Looking Back and Looking Ahead

582
Fri, May 3, 2013 - 4:38pm

As we wrap this week and prepare for the next, let's review the charts and the CoT.

First, the Commitment of Traders report. It just came out ten minutes ago and here are my initial thoughts. Keep in mind a couple of things:

  1. For the reporting week, gold was UP $62 and its OI was also higher by 6,000 contracts
  2. Silver was also UP. It rose $1.36 but its OI fell by 15,500 or nearly 10%
  3. The silver OI drop was almost entirely due to May contract expiration and First Notice Day, which happened at the exact same time as the CoT survey, at the Comex close back on Tuesday
  4. After the survey, open interest rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down a 2-day total of $4.50 yet its OI rose by 8,000 contracts and silver 35¢ on an OI rise of 1,400.

GOLD

Continuing the trend, The Specs sold and The Cartel bought. For the week, the Large Specs dumped 3,900 longs and added 3,300 new shorts and the Small Specs are now NET SHORT by nearly 1,500 contracts after they dumped 2,400 longs while covering 800 shorts. Think about that for a moment....the most out-of-touch, ultimate-outsider group the Small Specs, are now NET SHORT. At $1450. For perspective, near the price peak on 8/16/11 the Small Specs were long 70,510 and short 21,749 for a net long ratio of 3.24:1. As of three days ago, they were long just 37,451 and short 38,940 for a net long ratio of 0.96:1. (As an aside, you should really go back and look at that entire CoT report from Harvey's archives. Marvel at the difference in positioning between then and now. https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_08_14_archive.html

To no surprise, The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to reduce their net short position by 8,800 contracts. Last week, though they added 5,255 new shorts, they also added 14,080 longs. This brings their net short ratio all the way down to just 1.56:1. Again, for the sake of comparison, look at that CoT from 8/16/11. At $1900 gold, The Cartel was long just 160,562 and short 409,409 for a net short ratio of 2.55:1.

Digging deeper, what's the big difference between then and now? On 8/16/11, The Gold Cartel was long 160,562. Back on Tuesday, they were long 170,211. However, back in August of 2011 they were short 409,409 and as of last Tuesday they were short just 265,774. Instead of letting gold get away from them when it suddenly became the only currency alternative to fiat, The Cartel moved to aggressively smash price, an operation that continues to this day. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their net short position by 153,284 contracts or 61.6%! Or looked at another way, they've been able to reduce their paper-physical liability by 15,328,400 ounces or 477 metric tonnes!

SILVER

Again, May13 contract expiration has distorted this report, regardless it's still quite interesting. Last week, the Large Specs dumped another 3,100 longs while covering just 300 shorts. This brings their net long ratio back down to just 1.52:1. The silver Small Specs were net neutral for the week are are still just barely net long.

The commercials in silver who have been taking on JPM in The Civil War actually dumped some longs last week into expiration. Their gross long position fell by 2,573 to 65,685. JPM et al seized upon the Large Spec and Comm selling and covered 5,507 shorts, down to 79,915. This lowers The Silver Cartel net short ratio all the way down to an incredible 1.22:1.

For perspective, let's once again review the CoT from 8/16/11, when silver was trading near $41.

  • Large Spec longs 8/16/11 = 32,697. Last Tuesday = 35,720
  • Large Spec shorts 8/16/11 = 10,769. Last Tuesday = 23,530
  • Large Spec net long ratio 8/16/11 = 3.06:1. Last Tuesday 1.52.1.
  • Comm Longs 8/16/11 = 34,555. Last Tuesday = 65,685
  • Comm Shorts 8/16/11 = 75,236. Last Tuesday = 79,915
  • Cartel net short ratio 8/16/11 = 2.18:1. Last Tuesday = 1.22:1.

Well, what stands out at you? Note that the Large Spec long and Cartel short positions are nearly unchanged over 20 months and a $17 drop in price. Then note the HUGE change in the Large Spec short and Commercial long positions. Also notice the difference between the commercial silver activity and the commercial gold activity. In gold over the exact same time period, the Comm long position is nearly unchanged. However, the silver Comm long position has nearly doubled!

Now I suppose we could really drill down into this and try to discern, by firm, how positions have changed. That's a topic for another day. For today, just think of this:

I laid out for you yesterday all of the many events that have occurred while gold has declined by $500. In summary, I concluded that late August of 2011 was a seminal period of time for the Forces of Darkness. They saw the collapse of confidence in every single fiat currency and the decision was made to attack gold and silver as they had become the only, true alternative to paper. This plan of action continues to this day. By containing gold and silver for the past 20 months, The Cartels have:

  • Reduced their net short position in gold by 153,284 contracts. This equates to 15,328,400 troy ounces of gold or roughly 477 metric tonnes.
  • Reduced their net short exposure in silver by 26,449 contracts or 132,245,000 ounces of silver or 4,113 metric tonnes.

