Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Fri, May 3, 2013 - 4:38pm

As we wrap this week and prepare for the next, let's review the charts and the CoT.

First, the Commitment of Traders report. It just came out ten minutes ago and here are my initial thoughts. Keep in mind a couple of things:

  1. For the reporting week, gold was UP $62 and its OI was also higher by 6,000 contracts
  2. Silver was also UP. It rose $1.36 but its OI fell by 15,500 or nearly 10%
  3. The silver OI drop was almost entirely due to May contract expiration and First Notice Day, which happened at the exact same time as the CoT survey, at the Comex close back on Tuesday
  4. After the survey, open interest rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down a 2-day total of $4.50 yet its OI rose by 8,000 contracts and silver 35¢ on an OI rise of 1,400.


Continuing the trend, The Specs sold and The Cartel bought. For the week, the Large Specs dumped 3,900 longs and added 3,300 new shorts and the Small Specs are now NET SHORT by nearly 1,500 contracts after they dumped 2,400 longs while covering 800 shorts. Think about that for a moment....the most out-of-touch, ultimate-outsider group the Small Specs, are now NET SHORT. At $1450. For perspective, near the price peak on 8/16/11 the Small Specs were long 70,510 and short 21,749 for a net long ratio of 3.24:1. As of three days ago, they were long just 37,451 and short 38,940 for a net long ratio of 0.96:1. (As an aside, you should really go back and look at that entire CoT report from Harvey's archives. Marvel at the difference in positioning between then and now. https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_08_14_archive.html

To no surprise, The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to reduce their net short position by 8,800 contracts. Last week, though they added 5,255 new shorts, they also added 14,080 longs. This brings their net short ratio all the way down to just 1.56:1. Again, for the sake of comparison, look at that CoT from 8/16/11. At $1900 gold, The Cartel was long just 160,562 and short 409,409 for a net short ratio of 2.55:1.

Digging deeper, what's the big difference between then and now? On 8/16/11, The Gold Cartel was long 160,562. Back on Tuesday, they were long 170,211. However, back in August of 2011 they were short 409,409 and as of last Tuesday they were short just 265,774. Instead of letting gold get away from them when it suddenly became the only currency alternative to fiat, The Cartel moved to aggressively smash price, an operation that continues to this day. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their net short position by 153,284 contracts or 61.6%! Or looked at another way, they've been able to reduce their paper-physical liability by 15,328,400 ounces or 477 metric tonnes!


Again, May13 contract expiration has distorted this report, regardless it's still quite interesting. Last week, the Large Specs dumped another 3,100 longs while covering just 300 shorts. This brings their net long ratio back down to just 1.52:1. The silver Small Specs were net neutral for the week are are still just barely net long.

The commercials in silver who have been taking on JPM in The Civil War actually dumped some longs last week into expiration. Their gross long position fell by 2,573 to 65,685. JPM et al seized upon the Large Spec and Comm selling and covered 5,507 shorts, down to 79,915. This lowers The Silver Cartel net short ratio all the way down to an incredible 1.22:1.

For perspective, let's once again review the CoT from 8/16/11, when silver was trading near $41.

  • Large Spec longs 8/16/11 = 32,697. Last Tuesday = 35,720
  • Large Spec shorts 8/16/11 = 10,769. Last Tuesday = 23,530
  • Large Spec net long ratio 8/16/11 = 3.06:1. Last Tuesday 1.52.1.
  • Comm Longs 8/16/11 = 34,555. Last Tuesday = 65,685
  • Comm Shorts 8/16/11 = 75,236. Last Tuesday = 79,915
  • Cartel net short ratio 8/16/11 = 2.18:1. Last Tuesday = 1.22:1.

Well, what stands out at you? Note that the Large Spec long and Cartel short positions are nearly unchanged over 20 months and a $17 drop in price. Then note the HUGE change in the Large Spec short and Commercial long positions. Also notice the difference between the commercial silver activity and the commercial gold activity. In gold over the exact same time period, the Comm long position is nearly unchanged. However, the silver Comm long position has nearly doubled!

