Today is Wednesday

Wed, Apr 17, 2013 - 11:22am

Which means that tomorrow is Thursday. Well, that's exciting!

So here we are. The metals aren't sharply rebounding but at least they're not still falling. Intelligent people around the globe are rushing to gobble up as much gold at "sale prices" as possible. Here's a good summary link from ZH: And of course, anecdotal stories about retail shortages persist here in the U.S. Though certainly some dealers are simply refusing to sell at the current price (no doubt at a loss), many report to simply being "sold out".

The U.S. Mint continues to sporadically report its sales data. They haven't updated since last week, so the numbers on their site are suspect. Regardless, as you can see, Silver Eagle sales are trending quite well and look at the Gold ounces! For April month-to-date, 83,500 ounces have already been sold. Compare this to 62,000 for all of March and 80,500 for all of February. Additionally, April of 2012 saw just 20,000 total where April 2011 had 108,000. Clearly we can throw another big, anecdotal log on the fire.

Moving along, as you know ole Harvey keeps track of gold deliveries every day so check this out. Back on First Notice Day, the April gold contract had 6,601 contracts standing for delivery. Since FND, the amount standing for delivery has increased to 11,141. That's an increase of 4,540 contracts or 454,000 ounces! That's a lot. Recall that many of us tied the February takedown to the unusually high (14,000+) number of contracts standing for delivery that month. Is this current beatdown also related to Comex delivery? And one more thing...1,114,100 is 34.65 metric tonnes. OK, hold onto that number for a moment...

Last Thursday, I wrote the post on GLD in which I tried to give you some measure of the scale of the "inventory" reductions. When I typed that post, the GLD allegedly held in "inventory" 1,183.53 metric tonnes of gold. As of last night, the GLD is down to 1,145.92. That's a reduction of...wait for it...37.61 metric tonnes. (Oh, and we're supposed to think that gold sold off because Cyprus is being forced to sell 10 mts.) Now down exactly 204 metric tonnes YTD, the alleged GLD "inventory" has fallen 15.11% since 1/2/13.

But back to just the last 4 days. Another 37.61 metric tonnes is 1,209,189 troy ounces or another 16 pallets.

Here's another link for you. As you know, I got my "start" at ZH a long time ago. One of the guys hanging around back then went by the name "Gordon Gekko", as in the "Wall Street" character. Anyway, he was always a sharp dude and he now has his own blogspot site, too. On there yesterday, he posted a terrific piece echoing many of the same things we consistently advocate here. You should read this:

As we look at the mainstream media, here are two items that are completely surprising, considering the sources. First, here's a link from The Telegraph. Can you believe that this actually made it past the editors and into print? And then last night, while I'm at the gym, The Idiot Cramer is on discussing gold. Since he discussed it using many of the same metrics we use here, maybe I should lighten up on him a bit. Perhaps he's a closet Turdite? Maybe both he and Santelli appreciate the finer qualities of canned bacon?

And you simply must take the time to read both of the articles linked below. Perhaps you're new here and searching for answers after this latest, contrived "event". DO NOT BELIEVE THE MEDIA SPIN. If you truly want answers, they are contained within these two excellent, forensic analyses. Please read and study them both.

The title of the Chris Martenson post sort of follows along a theme I mentioned back on Monday. Consider this. It's not a perfect analogy but it's close:

Much of the outrage of The Financial Crisis of 2008 stemmed from the money lust of the bankers. They created mountains of worthless securities and took on what became systemic risk. And, in doing so, they paid themselves exorbitant amounts of money. When it all came crashing down, they weren't held accountable. Not even financially accountable. The TBTF losses were transferred onto the backs of the citizenry through TARP and other such chicanery. In the end, the banks took on the risks but, when it all inevitably failed, the public took the losses.

Fast forward to this instant. The banks have been managing and manipulating the price of precious metals for decades through fractional reserve bullion banking. This entire system seems to be on the verge of collapse as physical demand is applying incredible pressure to a system that is built upon 100:1 leverage. For example, a major bullion bank, ABN Amro, has recently defaulted, opting to force cash settlement upon depositors rather than supply physical gold. So now the banks, which have been short and naked short paper metal for decades, have once again assumed massive, system-threatening risk...and what are they doing?? They are once again transferring that risk to "private sector". How you ask? Look at the CoT structure. In silver, where we all expect the initial disconnect to occur, the banks are now likely net long while the speculators (private hedge funds, managed money, etc) are now net short. In making this change, which side now has the ultimate risk when price explodes? The banks? Nope. They're long and ready to profit. Once again, the banks win and the public (albeit the wealthy hedge fund and managed money-investing public) loses.

