Monday, Monday

Mon, Apr 29, 2013 - 7:52am

It's the start of another new week that culminates with a BLSBS report on Friday. In between, we can count on continued volatility, that's for sure.

But let's just focus on getting through Monday, first. I'm not going to be around much between today and tomorrow afternoon so I need everyone to hold down the fort. Let's try to keep this main page on-topic and utilize the forums for everything that isn't gold and silver related.

Here are your charts. It seems like it has been several weeks since I've been able to state that the rally objectives are pretty clear...Take out Friday's highs and keep going! In gold, this then means a shot at the psychologically-important $1500 level and then the all-important bottom of the previous, 19-month range at $1525-1530. Silver is equally clear. It simply needs to best Friday's highs near $24.80 and then it's clear sailing to $26. The only potential sticky point in between is the 20-day MA, now near $25.13 and sinking fast.

The only other item I have time to discuss this morning is the continued draining of the GLD. It shed another 7.22 metric tonnes on Friday. This brings the total gold in "inventory" down to 1,083.05 metric tonnes, down from 1,349.92 back on January 2. This is a drop of 19.77%. So, for all intents and purposes, the GLD now "holds" 4 bars for every 5 it had back at the first of the year. Friday's withdrawal alone is almost exactly three of these pallets.

In stark contrast, the SLV held 10,084.96 metric tonnes of silver in "inventory" on 1/2/13. As of Friday, it held 10,349.42. UP 2.5%. 

Hmmmm.....So were supposed to believe that "investors" are "liquidating precious metal investments" and "re-allocating elsewhere". OK. Well, then, let me ask you this, Bob Pissonme: Why are "investors" only liquidating gold and not silver? Got an answer for that one, big boy?

When this is all said and done, one of the things we'll look back at is this extraordinary draining of the GLD...happening right before our eyes...and so many pundits will express amazement at how they could have missed such a clear warning sign.

Alright, then. Have a great day. Try to enjoy yourself while keeping in mind The Golden Rule. Back tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


ivars · Apr 29, 2013 - 7:53am

I do not know what to write

I do not know what to write

Dolomite · Apr 29, 2013 - 7:53am

Turd what's for Breakfast? 

Turd what's for Breakfast? smiley

indosil · Apr 29, 2013 - 7:56am



RaRaRasputin · Apr 29, 2013 - 7:57am

Should be studying ...

but nope here I am ;) Third?

Nope make that 4th - may the fourth be with you :)

indosil · Apr 29, 2013 - 7:57am


You should have written 1st smiley

· Apr 29, 2013 - 7:59am

Good Morning (again)

Going mainstream:

Neil Macdonald: The 'monarchs of money' and the war on savers

Power Shift: First in a series on the rise of the central bankers and the global imposition of cheap credit

By Neil Macdonald, CBC News

Posted: Apr 29, 2013 5:03 AM ET

Quietly, without much public fuss or discussion, a new ruling class has risen in the richer nations.

These men and women are unelected and tend to shun the publicity hogged by the politicians with whom they co-exist.

They are the world's central bankers. Every six weeks or so, they gather in Basel, Switzerland, for secret discussions and, to an extent at least, they act in concert.

Watch Neil Macdonald's full documentary The Monarchs of Money tonight on The National at 10 p.m. /10:30 NT

The decisions that emerge from those meetings affect the entire world. And yet the broad public has a dim understanding, if any, of the job they do....

"I don't understand what quantitative easing is, except that it's printing money," she says. "But I do understand that I now have 50 per cent less.

"What they have done is take money from people who have been really careful all their lives."

On the backs of the virtuous

Actually, by the Bank of England's own reckoning, the £375 billion of quantitative easing it has carried out since 2008 has cost British savers and pensioners about £70 billion, roughly $100 billion. (At the same time, the richest 10 per cent of British households saw the value of their assets increase over the same period, the bank reported.)

That cost to the elderly is largely because pension payouts in the U.K. are pegged to the yields on government bonds, and quantitative easing has forced those yields down to almost nothing.

