Just Some Charts

219
Mon, Apr 22, 2013 - 1:49pm

Because it's late and this is about all I can handle for today.

We had a little bit of a rally today but did you notice that gold was stopped in its tracks when:

  1. The Comex opened for trading and
  2. It had reached the all-important "2% cap". In fact, there was a clear movement afoot to close gold back under the 1% cap and they nearly made it.

So, now, here we are. Yes, it's always nice (and rare) to begin the week on an UP note. But don't be fooled...nothing much has been accomplished. I had expected/hoped that the drop out of the 19-month ranges would be nothing but a brief, stop-running exercise. Instead, the thing took on a life of its own last Monday and now we learn via the CoT that The Cartels didn't even cover. The LargeSpecs did. All of this infers that further weakness and volatility may be coming. Let's hope not but until prices get back into the 19-month ranges (above $1525-1550 and $26), we must remain vigilant.

And here is your homework assignment / thought experiment for the day. I want you to print off these three charts. Place the gold chart on top of the copper chart and hold it up to the light. Then, do the same with silver and copper. Having done that, let me ask you this:

Why are these charts nearly identical? Other than being elements on the periodic table, what do these metals have in common. If your list of commonalities is short, why do they trade as they do? And because they trade nearly in tandem, what does this say about the current method of price discovery?

OK, that's all. Gotta go. Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  219 Comments

Hagarth
Apr 22, 2013 - 7:04pm

Best thing ever is a Global slowdown!

After looking at Mr. Fergusons chart, my original idea that copper would fall causing miners to stick to the high grade Cu ores thus diminishing the silver production would seem to be spot on.

Sure its awfully early to expect them to do this now, and it would be terrible to have to wait but if TEOTWAWKI doesn't happen global growth and resources will be crushed.

After everything that has happened in the last month the approaching Superstorm seems have its winds in the CAT 1 area. Maybe bordering on the CAT 2, ILL WINDS A BLOWING!

Mr. Sinclair mentioned the Basel III requirements for Bail-ins earmarked for this year NOT 2015 as proposed, BUT Christine Legarde pushed for EARLY IMPLEMENTATION with some support coming from other banker lackeys. THE CRAP IS ABOUT TO HIT THE FAN.

NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO SECOND GUESS TURD. YOU'RE ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND YOUR FAMILY REQUIRES YOU TO THE BEST YOU CAN FOR THEM....NOT US!

Mickey
Apr 22, 2013 - 7:18pm

all the markets are broken

so what markets are not behaving abnormally?

Mood here is subdued which probably means those who like gold for the long term but are not here are also subdued.

Exhausted more like it.

While we might have a knock down now I surmise most everybody here is already light PM. And there is not too much BTFD going on from our crowd despite all the shortages in silver.

My guess is there are a lot of newbies in PM because they remember well what's happened to the upside and never got in so they swore to themselves if the price dropped sufficiently they would buy in.

I am light metals now-want to see some upside action before putting fiat to work. But I do not want to chase prices---that's when it gets dangerous.

I can see cartel or whomever playing a set up for those chasing prices.

The bounce we have recently had was just that. Good chance some of us may be selling into this rally. But lets say this continues --if we get back to 1500 I'd say we get strong buying especially if we start seeing 10-15 every day during the NYSE day. With minimal pullback. Then you accelerate your buys whether physical or paper.

Then, just when everybody is getting excited again, pop. Thats how you do the damage.

Having said all this, even though this is a community, we are all on our own.

Mickey
Apr 22, 2013 - 7:26pm

I am also of the opinion (with others)

that the system is broken. Look how many gyrations cb's and govts are going thru to buy some time.

There will be a trigger to create a series of events to take down the system. If I knew when I'd be out of the market till the day before (except for my physical). But it will be "fast and furious" when it comes. Then people not in PM, of food will really be chasing prices.

Flying Wombat
Apr 22, 2013 - 7:37pm

Eric

Good stuff. Thank you.


Apr 22, 2013 - 7:44pm

Oh my goodness

Another 18.35 metric tonnes withdrawn from the GLD today. You're not supposed to notice that price was rebounding and that those who were going to sell have now most likely sold.

Regardless, this brings the total withdrawal since 4/11/12 to 76.71 metric tonnes. Using our old quantification system, that's:

2,466,283 troy ounces

OR

6,166 London bars

OR

32 of these pallets. Since Thursday, the 11th. Right before this "episode" began.


Apr 22, 2013 - 7:46pm
EWS111
Apr 22, 2013 - 7:48pm

Warning to other Turdville

Warning to other Turdville Physical investers!!!!! ---- Goldmart!!!