Now I suppose we could really drill down into this and try to discern, by firm, how positions have changed. That's a topic for another day. For today, just think of this:

I laid out for you yesterday all of the many events that have occurred while gold has declined by $500. In summary, I concluded that late August of 2011 was a seminal period of time for the Forces of Darkness. They saw the collapse of confidence in every single fiat currency and the decision was made to attack gold and silver as they had become the only, true alternative to paper. This plan of action continues to this day. By containing gold and silver for the past 20 months, The Cartels have:

  • Reduced their net short position in gold by 153,284 contracts. This equates to 15,328,400 troy ounces of gold or roughly 477 metric tonnes.
  • Reduced their net short exposure in silver by 26,449 contracts or 132,245,000 ounces of silver or 4,113 metric tonnes.

As we head into next week, we should all feel pretty good about surviving this past one. Things looked pretty lousy back on Wednesday but we've since recovered and the charts don't look too bad. Now if we can just get a shove...and burst through resistance at $1485 and $24.80, we could quickly move right back to $1525 and $26 and be poised for an epic battle, fighting to move back into the 1525-1800 and 26-36 price ranges that had contained the metals since the August 2011 attack plan began.

OK, time to call it a week. Ole Turd's got a frosty beer waiting for him and I'm not sure if I can wait much longer. If I wrap up now, I might also be able to catch the Kentucky Oaks. By the way, I haven't studied the form yet but, from what I've seen, I like Normandy Invasion in The Derby tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


May 7, 2013 - 9:45am


Please dont worry T Rex, wezzzzz got the main man at the epicenter, ditching religious institutions long ago, remembering he picked silly, and silly is just a tool, holding hands along the walk, and why a retch like silly, one can only conclude following it through four orders, it must be love.

