Fri, Apr 26, 2013 - 5:36pm

If the CoT is true and accurate...and I have always thought it to be...then there can be no doubt that we are on the verge of major fiat-conversion price rallies in both metals, perhaps even something more dramatic.

(By "on the verge", I DO NOT mean "starting Monday". That is not what CoT analysis is all about. CoT analysis simply tells us how the sides are aligning and preparing for the next major move.)

I simply cannot stress enough how unusual and extraordinary this data is, particularly in silver. I gasped when I saw it. It is breathtaking...and you know I try very hard to avoid hyperbole. Let's get to it.


For the reporting week of 4/17 thru 4/23, gold was up about $21. Total open interest increased by 2,000 contracts. Sounds nice and simple...perhaps even mundane and boring. WRONG!

This week, AFTER gold had already fallen over $200, we saw these changes:

  • The Large Specs sold 7,500 longs and initiated 17,100 new shorts for a net long reduction of 24,600 contracts. They are now net long at a ratio of just 2.12:1.
  • The Small Specs sold 5,900 of heir longs and began 7,000 new shorts. This net long reduction of 12,900 contracts leaves them flat. Long 39,868 and short 39,735.
  • The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to buy 11,600 new longs and cover an amazing 25,900 existing shorts. This is a net short reduction of 37,500 contracts and leaves their net short ratio at a must-be-seen-to-be-believed 1.67:1.
  • Clearly, The Gold Cartel Bullion Banks have used the occasion of the $240 selloff in paper price to aggressively cover shorts and add longs. Which side do you think will profit from these changes? The Specs now nearly crowded into the short side (the SmallSpecs are net neutral, for Pete's sake!) OR The Cartel?


    Oh my goodness gracious, I really don't know what to say about the CoT picture in silver. There is now NO DOUBT that the oft-mentioned "Civil War" in silver, where the entire commercial category rises up and takes on JPM, is ON! It's happening right now, in real time.

    I was amazed last week that the silver commercials, who had openly challenged JPM by building a gross long position in excess of 60,000 contracts, had not been forced out of the long side by the $5 drop and the attendant margin hikes. You'll recall that last week, the Comm longs added contracts, instead. Not a lot but who cares? Just the simple fact that they didn't capitulate was HUGE. And now get a load of the action from this week:

    • The Large Specs sold 884 longs and added 1,713 new shorts for a net long reduction of 2,597 and a new net long ratio of just 1.63:1.
    • The Small Specs did the same. They dumped 1,895 longs and added 842 new shorts. Just like the gold Small Specs, the silver Small Specs are nearly neutral at long 20,782 and short 18,619.
    • Now, hold onto your hat. The Commercials in silver...this is the everybody but JPM crowd...added 6,617 new longs this week. Yes, that's right. After the brutal and malicious beatdown, not only didn't the CommLongs sell, they increased their gross position by over 10%! They are now long a could-it-be-a-misprint 68,258 contracts. This is unbelievable and, literally, twice the size of their historical average position. Because the other commercials were such heavy buyers, JPM and their two pals actually had to add shorts this week. ADD! At $23! The shorts now total 85,422 and the all-important Silver Cartel net short ratio has fallen all the way to a preposterously bullish 1.25:1.

    Look. I don't want to be over-dramatic here. However, I simply can't overstate how remarkable this is. There are some VERY COMMITTED, VERY DEEP POCKETS who are directly challenging the long-standing status quo in the silver pit. The questions are:

    • Why now?
    • What do they know? AND
    • What are they expecting next?

    Chew on that over the weekend and come back Monday with your game face on. Things are about to get very, very interesting.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:07am

    Guard your stack

    JPM keeps dumping comex silver until the longs REALIZE they have 0.00 chance of getting any physical and get out of their lenght (sell) and join the race to zero for paper. paper to zero has been said many times (tmosely i believe is pretty vocal). JPM being the only sell does not mean they are wrong. they have unlimited fiat to just bully this market. jpm will crush the comex.

    the selling will pick up steam and go to zero almost like a quantum leap.


    just my opinion

    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:15am

    Wow! Two exceptional interviews.


    The first is about medical errors gaining surgical hospitals more money
    rather than be penalize and then kidnapping "undocumented" comatose patients
    back to Mexico, without any hearing.

    Then second is just amazing.


    Howard Roark
    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:21am

    Layout prob

    Yes, some problems.

    Sometimes the page just doesn´t charge at all.

    But now, ok.



    Watcher alphamorph
    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:30am

    Dear Mr. Sinclair, As you are

    Dear Mr. Sinclair,

    As you are aware on April 19, 2013 I sent you an email and a gold chart titled “Bottom is In” that you posted with a heading of “$1300 Gold Never Again”. Here is the link: https://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/19/1300-goldnever-again/

    We await May 2-3, 2013 the first date referenced on the original chart. Please see below an update of the chart thru yesterday, April 23, 2013:

    Gold is right on target and performing perfectly this week. The bottom is in as of April 15, 2013 and as stated earlier $1300 will never be seen again. With regards to Silver, it has been the weaker of the two as it sits at the BOTTOM of the 8 year support line of the gold/silver ratio that PERFECTLY matches the FINAL low of October 2008 which marked the FINAL BOTTOM! See attached gold/silver ratio chart:


    The date clock I posted last week was May 2-3, 2013 and that clock is ticking for the metal to move up. There are 7 trading days remaining into next Friday, May 3rd and the wind will be to gold’s back the entire time pushing it UP!

    Additionally, there is a triangle that GLD is forming and is now running out of room, thus expect a BREAK-AWAY GAP to form very soon, see chart:

    The BOTTOM is in.

    All the best,
    CIGA Bo Polny

    And later this Bo Polny posted charts on jsmineset.com showing what he predicted on the breakaway gaps occuring.

    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:34am

    So JPM is adding silver

    So JPM is adding silver shorts at $23, what does this tell me? These guys are not messing around, they are planning to drive the silver price lower in the weeks or months ahead.

    Their game is not profit, it is price control to the downside. I think we will see a day when they sell 2 years of global production in 1 hour, it's coming.

    Gold Dog
    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:42am

    Mr Fix

    This one's for you!

    well, I don't much like walking

    but I love my El Dorado ride

    Tom Petty-Mojo-Candy
    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:44am


    No, I am using IE9 (In addition to Chrome and Firefox) but the Refresh/Layout issues I reported are still there in FF. And still this is the ONLY site I am having these issues. Cookies deleted, Cache deleted, same problem. Of course, I am perfectly prepared to accept that this might be a system/location issue.

    Please hat Tip this post ONLY if you still have problems with refreshing TFMR. Narrowing of view, HTML view (Blue script and elongated text with no graphics), separation of page boxes into individual boxes at the page foot etc. HTML problems.

    Dyna mo hum
    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:48am


    I am still having layout issues also with this site. Repeated page refreshes seem to work sometimes but never for long. I am using an older mac.

    Dyna mo hum philipat
    Apr 27, 2013 - 11:51am


    I have the very same issues and only at this site. This has been going on since we had all the outage problems a few weeks back.

    Apr 27, 2013 - 12:02pm


    Yes, agreed and also I have these problems ONLY with TFMR. I'm on a Sony Vaio with Windows 8 and a Compaq CQ43 with Windows 7. Same problem. Cookies and Cache all deleted. And, yes, I also agree that this is just since the "Outage/Upgrade" issues of several weeks ago.

    In addition to the issues I tried to describe above, also the issues include, poster avatars get lost and the "Hat Tips" get confused and move fron the top right of the post box to a conflicting place where the poster's avatar should be.

    IMHO, these are HTML issues.

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