... edit - I am shamelessly reposting this on the new thread.
Roger Godberd · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:00am

Bearish or Bullish

Sentiment apparently massively bearish and yet how does that equate with huge phyzz buying? Also when there is NO METAL in VOLUME can these huge purchases be made everyday at the LBMA?

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark..

Happy to be Top Ten today!

El Gordo · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:03am

Top ten?

Am I in the top ten? Carpe diem

waxybilldupp · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:04am

Eyes open ...

No Fear!

For I AM Turd!

wax off

edit: And, Xty's back! It truly is a "good morning". Welcome back, Pirate Lady!

Bollocks · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:07am

ivars should be banned...

for not saying FURST.

This sort of behaviour should NOT be tolerated at Turdville.

Monedas · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:15am

Golden Showers ?

Good Dawg .... is on fire .... hydrant .... and he's pissing silver coins .... keep your umbrella upside down .... this beats stupid hat contests .... that take forever .... and have low pay out .... and erases all the questionable karma .... of Katie Rose's .... United Way Silver Appeal ! Good show .... er .... good shower .... Good Dawg .... keep on pissin' ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Raining Rounds World Tour devil PS: I'm still missing the old format .... it was a very handsome format .... it made Monedas look good !

silver66 · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:19am

top 10

have a good week 


Stack till it hurts

Edit: to all you nay sayers out there, my Leafs made the playoffs this year. Mind you we may be out in 4 against Boston, but we made them. See I told you this year was going to be differentsmiley

Eric King · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:24am
Mickey · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:33am


Gold get whacked right at comex open?

usd down today. Wonder when it becomes consistently down.

jamato31 · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:33am

trading in a little gold coin

trading in a little gold coin for some silver (if there is any for sale) today at the LCS. id like to get some morgans or peace dollars. heres to an up week.

Motley Fool · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:35am

Great news

I bought a new mouse today. :P

jamato31 · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:36am


best post ever

ltcolkilgore · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:41am


Praise the Lord, thank you!!!yes

Indenture · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:44am

Medium of Exchange

"It is good to see bullion transactions happening – this shows that our currencies are still alive!" Ender

Indenture · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:45am

Timeless Wealth

So the question is, 'How do you store your value?'

Indenture · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:47am

Ledger Entry

Because oil will determine the Unit of Account.

Bobbejaan · Apr 29, 2013 - 8:51am

From 2003 = A Blast from The Past ..&.. Mostly still True today

Seventy-Eight Approaching Forces for Higher Silver Prices
(as of 12/13/2003)
By Douglas Kanarowski

I am an individual investor that has been following the evolving silver story for the past 19 years. Being curious about how high silver prices might eventually go, I began making a list of the APPROACHING FORCES that will likely contribute to higher prices. To make the list, entries must satisfy two substantial qualifiers: FAIRLY LARGE IN SCOPE and are STILL YET TO COME. I was surprised at length of my final list. The following represents a collection of what others have said over the years and a dose of my own common sense and thinking.

Before I start, one tremendously important fact needs to be established so that you can better assimilate "THE APPROACHING FORCES" information. Drum roll please …. NO ONE ON EARTH KNOWS WHAT THE TRUE PRICE OF SILVER SHOULD BE!! Why is this? Because, since1945, the end of WWII, the U.S. government has been selling-off the world's largest-ever silver stockpile. For the past 57 years, the government has dumped a total of 6 billion ounces of silver onto the world market. (This quantity equates to about 100 million ounces per year. And, as of late 2002, the entire U.S. government stockpile is now officially gone.) My conclusion is that ANY MARKET that has undergone this degree of distortion for this long, has lost all contact with the irrefutable laws of supply and demand that ultimately will determine price.


1. The same PROFESSIONAL DEALERS and INSIDERS that have made so much and done so much structural damage on the downside will surely be positioned to capitalize on the upside. At the very least, their personal accounts will somehow be properly positioned. (For example, as recently as the summer of 2002, these insiders had been short more than 350 million ounces of silver when the entire COMEX warehouse only held about 100 million ounces.) These people are just too big, powerful, smart and well connected to let this stellar opportunity pass them up. Their activities have not simply analogous to holding a lifejacket underwater but rather holding a helium filled balloon underwater. It not only wants to break the surface but also wants to fly to the moon.