Evidently at Goldmart "In Stock - Ready to Ship" doesn't mean the same thing that it does at Apmex, Provident, or Tulving!

I placed an order with them 4-4-13 they acknowledged they received my funds on 4-8-13. The item I purchased (ASE's) was shown to be In "Stock - Ready to Ship" from before my order till 4-17-13. At that time they went to a "Delayed" listing on the item which is understandable!

My point is this! I was under the understanding that if the item is in stock ready to ship and You place a paid for order order, the item is then allocated to You and within the stated shipping policy and no matter what happens to the supply chain in the future it wont affect your order. I know this to be the fact with Apmex, Tulving, Provident, and Texas Precious Metals!

I'm not unreasonable in that Provident and Apmex are showing EXPECTED availability 0f 4-30 on ASE's. I realize that were I to place an order with them on ASE's I would be taking on the risk that there supplier didn't come through on 4-30 delivery!

What do You Think?

champuga
Apr 22, 2013 - 7:52pm

Silver down for the week now

Unbelievable...no physical for sale but paper price keeps going down


Apr 22, 2013 - 7:55pm

And this is very good

https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=52921

"If the FBI can track down two homicidal Chechen nobodies inside of forty-eight hours of their Boston bombing caper, you kind of wonder how come the Bureau can’t detect the odor of racketeering, insider trading, and wire fraud in this month’s orchestrated smackdown of the gold futures markets, including the parts played by the Federal reserve, one or more too-big-to-fail banks, self-interested big money players such as George Soros, slumbering regulators at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and tractable editors at The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times...."


Apr 22, 2013 - 8:05pm

And we must watch this closely

From Harvey tonight:

The following is very scary!!!
Thus the dealer inventory (registered) rests tonight at 2.280 million oz (70.9) tonnes of gold.
The total of all gold at the comex (eligible) rests at 8.781 million oz or 273.3 tonnes.
The comex is slowly losing its gold both at the dealer end and the customer.
The CME reported that we had 42 notices filed for 4200 oz of gold today. The total number of notices so far this month is thus 10,415 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 1,045,700 oz of gold. In order to establish what will be the total number of gold ounces standing, I take the OI for April (585) and subtract out Monday's delivery notices (42) which leaves us with 543 contracts or 54,300 oz left to be served upon our longs.

Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:

1,045,700 (served) + 54,300 oz (left to be served upon ) = 1,100,000 oz or
34.21 tonnes of gold.

we lost 3500 oz of gold standing for the April gold contract. This is turning out to be a very big delivery month!

With nearly 35 tonnes standing for delivery in April, simple math now shows the registered inventory being only sufficient to cover two more delivery months...June and August...not even considering how many will jump the queue and barge in for May or July.

Hmmmm.......from where will the banks find registered and deliverable gold when the well runs dry???

Strongsidejedi
Apr 22, 2013 - 8:47pm

gulp

TF-meistahhh... with the key factoid...

making copies... of gold bars at the copy machine...

oh oh...out of gold ink... making copiessss and pasting....

oh yeahhh...

making copies...

¤
Apr 22, 2013 - 8:50pm

Blind Eye Syndrome

Regarding the Burning Platform quote.

I think it's simply a matter of those who are in the know or who might have regulatory oversight or enforcement know exactly what's going on except that a basic human survival instinct on some level has allowed for or necessitated a selective blind eye.

I'm not condoning, advocating or suggesting they're right to have a blind eye in the grand scheme of what we consider to be improper, criminal or manipulative practices at all. But if you're someone who has a full time cushy Govt. job no matter what level or branch of the govt you work in (Justice Dept. included) and you fully realize that you're totally up against it (even AG Holder has openly admitted he won't or can't do anything about it) then what would be the point?

Once again, that's not a capitulation or blind eye by myself. But if any potential white knight knows full well that by bringing down some large and ongoing criminal syndicate-like entities that it would completely start the dominoes falling and that everything in the markets or financial system crashed....would you want to be the one to try to take 'them' on and probably lose because no one else will back you up?

But if you were a white knight and successful in doing so...are you in a hurry to lose your job, crash your reputation with TPTB (or any other sector you try to get employed by thereafter) or cause economic mayhem on scale never seen or imagined before when the system crashes? If you're one of "us" the answer is ..."Hell yeah!"

If your one of "them" then the answer is probably ...."No freaking way, let someone else throw themselves on the bonfire!".... then it makes more sense why some or many aren't even attempting to blow the whistle or have the type of media or professional scrutiny that would come with arresting or bringing charges at the highest level.

