FOMC Wednesday

Wed, May 1, 2013 - 2:33pm

Today's FOMC Fedlines are a non-event. So now we turn to tomorrow.

Thursday brings some news from the ECB. Won't that be fun? Perhaps a reason for the paper jockeys to jam prices lower again? More likely, prices rebound tomorrow as today's shorts are squeezed back out. Then we do this same dance over again on Friday. We'll see.

For now, here's the FOMC statement from the ZH scribd page:

April Redline

Moving on, my thoughts on the day were summarized in this comment to the previous thread. Rather than re-type, how about a simple C&P:

"All you need to know is this: Nearly every important Eastern and Asian buyers market was closed today for May Day. Just like we've seen in the past, absent physical purchasers, the Spec HFTs and Cartel monkeys play freely to kill paper price. Today is no different.

The only real stories today are these:

My enthusiasm for typing a new thread is low because I simply don't care what these baboons are doing to paper price. I don't. Gold (and silver) is being sold off because the global economic weakness is prompting paper traders to sell all commodities. And gold is a commodity? Not to me!! And screw the FOMC minutes. Nothing but worthless SPIN and MOPE. We all know by now that QE can't and won't end. EVER! Ending QE would collapse everything. Not going to happen.

Paper trading is completely disconnected from economic reality. Today's paper action deserves nothing but a cursory glance and shoulder shrug."

The only other interesting item at this time in the open interest and CoT survey. For the Wednesday to Tuesday reporting week, gold surged over $62 in price and its OI climbed by 6,000 contracts. Silver, however, was dealing with May contract expiration so, while it also surged forward by $1.36, its OI fell by about 15,500! This sets up another very interesting CoT report this week. Who, in silver, was buying/covering and closing May positions? Was it the Specs? Was it the Comms? How much by category? A very interesting CoT this week, indeed.

But the CoT is still 49 hours away. Before then, we're going to have all kinds of price volatility, likely enough to make us not even want to see the CoT as we'll all be ready for the weekend. Hang in there, keep the faith and let's see what tomorrow brings.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 1, 2013 - 2:39pm

top 5


Actually my first ever second.

I have had one first, two thirds and now a second.

When it comes to predicting price - i wish i could come anywhere other than bottom :-)

May 1, 2013 - 2:40pm


They did not hate the news. Like you said earlier today more spin and mope.

May 1, 2013 - 2:43pm


back up we go?

May 1, 2013 - 2:43pm
The Watchman
May 1, 2013 - 2:47pm
May 1, 2013 - 2:53pm

Most interesting comment from today was this nugget

"The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases."

Very interesting indeed. Since prior minutes had been perceived by the market as hawkish, this is without a doubt a very dovish statement.

Also couple that line with the video of former Fed guy Kevin Warsh.!

Start at 41:00.

There is no exit, no stopping. It's the nature of a exponentially growing system. They will only stopped when the market revolts. Don't be so silly to believe that the TPTB can hit every bid in a panic.

May 1, 2013 - 2:54pm
Double Bogey
May 1, 2013 - 2:59pm

LCS report

I walk into the store

Me: Got any silver?

LCS: Sure, we're running a special today, Maples for $6 UNDER spot!

Me: You're joking!

LCS: You started it!

May 1, 2013 - 3:09pm

Monarchs of Money

The following is a CBC (Canadian) mini-documentary, titled "The Monarchs of Money", that ran a couple of days ago on the CBC nightly news. It focuses on Central Banks and QE. It's worth watching - although there several tidbits of what I would consider soft-shoed mis-information. One quote - from Mark Grant - "there is no good ending here, just varying degrees of bad endings." It does seem that the Central Banks are starting to lose the PR battle. Worth watching - here is the video on YouTube. [Apologies if this has previously been posted - I have not noticed it]

May 1, 2013 - 3:12pm

Livermore's advice and comments...

...about the difficulties of sitting tight while being right ring strangely true right now.

There is a lot of hand-wringing, expert opinion, gold vs. silver bashing, conspiracy-decrying going on at the moment. There is small likelihood that anyone will ever find out the COMPLETE, WHOLE truth about every detail of the mechanics of securitized PM markets -- whether by voluntary disclosure, whistleblowing, court proceedings or investigative reporting.

But I am curious, if one understands/believes that the fiat monetary regime of the past decades, combined with the ever more efficient intertwining of large business interests and government (taxation, redistribution, selective subsidization, selective enforcement, etc.) has been:

- a tremendously successful wealth tranfer conduit

- whose throughput and efficiency of operation (in terms of wealth moved/concentrated) has increased sharply in the last ca. 10-15 years

WHY does anyone think that financial vehicles operating within the framework such as GLD or SLV are fulfilling any other purpose? I am not saying anything about the actual contents or 'ownership' status of any physical metal in or not in the custodial vaults, nor about the redemption process -- my comment is merely intended to apply to the ultimate purpose of the construct. If you can make money holding/trading it, good for you.

But it seems to me that the gold and silver thread used up in the spinning/weaving/tailoring process went to some of these for 'special participants':

While everyone else involved will end up looking like this:

And in a broader sense, this applies not only to those vehicles -- but to the adherents of paper assets in general. The 'value' rests on and derives from the trust placed in the terms of the contract, the enforceability of the contract, and the protection afforded to both parties. I see all of these being (or have been) eroded.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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