2. Because of the ongoing silver supply deficit (every year since 1990), known silver stockpiles are low and are well on their way to zero. Between now and “zero-stockpile day”, SOMEONE-SOMEWHERE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE OF THE REMAINING PHYSICAL STOCK. Wealthy individuals, hedge funds, political entities and un-named countries are all possible candidates. At $5 silver, the 100 million-ounce COMEX stock could be had for $500 million. This “accident waiting to happen” will come unannounced and as a surprise. Why hasn’t this already happened? In part because the perpetrators will be unfairly villianized for causing the resulting shortage & price spike.


78. (added 11-15-03) Some degree of environmentalism is and will always be. However, new to the world stage is A RISING WORLD TIDE OF RADICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM. Young minds now believe the building blocks of a modern civilization originate from factories, not forests n' fields. And from minds, instead of mines. Such is not the case but matters not. Although radical environmentalism could close a silver mine or stop another from opening (decreasing supply), virtually all miners will face substantially higher costs due to ever-increasing, environmental law compliance. From the financial side, because civilization must have its silver, this "environmental tax" is necessarily passed on to the consumer .... raising the POS that much higher.


It would not be fair to only present one side of the silver story. So the question is, "What forces might contribute to LOWER silver prices?" See below:

1. In a high price environment, some jewelry, tableware, silver coins and the like will come out of hiding and be sold to into the market. It is thought that much of this silver is long gone. Most people don’t own any silver to sell and have never seen a real silver coin.


6. During a silver shortage, fewer and fewer retail outlets (coin shops and the like) will have silver available for distribution. If some potential buyers are not able to satisfy their demand, potential maximum demand will be reduced.



· Apr 29, 2013 - 9:05am

Timeless Wealth

If the question is "How do you store your value?", the answer is "Physical bullion, both silver and gold." The old family silver is more than just a tradition - and teaspoons flew in and out of pawn shops in the 1800's, clearly a store of value, and close to a currency.

But is that really your question? Seems simplistic - and keeping barrels of oil is messy, if I am somehow understanding your point.

Watcher · Apr 29, 2013 - 9:05am

Great Charts


“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.” W.D.Gann


We can curse, rant and shake with fear about those evil forces that keep knocking down the price of gold and silver. However, if we want to know when the highs and lows will take place we can calmly with confidence observe whether or not the next Delta Long term (LTD) turning point is a high or a low and when it is due. They have never failed.

Gold by any measure is the leader of the pack. The pack consists of gold, silver, and the HUI. This monthly logarithmic gold chart shows us that a new high occurred at every LTD # 4 high and every grouping of LTD # 1 high and LTD # 2 high. Lows occurred at LTD # 3 low and LTD # 5 low. A perfect rising logarithmic channel has been in place since the bull market in gold began. Silver and the HUI clearly follow gold up and down. All three will be moving up to LTD # 4 high due February 12, 2014.


Highs have occurred at LTD # 4 and LTD # 1 & # 2. Lows occur at LTD # 3 & LTD # 5.
Next stop is LTD # 4 high.


Highs have occurred at LTD # 4 and LTD # 1 & # 2. Lows occur at LTD # 3 & LTD # 5.
Next stop is LTD # 4 high.


The upshot is that all forms of precious metals are preparing to soar.


S Roche · Apr 29, 2013 - 9:07am

fwiw...& @Tabberto

The gold bears line in the sand appears to be $1481 today from $1478 Friday - pre-game work done on Comex open, now for the equity open to see what the johhnies-come-lately in GLD are thinking.

No "goat" gotten here Tabberto, the link to Comex deliveries show JPM taking delivery of silver this year, big time.

Which I thought is interesting...

and as I understand it, this site is about discussing the metals, not blindly following theories unsupported by facts. 

