IF

496
Fri, Apr 26, 2013 - 5:36pm

If the CoT is true and accurate...and I have always thought it to be...then there can be no doubt that we are on the verge of major fiat-conversion price rallies in both metals, perhaps even something more dramatic.

(By "on the verge", I DO NOT mean "starting Monday". That is not what CoT analysis is all about. CoT analysis simply tells us how the sides are aligning and preparing for the next major move.)

I simply cannot stress enough how unusual and extraordinary this data is, particularly in silver. I gasped when I saw it. It is breathtaking...and you know I try very hard to avoid hyperbole. Let's get to it.

GOLD

For the reporting week of 4/17 thru 4/23, gold was up about $21. Total open interest increased by 2,000 contracts. Sounds nice and simple...perhaps even mundane and boring. WRONG!

This week, AFTER gold had already fallen over $200, we saw these changes:

  • The Large Specs sold 7,500 longs and initiated 17,100 new shorts for a net long reduction of 24,600 contracts. They are now net long at a ratio of just 2.12:1.
  • The Small Specs sold 5,900 of heir longs and began 7,000 new shorts. This net long reduction of 12,900 contracts leaves them flat. Long 39,868 and short 39,735.
  • The Gold Cartel utilized all of this Spec selling to buy 11,600 new longs and cover an amazing 25,900 existing shorts. This is a net short reduction of 37,500 contracts and leaves their net short ratio at a must-be-seen-to-be-believed 1.67:1.
  • Clearly, The Gold Cartel Bullion Banks have used the occasion of the $240 selloff in paper price to aggressively cover shorts and add longs. Which side do you think will profit from these changes? The Specs now nearly crowded into the short side (the SmallSpecs are net neutral, for Pete's sake!) OR The Cartel?

    SILVER

    Oh my goodness gracious, I really don't know what to say about the CoT picture in silver. There is now NO DOUBT that the oft-mentioned "Civil War" in silver, where the entire commercial category rises up and takes on JPM, is ON! It's happening right now, in real time.

    I was amazed last week that the silver commercials, who had openly challenged JPM by building a gross long position in excess of 60,000 contracts, had not been forced out of the long side by the $5 drop and the attendant margin hikes. You'll recall that last week, the Comm longs added contracts, instead. Not a lot but who cares? Just the simple fact that they didn't capitulate was HUGE. And now get a load of the action from this week:

    • The Large Specs sold 884 longs and added 1,713 new shorts for a net long reduction of 2,597 and a new net long ratio of just 1.63:1.
    • The Small Specs did the same. They dumped 1,895 longs and added 842 new shorts. Just like the gold Small Specs, the silver Small Specs are nearly neutral at long 20,782 and short 18,619.
    • Now, hold onto your hat. The Commercials in silver...this is the everybody but JPM crowd...added 6,617 new longs this week. Yes, that's right. After the brutal and malicious beatdown, not only didn't the CommLongs sell, they increased their gross position by over 10%! They are now long a could-it-be-a-misprint 68,258 contracts. This is unbelievable and, literally, twice the size of their historical average position. Because the other commercials were such heavy buyers, JPM and their two pals actually had to add shorts this week. ADD! At $23! The shorts now total 85,422 and the all-important Silver Cartel net short ratio has fallen all the way to a preposterously bullish 1.25:1.

    Look. I don't want to be over-dramatic here. However, I simply can't overstate how remarkable this is. There are some VERY COMMITTED, VERY DEEP POCKETS who are directly challenging the long-standing status quo in the silver pit. The questions are:

    • Why now?
    • What do they know? AND
    • What are they expecting next?

    Chew on that over the weekend and come back Monday with your game face on. Things are about to get very, very interesting.

    TF

    About the Author

    Founder
    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

      496 Comments

    Marblesonac
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:40pm

    Second

    Although I like being thurd best of all!

    benny_bomb_boom
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:41pm

    boom

    that would be nice! TGIF huh mrTF. take time to enjoy it ;D 

    donnojackshit
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:41pm

    Yeah baby........

    On my way to Fiji and getting a foot massage at Airport whilst reading Turd!

    silver66
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:43pm

    sixth

    great write up

    Silver66

    Karankawa
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:43pm

    Wow!

    Thanks Turd. What an interesting couple of weeks.

    As crazy as the last couple of weeks have been, things seems to be accelerating, and I don't think things are going to 'quiet down' for some time to come.

    Have a restful weekend everybody.

    Bongo Jim
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:44pm

    Top ten

    So what, I want GOLD!

    seadocks
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:44pm

    bottom?

