Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Fri, May 3, 2013 - 4:38pm

As we wrap this week and prepare for the next, let's review the charts and the CoT.

First, the Commitment of Traders report. It just came out ten minutes ago and here are my initial thoughts. Keep in mind a couple of things:

  1. For the reporting week, gold was UP $62 and its OI was also higher by 6,000 contracts
  2. Silver was also UP. It rose $1.36 but its OI fell by 15,500 or nearly 10%
  3. The silver OI drop was almost entirely due to May contract expiration and First Notice Day, which happened at the exact same time as the CoT survey, at the Comex close back on Tuesday
  4. After the survey, open interest rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down a 2-day total of $4.50 yet its OI rose by 8,000 contracts and silver 35¢ on an OI rise of 1,400.


Continuing the trend, The Specs sold and The Cartel bought. For the week, the Large Specs dumped 3,900 longs and added 3,300 new shorts and the Small Specs are now NET SHORT by nearly 1,500 contracts after they dumped 2,400 longs while covering 800 shorts. Think about that for a moment....the most out-of-touch, ultimate-outsider group the Small Specs, are now NET SHORT. At $1450. For perspective, near the price peak on 8/16/11 the Small Specs were long 70,510 and short 21,749 for a net long ratio of 3.24:1. As of three days ago, they were long just 37,451 and short 38,940 for a net long ratio of 0.96:1. (As an aside, you should really go back and look at that entire CoT report from Harvey's archives. Marvel at the difference in positioning between then and now. https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_08_14_archive.html

To no surprise, The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to reduce their net short position by 8,800 contracts. Last week, though they added 5,255 new shorts, they also added 14,080 longs. This brings their net short ratio all the way down to just 1.56:1. Again, for the sake of comparison, look at that CoT from 8/16/11. At $1900 gold, The Cartel was long just 160,562 and short 409,409 for a net short ratio of 2.55:1.

Digging deeper, what's the big difference between then and now? On 8/16/11, The Gold Cartel was long 160,562. Back on Tuesday, they were long 170,211. However, back in August of 2011 they were short 409,409 and as of last Tuesday they were short just 265,774. Instead of letting gold get away from them when it suddenly became the only currency alternative to fiat, The Cartel moved to aggressively smash price, an operation that continues to this day. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their net short position by 153,284 contracts or 61.6%! Or looked at another way, they've been able to reduce their paper-physical liability by 15,328,400 ounces or 477 metric tonnes!


Again, May13 contract expiration has distorted this report, regardless it's still quite interesting. Last week, the Large Specs dumped another 3,100 longs while covering just 300 shorts. This brings their net long ratio back down to just 1.52:1. The silver Small Specs were net neutral for the week are are still just barely net long.

The commercials in silver who have been taking on JPM in The Civil War actually dumped some longs last week into expiration. Their gross long position fell by 2,573 to 65,685. JPM et al seized upon the Large Spec and Comm selling and covered 5,507 shorts, down to 79,915. This lowers The Silver Cartel net short ratio all the way down to an incredible 1.22:1.

For perspective, let's once again review the CoT from 8/16/11, when silver was trading near $41.

  • Large Spec longs 8/16/11 = 32,697. Last Tuesday = 35,720
  • Large Spec shorts 8/16/11 = 10,769. Last Tuesday = 23,530
  • Large Spec net long ratio 8/16/11 = 3.06:1. Last Tuesday 1.52.1.
  • Comm Longs 8/16/11 = 34,555. Last Tuesday = 65,685
  • Comm Shorts 8/16/11 = 75,236. Last Tuesday = 79,915
  • Cartel net short ratio 8/16/11 = 2.18:1. Last Tuesday = 1.22:1.

Well, what stands out at you? Note that the Large Spec long and Cartel short positions are nearly unchanged over 20 months and a $17 drop in price. Then note the HUGE change in the Large Spec short and Commercial long positions. Also notice the difference between the commercial silver activity and the commercial gold activity. In gold over the exact same time period, the Comm long position is nearly unchanged. However, the silver Comm long position has nearly doubled!

