Looking Back and Looking Ahead

582
Fri, May 3, 2013 - 4:38pm

As we wrap this week and prepare for the next, let's review the charts and the CoT.

First, the Commitment of Traders report. It just came out ten minutes ago and here are my initial thoughts. Keep in mind a couple of things:

  1. For the reporting week, gold was UP $62 and its OI was also higher by 6,000 contracts
  2. Silver was also UP. It rose $1.36 but its OI fell by 15,500 or nearly 10%
  3. The silver OI drop was almost entirely due to May contract expiration and First Notice Day, which happened at the exact same time as the CoT survey, at the Comex close back on Tuesday
  4. After the survey, open interest rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down a 2-day total of $4.50 yet its OI rose by 8,000 contracts and silver 35¢ on an OI rise of 1,400.

GOLD

Continuing the trend, The Specs sold and The Cartel bought. For the week, the Large Specs dumped 3,900 longs and added 3,300 new shorts and the Small Specs are now NET SHORT by nearly 1,500 contracts after they dumped 2,400 longs while covering 800 shorts. Think about that for a moment....the most out-of-touch, ultimate-outsider group the Small Specs, are now NET SHORT. At $1450. For perspective, near the price peak on 8/16/11 the Small Specs were long 70,510 and short 21,749 for a net long ratio of 3.24:1. As of three days ago, they were long just 37,451 and short 38,940 for a net long ratio of 0.96:1. (As an aside, you should really go back and look at that entire CoT report from Harvey's archives. Marvel at the difference in positioning between then and now. https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_08_14_archive.html

To no surprise, The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to reduce their net short position by 8,800 contracts. Last week, though they added 5,255 new shorts, they also added 14,080 longs. This brings their net short ratio all the way down to just 1.56:1. Again, for the sake of comparison, look at that CoT from 8/16/11. At $1900 gold, The Cartel was long just 160,562 and short 409,409 for a net short ratio of 2.55:1.

Digging deeper, what's the big difference between then and now? On 8/16/11, The Gold Cartel was long 160,562. Back on Tuesday, they were long 170,211. However, back in August of 2011 they were short 409,409 and as of last Tuesday they were short just 265,774. Instead of letting gold get away from them when it suddenly became the only currency alternative to fiat, The Cartel moved to aggressively smash price, an operation that continues to this day. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their net short position by 153,284 contracts or 61.6%! Or looked at another way, they've been able to reduce their paper-physical liability by 15,328,400 ounces or 477 metric tonnes!

SILVER

Again, May13 contract expiration has distorted this report, regardless it's still quite interesting. Last week, the Large Specs dumped another 3,100 longs while covering just 300 shorts. This brings their net long ratio back down to just 1.52:1. The silver Small Specs were net neutral for the week are are still just barely net long.

The commercials in silver who have been taking on JPM in The Civil War actually dumped some longs last week into expiration. Their gross long position fell by 2,573 to 65,685. JPM et al seized upon the Large Spec and Comm selling and covered 5,507 shorts, down to 79,915. This lowers The Silver Cartel net short ratio all the way down to an incredible 1.22:1.

For perspective, let's once again review the CoT from 8/16/11, when silver was trading near $41.

  • Large Spec longs 8/16/11 = 32,697. Last Tuesday = 35,720
  • Large Spec shorts 8/16/11 = 10,769. Last Tuesday = 23,530
  • Large Spec net long ratio 8/16/11 = 3.06:1. Last Tuesday 1.52.1.
  • Comm Longs 8/16/11 = 34,555. Last Tuesday = 65,685
  • Comm Shorts 8/16/11 = 75,236. Last Tuesday = 79,915
  • Cartel net short ratio 8/16/11 = 2.18:1. Last Tuesday = 1.22:1.

Well, what stands out at you? Note that the Large Spec long and Cartel short positions are nearly unchanged over 20 months and a $17 drop in price. Then note the HUGE change in the Large Spec short and Commercial long positions. Also notice the difference between the commercial silver activity and the commercial gold activity. In gold over the exact same time period, the Comm long position is nearly unchanged. However, the silver Comm long position has nearly doubled!