It's sad to say that human nature is allowing some huge things to take place but that's what I see. Any future whistleblower already at work in govt on any level (especially the one's at the top who have the most to lose in a professional way) who already have a nice life (and pension) probably don't want the headaches (or career suicide) even if it's morally or ethically the right thing to do.

Look no further then the top law enforcement guy in the country... AG Eric Holder... and what he's stated about TBTF's. If you're anyone below him in the food or career chain then what sense would it make to blow your career and get labeled if you know the buck stops with him?

We're in a bad place these days and many people are feeling cornered, helpless or just throwing their hands up in the air as they've given up and decided to blend into the background and not fight the colossus when it's rigged in their favor in every manner possible.

It sucks to realize this and my hope would be that some almost retired, single person who has no one dependent on them is the one to try and take TPTB on with little regard for their career or well being afterwards or the scrutiny that would follow while they try to bring the giants down.

It all starts at the top....and Eric holder has openly stated he's not interested because of the societal or economic consequences. How do you fight that when he doesn't have your back?

We're up against it. Many little people with jobs who might be able to do something realize this also and they're going with the flow while there is still a 'normal' flow keeping them fed and employed. It might be as simple and sad as that.

The rule of law on some very basic levels has eroded to the point that many with the means to make a difference are in survival mode even if it's only career survival mode and it means staying employed. A blind short-sighted eye is what I'm calling it.

Frustrating? You bet it is.

In the end, TPTB will crash themselves from that same blind egotistical eye because the self destructive mannerisms we're seeing play out always lead to those pompous asses crashing themselves due to that blind spot of narcissistic belief that they're infallible....until they trip and fall/crash while lots of little folks get crushed with them before, during and after.

We can only hope for this to happen at some point when they do inevitably stumble....

dgstage
Apr 22, 2013 - 8:53pm

My Question

When will the well run dry????

Larry
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:01pm

Don't be a Cartel psyops casualty

Don't let the Psyops BS brought to you by your own government and their bankster handlers get you down. Don't allow them to make you fear your reasoned decision to hold true money. Not for one single moment. The only reason to sell physical gold, or silver or their respective mining shares is if we have to in order to pay bills and have no paper scrip available and we can't eliminate enough of our personal expenses to stretch a bit. No other reason should gold, silver and (good) mining shares be vacated at this point. This is what the last pm rout has been orchestrated to cause. But they only fooled those that are unaware of their grand scheme. Not us.

These days look and feel a lot like a tipping point. The last two years have been, putting it lightly, a grind and a test of our understanding of gold and silver... and the economies of the world. The downside from here, if we even get any, is minimal. We don't know price and time but it looks as though one is high and the other is nigh.

Hugo explains:

.:Plata:.

s1lverbullet
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:12pm

Holy F'in Shit Turd

Almost 77 tons gone in only 11 DAYS. That is incredible. If all of this metal is really going to the LBMA and then heading east then things are starting to change very rapidly. It makes sense though doesn't it? Smash price to try to kill the demand because physical demand is about to overwhelm you. At least, that is how it is suppose to work. Now the problem though is that too many people are onto them and they are in deep shit. The smash had the opposite effect. If demand keeps this pace this is going to be one hell of an interesting year. Its looking like a LBMA default, and if they some way get out unscathed it doesn't matter anyway. China will be backing the Yuan with gold soon and when that happens the dollar take a giant hit. Game over banker crooks.

bigal60
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:19pm

Google trends spiking

Just checked google trends and buy gold, buy silver are almost as high as the 2011 tops. Also apmex has gone past its previous all time high. Just an FYI on the trends. Does not mean anything but it is interesting.

The Vet
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:20pm

We may not know where GLD's gold is going.....

but it is obviously not showing up in the COMEX depositories, which is rather curious as most of the big APs are the same banks that own and run those facilities. One would think that's were it normally would pass through even if it didn't remain there. It seems it is being used to plug holes in the LBMA delivery backlog.

billhilly
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:21pm

My question...

Turd, what was in that drink you had? Way to get your MOJO back !!!!!!!! Excellent comments.

The Vet
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:27pm

Force majeure - on COMEX

Wiki...

"Force majeure is generally intended to include risks beyond the reasonable control of a party, incurred not as a product or result of the negligence or malfeasance of a party, which have a materially adverse effect on the ability of such party to perform its obligations,"

It's clear that COMEX cannot legitimately declare a valid force majeure as that is defined as an causitive event beyond their reasonable control. They know full well that short sellers are selling contracts on metal that cannot be delivered and they can control the situation by simply enforcing position limits on short sellers, using the same powers which they already impose on the longs.