Now I suppose we could really drill down into this and try to discern, by firm, how positions have changed. That's a topic for another day. For today, just think of this:

I laid out for you yesterday all of the many events that have occurred while gold has declined by $500. In summary, I concluded that late August of 2011 was a seminal period of time for the Forces of Darkness. They saw the collapse of confidence in every single fiat currency and the decision was made to attack gold and silver as they had become the only, true alternative to paper. This plan of action continues to this day. By containing gold and silver for the past 20 months, The Cartels have:

  • Reduced their net short position in gold by 153,284 contracts. This equates to 15,328,400 troy ounces of gold or roughly 477 metric tonnes.
  • Reduced their net short exposure in silver by 26,449 contracts or 132,245,000 ounces of silver or 4,113 metric tonnes.

As we head into next week, we should all feel pretty good about surviving this past one. Things looked pretty lousy back on Wednesday but we've since recovered and the charts don't look too bad. Now if we can just get a shove...and burst through resistance at $1485 and $24.80, we could quickly move right back to $1525 and $26 and be poised for an epic battle, fighting to move back into the 1525-1800 and 26-36 price ranges that had contained the metals since the August 2011 attack plan began.

OK, time to call it a week. Ole Turd's got a frosty beer waiting for him and I'm not sure if I can wait much longer. If I wrap up now, I might also be able to catch the Kentucky Oaks. By the way, I haven't studied the form yet but, from what I've seen, I like Normandy Invasion in The Derby tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 4, 2013 - 9:43pm

Attacks on Damascus as I type

Best to keep an eye on this.

Potential for break out is real.

May 4, 2013 - 9:55pm

Don't call me Fred, my name's....

Hey Hitler! What the F are you talking about?

Dyna mo hum
May 4, 2013 - 9:57pm


You are a good addition to this place. I for one enjoy your posts so carry on!

May 4, 2013 - 9:58pm

Ditto TexS

Jake was one of the first Turds I crossed swords with here long ago, but he's far from needing to be shown a door. There's a few around here who are roughhewn AND contribute nothing. Jake is just a little rough.

Sheetrocker DeaconBenjamin
May 4, 2013 - 9:59pm

@DeaconBenjamin RE:BCCI

Good info. I wish more people would take a little time to look into subjects like this, especially those who deny high level government participation in illegal activities and conspiracies.

This is all highly relevant to the current state of affairs in the US and the rest of the world. Anyone who goes down this rabbit hole will discover a giant rats nest with spider webs connecting to the same names and same organizations world-wide. This crap has been going on for a long time.

Before BCCI, there was the Nugan Hand Bank.

Nugan Hand Ltd. was founded in Sydney in 1973 by Australian lawyer Francis John "Frank" Nugan (who was reputedly associated with the Mafia in Griffith, New South Wales) and former U.S. Green Beret Michael Jon "Mike" Hand who had experience in the Vietnam War (after which he began training Hmong guerillas in Northern Laos under CIA aegis, an experience alleged to account for his ties to the "Golden Triangle" heroin trade). It has been alleged that the two generally split the business: Nugan took care of tax fraud and money-laundering, while Hand managed the drug money and the international branches.

The Nugan Hand Bank attracted investors with promises of up to 16% interest rates on their deposits and assurances of anonymity, tax-free accounts, specialist investment assistance, along with more surreptitious services such as money laundering (charging a mere 22% fee).[citation needed] Nugan Hand rapidly gained business and expanded its offices from a single Sydney office to a global network that included branches (registered in the Cayman Islands) in Chiang Mai, Manila, Hawaii, Cape Town, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Cayman Islands and Washington D.C..

The Nugan Hand Bank gained respectability by the recruitment of a number of retired senior U.S. military and intelligence personnel, such as former Rear Admiral Earl "Buddy" Yates as bank president and ex-CIA head William Colby as legal counsel.


Before the Nugan Hand Bank, there was Castle Bank & Trust.

Castle Bank & Trust was a notorious Bahamian bank that was involved in tax evasion, as well as covertly funneling funds for the Central Intelligence Agency. The bank was founded in the 1960s by Paul Helliwell, a former member of the Office of Strategic Services, and Burton Kanter, a tax lawyer.

The bank was used by the CIA to funnel money for covert military operations, including those at Andros Island (Bahamas), a staging area for anti-Castro activities.