Now I suppose we could really drill down into this and try to discern, by firm, how positions have changed. That's a topic for another day. For today, just think of this:

I laid out for you yesterday all of the many events that have occurred while gold has declined by $500. In summary, I concluded that late August of 2011 was a seminal period of time for the Forces of Darkness. They saw the collapse of confidence in every single fiat currency and the decision was made to attack gold and silver as they had become the only, true alternative to paper. This plan of action continues to this day. By containing gold and silver for the past 20 months, The Cartels have:

  • Reduced their net short position in gold by 153,284 contracts. This equates to 15,328,400 troy ounces of gold or roughly 477 metric tonnes.
  • Reduced their net short exposure in silver by 26,449 contracts or 132,245,000 ounces of silver or 4,113 metric tonnes.

As we head into next week, we should all feel pretty good about surviving this past one. Things looked pretty lousy back on Wednesday but we've since recovered and the charts don't look too bad. Now if we can just get a shove...and burst through resistance at $1485 and $24.80, we could quickly move right back to $1525 and $26 and be poised for an epic battle, fighting to move back into the 1525-1800 and 26-36 price ranges that had contained the metals since the August 2011 attack plan began.

OK, time to call it a week. Ole Turd's got a frosty beer waiting for him and I'm not sure if I can wait much longer. If I wrap up now, I might also be able to catch the Kentucky Oaks. By the way, I haven't studied the form yet but, from what I've seen, I like Normandy Invasion in The Derby tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!

TF

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  582 Comments

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Byzantium
May 4, 2013 - 2:58am

SilverDoctors site

That site is far worse.

Whenever I go there, there is a 50:50 chance that it screws up my machine, and I have to reboot.

I like that site, but I avoid it now. The Doc posted on this site an assurance that it was clean. I moot that it isn't, and he has failed to identify the problem. I visited it after his assurance, and same old problem.

Byzantium
May 4, 2013 - 2:54am

Site issues

I use Safari and also experience all the problems that Philipat describes.

In addition, the worst of all; losing a post when I try to submit it. I get an error message if I try to copy the text to the clipboard first, but if I type it originally in another software, then the format once posted to TFMR can be unpredictable (too small font etc).

May 4, 2013 - 2:22am

rtabit wrote: Site works

rtabit wrote:

Site works fine, you just have to clear your cache and cookies each time before you use it and not visit any other sites during your visit, what's the problem?

rtabit, you're twisting my words. I'm explaining that we use a very rigorous process for our testing to ensure there is nothing else causing interference. We are on TFMR every day, multiple times a day, and visit *many* other sites too. I can guarantee we have not seen the site issues that a few others are mentioning with a fully loaded browser and lots of local cache.

I'm not at all discounting that some people may be experiencing problems. However the fact that I can run the site on 10 different types of browsers and not see an issue would tend to lean toward a problem with someone's local environment.

Another suggestion would be for those having these issues to disable their local firewall and anti-virus software, and see if they can run the site without any problems. Sometimes these types of software can cause problems if sites are not fully whitelisted.

Moderator Janephilipat
May 4, 2013 - 2:14am

@philipat - check your anti-virus software

You wrote: "I'm using the latest versions of IE, Firefox and Chrome in both Windows 7 and 8 on Vaio, Asus and Compaq Laptops and a Samsung tablet. Same problem with all. And the same problem only with TFMR. Cache clean, cookies cleared and even after a reboot same problem. I run the Professional version of Avast on all my machines and am also set-up for weekly deep scans by Kaspersky and Malwarebytes. I have never has a virus on my system."