May 7, 2013 - 9:08am

Aspect II

number two aspect of the attack plan is its scope, so wash your mouth, but on the back page looking through the looking glass whereon all dont care about halitosis, and you can stinkingly speak your mind in a grand free for all to see, but now that the stars role has been defined, somewhat, lets look at the scope of the salvo, and here, a three prong attack at the dog and pony show is the plan to sink leviathan with and including the concurrent launch of precision and pseudo and gangland torpedoes, all of which with on board guidance systems by our hired guns at the vitals of ship to sink the to sink with the ship dead in the water and stop at least thirteen years of manipulation, and so, first sure shot fires off first and forum shops, and one of them gun totting conservative states seems best to avoid the cesspool and the black robe reaper there already showing its colors, as that is a loser from the get go, and jurisdiction maybe a tough nut, but this war and the stakes are high, sure shot then fires another bullet and defines subject matter jurisdiction, and the then fires a third bullet and defines causes and actions, and here, limit the scope, as this war only has two possible plays by the hired guns and the akulas before the circus master, a first action is using clients pooled funds has a defense hedge, and the second is the use in house funds to support the first, but money is fungible so it dont really matter, and the eight ball must score, and so the scope is limited to only two deadly actions for focusing the guidance systems, and so, next silly putty and the hired guns are made of record, the hire guns are used to specially yak yaks at the dog and pony show, as silly putty is made of counsel for the general yak top down, even though silly putty is pulling strings behind the eight ball, out of sight and out of mind, so dont talk back, and the foot shooter is probably best to get silly putty in play at the dog and pony show working with the hyena, while dead ringer is best for developing the torpedoes generally and the support graphics by the arctic goalie, for the concurrent spread spectrum launch at the vitals, and so the hird guns are focused, and the torpedoes are in the water for the guided spread spectrum precision torpedo launch, and now since this is the dog and pony show, damages are not really in play at this time only a probably of success is required showing the legally sufficient proximal cause, and so, back to silly putty who can see the forest and put it all together for the circus master, and here the top concern is directed at the circus master showing the conflict between the cesspool supporting the printer supporting leviathan and the supreme black robe reapers and ethically required to follow precedence on one huge side and the oath and freedom of the people on the other huge side, and that is a personal conflict for the circus master and really is the heart of the matter, and that is why it is important to forum shop for the best likely circus master under local political presure and is preferably god fearing to respect his oath personally made to his maker and legitimate concerns for the local people, of whom leviathan has trapped on food stamps nationally to the tune of fifty million and bugs trapped by leviathan through manipulation, and another hundred and fifty million trapped as tax mules by those in the cesspool, yes, the stakes are very high in deed, so, first up is the top down yak, to call out the circus master on this conflict, the circus master shoulders becoming heavily weighted, so that, the circus master takes the deadly action very seriously, and thus will focus of the facts, so follow the slam dunk action at the dog and pony show for the glorious enlightenment, to have the circus master focus where it really counts, and thus, the dog and pony show at a stationary stage and with proper jurisdiction and deadly causes are set in stone, with the guns of the magnificent seven focused on the vitals, and thus, to the precision torpedoes who need some protection as well from the akulas, and here data is bifurcated with one set for primary support of the weapon head of the torpedo that is protected, and a second set of misdirection garbage of old stuff, the head and garbage well separated as part of preliminary preparation, the garbage is coughed up by orders so than the akulas are expensively and logistically looking in the wrong places on wild goose hunts, while the heads are developed for the dog and pony show and presented under work product, and here, the arctic goalie would be great for generating eye marveling charts and graphs at the dog and pony show, for sure fire impact, working in concert with the other two precision torpedoes, the hyena and the investigator, who have the main responsibility for striking the deadly blow at the vitals of leviathan, and thus, tre hombres are working with silly putty to make sure the complexity is reduced to simplicity for presentation before the circus master and the Joe six pack and the world so that much pressure is placed upon the focusing circus master, and so, on to damages, which must be kept simple to prevent the bog down, and hence a singular celestial complainer having only two bullion species AGE and ASE on home turf is prefered, so that, the conflict is well focused with short communication lines and minimized logistics, for the slam dunk at the dog and pony show, which also concurrently does not distract the hired guns and keep them well focused, and thus the eight ball is well focused with the torpedoes well guided with a top down silly putty of counsel managing wearing five hats for cross dimensional intercourse, for the score for kill the snake out right on the first blow at the dog and pony show, and silly putty will work in the silly team, so coordinated with defined roles, for maximum cost effective efficiency including guided precision torpedoes going for the vitals while akulas are misdirected and the destroyers humiliated, and this is war, and no holds barred, and thus, now focus is on the destroyers, and here, silly working with the hindsight capitalist and the investigator will focus in reply onto the business operational goods delivered up by leviathan amply supported by their destroyers, or so they thinks, which goods should be humiliated on the record as this is war, and this is where silly putty and the hyena focus on the insider information coughed up during the set up, to understand leviathan internal business operations to show that in house money and clients money are pooled for the manipulator as on going shake out of the bugs and small speculator and a shake out of our freedoms, and all of this before the circus master, and so, andy dandy and the star gets us before the circus master when moving whereas silly putty and the hyena focus act as set up counter punchers in reply, and thus humiliate the destroyers on the stand and on the record, and taking the destroyers completely out of action, dead in the water, to embarrass them for all to see, and thus, there are only two component salvos allowing by the circus rules, one of which is the first the moving move on the chess board and the second move is the reply, and both are covered well, with arctic goalie and andy dandy supporting stars during the first launch back up by the pseudo and gangland torpedoes, and, the hyena and andy dandy and the arctic goalie supporting stars backed up by the celestial complainer during the second launch, to completely out gun leviathan, aiming for the vitals, with silly putting swearing five ass hats including but not limited to politics and military and engineering and bullion and legal skilled arts as amply supported by successful employment and as amply supported by the resume and as amply supported by examples, and, for supporting the slam dunk at the dog and pony show for liberation of the bugs and freedom lovers, to start the dominoes falling one by one, and there you have the scope of the salvo launch at the dog and pony show in the greatest take down of all time by the take downers, who are the center of the eight ball, for all to see, plainly of course, for its love and war.

