Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Fri, May 3, 2013 - 4:38pm

As we wrap this week and prepare for the next, let's review the charts and the CoT.

First, the Commitment of Traders report. It just came out ten minutes ago and here are my initial thoughts. Keep in mind a couple of things:

  1. For the reporting week, gold was UP $62 and its OI was also higher by 6,000 contracts
  2. Silver was also UP. It rose $1.36 but its OI fell by 15,500 or nearly 10%
  3. The silver OI drop was almost entirely due to May contract expiration and First Notice Day, which happened at the exact same time as the CoT survey, at the Comex close back on Tuesday
  4. After the survey, open interest rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down a 2-day total of $4.50 yet its OI rose by 8,000 contracts and silver 35¢ on an OI rise of 1,400.


Continuing the trend, The Specs sold and The Cartel bought. For the week, the Large Specs dumped 3,900 longs and added 3,300 new shorts and the Small Specs are now NET SHORT by nearly 1,500 contracts after they dumped 2,400 longs while covering 800 shorts. Think about that for a moment....the most out-of-touch, ultimate-outsider group the Small Specs, are now NET SHORT. At $1450. For perspective, near the price peak on 8/16/11 the Small Specs were long 70,510 and short 21,749 for a net long ratio of 3.24:1. As of three days ago, they were long just 37,451 and short 38,940 for a net long ratio of 0.96:1. (As an aside, you should really go back and look at that entire CoT report from Harvey's archives. Marvel at the difference in positioning between then and now. https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_08_14_archive.html

To no surprise, The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to reduce their net short position by 8,800 contracts. Last week, though they added 5,255 new shorts, they also added 14,080 longs. This brings their net short ratio all the way down to just 1.56:1. Again, for the sake of comparison, look at that CoT from 8/16/11. At $1900 gold, The Cartel was long just 160,562 and short 409,409 for a net short ratio of 2.55:1.

Digging deeper, what's the big difference between then and now? On 8/16/11, The Gold Cartel was long 160,562. Back on Tuesday, they were long 170,211. However, back in August of 2011 they were short 409,409 and as of last Tuesday they were short just 265,774. Instead of letting gold get away from them when it suddenly became the only currency alternative to fiat, The Cartel moved to aggressively smash price, an operation that continues to this day. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their net short position by 153,284 contracts or 61.6%! Or looked at another way, they've been able to reduce their paper-physical liability by 15,328,400 ounces or 477 metric tonnes!


Again, May13 contract expiration has distorted this report, regardless it's still quite interesting. Last week, the Large Specs dumped another 3,100 longs while covering just 300 shorts. This brings their net long ratio back down to just 1.52:1. The silver Small Specs were net neutral for the week are are still just barely net long.

The commercials in silver who have been taking on JPM in The Civil War actually dumped some longs last week into expiration. Their gross long position fell by 2,573 to 65,685. JPM et al seized upon the Large Spec and Comm selling and covered 5,507 shorts, down to 79,915. This lowers The Silver Cartel net short ratio all the way down to an incredible 1.22:1.

For perspective, let's once again review the CoT from 8/16/11, when silver was trading near $41.

  • Large Spec longs 8/16/11 = 32,697. Last Tuesday = 35,720
  • Large Spec shorts 8/16/11 = 10,769. Last Tuesday = 23,530
  • Large Spec net long ratio 8/16/11 = 3.06:1. Last Tuesday 1.52.1.
  • Comm Longs 8/16/11 = 34,555. Last Tuesday = 65,685
  • Comm Shorts 8/16/11 = 75,236. Last Tuesday = 79,915
  • Cartel net short ratio 8/16/11 = 2.18:1. Last Tuesday = 1.22:1.

Well, what stands out at you? Note that the Large Spec long and Cartel short positions are nearly unchanged over 20 months and a $17 drop in price. Then note the HUGE change in the Large Spec short and Commercial long positions. Also notice the difference between the commercial silver activity and the commercial gold activity. In gold over the exact same time period, the Comm long position is nearly unchanged. However, the silver Comm long position has nearly doubled!