Edit: in support of my contention, (that your contention - that no one will attack the JPM nekked short because they are all scared of The Man - is not supported by the facts), I will try to get a comment from Boaz Weinstein, see if he thinks the same as you do. I think he qualifies as a sophisticated investor.

hai · Apr 29, 2013 - 9:08am
hai · Apr 29, 2013 - 9:08am

Video: Jeffrey Christian Discusses The Paper-Physical Misconcept

Video: Jeffrey Christian Discusses The Paper-Physical Misconception In Gold, Economic Shock By 2016 To Propel Prices Higher

Bobbejaan · Apr 29, 2013 - 9:10am

Another "Past-Blast" = A Brief History of (American) Money

A Brief History of Money
"Silver is money. Silver is wealth. The dollar is fraud -- a deception."
by Jason Hommel,

In all of history, wherever paper money has been issued, its value has eventually gone to zero. Its intrinsic value is nothing, and the dollar is no exception. The value of silver and gold is timeless, and cannot go to zero. They are metals that will always be precious and will hold value.

... <SNIP> ...

The U.S. dollar can only survive based on pretext. How much have you been misinformed? Are you aware of how this has taken place? Are you aware of how and why this will end? Have you been able to separate truth from propaganda? Should you pursue wisdom about money? You have come to the right place!

A few facts about monetary history in the United States

As America fought the War for Independence (the Revolutionary War), we issued paper money that turned out to be a disaster. Thus, a few years later, when the Constitution was written, it stated that silver and gold would be money. The coin Act of 1792, stated that those who debased the currency,"or otherwise with a fraudulent intent" were to suffer the death penalty :-

Penalty of Death for de-basing the coins. Section 19. And be it further enacted, that if any of the gold or silver coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint shall be debased or made worse as to the proportion of the fine gold or fine silver therein contained, or shall be of less weight or value than the same out to be pursuant to the directions of this act, through the default or with the connivance of any of the officers or persons who shall be employed at the said mint, for the purpose of profit or gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent, and if any of the said officers or persons shall embezzle any of the metals which shall at any time be committed to their charge for the purpose of being coined, or any of the coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint, every such officer or person who shall commit any or either of the said offenses, shall be deemed guilty of felony, and shall suffer death.

President Andrew Jackson, our 7th president, was one of our nation's greatest monetary heroes. He recognized the evil of printing excess paper money. He saw a boom (bubble) in real estate, fueled by excess bank loans. He put a stop to it by passing a law that required all land sales to be in gold coin. Banks refused to loan gold coin, and only paper money, so the boom collapsed. He fought the banks, and refused to re-charter the central bank.

In the Civil War, both sides issued too much paper money to pay for the War. Lincoln's paper money was called "greenbacks." Following the War Between the States, Lincoln was going to go after the banking industry. He was assassinated shortly after the end of hostilities.

In 1914, during the presidency of Woodrow Wilson, the Federal Reserve was founded. Wilson, on his deathbed, admitted his error, saying that allowing the Federal Reserve to be founded was a betrayal of his country. The Fed quickly issued money to help pay the costs of WWI, and caused the boom of the roaring 20's.

By 1929, the stock market crashed, and the nation entered the Great Depression.

In 1933, gold was re-valued from $20/oz up to $35/oz by Franklin Delano Roosevelt. FDR made it illegal to own gold within the U.S. but allowed foreigners to redeem paper dollars for gold.

By 1945, the end of WWII, the U.S. government was in debt by a total of $250 billion. Valued in gold at $35/oz., that would have been 7.14 billion ounces of gold, which is more gold than has been mined in the history of the world up until 2008, which is only about 5 billion ounces of gold.

In 1963 Kennedy was assassinated, and 1964 was the final year of issuing 90% silver coinage. People claim that JFK passed an executive order to issue $4-5 billion worth of U.S. notes backed by the silver held by the U.S. Treasury. But that was an insignificant amount, compared to the debt of $250 billion in 1945.

From 1965 to 1969, fifty cent piece coins were debased and adulterated by reducing the silver content to 40% silver.