Texas Sandman
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:29pm

@biga160

Don't imply that this is anything like the 2011 tops just because the search activity is approximating it.

We are at or near a low, not a high, in a bull market that should stretch to 2017 or so. The biggest gains for both silver & gold should occur in the final year & I will bet the search activity from 2011 will be completely blown away at that time.

The EE screwed the pooch on this takedown & at this point they know it. They ushered in the final phase of the bull which will likely feature the complete discrediting of the paper markets.

Texas Sandman
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:30pm

@Vet: Horse manure on Comex

The cave-in of that UT mine will suffice for silver. In fact, it's the ideal opportunity. Nothing closer to an "act of god" exists.

s1lverbullet
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:31pm

Not 11 days. Only 7!

That's just seven trading days

billhilly Flying Wombat
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:31pm

@flying wombat,

member for 2 hours and you give a 5/5 star comment... Excellent !

Your point about what's going on in the OTC market has been sucking my energy dry for weeks now. With all the info we have on hand, we are still missing a LARGE part of the equation. It's tough to do math well when we are guessing at certain figures.

Another part of the equation we seem not to be too focused on is the upstream supply part of the picture. Yes, physical stocks are low in the retail sector but what are the real numbers on the wholesale level ? Like a grocery who puts coffee on sale, they may soon run out but they are able to replenish stock after a short time. Where do the wholesalers stand regarding Au/Ag?

Welcome aboard FW.

The Vet
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:32pm

Ahhhh...

Now you're getting somewhere...

bigal60
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:33pm

@Texas Sandman

Not saying we are at a top. If anything we have been presented with the best buying opportunity in the last 3 years. What I find interesting is that the search volume is at or almost at an all time high and the run has not even begun. I am looking at it as an awakening in more people to cause the spike. I am just curious how this will play out once the price starts to go up. If we are already matching the fast fun up of 11 then this next one should be explosive.

bigal60
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:41pm

@Turd ?

If they trade at 100x's the physical (Jeff Christian) would the numbers of registered or eligible be accurate or is there a good change that this is just the number that would keep people calm from taking delivery of their allocated gold.

maravich44 TF
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:43pm
Texas Sandman
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:47pm

@biga160

The answer is that any significant investment demand by the public at large & silver spikes. It's a tiny market. I mean, look at what Bunker Hunt did with perhaps $2 billion... Sure, that's alot of money, but any significant exposure to silver in retirement accounts would best that by an order of magnitude, if not two. Perhaps a billion ounces above ground, that's what... 3 ozs for every american. We're talking a tiny market here, much, much smaller than gold.

¤
Apr 22, 2013 - 9:56pm

position limits....there are none

The Comex can't enforce short position limits on those who have a grandfather clause that gives them that unique (a.k.a. cronyism) situation where they enjoy a limitless capacity to naked short sell because it's legal for them to do so.

It sucks for everyone else but those are the legal standards they play by and until they lose that grandfather status they'll take advantage of it until they can't.

The problem is the CFTC. It starts and ends there and when they refused to do anything about it or question it last year it emboldened the big shorts. Why wouldn't it?

I believe that's one of the biggest reasons JPM wasn't held accountable in the lawsuits brought against them. Legally they're not doing anything wrong as far as mindlessly shorting. Ethically is another thing altogether but when has ethics ever stopped big business from doing what they know they can get away with?

Sucks for us. The grandfathered cartel loves their legal situation.

The CFTC merely wants to keep their jobs or any job they might elevate to at some point possibly within the cartel somewhere after their tenure is done there. We see it happen all the time. It's a corporate/lobbyist merry-go-round.

One hand washes the other while no one wants to dirty theirs if they don't have to.

Human nature.

billhilly
Apr 22, 2013 - 10:00pm

DPH...blind eye syndrome

Your comment says SO much. It addresses the entire spectrum of possibilities and probabilities regarding "coming out" with damning info. Yes, what would each of us do in their situations ? It is hard to say because we are not in their shoes and not privy to their complete picture. I hate the thought that maybe if my career/family etc.. were threatened I too might be so inclined to keep quiet. It is a very tough call, and I have sympathy for those who are in this predicament.

I have to believe that many, many people start out in public careers with honorable intention but then are likely overwhelmed with the level of corruption and indifference that they are subject to. "Play the game or else".

Thanks for such a well thought out and detailed comment.

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