Now I suppose we could really drill down into this and try to discern, by firm, how positions have changed. That's a topic for another day. For today, just think of this:

I laid out for you yesterday all of the many events that have occurred while gold has declined by $500. In summary, I concluded that late August of 2011 was a seminal period of time for the Forces of Darkness. They saw the collapse of confidence in every single fiat currency and the decision was made to attack gold and silver as they had become the only, true alternative to paper. This plan of action continues to this day. By containing gold and silver for the past 20 months, The Cartels have:

  • Reduced their net short position in gold by 153,284 contracts. This equates to 15,328,400 troy ounces of gold or roughly 477 metric tonnes.
  • Reduced their net short exposure in silver by 26,449 contracts or 132,245,000 ounces of silver or 4,113 metric tonnes.

As we head into next week, we should all feel pretty good about surviving this past one. Things looked pretty lousy back on Wednesday but we've since recovered and the charts don't look too bad. Now if we can just get a shove...and burst through resistance at $1485 and $24.80, we could quickly move right back to $1525 and $26 and be poised for an epic battle, fighting to move back into the 1525-1800 and 26-36 price ranges that had contained the metals since the August 2011 attack plan began.

OK, time to call it a week. Ole Turd's got a frosty beer waiting for him and I'm not sure if I can wait much longer. If I wrap up now, I might also be able to catch the Kentucky Oaks. By the way, I haven't studied the form yet but, from what I've seen, I like Normandy Invasion in The Derby tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 3, 2013 - 5:40pm

Do I dare to believe that I

Do I dare to believe that I got Furst?
What an experience!

May 3, 2013 - 5:48pm

For Mr. Fix who is absent . . .


Oops, he must have gone out to get a Fifth . . .

Gold Dog
May 3, 2013 - 5:50pm


Top ten? I was reading!

Just out of the money.

If the track had a bet for picking the horse that comes in forth, I would own a personal DC-10 like the Sultan of Brunei!

Across the board my eye!!!


PS- The contest is at 1500 ZULU, 10:00AM CST tomorrow.

See end of last thread.


May 3, 2013 - 5:51pm

Top ten! Yeehaw!!

Top ten! Yeehaw!!

Spartacus Rex
May 3, 2013 - 5:55pm

Looking Ahead Indeed!

Tis' why We Stack!

May 3, 2013 - 5:58pm

Gov Jan Brewer vetoes Silver & Gold bill

Says they would be unfair competition and lower tax receipts. Duh! Read the last para.


" Arizona Governor Jan Brewer vetoed a measure on Thursday that would have made gold and silver legal tender in the state, saying the legislation could have resulted in lost tax revenue.

The Republican-controlled state legislature voted through the measure last month in a response to what backers said was a lack of confidence in the international monetary system.

The bill called for Arizona to make gold and silver coins and bullion legal tender beginning in mid-2014, joining existing U.S. currency issued by the federal government.

"While I believe the concern over a devalued dollar as a result of an unsustainable federal deficit is justified, I am unable to support this legislation," Brewer, a Republican, said in an open letter to state Senate President Andy Biggs.

Brewer noted that the "administrative and fiscal burdens" for taxpayers and the revenue department "remain vague." She also cited uncertainty over whether the legislation would have required the state to exempt transactions involving collectable coins and bills that were authorized by Congress and could be used as legal tender.

"This would result in lost revenue to the state, while giving businesses that buy and sell collectable coins or currency originally authorized by Congress an unfair tax advantage," she said.

-lucky #7

Silver Alert
May 3, 2013 - 5:59pm


Just popped on to see if Turd had posted yet - and there it was!