By 1971, Nixon closed the gold window, and stopped redeeming paper money for gold. Gold quickly rose in price over the next decade by an average of 34% per year, up to $850/oz. Some say Nixon really resigned (not over Watergate which was the smokescreen) but over the real embarrassment of selling off our nation's gold hoard while trying to defend the fraud of issuing too many paper dollars (inflation).

In 1975, Americans were allowed to own real gold again. The day before, December 31, 1974, 'paper gold' began trading again. Except this time they were called "gold futures contracts." These were used to depress the price of gold substantially until the late 80's. Thus, people who bought physical gold were hurt badly as the value of physical gold was cut in half right in the middle of the ten year boom. Gold futures contracts are still used today to cap the price of gold.

In 1980, bonds were used to lure people away from gold. Bonds were paying a high interest rate, and a nation-wide ad campaign was designed to get people to buy bonds instead of gold. And if you wanted gold, you were supposed to buy the paper gold of "gold futures contracts" for the increased rate of return. The nation was deceived and rushed back into paper money.

In 2003, the U.S. Bond market is valued at over $20 trillion, which is $20,000,000,000,000. The measure of the money supply in U.S. banks is valued at about $8.8 trillion. The total paper money is $29 trillion. The U.S. gold hoard, 261 million ounces, at $400/oz. is valued at $104 billion, or $104,000,000,000.

By 2008, M3 was valued at $14 trillion, and no numbers for the size of the bond market are available.

If you divide $29 trillion, into the 261 million oz. of gold, there are $111,111 dollars for every oz. of gold. This is a price target for if we went back to using gold as money, and the fraud of the dollar, and the fraud of fractional reserve banking were destroyed.
Gold Delivery Default

There is one important point to make regarding the last two defaults in gold deliveries in 1933 and 1971. The inability to pay in gold came before the price rise. Gold deliveries stopped before the price rose. Clearly, there does not need not be a substantial rise in the gold price before the default hits. Delivery defaults occur when they run out of the gold to deliver. The rise in price comes after the delivery default happens.

In all of monetary history, paper money always fails. It always goes to a value of zero. Don't forget the lessons of history.


· Apr 29, 2013 - 9:12am

Gold vs Silver

AS the days pass, it sure looks like gold and silver (praise God I have some) are being pressured by different fundamentals. The first point of evidence I see are the differing levels of stability in GLD and SLV. I have been persuaded that GLD is being tapped to make deliveries to Briiics countries. Silver? I am not sure. Perhaps Harvey is correct that there isn't much silver in SLV in the first place. Otherwise, why the need to illegally mash markets on May Day 2011, why take down MF global, and Kodak in Jan of 2012 when silver (praise God I have some) spiked over 35. Why not just tap the SLV and deliver the metal and keep containing the price more slowly, more deliberately, without the desperation.

So I guess the question is whether or not their dirty tricks will get them past another potential disaster and keep the game going. Unfortunately, they already have the national police armed up and deployed. Their "test" was successful. I wonder what those jack-boots, tanks and drones cost and who pays for it? Surely not the local police department. And where did they find such competent and well-trained recruits? Oh yeah, that's right, the returning soldiers cannot find peacetime jobs. I guess the recruiters told the truth to those 17 year old HS grads that the military service would prepare them for a rewarding career. I wonder how much that "day off" cost the Boston economy? Many businesses do not make up a lost day's sales. Why not shut down the LA basin when chasing down the cop killer? Maybe that one would cost too much? He was clearly more dangerous to the public than the scapegoat brothers.

I am going to get myself worked up If I keep writing...

Time seems short and my gut feeling tells me to do something more to prepare. I guess we get past May 1 first, then keep watching...

Juggernaut Nihilism · Apr 29, 2013 - 9:14am

They aren't ALL in on it

Remember that there is big money out there opposing the cartel. The cartel is working with the Fed, and therefore has the biggest guns, but it is a mistake to believe that the whole industry is working together. Just look at how much money Paulson has lost on gold's decline... and he's as inside as it gets, considering Goldman was basically conspiring with him during the mortgage crisis. There is a cabal, but it's smaller than some imagine (though still immensely powerful), and has plenty of powerful enemies.

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