It seems almost incredible that you would have issues on every single browser, computer and tablet you use, when so many other people can use the site just fine. In the least, normally you might have an issue with one browser or computer (but not all) if it was just a bug on the website itself. So this would speak to an issue on your end, either with your network or with your computer setup. Since you say you have Avast Professional running on all your computers, then perhaps there's a conflict with it somehow. Sometimes anti-virus/firewall software blocks something and needs to be reset. I would check the software to see if tfmetalsreport.com or related URLs have been blocked or given restricted access in some fashion.

Note: We have made some changes to the site recently, that would cause a *temporary* issue if you happen to login at the moment the caching software is restarted. But that should go away. If it's on-going, check your firewall/virus software.

boomer sooner
May 4, 2013 - 2:13am

22lr, 2000 rds for 20 oz

FOR SALE: 2000 ROUNDS OF 22 LR ROUNDS.

Price: $ 525 Seller: Private Party Listings by this user

Listed On:Saturday, May 04, 2013Listed In:Ammo / ReloadingLocation: Oklahoma City (close by), Oklahoma City, Oklahoma - Map

Wish silver bullets went up when they ran short.

rtabit
May 4, 2013 - 2:08am

Issues

I get these issues also, don't know when last time was, when I do get them the site is slow. I was scrolling downing to tell people who cares if site narrows, stop crying, then I read "For each test, we cleared our local browser cache and cleared all cookies to simulate a clean environment. We also verified the testing devices were not used to visit other sites and did not have any viruses." Haa!! Site works fine, you just have to clear your cache and cookies each time before you use it and not visit any other sites during your visit, what's the problem? Site has been much faster past day or two. I agree with Admin, the test passed, there is nothing more they can do, it's out of their hands.

philipat
May 4, 2013 - 1:49am

@Admin

It's already early morning your time but there have been many others who have confirmed the same problems either by Hat Tip of my original post or Additional new Posts.

I'm using the latest versions of IE, Firefox and Chrome in both Windows 7 and 8 on Vaio, Asus and Compaq Laptops and a Samsung tablet. Same problem with all. And the same problem only with TFMR. Cache clean, cookies cleared and even after a reboot same problem. I run the Professional version of Avast on all my machines and am also set-up for weekly deep scans by Kaspersky and Malwarebytes. I have never has a virus on my system.

Anyway, thanks for trying.

boomer sooner
May 4, 2013 - 1:44am

@foggyroad

Thanks for the Garth Brooks. Drove down Garth Brooks Blvd not long ago. 1st time I heard Garth was in Stillwater, Ok while at school. He used to play at a corner bar, just him and a drummer. A few years later, walked into an OkC honky tonk and stopped dead. I was listening to a tune I had heard before and a buddy looked at me and said "there's ol' Garth". The rest is history. Wished I could have seen him and Reba when they played downtown. Was worken in the 'Oil Patch' then and not much time for scootin-a-boot.

Was going to tag another one of our locals but all I get is a blue ?, help anyone.

May 4, 2013 - 1:32am

I'm sorry philipat, but we

I'm sorry philipat, but we can no longer reproduce your problems. We made a couple of adjustments early in the week, and since then we have had no issues. We have tested the site on the following browsers:

  • Internet Explorer 8
  • Internet Explorer 9
  • Internet Explorer 10
  • Safari 5.1.7
  • Firefox 16
  • Firefox 20
  • Chrome 26
  • Various mobile and tablet devices

For each test, we cleared our local browser cache and cleared all cookies to simulate a clean environment. We also verified the testing devices were not used to visit other sites and did not have any viruses. In each test case, the site worked as expected, and there are no changes to the page layout.

As well, the hat tip problem we were seeing in the prior week was also resolved and we have not been able to reproduce it either.

I wish I could provide further assistance, however unless we start hearing of more widespread issues, the best recommendations I can provide are to thoroughly clear your browser of all local cache and cookies, upgrade to a newer version of browser (if possible), and/or run anti-virus software to determine if the device may be infected.

The Watchman
May 4, 2013 - 1:19am

Orb

Shug does not run them very often-second Derby entry since Easygoer,

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