May 3, 2013 - 6:03pm

And GLD loses another 2.6 mts

This brings the total for the week to 17.44 metric tonnes


560,709 troy ounces


1402 London bars


7.3 of these:

May 3, 2013 - 6:05pm


Distracted of late, by the English Teacher, but it appears Prize Fighter's notorious Silver gap at 23.37 was closed Wednesday, now combining with after hours painting to up side for 6 days in a row, and 7 or 8 days is a solid indicator, and that combination is further indication of lift off. Looking real good for next week for raw raw. Just Saying. :) SS

Hot dang, hit a turder, a top ten spot during the top ten count down, YEAH!!!!

Seriously dude, pitch hitting for Mr. Fix may not be allowed. I think best to call the REF and settled this grievous dispute forthwith, because it dont count in my book. Admin??? What the deal here? Line Drive or Foul Ball.

freakin x-lawyers are the worst. .... LOL

May 3, 2013 - 6:07pm

Could it be


Is Steve Aoki a closet Turd? Check out the hat in this video (15 sec in).

Video unavailable
May 3, 2013 - 6:16pm

Perfect time for 2nd...turd or something else round.

Excellent timing.

I have been away for a couple days. I bought a couple hundred ounces of silver. While I was looking at getting more, I didn't like the options that were available. I want something more grass roots and non supportive of these imbeciles that have (tried to, at least) led us down the lemming cliff road.

I feel its time to put up the Turd or something else silver round. So after my research concluded, the bottom line is I can get any design I like on both sides of the .999 planchett. Cost is spot plus 1.50 usd for 1000+ includes the minting and the silver. It takes about 3 weeks for the rounds to be ready and then shipping time/cost. This is at cost with no markup.

I was thinking Pinning could help us with some graphics for the coin, we make an order and get on with it. We have already done over 1000 coins this way for a mining associate friend of mine. So it is tested. I asked yesterday again about delivery times. Its 3 weeks to source silver and mint.

Turd..If you want to take this discussion offline we can. Not trying to steal any thunder here.

Ill buy another 100. Anyone else want to explore this?

We would basically need to commit funds to buy delivered to the minting company, wait the 3 weeks, pay shipping and wait for the shipment to go out. Standard shipping times. I was thinking a big middle finger with a hat on it..... :), aimed at these tools they (media) call experts. Maybe like the middle finger chart, with a hat on the spike??? But im open to anything we agree on as long as it doesn't have a queen, or an eagle on it.

Just throwing it out there.... we could do more than one. Doc????


PS: I offered the same deal to Duane....but Rob shot my email down. Chris would have done better going this way. I should have called him, rather than letting Rob kill the idea.

Mr. Fix
May 3, 2013 - 6:17pm

It sure is fun watching all that gold disappear.

Best wishes to everyone this weekend!wink

May 3, 2013 - 6:20pm

This banker must be Pining's Grinch . . .

"If last week’s speech given by the Governor of the Bank of Finland and Chairman of the High-level Expert Group on the structure of the EU banking sector is any indication, using depositor funds to guarantee their own salaries is exactly what Western banksters have in mind…"


Better exchange those fiatskis for the real PMs very soon.

May 3, 2013 - 6:25pm

GLD reaches 0 &...?

So what happens if GLD reaches zero?

May 3, 2013 - 6:28pm

Derby pick

Bet big win bigger.


May 3, 2013 - 6:35pm
Dagney Taggart
May 3, 2013 - 6:39pm

Interesting Idea on Silver

Dad had an interesting idea today:

Afghanistan is referred to as The Graveyard of Empires. Since silver helped wreck BearStearns, is about help wreck JPM, and will eventually wreck all fractional fiat systems, he is calling it The Graveyard of Fiat Bankers.

Pining, Bag, or WB7 if you lurk: if you have a mural idea, have at it. One request: The Rothschilds should be buried in the corner where the dogs pee and shit forever.

Spartacus Rex
May 3, 2013 - 6:39pm
May 3, 2013 - 6:40pm

I was all set to work with

I was all set to work with Mulligan until the blowup with ChrisD. After speaking with him, I've put the project on standby.