As we head into next week, we should all feel pretty good about surviving this past one. Things looked pretty lousy back on Wednesday but we've since recovered and the charts don't look too bad. Now if we can just get a shove...and burst through resistance at $1485 and $24.80, we could quickly move right back to $1525 and $26 and be poised for an epic battle, fighting to move back into the 1525-1800 and 26-36 price ranges that had contained the metals since the August 2011 attack plan began.

OK, time to call it a week. Ole Turd's got a frosty beer waiting for him and I'm not sure if I can wait much longer. If I wrap up now, I might also be able to catch the Kentucky Oaks. By the way, I haven't studied the form yet but, from what I've seen, I like Normandy Invasion in The Derby tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  582 Comments

  Refresh
SilverSurfers
May 8, 2013 - 9:45am

Uninformed

see silly, as for example from the drug lords perspective, and the drug lord is one of us, in the jailhouse, and when silly toils in self glorification, its really just a pretense for a particular purpose, but, from drug lords and others perception it may appear so, that silly is a freaking genius, but the real truth is that silly in inherently driven, had to be so driven to survive early on, and now is thinking outside the box and viewing the forest, it all came together, and is easily bored with the mundane, the business as usual, and over a life time, has developed a skill set flowing from that boredom, now wearing many hats, which are perceived now necessary for the goal of the jailhouse gang and personally, and yes there has been some man power management experience among many experiences during that life time, singularly unimpressive, but collectively a dynamo, combined resulting in that grandiose alpha werewolf mentality developed early on in the throws of five siblings in rivalry, habitually fighting over limited food stores and through household games played trying to impress the parents, silly modestly breaking the rules, as any good shark would, to come out on top, always, the parents were ready to congratulate the victor of the sibling rivalry, while jealously eye balling wealthy cousins, and so, that grandiose alpha werewolf psychological trait was developed early on in life, and as those experiences were realized as time went on, each singularly unimpressive, the skill set was developed, gandiosely looking outside the box, but no, silly is not a genius, but a grandiose alpha werewolf with the necessary skin and skill set arriving this day only for the cause at hand, and there is no earthly magic here, really, silly is really but just a joe, really, and maybe it all was part of the bosses grand plan, and honesty, silly dont know, but it seems so, as the psychological and intellectual necessaries have arrived at the right time and place to do the job and accomplish the goal at hand, looking back and looking ahead, and so, silly really is but a tool and walks life with the main man having his secret plans, unbeknowst to silly, and in the final analysis, silly can only offer the services and let the chips fall where they may. Sincerely. It is an honor to be your obedient servant.