    Although you did not state it, it sounds like this could be the bottom that seemingly has been very elusive.

    seadocks
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:47pm

    JPM

    What are the implications of JPM having to add shorts at $23? Are they so powerful that they can overcome the other commercials? Or on the other hand, will they end up being able to garner outside support to continue to force the price down to make their $23 shorts profitable?

    Perhaps time will tell?

    Urban Roman
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:47pm

    Reckon I'll add to my tiny

    Reckon I'll add to my tiny stack next week. Oh, and plan a boating adventure...

    Mr. Fix
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:49pm

    Speaking of J.P. Morgan, oh goody, I'm thurd, :)

    JPMorgan Accounts For 99.3% Of The COMEX Gold Sales In The Last Three Months

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2013 - 14:28

    When just one firm accounts for 99.3% of the physical gold sales at the COMEX in the last three months it’s not what most of us on this side of the rainbow would consider “broad-based” selling. Of course discovering this kind of relevant information requires an internet connection, 2nd grade math and reading skills, and the desire to do a teeny-weeny bit of reporting. Sadly they’ve wandered so far down the rabbit hole that the concept of “physical demand” (i.e. people actually wanting to take possession of the stuff) is puzzling to them because the vast majority of the world’s so-called “gold-trading” takes place in the realm of make believe (which is their natural habitat). It’s all fun and games until somebody loses their metal and “somebody” has lost one hell of a lot of metal in the last 90 days... J P Morgan has fumbled ownership of 1,966,000 Troy ounces of gold since February 1. That’s 74% more gold than the US mint delivered through the US mint’s American Eagle program in all of 2012. I mention this because there’s little doubt in my mind that the US government is one of JPM’s gold “customers.” So (if I am correct) the same US government who just let the Morgue dump its gold on the COMEX floor will once again be suspending gold sales to peasants.

    And if that is not enough,

    I have another one for you:

    JPMorgan Receives No New COMEX Gold Today, Converts Registered Into Eligible

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2013 - 17:24

    Anyone waiting with bated breath for the moment when cell H25 in the daily Comex gold inventory update (the one showing JPM's total holdings of Eligible gold) shows 0.000 will have to wait at least one more day. According to today's update, as of Thursday (so excluding today's post-Europe close gold shenannigans) JPM's eligible for delivery gold inventory did not receive any new gold, which started the day at yesterday's record low (for the firm) level of 141,581.5 troy ounces, and would have ended flat, had it not been for the reclassification of 17.5k ounces of registered gold into eligible.

    J.P. Cubish
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:57pm

    Clink it

    Hold it in your hand. Clinck it. Be gentle, don't scratch it. No counter-party risk. No schemeing bankers. Sounds like freedom to my ears.

    mrneutron
    Apr 26, 2013 - 5:59pm
    Amberjack
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:00pm

    Love to see a major upward move but...

    As 'Ancientmoney' aptly pointed out on the last thread...JPM = Fed - and never fight the Fed, except with physical.

    I have a tube of Canadian Antelopes on the way (all I could find at the time) but the question is, regardless of the move up or down - will there be any physical to be had at any price?

    Apmex, et al are starting to look a lot like the ammo shelves at my LGS!

    AJ

    Long Ag, Au, Pb, Cu and Cu+Zn Alloys

    beinki
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:01pm
    Mr. Fix
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:01pm

    Good stories at the Silver Doctors:

    ALASDAIR MACLEOD- PHYSICAL GOLD VS PAPER GOLD: WAITING FOR THE DAM TO BREAK

    APRIL 26, 2013 BY THE DOC 4 COMMENTS

    dam breakingIn this article I will argue that the recent slide in the gold price has generated substantial demand for bullion that will likely bring forward a financial and systemic disaster for both central and bullion banks that has been brewing for a long time.
    To understand why, we must examine their role and motivations in precious metals markets and assess current ownership of physical gold, while putting investor emotion into its proper context.
     [Read more...]

    _________________________________________________________________________

    And there is this one also:

    JIM SINCLAIR: THE BIG DIRTY SECRET IS OUT: THERE IS NO GOLD!

    APRIL 26, 2013 BY THE DOC 9 COMMENTS

    big secretLegendary gold trader Jim Sinclair sent an email alert to subscribers last night, stating that the rig (gold manipulation) is up, and that the big dirty secret is out that there is no physical gold in volume. 

    Sinclair states that the biggest moves on a percentage basis for gold and gold stocks has just begun, andprovides a formula for profits in the gold sector here and now: [Read more...]

    ancientmoney Amberjack
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:02pm

    @Amberjack . . . yes sir! . . .

