Looking Back and Looking Ahead

582
Fri, May 3, 2013 - 4:38pm

As we wrap this week and prepare for the next, let's review the charts and the CoT.

First, the Commitment of Traders report. It just came out ten minutes ago and here are my initial thoughts. Keep in mind a couple of things:

  1. For the reporting week, gold was UP $62 and its OI was also higher by 6,000 contracts
  2. Silver was also UP. It rose $1.36 but its OI fell by 15,500 or nearly 10%
  3. The silver OI drop was almost entirely due to May contract expiration and First Notice Day, which happened at the exact same time as the CoT survey, at the Comex close back on Tuesday
  4. After the survey, open interest rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down a 2-day total of $4.50 yet its OI rose by 8,000 contracts and silver 35¢ on an OI rise of 1,400.

GOLD

Continuing the trend, The Specs sold and The Cartel bought. For the week, the Large Specs dumped 3,900 longs and added 3,300 new shorts and the Small Specs are now NET SHORT by nearly 1,500 contracts after they dumped 2,400 longs while covering 800 shorts. Think about that for a moment....the most out-of-touch, ultimate-outsider group the Small Specs, are now NET SHORT. At $1450. For perspective, near the price peak on 8/16/11 the Small Specs were long 70,510 and short 21,749 for a net long ratio of 3.24:1. As of three days ago, they were long just 37,451 and short 38,940 for a net long ratio of 0.96:1. (As an aside, you should really go back and look at that entire CoT report from Harvey's archives. Marvel at the difference in positioning between then and now. https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_08_14_archive.html

To no surprise, The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to reduce their net short position by 8,800 contracts. Last week, though they added 5,255 new shorts, they also added 14,080 longs. This brings their net short ratio all the way down to just 1.56:1. Again, for the sake of comparison, look at that CoT from 8/16/11. At $1900 gold, The Cartel was long just 160,562 and short 409,409 for a net short ratio of 2.55:1.

Digging deeper, what's the big difference between then and now? On 8/16/11, The Gold Cartel was long 160,562. Back on Tuesday, they were long 170,211. However, back in August of 2011 they were short 409,409 and as of last Tuesday they were short just 265,774. Instead of letting gold get away from them when it suddenly became the only currency alternative to fiat, The Cartel moved to aggressively smash price, an operation that continues to this day. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their net short position by 153,284 contracts or 61.6%! Or looked at another way, they've been able to reduce their paper-physical liability by 15,328,400 ounces or 477 metric tonnes!

SILVER

Again, May13 contract expiration has distorted this report, regardless it's still quite interesting. Last week, the Large Specs dumped another 3,100 longs while covering just 300 shorts. This brings their net long ratio back down to just 1.52:1. The silver Small Specs were net neutral for the week are are still just barely net long.

The commercials in silver who have been taking on JPM in The Civil War actually dumped some longs last week into expiration. Their gross long position fell by 2,573 to 65,685. JPM et al seized upon the Large Spec and Comm selling and covered 5,507 shorts, down to 79,915. This lowers The Silver Cartel net short ratio all the way down to an incredible 1.22:1.

For perspective, let's once again review the CoT from 8/16/11, when silver was trading near $41.

  • Large Spec longs 8/16/11 = 32,697. Last Tuesday = 35,720
  • Large Spec shorts 8/16/11 = 10,769. Last Tuesday = 23,530
  • Large Spec net long ratio 8/16/11 = 3.06:1. Last Tuesday 1.52.1.
  • Comm Longs 8/16/11 = 34,555. Last Tuesday = 65,685
  • Comm Shorts 8/16/11 = 75,236. Last Tuesday = 79,915
  • Cartel net short ratio 8/16/11 = 2.18:1. Last Tuesday = 1.22:1.

Well, what stands out at you? Note that the Large Spec long and Cartel short positions are nearly unchanged over 20 months and a $17 drop in price. Then note the HUGE change in the Large Spec short and Commercial long positions. Also notice the difference between the commercial silver activity and the commercial gold activity. In gold over the exact same time period, the Comm long position is nearly unchanged. However, the silver Comm long position has nearly doubled!

Now I suppose we could really drill down into this and try to discern, by firm, how positions have changed. That's a topic for another day. For today, just think of this:

I laid out for you yesterday all of the many events that have occurred while gold has declined by $500. In summary, I concluded that late August of 2011 was a seminal period of time for the Forces of Darkness. They saw the collapse of confidence in every single fiat currency and the decision was made to attack gold and silver as they had become the only, true alternative to paper. This plan of action continues to this day. By containing gold and silver for the past 20 months, The Cartels have:

  • Reduced their net short position in gold by 153,284 contracts. This equates to 15,328,400 troy ounces of gold or roughly 477 metric tonnes.
  • Reduced their net short exposure in silver by 26,449 contracts or 132,245,000 ounces of silver or 4,113 metric tonnes.

