Looking Back and Looking Ahead

582
Fri, May 3, 2013 - 4:38pm

As we wrap this week and prepare for the next, let's review the charts and the CoT.

First, the Commitment of Traders report. It just came out ten minutes ago and here are my initial thoughts. Keep in mind a couple of things:

  1. For the reporting week, gold was UP $62 and its OI was also higher by 6,000 contracts
  2. Silver was also UP. It rose $1.36 but its OI fell by 15,500 or nearly 10%
  3. The silver OI drop was almost entirely due to May contract expiration and First Notice Day, which happened at the exact same time as the CoT survey, at the Comex close back on Tuesday
  4. After the survey, open interest rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down a 2-day total of $4.50 yet its OI rose by 8,000 contracts and silver 35¢ on an OI rise of 1,400.

GOLD

Continuing the trend, The Specs sold and The Cartel bought. For the week, the Large Specs dumped 3,900 longs and added 3,300 new shorts and the Small Specs are now NET SHORT by nearly 1,500 contracts after they dumped 2,400 longs while covering 800 shorts. Think about that for a moment....the most out-of-touch, ultimate-outsider group the Small Specs, are now NET SHORT. At $1450. For perspective, near the price peak on 8/16/11 the Small Specs were long 70,510 and short 21,749 for a net long ratio of 3.24:1. As of three days ago, they were long just 37,451 and short 38,940 for a net long ratio of 0.96:1. (As an aside, you should really go back and look at that entire CoT report from Harvey's archives. Marvel at the difference in positioning between then and now. https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_08_14_archive.html

To no surprise, The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to reduce their net short position by 8,800 contracts. Last week, though they added 5,255 new shorts, they also added 14,080 longs. This brings their net short ratio all the way down to just 1.56:1. Again, for the sake of comparison, look at that CoT from 8/16/11. At $1900 gold, The Cartel was long just 160,562 and short 409,409 for a net short ratio of 2.55:1.

Digging deeper, what's the big difference between then and now? On 8/16/11, The Gold Cartel was long 160,562. Back on Tuesday, they were long 170,211. However, back in August of 2011 they were short 409,409 and as of last Tuesday they were short just 265,774. Instead of letting gold get away from them when it suddenly became the only currency alternative to fiat, The Cartel moved to aggressively smash price, an operation that continues to this day. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their net short position by 153,284 contracts or 61.6%! Or looked at another way, they've been able to reduce their paper-physical liability by 15,328,400 ounces or 477 metric tonnes!

SILVER

Again, May13 contract expiration has distorted this report, regardless it's still quite interesting. Last week, the Large Specs dumped another 3,100 longs while covering just 300 shorts. This brings their net long ratio back down to just 1.52:1. The silver Small Specs were net neutral for the week are are still just barely net long.

The commercials in silver who have been taking on JPM in The Civil War actually dumped some longs last week into expiration. Their gross long position fell by 2,573 to 65,685. JPM et al seized upon the Large Spec and Comm selling and covered 5,507 shorts, down to 79,915. This lowers The Silver Cartel net short ratio all the way down to an incredible 1.22:1.

For perspective, let's once again review the CoT from 8/16/11, when silver was trading near $41.

  • Large Spec longs 8/16/11 = 32,697. Last Tuesday = 35,720
  • Large Spec shorts 8/16/11 = 10,769. Last Tuesday = 23,530
  • Large Spec net long ratio 8/16/11 = 3.06:1. Last Tuesday 1.52.1.
  • Comm Longs 8/16/11 = 34,555. Last Tuesday = 65,685
  • Comm Shorts 8/16/11 = 75,236. Last Tuesday = 79,915
  • Cartel net short ratio 8/16/11 = 2.18:1. Last Tuesday = 1.22:1.

Well, what stands out at you? Note that the Large Spec long and Cartel short positions are nearly unchanged over 20 months and a $17 drop in price. Then note the HUGE change in the Large Spec short and Commercial long positions. Also notice the difference between the commercial silver activity and the commercial gold activity. In gold over the exact same time period, the Comm long position is nearly unchanged. However, the silver Comm long position has nearly doubled!

Now I suppose we could really drill down into this and try to discern, by firm, how positions have changed. That's a topic for another day. For today, just think of this:

I laid out for you yesterday all of the many events that have occurred while gold has declined by $500. In summary, I concluded that late August of 2011 was a seminal period of time for the Forces of Darkness. They saw the collapse of confidence in every single fiat currency and the decision was made to attack gold and silver as they had become the only, true alternative to paper. This plan of action continues to this day. By containing gold and silver for the past 20 months, The Cartels have:

  • Reduced their net short position in gold by 153,284 contracts. This equates to 15,328,400 troy ounces of gold or roughly 477 metric tonnes.
  • Reduced their net short exposure in silver by 26,449 contracts or 132,245,000 ounces of silver or 4,113 metric tonnes.

As we head into next week, we should all feel pretty good about surviving this past one. Things looked pretty lousy back on Wednesday but we've since recovered and the charts don't look too bad. Now if we can just get a shove...and burst through resistance at $1485 and $24.80, we could quickly move right back to $1525 and $26 and be poised for an epic battle, fighting to move back into the 1525-1800 and 26-36 price ranges that had contained the metals since the August 2011 attack plan began.