    Or, Ma'am . . . if you are Amber, and not Jack . . .

    "As someone aptly pointed out on the last thread...JPM = Fed - and never fight the Fed, except with physical."

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Let me say, I feel you are perfectly safe buying physical gold and silver here and now. In fact, it is the smartest thing to do, IMHO.

    Don't expect the COMEX/paper prices to reward your purchases, though. They will not!

    What you are doing is preparing for the new financial world, post-paper PMs. The more phyzz you have once we cross that threshold, the happier you will be.

    ancientmoney
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:11pm

    I would like to nominate . . .

    this New Hampshire lawmaker for next POTUS.

    https://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/04/25/300177/washington-planned-bosto...

    She may well end up like MN lawmaker Wellstone, though, I fear.

    Irene
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:13pm

    @victori

    One more point to add to your very excellent list:

    You believe that there exist ready short- to medium-term substitutes for silver in industrial applications.*

    *Hat tip to nonoverlapping for his inspiration on this point. ;)

    ReachWest
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:18pm

    @ancientmoney

    ancientmoney wrote:
    Let me say, I feel you are perfectly safe buying physical gold and silver here and now. In fact, it is the smartest thing to do, IMHO.

    Don't expect the COMEX/paper prices to reward your purchases, though. They will not!

    What you are doing is preparing for the new financial world, post-paper PMs. The more phyzz you have once we cross that threshold, the happier you will be.

    Succinct and to the point - sage advise. Worthy of numerous H/T's yesyes

    billhilly
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:19pm

    IF

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    If you can dream---and not make dreams your master;
    If you can think---and not make thoughts your aim,
    If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
    And treat those two impostors just the same:.
    If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
    Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
    And stoop and build'em up with worn-out tools;

    If you can make one heap of all your winnings
    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
    And lose, and start again at your beginnings,
    And never breathe a word about your loss:
    If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
    To serve your turn long after they are gone,
    And so hold on when there is nothing in you
    Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

    If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
    Or walk with Kings---nor lose the common touch,
    If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
    If all men count with you, but none too much:
    If you can fill the unforgiving minute
    With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
    Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
    And---which is more---you'll be a Man, my son!

    Rudyard Kipling
    Prize Fighter
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:43pm

    Fiji....wait up!  Airport

    Fiji....wait up! Airport foot massage sounds like Bangkok?

    Slick
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:43pm

    Something to read while you ponder all that Cot data

    Don't know if its already been linked here somewhere... Looks like a good read! .............. By MATT TAIBBI Everything Is Rigged: The Biggest Price-Fixing Scandal Ever The Illuminati were amateurs. The second huge financial scandal of the year reveals the real international conspiracy: There's no price the big banks can't fix https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-bigg...

    ancientmoney ReachWest
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:49pm

    @Reach West re: phyzz . . .

    Thank you for the kind words.

    In my heart of hearts, I believe that fiat, and fiat-denominated paper assets are doomed. Exact timing unknown.

    But, physical gold and silver are not going appreciably lower from here.

    Premiums will rise to counterbalance COMEX drops. Anuone thinking it wise to wait for better PM phyzz prices will be sadly empty-handed. 

    The big re-do will not be slow and protracted. No, it will be overnight. We will all wake up to a whole new reality.

    SilverTree
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:55pm

    Hmm ZH has an IF post as

    Hmm ZH has an IF post as well.

    AlexCojones
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:57pm

    Thank God No Shortages Yet In....

    No shortages yet reported in goat babies... but...

    Unprecedented Gold, Silver, Ammo Shortages All Over US ...

    Might head over to the LCS

    Spartacus Rex
    Apr 26, 2013 - 6:58pm

    IF @ bill hilly -Rudyard Kipling

    Pretty good.

    For all the physical stackers out there, this one is for you:

    HOLDING

    In the bitter waves of woe,

    Beaten and tossed about

    By the sullen winds that blow

    From the desolate shores of doubt,

    Where the anchors that faith has cast

    Are dragging in the gale,

    I am quietly holding fast

    To the things that cannot fail.

    ~ Washington Gladden

    Buying the Dips and Building the Stacks

    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. Benjamin Franklin

    Mr. Fix
    Apr 26, 2013 - 7:05pm

    The "If" post on Zero Hedge is about gold, so I stole it.