In the early 1970s, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service started an investigation into the tax avoidance schemes used by the bank. The investigation was called Operation Tradewinds. The IRS were able to secretly photograph a list of the bank's clients, while a bank executive was dining in Miami with an IRS informant. As a result of this information, the IRS planned to initiate a new investigation, called Project Haven, into the tax affairs of the people on the client list.[2] A prosecution of one of those clients eventually reached the United States Supreme Court as United States v. Payner.

However, the investigation was later dropped because of pressure from the CIA (according to the Wall Street Journal). The bank collapsed in 1977.[3] The CIA then used Nugan Hand Bank for funding some of their covert activities, as they had done with Castle Bank & Trust.


Note the involvement of former US government officials, military officers, and intelligence officers in all of these.

But there's nothing going on!

May 4, 2013 - 10:04pm

Sigh, must be the weekend

Let's not get all sensitive and wishy washy. Remember we are in this together.

@Jake I always appreciate your contributions. We are entitled to our opinions (about everything). Let us not hate on people for expressing their opinion. Even the bears.

Come on people, it's the internet. Despite the potential we use it to argue with strangers and watch video's of cats (and I'm allergic to cats).


PS Congrats Leafs fans. They really showed up tonight.

Mr. Fix
May 4, 2013 - 10:09pm

I like Jake

That's all.

Urban Roman
May 4, 2013 - 10:20pm

Yeah, I like Jake too

For what it's worth.

His analysis posts are on-topic, whether you agree with them or not.

May 4, 2013 - 10:32pm
May 4, 2013 - 10:38pm


Lots going on there Mr. Watcher.


Mr Fix

I like Jake too, just trying to hard in my opinion. Needs to mature some as we all had to do.

May 4, 2013 - 10:39pm


Good to see you back, we lost our friend Wolfie.

May 4, 2013 - 10:53pm

To my fellow stackers.

There is no way we can know how it will it end.

There is No way we can see the day or the time.

There is no way we can prevent the end.

We buy and we pray to...........................

All we can do is protect ourselves the best we can.

Good luck friends.

May 4, 2013 - 10:55pm

Damascus strike escalates hostilites

With this second and more powerful attack by Israel on a Syrian military base in Damascus, it appears that the igniting spark may have been struck. I sincerely hope not for everyone’s sake, but it is difficult to see how Syria or one of its allies fail to retaliate against Israel for this second and unmistakable escalation of hostilities.

May 4, 2013 - 10:55pm


I think we are getting to point where we need to all focus on the big picture how we are being controlled. I think more false flags are coming soon.

Check out this site


May 4, 2013 - 10:58pm


Lemme see....potential war in the middle east?

This should cause oil to drop, gold to drop while equities hammer out new record high day after day. Yeah.

Mr. Fix
May 4, 2013 - 11:02pm

This is my single biggest issue with TPTB:



The percentage of Americans that are working for themselves has never been lower in the history of the United States. Once upon a time, the United States was a paradise for entrepreneurs and small businesses, but now the control freak bureaucrats that dominate our society have created a system that absolutely eviscerates them. This is very unfortunate, because by murdering small business, the bureaucrats are destroying the primary engine of job growth in this country. One of the big reasons why there are not enough jobs in America today is because small business creation is way down. As I mentioned yesterday,entrepreneurs and small businesses are being absolutely devastated by rules, regulations, red tape and by oppressive levels of taxation. If anyone doubts that small business in the United States is dying, just look at the charts below. Sadly, this is what the bureaucrats that run things want. They don’t want us to be independent of the system. Instead, they are much more comfortable when as many of us as possible are heavily dependent on the system in one way or another. If all of us have to go running to the government or to one of the big corporations for a job, then we are much easier to control. But as the control freaks continue to construct their bureaucratic utopia, they are also killing off what once made the U.S. economy so great. [Read more...]

May 4, 2013 - 11:04pm

Israeli rockets blamed for Syria blasts -

Syrian state television says these explosions at a military research centre in Damascus were the result of an Israeli rocket attack. Video footage uploaded to the internet by activists shows huge balls of fire rising into the night sky. Reuters isn't able to independently verify the content of the footage which was obtained from a social media website. The blasts shook the Syrian capital in the early hours of Sunday. The research centre was previously targeted by Israel in January. Israel made no comment on the latest explosions. They came a day after an Israeli official said his country was behind an air strike targeting a consignment of missiles in Syria.