Belinda Carlisle - Heaven Is A Place On Earth
SilverSurfers
May 8, 2013 - 6:58am

Aspect III

number three of the attack plan in adequate financing, and bucks need to be up front, cash on the barrow head, as one has to pay to play, and buckaroos will needed for the take down by the eight ball, and as a first rough cut, where the take downers sinking the eight ball were first estimated at eight of take downers times one quarter mega buckaroos per year, which is the expected time for the action to play out to settlement where leviathan throws in the towel, and a two to three time factors were considered as over head for paranorals and keyboard bangers and graphics artists and copy cats and circus costs and plane fairies and reporting fees and paper pushers mostly, for a grand total of four to six mega buckeroos, up front and on that barrow head, as the take downers will all have to eat being mortal men, and so cost effectiveness is always in play, as the fiddlers are waiting at the grand ball, and, this assumes that the torpedoes and hired guns can be enticed cost effectively for the waltz of all time to take down leviathan and the ruin the wet dreams of the behemoth army along with bullion manipulation, once and for all to plainly see, the jailhouse goal, but in the scheme of things, going against a 1T$ market cap behemoth, the amount perceived as necessary is actually a drop in the bucket, to be able to shoot that big fish in a bucket at the dog and pony show, and so funding needs are addressed as a necessary evil in the real world among mortal men, and, with the hired guns being probably the most expensive, and then the precision torpedoes of moderate expense, and then to silly putty and celestial complainer are a minimal expense, and then finally, to the gangland as being self interested hard core stackers, but should be dirt cheap now in the jailhouse dancing and singing to jailhouse rock, with spider murphy on the saxophone and Joe on the trombone and the boy on the drums with the purple gang as the rhythm section, in the jailhouse now, and the gangland band seems good to go at the raucous jailhouse, or so it appears each day, perhaps singing a sound and dance, the gangland would probably do it just for the excitement and self interest being hard core stackers, mostly, as you have to pay to play, recalling that sillys reasonable rate has historically been one eighth of contemporaries, and this fact has been made of official record, meaning, where are you going to find a real live patent ho in rocket science at fifty bucks a clock tic, really, as silly was never and has been never in it for the doe, though chicks seem to think it important, go figure, and the celestial complainer appears to be well enough off with a personal stake in the game, and one would think 10B$ as part of any settlement seems a fair enticement for the star to put on make up and step up with that make up on and to the plate for the grand slam of all times and the notoriety and fame and the personal glory, that to does not collectively personally destroy the star by such as Satan always lurks ready to jump on the faint of heart and confused, so the star will truly need courage and conviction to stay true to his colors, and man, that is one huge concern for silly putty, so, in reality the two bottom fishers of funding priorities seems to be a cake walk, and that leaves the precision torpedoes and the hired guns both in the water at the dog and pony show, so lets first look at the torpedoes in the water and for security purpose outside the reach of the targets home turf and jurisdiction, one of which precision torpedoes is also a gangland member in the jailhouse and hence a presumed stacker, yet in the bitter arctic north with a personal steak in the out come lurking always, and thus, this gangland member who is also a precision torpedo can wear two hats as the arctic goalie and as the graphic producer and mathematician at the dog and pony show and pitch in with mathematical expertise as well as market savvy, this gangland precision torpedo of sorts should be most reasonable in required luring, and, second precision torpedo is on record to be motivated mostly by concern for Egyptian peasants, and so, one should test this legitimate concern as one never knows for sure, but on face value, this second precision torpedo seems legitimate, so lets go with that, and this torpedo should be reasonable as well, and, that leaves us with the hyena an unknown and third precision torpedo, but lets first look at the big picture, now, the hindsight capitalist is the titular head of a global firm of analysts apparently, and he might be motivated for the glory and the image in the take down of all time, shooting that fish in a bucket, and here for this reason, the hyena should be reasonable as well to pitch in for his market savvy to cross the threshold between andy dany and the circus master, with andy dany and hyena both speaking that extraterritoral foreign english, working together for short communications lines and compact logistics, completing the loop between andy dany and the circus master as perceived presently necessary by silly putty, and hence, the last hyena precision torpedo might be reasonable as well as a hired tool at the dog and pony show, and now comes, the most significant cost involved and that is the sharks, as all three of those hired guns are constantly circling the clients seen coming, as the star should expect, that these hos have no personal steak in the outcome, and hence must be funded and told what to do cost effectively by silly, but the glory tooting of their own horns should be considered, as they have their own names to think of, but even if in self interest, always lurking by mortal men, the cost of these three defined hired guns should be considered presumptively at a thousand per clock tic as the reasonable rate, currently, but always remember that they are hos even if hired ones, but, the sharks are highly skilled artists and in the third order and hence indispensable, but hos nonetheless, and the star should remain flexible in mind when discussing such with the venture capitalists that are really tough nuts to swallow as well as them boring and awful ones counting beans, hated by at least one silly one as not being in his worlds, but that is the real world of financing, and requires due considerations, and do recall that these hos are preferably found in bed with each other, hot bunking, and in with the spooning sharks, for incestuous feeding and existing support staff to minimize the take downers communications lines and supply logistics from the get go, and the star should remember the enticement trick where partners may be are lured in and may view the grand plan as a slick market trick for firm notoriety and fame just being so bitchen and way cool in their art and their world of hos, and hence, it appears that the magnificent seven can be procured reasonably with one torpedo and the three hos being the real unknown under best approximations, but best guess nonetheless, and if the star plays it right, they may be chummed and lured in for a sound and dance, as well, and so the original budget of four to six mega buckaroos maybe an over estimation, but currently its the best you and silly has just now, and so, run with that and very good luck with it in deed, because, despite all the silliness and apparent foolishness, silly is dead serious about this, with a super high aspect ratio, and very well skilled, wearing five ass hats developed over a life time for the job of wearing those many necessary hats, and if the take downers of the eight ball can be assembled as cost effectively prescribed, then its rock and roll time for the greatest take down of all time at the dog and pony show, and all the star needs to have is the right stuff with a little bit of soul, while keeping his legs crossed, at the dog and pony show, with courage and conviction, for the righteous set up, during the double dutch before the circus master, as take downers are only apparent liar liars, and now time for refueling and the inspirational.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbIEwIwYz-c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdWp-QCLfWw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDEdFxUZ01s

SilverSurfers
May 7, 2013 - 7:25pm

Rewind

to 4/1/09, and sillys question was, when the hunt was on for who is buying it, was the question of the day, unanswerable by the gold heavies, that is, was their any evidence china was secretly buying gold, before bernie lo blomberg Aisa confidential, the answer came back emphatically no, no way, hell no, from the so-called expert, yet china coughed it up, the admission, 12 days later, but silly deductive reasoning is freaking crazy, and so said the clinic chick who had no clue. You light weights, meh ..... lol, but hey, its time to gang screw leviathan, and andy dandy has chummed and is close, and there is blood in the water from the first dart gun, with an attack plan forming, so lets get it on and go wild!!! .