    "If" - Reflections On The Precious Metals

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2013 - 18:38

    Last week's collapse in precious metals prices reminded Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson of Rudyard Kipling's famous poem 'If' - "If you can keep your head when all those about you are losing theirs." This brief but complete summary of why one should hold gold, the theories about the drop, his view of the manipulation - "would it really surprise anyone?", and the ongoing and increasing realization among the mainstream that a rising gold price is the canary in the coalmine of economic distress and currency debasement is well worth the price of admission. His message is clear,buy physical gold - rather than futures - don't use margin and store it somewhere safe. The last three minutes of "Ifs" are a succinct list of the questions everyone should ask themselves about the status quo.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-26/if-reflections-precious-metals

    dolphindude
    Apr 26, 2013 - 7:09pm

    Jamie Carrasco has good take on producers

    This guy made me stop and listen as BNN was droning on in the background. He makes a strong argument for owning producers. Go to https://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call-Tonight.aspx

    He is with Macquarie Private Wealth in Canada.

    ballyale
    Apr 26, 2013 - 7:19pm

    They want to take take JPM's Fiat!

    I think that that the foreign sovereigns will go long the PM's, if only to prevent JPM from reaping another windfall as they try to exit their massive shorts. I think that these Foreign entities are simply waiting for the last JPM short to be placed. It will be at that point that they will buy massive amounts of paper and BK JPM. What do they care about taking delivery. THEY WANT TO TAKE JPM'S FIAT!!!

    I think that that there is lot to the premise that it is in the interests and even an inevitability that JPM and the Fed will do everything to continue to short the Gold and Silver market as much as they can down to zero on the Comex market, declare Force Majeur, and get out from under their shorts with an ENORMOUS PROFIT as they pay out only on cash pennies for their short positions.

    It has been proposed that they then take all that profit and buy up as many broken Miners as possible in anticipation of a global fiat reset in Gold.

    Two things bother me about this scenario, which, indeed has been playing itself out.

    1. Even my limited understanding of the COT seems to suggest that there is an equal or greater amount of push back from other entities on the paper market. Now, who and why would they be?

    1a. Certainly, they have to be entities with available funds almost equal to the JPM and Fed. Those could only come from foreign entities, perhaps in conjunction with other BB's, who have made deals with the foreign entities.

    2. Supposition #2. Given that these FE's have that much fiat clout, what would be their motivation to push back at this point in time and why?

    2a. It might simply be an elemental human desire for revenge. JPM et al screwed the global banking system and Sovereigns and their banks by knowingly selling them all those fraudulent toxic MBS mortgages, where they lost 40 to 80% of their value within a year or two with no upside in site. Worse, they shorted those MBS "securities" knowing they would lose value. Now the properties decay year by year, without maintenance, to crack houses and burn and bulldozed down. Finally,they then saw that the US Treas. and the Fed bail them out of most if not all of their bad bets on the backs of the US Tax payer, while THEY became the bag holders, with no exit strategy and no buyers.

    HMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    If I were a foreign sovereign bag holder, I would view this as a financial war.

    What's the best way to fight back. They've already lost the MBS war.

    The most vulnerable area is the PM market where JPM is totally vulnerable, IMO. These entities have the monetary power, perhaps, equal or in excess, to the Fed's, since they have real FRN's as currency and US Bonds, in excess of what the Fed can realistically print.

    Ever since the announcement of QE printing the PM's have gone down. As I have said before, QE has simply allowed the Banks to sell their toxic MBS to the Fed and freed up money to short the PM's to keep the impression that the Dollar was strong via other currencies.

    According to Turd, and I agree, that's exactly what happened at 11 AM this morning. They got their latest 30Billion MBS selloff from the Fed and in return they smashed the PM market. Quite a deal!

    Conclusion: This fraud can't go on forever.

    Sometimes my second hand readings and analyses by others of the significance of the COT reports make me feel what the Romans Officials must have felt when getting a readings from the entrails of sacrificial animals or the flight of certain birds.

    Who needs history books or documentaries in order to understand the people of Ancient times? Just invest a substantial sum in the PMs whether phyzz. or paper and viola, you will experience all the joys and apprehension are long brethren experienced. You will also experience all the thrills that the soothsayers come out and do their predictions. There never was a lack of professional soothsayers. If prostitution was the first profession ever created, then the rise of gambling was the second, though, perhaps not as a profession, per se. With the rise of gambling due to the successful rise of excess food and goods over immediate needs, the soothsayers, in one form or another must have been the third profession, followed by alcohol makers, which aided the first one and comforted the third one, esp. when found out to be on the losing side of your bet or even the winning side.

    ancientmoney
    Apr 26, 2013 - 7:21pm

    @SouthernCross . . . in your wheelhouse . . .

    This article is for everyone, but dovetails with your outlook quite well . . .

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-26/guest-post-good-guys-are-not-c...

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