Video unavailable
May 4, 2013 - 11:08pm

Chew your own face off

Where the hell did you come from! Please go back to where it was!!!!!!!!!!

Are was that to be funny? A member for 1 week??

Strongsidejedi Pegasus
May 4, 2013 - 11:12pm

Losing track of Israel action

First time back on the board for about a week.

I've not been able to follow the situation in Syria with any sense of consistency because CNN is too busy covering the Jodi Arias sex trial (Who CARES!????) and Bloomberg is too busy running Facebook stories (Who cares!!!) and MSNBC is too busy running retrospective analysis on the decision to go into Iraq in 2002 and 2003 (Seriously, NBC-ELEVEN YEARS LATER??? ARE YOU F'ING Serious Rachel Maddow???)... so now we have IDF firing on Syria in outright hostility and there's no coverage of anything???

I'm confused... has there been 1 hit, 2 hits or 3 attacks on Syria over the last few days???

Assad is done. US forces are not going in. IDF has limited right to interdict IF they are really hitting rockets, but who knows???

Talk about a fog of war...

It's this scene from Kelley's Heroes:

Eastwood: We're Pulling Out And Pushing Forward!!
May 4, 2013 - 11:19pm

@strongsidejedi said "I'm confused:

... has there been 1 hit, 2 hits or 3 attacks on Syria over the last few days???"

This was the second attack by Israel on Syrian territory (over Lebanon) within 24-36 hours. First strike was allegedly on missile convoy:

Syrian report: Israel bombs outskirts of Damascus for second time in recent days:


Halfheartedhamster Mr. Fix
May 4, 2013 - 11:26pm

Single biggest issue TPTB

This is Agauthachristie, Mr Fix. Just so you know where Im coming from. It was easier to get a new screen name than deal with getting a new password.

Aren't you one of the (sadly, numerous) people on this site who think TPTB slaughtered all those kids at Sandy Hook supposedly to gain some advantage in the Gun control debate? And your biggest issue with TPTB is they make it hard for small businesses to flourish? Jesus Christ!

May 4, 2013 - 11:26pm

Ban Jake?

How about no?


Iron Cheney | Robot Chicken | Adult Swim
Strongsidejedi Pegasus
May 4, 2013 - 11:37pm

Pegasus - Thanks for the pointer

I just went to Al Jazeera and saw


It's awfully hard to distinguish official action from a government backed force and a false flag event.

Who knows? right?

At least someone did something about those munitions... talk about the smell of napalm in the morning...peee-uwww!

May 4, 2013 - 11:47pm

some thoughts on the Japanese government revising Constitution

Some facts first:

Japan relies almost entirely on US military outlays for defense.

Japan hasn't funded their own military without US approval.

Japan can not field armies, navies, or air force in cooperation with other G-8 nations due to the MacArthur constitution.

Japan can not unilaterally go nuclear under existing law.

Japan has huge supplies of spent nuke fuel rods in Fukushima that need processing.

Did the sequester hit Japan with a 10% reduction in troop readiness while the Norks were chanting their bellicose claims about nuking Tokyo?

If so, Japanese government officials may have finally reached the tipping point where they will revise the Constitution to enable reconstruction of military defenses for the Japanese, including possibly nuclear weapons.

The presence of the NorKor threat and clear evidence of nuclear missile capability will require Japan to arm with nuclear missiles to pose a mutual destruction threat on DPRK.

Japan has made comments for decades that they possessed the capability to assemble their own nuclear weapons within weeks if needed. It's been several months since they witnessed DPRK testing actual warheads within SLBM range of Japanese territory.

One wonders if Japanese aftershocks from Fukushima could act like a temblor but actually be a low yield nuke test.

How could you identify the difference with all the radiation in Fukushima anyway?

This isn't so much about absent US presence as it is about Japan countering the weak impression they are currently giving China, ROK, DPRK, and Russia.

I previously counted at least four border disputes in which the US was unwilling to take a strong position to defend Japanese territory.

Therefore, the Japanese government's position is pretty obvious. They have taken a beating on the international markets with the globe buying Yen for the carry trade. Now, they want to convert that global investment into arms...maybe even nuclear.