As we head into next week, we should all feel pretty good about surviving this past one. Things looked pretty lousy back on Wednesday but we've since recovered and the charts don't look too bad. Now if we can just get a shove...and burst through resistance at $1485 and $24.80, we could quickly move right back to $1525 and $26 and be poised for an epic battle, fighting to move back into the 1525-1800 and 26-36 price ranges that had contained the metals since the August 2011 attack plan began.

OK, time to call it a week. Ole Turd's got a frosty beer waiting for him and I'm not sure if I can wait much longer. If I wrap up now, I might also be able to catch the Kentucky Oaks. By the way, I haven't studied the form yet but, from what I've seen, I like Normandy Invasion in The Derby tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!

TF

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  582 Comments

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Gold Dog
May 6, 2013 - 11:21am

Watcher..

....right on the nose! Are they known for playing Innagodadavida on the windows?

Edit- I read your post...our yard is about 25 acres of deciduous trees.

Your friend,

Dog

May 6, 2013 - 11:13am
KerbouchardTF
May 6, 2013 - 11:09am

Thanks, Turd.  Appreciate the

Thanks, Turd. Appreciate the follow-through. A $9,000,000 inheritance turned into ol' yellah would definitely make a dent.

Sincerely,

K.

Zoltan
May 6, 2013 - 11:07am

New Thread

See you there.

Z

Watcher
May 6, 2013 - 10:59am

I'm a Birder It's

I'm a Birder

It's a Black-capped Chickadee up near Chicago land.

Further south the Carolina Chickadee takes over.

Here's the range maps for Chickadees.

https://www.birdsource.org/Birds/chickadees/

Yes, it's time to nest.

Gold Dog
May 6, 2013 - 10:57am

On TA and charting

Here is what you would have done using the yearly high and the simple moving average entry system.

Recall- after a commodity or major equity index hits a yearly high or low and then crosses the 80 day SMA you enter. You close out the position on either a 5% loss or the next time it crosses the 80 day SMA.

In this instance you would have sold a little above 165. And would still be short.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=gld&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F6%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=80&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=10&x=0&y=0

Bollocks
May 6, 2013 - 10:50am

@Kerbouchard

Regarding Turd's reply to your post, currently the best prices in the UK aren't where he suggests, they're here:

https://atkinsonsthejewellers.com/

I've pm'd you with more info.

Gold Dog
May 6, 2013 - 10:45am
Nick ElwayGeorge Clooney
May 6, 2013 - 10:42am

@xty well said!

xty said

Quote:
It is possible that we are just throwing a narrative on random facts, as so much of the time we tend to do, trying to make sense of things ... but those facts are not necessarily random and pattern seeking is the way to determine trend, one hopes.

I spent 2 years on "the brain wave project" Engineers working with computers to detect the patterns psychiatrists saw in sleep EEGs, trying to computer count a "K-wave" artifact in the record. It turned out that different psychiatrists got different "K-wave" counts (they each had their own human filters) and when I studied how the electronic input filters behaved on a random signal stream it seemed likely that many of the "K-waves" could result from a random signal due to the characteristics of the filter. You phrased it perfectly "throwing a narrative on random facts".

That's NOT to say there aren't real patterns in the data (REM, Stage I, II, III sleep all look verifiably real) As humans we are driven to construct a narrative that "explains" our sensory input stream. It is what we do. It is almost impossible not to ignore new data that conflicts with the narrative one has adopted.

ALMOST EVERYBODY thinks they've taken the red pill and are awake, including Obama supporters. I tend to trust people (like Turd) that can admit their narrative needs adjusting and examine and integrate new items into their narrative. Adamant know-it-alls are not trustworthy.

Texas SandmanAdolf_Hitler
May 6, 2013 - 10:40am

@Hitler

Yes on the exponential rise.

This assessment is based not on how things look right now, but a logarithmic monthly chart of silver (and gold) going back to the beginning of the bull market. We just kissed the trend at 22 silver & 1320 gold. Whether 24 holds or not is irrelevant to this analysis. Important thing is this. No trendline break. Trend present from the year 2000 or so in effect. That's key.

And Yes, Jake this is TA, but of the most mundane variety based only on price.

An exponential rise is certainly what I expect coming next.

Patience is required, and equanimity is the word, my friend.

Tex.

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