OK, time to call it a week. Ole Turd's got a frosty beer waiting for him and I'm not sure if I can wait much longer. If I wrap up now, I might also be able to catch the Kentucky Oaks. By the way, I haven't studied the form yet but, from what I've seen, I like Normandy Invasion in The Derby tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!

TF

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  582 Comments

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Mr. Fix
May 5, 2013 - 11:06pm

This could be the diversion that the Evil Empire needs.

WHAT WOULD WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND SYRIA DO TO THE ALREADY FRAGILE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

MAY 5, 2013 BY THE DOC 5 COMMENTS

War is a horrible thing. Just ask anyone that has ever been in the middle of it. And in this day and age governments around the world possess weapons of such incalculable power that war should be unthinkable. In future wars, we could literally see millions of people killedon a single day. Nobody should want that or look forward to that. Unfortunately, the next major regional war in the Middle East appears to be closer than ever. But nobody should want it to actually happen. During the next major regional war in the Middle East we will likely see death on a scale that is unprecedented. It won’t be like the wars of 1967 or 1973. It will likely be a fight to the death where nothing is held back. You see, the truth is that most Americans have no idea what is really going on in the Middle East. There are ancient grudges and ancient hatreds that go back for thousands of years. There is no “peace plan” that is going to suddenly make everything okay. The Middle East is a simmering volcano of hate and resentment that could erupt at any moment. [Read more...]

Southern Cross
May 5, 2013 - 11:02pm

Relax Bugs

I believe physical demand will dictate the level of manipulation. Paper markets can not allow the price to fall very far while demand remains high. I believe right now the spread has to remain tight or even allowed to rise above $1500 for gold to lower the physical demand. The paper thugs are walking a tight rope. Any increase in physical demand and the paper market quickly implodes. The paper players have deep deep pockets but what they don't have is unlimited sellers of physical gold and silver. This is where the crack grows. Just my opinion.

There's no reason to fear big drops right now unless demand for physical drops off substantially.

Texas Sandman
May 5, 2013 - 11:02pm

@southerncross

While I agree the EE has to worry about invalidating the crimex if they drop prices much more (not to mention the paper price of silver is close to the true cost of production --- so mines will start closing if they drop it to say $20), perhaps they can hope physical demand will dwindle here if they just hold the price in a range below the $1526/$26 breakdown for a period as they cover shorts opportunistically.

In general, I agree the cartel is looking at the possibility of losing much of their inventory at the crimex with a further price drop. In fact the number standing for delivery at present is rather large & growing as regards may silver. Maybe they can offer a cash premium to get those pesky people standing to go away. However, if those are industrial users say standing to get bullion to supply retail, etc., maybe the premiums they would have to offer would be quite large indeed.

Zoltan
May 5, 2013 - 10:57pm

One Hundred Million NDU (April Monthly)

That's a lot (Ruprecht).

Ounces, Trades, Contracts? Who cares.

I call Bull Shit.

Z

Texas Sandman
May 5, 2013 - 10:46pm

$5K/oz is cheap

I'll be interested in selling my gold & buying stocks only when the dow trades beneath the price of gold. Then I'll start thinking about it.

Until then, there is much danger in the stock market and much safety in PMs.

Zoltan
May 5, 2013 - 10:44pm

@Monedas

Don't be fooled Brother. 5K an ounce?, maybe a few but not unless the wolf is at the door. Wolves make nice fur coats, 7.62x39.

Z

Monedas
May 5, 2013 - 10:41pm

Kiss the gold goodbye !

The manipulators have bottomless pockets .... of play money .... they can slam the PMs at will .... bleed the poor suckas who think they can get rich in the paper markets .... they can buy up physical .... run the price up to $5,000 per trounce .... price suppression will become price aggression .... strong hands will sell at those prices .... they don't care how much they pay .... it's not real money .... only the grittiest .... meanest .... rattle snake hoarders .... like Monedas .... will not be fooled ! Get some backbone .... practice being mean .... it's fun ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad You Ain't Seen Nuthin' Yet World Tour

stealthbear
May 5, 2013 - 10:32pm

Kansas takes a stand

I posted this in the DOTS forum previously and moved it here.

For the first time in a long time, I am proud to say I am from Kansas. Please support our legislators and governor for passing gun rights legislation with some "teeth". Here's how:

3. Call Sam Brownback. Flood his phone line with messages of encouragement and support. Let him know that the people have his back – that’s how governors show courage. Brownback has a chance to act like a hero to the entire country. In fact, people all over the country should send him letters in support – he’s going to need all the help he can get.

CALLS (for Kansans only) 785-296-3232

Mail (rest of the country)

Office of the Governor
Capitol, 300 SW 10th Ave., Ste. 241S
Topeka, KS 66612-1590

(or email here)

Thanks!

Stealth

Zoltan
May 5, 2013 - 9:58pm

ND Volume

Forget the price. If you want to know how corrupted the silver market it just watch the volume (1 minute to one month, your choice, doesn't matter, same conclusion).

Z

AlexCojones
May 5, 2013 - 9:55pm

All Truth is a Conspiracy Theory -

Why Syria? - by SouthernCross

1. Syria's central bank is state owned.

2. Syria has no loans from the IMF.

Reminds me of this great graphic. Libya had no central bank and who knows where all Libya's gold went after "Liberation."

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