Video unavailable
SilverSurfers
May 7, 2013 - 5:13pm

backstabbers

are seen through history and the secret world of gold is no exception, but in the final analysis, the manipulation world is driven by mere mortals and may involve rocket science, though that is truly suspected, as silly has seen the spectrum plots of marker hip ups particularly from mad max, and it does not approach at first glance rocket science, or even close, but nonetheless, mortals and machines are involved through relatively complex market secret arrangements and internal business operations, but they have inadvertantly entered into sillys world and view the secret world as analogous to mortals and true rocket scientists and their rockets, yes, they stepped into it, now usually silly spends about four hours reviewing a twenty page corporate disclosure of a rocket or an invention to get it, and andy dany and hyena are more than capable in generating initial disclosures, thereafter, a four hours interview is had again to determine such as here precisely the prima facie case of market manipulation by the investigator, then the ball is passed to the hyena who may inconjunction with the investigator get an approximate idea of how internal business operations of leviathan are actually used in practice and specifically how client accounts that supposedly are hedged are actually pooled and then to the dump of sell orders which produce the desired manipulation, and hence, another four hour interview with the hindsight capitalist with go down, and from that obtain the clues necessary for the moving papers to set up leviathan with the prima faci case in advance of the dog and pony show, as silly as nearly twenty five years of doing just that of the world of rocket science, understanding rocket science from the best of the best, and then the transformation into plain speak in the moving papers for the precision torpedoes to be launched for the set up, to get leviathan to admit on the record business practice and thus the proximal causation, and that process is a piece of cake, though in the invention filing process, many several hours of personal time was spent has a hired ho, mostly dealing with brain dead paranormals fumbling the ball when the back field was in motion, who for some reason cant read scribbles in crayons on original scientific and disclosures papers even when backed up by keyboard bangers, go figure, they banging heads was the funniest part of the whole process, but pictorials concomitant with precision torpedo launch and moving presentation are a must for the circus master presiding, and thus present a logistical requirement, as then as photoshop and canvas were firstly modified by special macros for the then inventive purpose at hand, as inventions embodiments were first drawn mostly as pencil drawings first that were then worked into automated graphic tools for reduction into suitable forms for filing, been there done that graphic stuff, but not to worry, one of our precision torpedoes is very skilled in the graphic arts with present operational graphic skills suitable for the dog and pony show, and so, with rapid fire interviews of say twenty hours in four sessions, and the logistics of pictorial presentations in hand, as silly had eight years of mechanical drawing lessons and tool and design drawings lessons before even leaving high school, and also twenty five years of on the job drawing of inventions, on line, the charts are easily had for the take down, easy as pie, at the dog and pony show, as this is war, where all is fair, but watch out for the referee as the circus master, when the back field is in motion with the back stabbers.

Video unavailable
Mel & Tim - Backfield In Motion (1969)

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

SilverSurfers
May 7, 2013 - 11:46am

General

with four stars in the fourth order, and thats love, and then imagine Barclay with a grandiose alpha werewolf psychology for the total mind screw. Enjoy Please.

https://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4AEBiyn8Rs

SilverSurfers
May 7, 2013 - 10:04am

Songs

Dont that be one heck of an off the wall combo, eh? Dont ask silly, who just does what hes told by the boss. Only conclusion following it through four orders, is that, its love.

Video unavailable
Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band (Reprise)- The Beatles (Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band)

Ah, recalling 43 years ago, beside the high school, Greek Mythology book, that did slip one up, as completely read, was Good News for Modern Man, and second act of the good book. So, silly aint all that stupid.

And as the heathens are always welcomed in deed.

Modern English - I Melt With You (Official Video)

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Recent Comments

by JackPutter, 44 sec ago
by SilverX3, 4 min 22 sec ago
by tonym9, 7 min 12 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 8 min 18 sec ago
by Angry Chef, 11 min 17 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 20 min 37 sec ago

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, 10 hours 15 min ago
by KevinBenavides, Sep 27, 2020 - 6:01pm
by SteveW, Sep 27, 2020 - 3:47pm
by 11IMIX, Sep 27, 2020 - 10:45am
randomness