A Slow Start. A Fast Finish?

Mon, May 6, 2013 - 10:56am

Sort of like my new favorite horse, the week is starting slow with London closed today. However, a strong move mid-week and a fast finish down the stretch may be in store. Let's get started! Go, Orb. Go!!!

However, before we can make any kind of sustained move, we must first pass a wall of horses in front of us. In gold, the evil and nasty competition has placed a barrier on the chart at $1480-1485. Clearing that level will hold the key. The psychological resistance of $1500 might also slow our pace but we should pass that nag without too much trouble. IF we can pull off this kind of rally, we'll set ourselves up for a stretch duel with the all-important and critical level of $1525-1530.

You've heard me mention countless times how support becomes resistance and vice versa. Well, the impending Battle of 1525 will be a grandiose version of that principle. Recall that gold was held for 19 months between $1525 and $1800. The $200, 2-day collapse only occurred once gold was broken down and out of that range. Getting back through and above $1525 would prove the entire episode to be a paper charade fakeout and the shorts will do just about anything to prevent this from happening. The fun part for race fans is this: It is where we're headed! I might be too optimistic to expect hope that we will be there by the end of this week or early next but we'll see. I, for one, am going to position myself down by the rail so that I might have a perfect view of the action.

The old, gray mare just ain't what she used to be but she's still in the race and she faces a similar path to the wire. The Forces of Darkness have laid down a line of resistance at 24.50. Why there, you ask? Why not? It's as good a place as any and, as of today, it also coincides with the 20-day MA of the July silver contract. Ahhh, whatever. It is what it is and I think it will fail, too. IF I'm correct about this, and silver is able to move through the April 25 peak near $24.80, a little tap of the whip should be all it takes to send silver surging to the front and its own Battle of 26. Just like gold, silver was held for 19 months between $26 and $36. Getting back above $26 is now primary target #1. Can it? Will it? We'll see.

Three bits of reading to start your week. First, there's this from Alasdair Macleod: https://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/the-case-against-deflation.html. Next, this brief article from Hugo Salinas-Price on the 2-day beatdown of last month: https://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=210 And there there's this excellent piece from Jeff Nielson where he estimates China's gold reserves to be over 4,000 mts. I think he's still a little low, but, regardless...https://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/26166-chinas-real-gold-reserves-at-4000-tonnes

Finally, my horsey "Orb" has inspired me to start a new Hat Contest! Here are the rules:

  1. Predict the kitco chart closing price of gold and silver for Friday, June 7.
  2. To win, though, each winner must also predict whether or not ole Orb will win The Triple Crown, the third leg of which will be run the following day at Belmont Park outside of NYC.
  3. As usual, please use the comments section of this thread for your guesses. I'll close this thread to new comments/guesses at 10:00 am EDT tomorrow.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 6, 2013 - 10:58am


... Allll those top tens and now a first???

May 6, 2013 - 11:01am

My Guess

Gold 1635

Silver 31

No Triple Crown

May 6, 2013 - 11:04am

Could it be?



Edit: Au = $1603 Ag = $26.93 no Triple Crown
Joe Dokes
May 6, 2013 - 11:05am


Joe's in the top ten


Gold $1,562

Silver $24.62

No Triple Crown

May 6, 2013 - 11:08am


Ron Paul: "This Is A House Of Cards"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2013 19:02 -0400

Authored by Ron Paul, via The Free Foundation,

Federal Reserve Blows More Bubbles

Last week at its regular policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would double down on the policies that have failed to produce anything but a stagnant economy. It was a disappointing, but not surprising, move.

The Fed affirmed that it is prepared to increase its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities if things don’t start looking up. But actually the Fed has already been buying more than the announced $85 billion per month. Between February and March, the Fed’s securities holdings increased $95 billion. From March to April, they increased $100 billion. In all, the Fed has pumped more than a half trillion dollars into the economy since announcing its latest round of “quantitative easing” (QE3) in September 2012.

Although many were up in arms when the Fed said it would buy $600 billion in government debt outright for the previous round, QE2, all seems quiet about the magnitude of QE3 because it doesn’t come with huge up-front total price tag. But by year’s end the Fed’s balance sheet could hit $4 trillion.

With no recovery in sight, where’s all this money going? It is creating bubbles. Bubbles in the housing sector, the stock market, and government debt. The national debt is fast approaching $17 trillion, with the Fed monetizing most of the newly issued debt. The stock market has been hitting record highs for the past two months as investors seek to capitalize on the Fed’s easy money. After all, as long as the Fed keeps the spigot open, nominal profits are there for the taking. But this is a house of cards. Eventually, just like in 2008-2009, the market will discipline the bad actions of the Fed and seek to find the real normal.

In the meantime, real families are suffering. While Wall Street and the government take advantage of access to the Fed’s new “free” money, the Fed claims there is no inflation. But who hasn’t paid higher prices at the grocery store, the gas pump, for tuition, for insurance? It’s bad enough that household incomes have stagnated, but real purchasing power has declined so much that one in seven Americans, 47.3 million people, are on food stamps. Five million are collecting unemployment insurance with 21.5 million afflicted by unemployment according to the government’s own figures. That’s 13.9 percent -- close to double the 7.5 percent unemployment number reported last week.

We are certainly not in a recovery. We don’t see the long unemployment and soup kitchen lines like in the Great Depression, but that’s just because the lines are electronic now.

It is not surprising the Fed has decided to hand the American people more of the same failed policies. But it is disappointing. We know what the real solution is: allow the marketplace to work. Allow entrepreneurs the chance to create instead of stifling innovation with arbitrary regulations. Allow interest rates to rise to equal the risks in the economy. Allow bad debts to be liquidated so we can build on a firm foundation. Stop printing money to benefit the government and big banks. Restore sound money to the economy and the American people. Sound money is the bedrock for prosperity and the best check on big government and crony capitalism.

Gold Dog
May 6, 2013 - 11:08am


I made it!

EDIT- We are such children sometimes!

(I love it!)

Edit- Back with the prediction soon. Orb can run....seems like that closer will do well over the longer distances.

May 6, 2013 - 11:10am

Watching the dollar now.......

another surge slightly higher looks to be in the cards. Watching what should be descending channel formation. With trade outside the dollar a KNOWN(and just beginning), look for difficulty going forward in hiding the repatriation of those unwanted DOLLARS......as their numbers multiply. Just as food inflation cannot be hidden, dollars no longer used in trade should show somewhere. Ben prints $85Billion + /month, while trade is beginning to be conducted outside the dollar. Ben is printing dollars that are not being used in trade. They are adding to a sloshing pot of unproductive liquidity. As greater amounts of unneeded dollars accumulate, hiding their effect on all tangible items will become increasingly difficult. I am as well watching MEASURES outside the NORMAL for indication of those unwanted/un-needed Dollars return to BERNANKE'S STACK. Another plate added to BERNANKE'S numerous spinning plates(problems) that must be kept spinning. It is very close to slipping overtly.

May 6, 2013 - 11:11am

My Guess

AU - $1557

AG - 29.29

No triple crown

May 6, 2013 - 11:11am

8 !

and a maybe dumb question to Turdites on something that has puzzled me --- on the Kitco Price Charts for both gold and silver -- posted on TFM front page and Kitco-- what is the $ up or down (in red, to the right of the spot price) based on? It is NOT the start of the graph -- is it the price at the US open at 9 or 9:30 am?

Thanks for any 'light shed'...

May 6, 2013 - 11:12am


in - now to read the post

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

269 Comments on A Slow Start. A Fast Finish?

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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