing shortages also--as Texas sandman has already declared about 100 ounce bars. I buy 1-30 ounces at a time, as do the majority of metal investors, presumably. Ebay represents that large market. These days, the physical scarcity scene is far more interesting to watch than the charts.
ancientmoney · May 6, 2013 - 11:20am

@Turd . . . predictions for June . . .

Au=$1350 paper price with $150 physical premiums

Ag=$22.75 paper price with $8.50 phyzz premiums

Orb a no-go for Triple Crown

AlienEyes · May 6, 2013 - 11:20am



DeaconBenjamin · May 6, 2013 - 11:25am





ancientmoney · May 6, 2013 - 11:31am

Max Keiser on gold and bond pricing anomalies . . .

"To understand the price action in gold and government bonds it helps to compare it to what is called 'price tagging' in some circles. And I'll get to the definition of this in a minute.

Focusing on gold and silver: the way it works is this, whenever real cash buyers emerge for gold and silver in India, Russia, China, and amongst hard money advocates in the West - Wall St. and the City of London dump hundreds of tons of 'naked-shorts' on various futures exchanges (counterfeit futures contracts) that kills the price in the short term.

Conversely, even though the central banks and their Wall St. friends are floating trillions in government bonds, the prices for these bonds are currently trading at 300-year highs. Never in America's 237-year history or, if you go back in British history 300 years, do you find government bonds trading as high as they are now (i.e. record low interest rates).

Historic demand for gold and vanishing supply is driving the prices lower while record supply of bonds with no natural demand only fabricated 'quantitative easing' demand driving prices higher. This is a complete repudiation of the laws of supply and demand that is not only unsustainable, but causing immeasurable hardships and now many cases of suicide as well. (emphasis added)

Price tagging' is a good comparison to make when grappling to understand what's happening in the gold and bond market these days. Price tagging refers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_tag_policy) to the practice on the part of Israel, whenever the international community pressures them on illegally expanding settlements into the occupied territories, they kill some Palestinians.

That, we are told by the Israelis is the 'price tag' for insisting on compliance with the law.

The price tag for cash buyers of gold and silver - who want to escape the matrix of the US dollar and the financial hegemony that comes with the dollar's role as world reserve currency - is to suffer the ordeal of having Wall St. (principally JP Morgan) dump hundreds of tons of paper gold 'naked-shorts' on to the market to crash the price and destroying economies around the world.

We shall overcome. Eventually, the cash buyers of gold and silver will triumph over the paper 'price taggers' and their pathetic schemes and the world will be a better place."


It will be interesting, to say the least, to see exactly how his last paragraph plays out. 

Will some country, or region, decide to make their currency convertible? 

Will they require America and other countries to pay for their purchased goods with gold? 

Will us old guys here live long enough to see it happen?

Sandiaman · May 6, 2013 - 11:32am


20.50 ag

1339 58 au


ancientmoney · May 6, 2013 - 11:38am
Beez · May 6, 2013 - 11:41am

And the winner in 2014 is....

Gold 'n Silver by a 34 year stretch!

Joining the ranks of War Admiral, Count Fleet, Citation, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and the great Secretariat.



No triple crown this year but we won't give up.

DeaconBenjamin · May 6, 2013 - 11:41am

Vietnam’s Central Bank Imports Gold to Bolster Official Reserves

By Bloomberg News - 2013-05-06T09:27:13Z

Vietnam’s central bank said it imported gold to make up for a reduction in reserves from sales to local commercial banks.

The purchases were equivalent to the amount sold at the auctions, the State Bank of Vietnam said in a statement on its website today, without giving details. The bank sold 367,000 taels in 13 auctions held from March 28 through May 3, it said. A tael is about 1.2 ounces. The auctions were held mainly to supply gold to banks that need to return about 20 metric tons to depositors by the end of June, the statement said.

The central bank in October ordered lenders to stop taking gold deposits from customers starting June 30. The bank needs to control the gold market to stabilize the dong, the country’s currency, Governor Nguyen Van Binh said in an interview posted on the government’s website on May 5.

“Previously, each year the amount of gold imported into Vietnam was about 100 tons, which would require a foreign- currency amount of about $4.4 billion,” the bank said in today’s statement. “Therefore that had very strong impact on the increase in the dong-dollar exchange rate, causing macroeconomic instability.”

The gap between domestic and international gold prices is still large because supply and demand are still imbalanced in the short term, the bank said.

Cash gold traded at $1,472.13 an ounce by 9:47 a.m. London time. The price in Vietnam was 41.82 million dong per tael, according to data on the Saigon Jewelery Co.’s website. Dong traded little changed at 20,936 to a dollar.

Silver Passion · May 6, 2013 - 11:42am




No triple

ancientmoney · May 6, 2013 - 11:43am

The U.S. Federal Reserve . . .

Spending like a drunken sailor:

Watcher · May 6, 2013 - 11:43am

Prices depend on the ME going

Prices depend on the ME going hot...

May will see a buy.



Orb will win the Triple Crown

PeterLemonJello · May 6, 2013 - 11:49am

Hellz Yes

Gold = $1,422

Silver = $22.00

Triple crown delivered...

Turicum · May 6, 2013 - 11:49am


Au: $1574.99

Ag: $29.99

No triple crown.

zman · May 6, 2013 - 11:53am

Gold- 1440 Silver- 22.85 No

Gold- 1440 Silver- 22.85 No triple

Mantis · May 6, 2013 - 11:56am

First time in a hat contest :)

Gold 1605

Silver 25.66

No triple

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