Video unavailable

New Year's Day - U2
Spartacus RexSilverSurfers
May 7, 2013 - 3:13am

Re: Aspect I (?)


Aut insanit homo, aut versus facit.

(i.e. The fellow is either insane or he is composing verses)

So much for “streamlined voodoo and chromium plated theology”

Aced those LSATs and graduated summa cum laude did you Hamilton Burger?

There is only ONE WAY to get it Right, and you ain’t found it yet.

BTW: You just might want to Google: Robert (Bobby) Kahre

Wisdom is the principal thing; Therefore get wisdom. And in all your
getting, Get understanding. Proverbs 4:7

May 6, 2013 - 7:46pm

The trouble with doing nothing...

is... You never quite know when you're done.

May 6, 2013 - 6:19pm


If you got nothing to do, and plenty of time to do it, come on up!!!! I can relate!!!

ROFLMAO!!! way funny, like, "taught you did that yesterday.... I aint done yet"

too funny ...

May 6, 2013 - 4:10pm

All hail Bernanke

S&P futures closing at all time highs. Gotta hand it to the Bernank. He is a sheep dog like no other in history. But what bugs me is that he is unelected. He is running the country and ruining the economy. He is the one with his mug on the magazine covers. And not one US citizen voted for him to have this much power.

I think I could stomach the lies and manipulation a little better if it were coming from the president--like with Roosevelt's confiscation order or Nixon's suspension of Bretton-Woods. At least then the elected government can be blamed. But Obama is doing nothing except quietly ripping apart the heart of American freedoms and spending us into debt slavery. And when this economy finally collapses, Bernanke will be in hiding somewhere and Obama & congress will be saying, "Who could have seen this coming? Its not our fault! It is those speculators and the war!" And how can you blame Bernanke, he moved on several months ago.

At least history can pin other large gold events on a president. This time? History may never figure out what really happened.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

May 6, 2013 - 3:48pm

Did someone say "Chickadee"?

Good for a few laughs...