Looking now for a different mint to make the coins and fulfill the orders. If anyone has any suggestions, please pass them along.

Spartacus Rex
May 3, 2013 - 6:44pm

May 3, 2013 - 6:48pm
Dagney Taggart
May 3, 2013 - 6:56pm


When GLD is 0, gold is obviously free. I expect everybody here to give me theirs for nothing in return. We all OK with that?

And yes. Those silly Utahns losing all of that tax revenue. What were they thinking? OK. So it seems like the question now is if the Arizona representatives have any recourse from Leatherhead Brewer's veto? Insanity claim perhaps? Jesus, she is so tan that she is purple. Too much drinking in the sun obviously.

May 3, 2013 - 7:05pm

I called it first Mam

I called all the gold first Mam, and was just trying to remind everyone. No? hmm.

I guess the theory that paper metals go to zero just prior to the moonshot is the current favorite than?

I suppose the AZ congress critters can override her veto, tho that is as likely as us getting all the zero dollar value gold. I appreciate her honesty, the metals would undercut taxes and provide incentives. For anyone on the fence that should be a good push to our side.

To bad, AZ almost made it to the top spot in my 'where do I resettle list'.

May 3, 2013 - 7:06pm


Fri May 03 2013 - 7:05:37 pm
spot bid ask
Gold: $1468.76 $1471.70
Silver: $24.08 $24.23
Limit of $10,000 max per transaction for paper cash, & NO LIMIT on wire transfers. $1500 minimum sale for orders being shipped; (www.jhmint.com) 530 273-8175
SALE PRICE Description: On Hand WE BUY AT
% Over: $$/oz.: % at: $$/oz.:
1: 10.5% $1626 Gold 1 oz. Gold Bars Sold Out 0.0% $1469
2: 12.5% $1656 Gold 1 oz. Krugerrands, Maples, Australians, Phils In Stock 1.0% $1484
3: 13.5% $1670 Gold 1 oz. American Eagles, Buffs In Stock 1.2% $1486
4: 18.0% $1737 Gold Proof, first strikes In Stock 1.5% $1491
5: 12.0% $27.14 1/4 bag 90% Silver Coins 180 oz. $250 face Sold Out 0.0% $24.08
6: 10.0% $26.65 Silver 100 oz. bar In Stock -2.0% $23.60
7: 16.0% $28.11 Silver 10 oz. bar In Stock 0.0% $24.08
8: 16.0% $28.11 Silver 1 oz. Rounds In Stock 4.0% $25.04
9: 15.0% $27.86 Silver 1 oz Philharmonics In Stock 0.0% $24.08
10: 29.0% $31.26 Silver 1 oz. Eagles In Stock 10.0% $26.49
Prices are indications only, and are subject to current market conditions. Hours M-F 10A-5P Pacific,closed weekends,holidays and during heavy snow storms
Prices Locked AFTER we receive your wire.
· PriceBoard (v3.03) created and hosted by rkhtechnology.com - © 2013
May 3, 2013 - 7:09pm

Thank You TF.

Tough week, enjoy those frosties.

Ponies, I used to know the stable cleaner, used to pick him up hitch hikin, got some good tips.

I got friends in low places.

Garth Brooks- Friends In Low Places

I amaze myself, the pure joy that surges through my heart, gazing upon the marvel, that is the chart of one JP Morgue, that

you posted above.

A thing of the purest beauty..snuff ..snuffle., kinda brings a tear to the eye don't it?

edit. through my tears of bliss, I realized it was the stinkin Yen and not the stinkin Morgue.

We can only hope.

Cry Me A River
May 3, 2013 - 7:13pm

BEWARE: Monday Is May 6th!

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY?---LOL!--Who Knows?---Maybe It'll Happen Again?

How True Is the “Sell in May and Go Away” Adage?