The nuclear genie is already out of the bottle.
The Japanese want their own Aladdin.

Mr. Fix
May 4, 2013 - 11:47pm

@ Agauthachristie

Yes, despite multiple false flags, death and destruction, merely to advance a political agenda,

taking away personal property, civil rights, and human dignity, I find that the way they have destroyed an individuals ability to operate a small business, and prosper through the fruits of their own labor the biggest disgrace of all.

For me, it's personal you have every right to be more outraged by the murder of innocent children,

in fact I don't blame you one bit there are too many atrocities attributable to our government to enumerate here, and I'm sure you will find many that outweigh what they have done to the small business community.

Like I said, it's personal.

Welcome back, I hope you store your password in a safe place, where you can find it this time.

Spartacus Rex
May 4, 2013 - 11:48pm

To All Those Jake Bashers…

Grow Up, Wise Up, & BUY A CLUE ALREADY!And 10,000 Hat Tips to Mama & Papa Blues for passing on that (apparently ‘UN’ Commonsense) DNA which can cut through all of the Snake Oil B.S. and simply focuses on the HOW to actually Come Out AHEAD!! All of you Jake Bashers can either use the ignore feature or otherwise simply go FLUFF yourselves!

The Watchman
May 4, 2013 - 11:49pm
Strongsidejedi Mr. Fix
May 4, 2013 - 11:54pm

@Mr Fix

I share your appraisal of the destruction of small business in our nation.

It's a crying shame.

Halfheartedhamster Mr. Fix
May 4, 2013 - 11:55pm


I dont mind the name change. I kinda like being a half hearted hamster. Just to be clear though, I dont think the government had anything to do with Sandy Hook other than to attempt to use the tragedy after the fact for political gain.

I think it is far more reasonable to believe that the shootings were the work of a disturbed young man.

Also, I agree with you that Govt policies in regards to small business are making a bad economy even worse.

Southern Cross
May 5, 2013 - 12:01am

This Does Not Sound Good

The US gov. has a history of false flags. Most false flags include a similar drill scheduled at the same time to use as cover if needed. This is how almost all false flags are positioned. Recently there has been alot of talk on the internet about the US gov. (Obama) preparing to use small nukes around the country to bring martial law and O's dictatorship. I would recommend everyone buy NBS (chemical, bio, nuclear) suits with gas masks right away. They cost about $60-75.00, army surplus off internet, per person. Isreali masks are quality. Most army surplus suits are acceptable - try MREdepot.com . Don't forget to buy extra filters. Without suits your family has no chance against chemical, bio, or nuclear fallout. Seems like they are planning nuclear. I know many find this hard to believe, but emotions are not the best for decisions. Use common sense and do your own research. Best wishes to everyone.


Nuclear Incident drills in Montana starting Monday

Saturday, May 4, 2013 20:10 Nuclear Incident drills in Montana starting Monday Posted By: AndiV
Saturday, 4-May-2013 15:56:35

If a nuclear incident happened in Montana, key
officials don’t want to be meeting each other for the first time.

Military personnel at Malmstrom Air Force Base
have regular exercises to test their response procedures and make sure
everyone knows what to do and when.

But starting Monday, their training will go to
a higher level.

A national exercise, known as NUWAIX 2013,
which is executed by U.S. Northern Command and sponsored by the Defense
Threat Reduction Agency, will bring about 1,000 people to Montana throughout
the exercise. The exercise isn’t expected to disrupt the community, but
locals may notice additional vehicle traffic in and out of the base,
increased helicopter activity and some personnel in hazmat suits or “tent
cities” at some of the exercise sites. The majority of the exercise will be
contained at Malmstrom and Fort Harrison in Helena.

Personnel from a variety of local and federal
agencies, primarily the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of
Energy, Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management Agency Region
VIII, will augment Malmstrom and other Air Force participants.

The exercise will be scenario based, and
participants will respond to a nuclear incident, which could be a DOE
shipment in the state, an attack on a nuclear missile site, hostile action on
base or the missile field or a range of scenarios.


“A range of scenarios..?” Like some
stolen explosives from nearby Red Lodge, MT being used to make the drill go


NESARA- Restore America – Galactic News

Source: https://nesaranews.blogspot.com/2013/05/nuclear-incident-drills-in-montana.html


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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