"My Little Chickadee" Trailer 1940
May 6, 2013 - 3:24pm

Aspect I

number one of the attack plan first involves getting makeup on the star for his staring role, and in careful review of the star over the many months, the star is in sillys cross hairs as the celestial complainer, and hence one in the same, and many other candidates are possible minimally holding one AGE and one ASE, for sufficient damages purposes, but for the time being, let assume the star will be the celestial complainer, but over the time spent carefully reading every post of star by silly putty, the star appears to have that terrible thing going on including paper assets and forbiddingly actually trades paper assents on the exchanges, a super huge no no, probably to make a buck for food as we all have to live, and so can think of star currently as a spy in the hard core stacking bug ranks, which hard core bugs to not trade come heck or high water, which staring role should now be transformed considerably before the initial salvo, the purpose here is to secure cost-effective short communication lines between the manager and the star, and, the star can now enhance and modify those communication lines with minimal logistics, which is significant to winning the war, and thus, there will be several instructions placed upon the star, as the star is made useful in showing convincingly that there such maniputations from the the commitment of trading folks and from technical chart action as daily presented, but presented summarily as a supplemental psuedo torpedo on the stand with evidence over current bull market time, which star could appear as a self-serving psuedo torpedo in a dual role in a cost effective limited man power space, sillys personal favorite type on stand, and thus acting as a pseudo precision torpedo, for initial salvo explosion at the vitals of the ship, and hence, trading paper and respective positions with natural counter party risks thereof should be shredded and all such position liquified so as to place the eight ball only in us minted one ounce AGEs and ASEs posture from the get go, and that includes eliminating numismatics and such odd ball coinage as well as all paper positions and supporting documents and with brockage accounts zero out and cease all further brokerage house documentations from entering the home, so that all is very simple for control of command and control, and thus we can send the star on operations effectively on preops missions for a huge misdirection placed upon the enemy sharks, hereinafter called akulas, with is Russian for shark, hence, the silly team will have our sharks and leviathan have their akulas before the black robe reaper, now, the trick is minimize akula attacks from the outset personally upon the star, the star saving necessary commitment and analysis chart data for person reference, which will be discoverable along with documents showing basis of such standard one ounce coinage kept during liquidfications, and such discovery personally served upon the celestial complainer, thus, there are three objectives of the preops namely to secure short communication lines and waste akula assets and misdirect the akulas, as well as show necessary damages holding on to only such coinage, and all three objectives are done by the same step taken of this aspect of the attack plan, and, by reducing to standard coinage and their respective documents, as suggested, and the shredding of extraneous documents, the expected discovery demands are simple to comply with, as, akula examinations of opposing documents are wildly intimidatingly searched by the akulas, as standard obscene traditional practices of sharks and akulas, while currently shredding of such paper position documents in the stars personal possession, and hence, there is a need to produced for examination with minimal logistics, yet these shredded documents are available on line for personal tax reporting and through akula discover subpoenas for production, as, the akulas must look elsewhere for sought after documents through expensive third party production notices, and hence, expensively misdirecting the akulas, thus saving the star the trouble, which in the long run, work outs best for the star, and also, as to any businesses operated, the star should appoint a respective members of such businesses and appoint them as respective document heads, so that the personal home should be purged of all business documents relevant except as to those us minted coinage suggest showing their basis, so that, the akulas must by discovery again search third parties being your businesses and brokerages only through an appointed documents manager, and thus the home and the star are secured as best able from the akulas, and there will be legions of discovery attacks from the akulas, so the star should nip that in the bud, so that star and those managers can better communicate and comply as will be ordered, as akulas time and money is spent on wild goose chases, relieving the star and thereby making time for the star to then go on the offensive during the initial salvo, to put in his expertise of trading commitments and chart analysis in play, thus, the star complains and misdirects the akulas, because, as part of the conventional shark world, harassment and opposition waste is always part of the game, to milk the clients as usual, and the star must be protected, and the star can then effectively be used in combination with the precision torpedoes, and thus, the initial salvo including a full spectrum spread launch toward leviathan including the precision torpedoes and the pseudo torpedo and gang torpedoes with offensive and misdirection torpedoes fired concurrenty, and, while the akulas are misdirected on wild goose chases, and the akulas can not lethargically focus, while akula destroyers are overwhelmed from all the many precision and pseudo and gang torpedoes, all of which will be very well guided toward the vitals of the ship, as the target, to sink the ship notwithstanding destroyer interference during initial salvo, and when getting both offensive and defensive assets in play, a high aspect ratio is a must and here well served, with akulas on wild goose chases during preops while your torpedoes bypass their destroyers, and hence, this preparation serves to focus the eight ball, while concurrently misdirecting the akulas, for the slam dunk at the dog and pony show, for creating a global kenysian scandal.

Billy Idol - Eyes Without A Face
Survivor - Eye Of The Tiger
The Warrior - Scandal (HQ Audio)
May 6, 2013 - 11:56am


Please check your pm

WatcherGold Dog
May 6, 2013 - 11:30am

Are they known for playing

Are they known for playing Innagodadavida on the windows?

No, but they do like Vanilla Fudge. ;-)

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/14

12/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/15 8:30 ET Empire State Index
12/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/16 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
12/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/18 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
12/18 10:00 ET LEIII

Key Economic Events Week of 12/7

12/8 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
12/9 10:00 ET JOLTS jop openings
12/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
12/10 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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