A look at the best and worst performances for the month of May since 1928 by Bespoke Investment Group, LLC shows that for the S&P 500, two of the top-10 worst Mays (May 2010 with a 8.2% contraction, and 2012 contracting by 6.27%) and one of the top-10 best Mays (May 2009 with 5.31% growth) occurred during the recent bull market that started in 2009. (Source: “S&P 500’s Best and Worst Months of May Since 1928,” Bespoke Investment Group, LLC web site, April 30, 2013, last accessed May 1, 2013.)

Clearly, volatility in the S&P 500 has increased substantially for the month of May for the past few years over the course of the current bull market, and your investment strategy certainly needs to take that volatility’s timing into account. Additionally, since the bull market’s beginning in 2009, the S&P 500 during the month of May has averaged a decline of 2.64%.

AND THIS FROM WIKIPEDIA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash

The May 6, 2010 Flash Crash[1] also known as The Crash of 2:45, the 2010 Flash Crash or just simply, the Flash Crash, was a United States stock market crash on Thursday May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1000 points (about 9%) only to recover those losses within minutes. It was the second largest point swing, 1,010.14 points, and the biggest one-day point decline, 998.5 points, on an intraday basis in Dow Jones Industrial Average history.

FROM: https://ryviewpoint.blogspot.com/2010/05/stock-slide-thursday-may-6-2010.html

On May 6, US stock markets opened down and trended down most of the day on worries about the debt crisis in Greece. At 2:42 pm, with the Dow Jones down more than 300 points for the day, the equity market began to fall rapidly, dropping an additional 600 points in 5 minutes for an almost 1000 point loss on the day by 2:47 pm. Twenty minutes later, by 3:07 pm, the market had regained most of the 600 point drop.[5]


Dagney Taggart
May 3, 2013 - 7:14pm


Re: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/194712#comment-194712

What about Golden State Mint? They produce those low-premium silver buffaloes I guess.

Gold Dog
May 3, 2013 - 7:22pm


Thanks for the video....a preview of next week?



So It Goes
May 3, 2013 - 7:25pm

@ Kill the Rooster - Re: Tulving

From the previous thread:

I'm sorry if I my tone came off snotty from my previous post. I will to answer a couple of your concerns - hopefully this will come off as educational.

1. You must know your metals dealer. I am well aware that Tulving went bankrupt in 1991 and settled an advertisement claim from the Feds in 1992. Since then - 20+ years, he has a totally clean business bill of health. This record may be better than many of the dealers out there.

2. He is not for "everybody". His business model is to keep margins as low as possible so he can offer THE BEST PRICES. As such he will sell only larger amounts of metals. 10 oz is the minimum for some gold (its usually 20 oz). 500 0z is the minimum for silver. Also he keeps overhead as low as possible. He does not have that many employees. He even personally answers the phone during the off hours.

3. He is BUSY. The volume of his sales is enormous. He does no advertising other than a few youtube clips. He will not take the time to educate you. He will not suffer folks who try to change price in a falling market. He will get to your order when he can. His personality is his personality - and he is the boss.

Here's the take away point. If the best price is not your major criterion - you need your metal right away, you only want or can afford small lots, or the personality of the proprietor is important - then Tulving may not be for you.

However, my 0.02 - Tulving remains a valuable resource for the stacking community. He and his staff are scrupulously honest. To suggest otherwise is to diminish the community. Try to understand the business model he uses and to appreciate what he has to offer. After all, trading fiat currency for precious metals could save your life.

Keep stacking.

So it goes.

Spartacus Rex
May 3, 2013 - 7:27pm

The Silver Turd

My vote would definitely be for a 1oz. Round- Silver Turd Such would at long last finally prove whereby One actually could “pick up a turd by the clean end” Either Silvertowne Mint or Sunshine Mint would be good choices to make them @ https://www.silvertownemint.com/ or https://www.sunshinemint.com/

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