As we wrap this post, let's go back and focus on the title for a moment. Today is Wednesday. Tomorrow is Thursday. At this point, all I ask is that you check this site a few times tomorrow and that you clear your calendar for tomorrow evening. It's going to be a memorable day. To whet your appetite, watch this. It's only about 90 seconds long. Buried in the archives here at TFMR, you'll find this post: I leave you today with this follow-up: The "he" who has "high hopes" doesn't refer to me and it doesn't refer to Andy, either.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 17, 2013 - 11:31am



well almost

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:33am
Apr 17, 2013 - 11:33am

Despite Excel Error, This Time, It’s Still Not Different

The best-selling book, This Time It’s Different (2010) , which warned against a high government debt-to-GDP ratio, relied on an Excel spreadsheet. Problem: one of the cells was wrong. An article exposing this error has gotten a lot of coverage in the media. Liberals have cheered. At last, relief! They can still remain in the stands, cheering for increased government debt. Whether this glitch will undermine the book’s overall thesis is problematic. But it will surely force an updated edition. Liberals, who groused before, will from now on say, “Revisions don’t matter.” The fact that it took three years for someone to spot this error is indicative of the power of the computer to mislead people. Once a computer-generated economic thesis gets picked up by the media, no one checks. Reagan was right: “Trust, but verify.” Three scholars finally checked. The numbers did not add up. Here is the more important problem. There are no fixed cause-and-effect statistical ratios in economic theory. Ludwig von Mises warned about this for his entire career. There are historical relationships. There is no way of knowing if they will hold in the future. They are not economic laws. The problem with a rising government-debt-to-GDP ratio is that government is getting bigger proportionally. Free market economists know that this will ratio eventually reverse. Government expansion in relation to the private sector will undermine productivity, i.e., reduce GDP. As to what statistical ratio will prevail when this happens in any nation, no one knows. Excel will not help us to find out. Glitches happen. Keynesianism is a very big glitch. It has excelled. Garbage in, garbage out. This time, it’s still not different. Non-Austrian economists still cling to their historical relationships, as if these were anything other than historical relationships.

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:34am

What, a first for me

A drive by shooting?

Nope fourth.

Mr. Fix
Apr 17, 2013 - 11:34am


Apr 17, 2013 - 11:34am

First First First!!!

Who cares if the price drops? First, first, first! FEED THE TURD!

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:34am

can't believe this isn't on Drudge or ZH yet

Pressure cookers in backpacks. Looks like 4 guys.

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:34am

top ten!!


Apr 17, 2013 - 11:34am

The co-conspirator speaks

Apparently, Thunderlips was on Bloomberg earlier today. Will post a link if/when I find it.

News Headline Summary

CFTC's Chilton says regulators looking at role of market speculators; agency is looking at gold and silver moves

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:35am

new icon

gotta be useful lots of places


Apr 17, 2013 - 11:36am


happy wednesday to you all!

nice teaser video for the documentary... every time I see Andy talk, I have to think about all those youtube pundits who keep saying that Andy doesn't exist!

Dark Matter
Apr 17, 2013 - 11:37am

Gold’s fair value is $800 an ounce

I hope they are wrong...



That’s the depressing assessment from Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager for Trust Company of the West, and co-author — with Campbell Harvey, a Duke University university finance professor — of an academic study from last June that is looking to be increasingly prophetic. (...)

On the contrary, Erb told me Monday morning, he thinks it is unrealistic to expect gold’s decline “to play itself out very quickly.” Referring to the five stages of grief that were made famous by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, he believes the gold market right now is just in the first stage: denial.

The next four stages, for those of you who need reminding, are anger, bargaining, depression and, finally, acceptance.

(...) Erb said that gold’s recent plunge is the all-too-predictable result of an asset whose price has become disconnected from fundamental value. While he allowed that gold could very well stage a powerful rally from here, he predicted that its final bear-market low will be a lot lower than where it stands today.

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:45am

SRS might get a kick out of

SRS might get a kick out of this piece, this guy thinks fracking is going to save the US economy and more.

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:45am

SRSRocco, please read and comment . . .

Brought forward from last thread:

I don't know Gary Dorsch, if he has any sort of agenda, but he seems to think the Dow/gold ratio will rise in Dow's favor due to:

1. ongoing $85B into stocks every month;

2. Implicit Bernanke "put" is still in play for stock investors;

3. Relatively cheap (he says) U.S. shale oil production he expects to save the day, and rise to over 4mbpd from just over 1mbpd now.

Your research says this (cheap shale oil going forward) isn't going to happen, as I understand it. Is there something new here by Dorsch that has potential to be a gamechanger? Even if you are right and he is wrong, this could be the perception that is being bought and sold by the big boyz, as it is the one they want entertained.

If he is right, or if that is the perception that wins the day, then gold may well suffer for quite awhile.

However, silver should be set up for its moonshot. Rising Dow and cheap oil, meaning new life for the economy would mean new need for a lot of silver going forward. And, with stupidly out-of-synch GSR right now, it would appear that even if gold were to drift back some, silver should close that GSR to more normal, historical range. The fact that silver has been pounded even harder than gold by the likes of JPM may be for this reason.

There has to be a very good reason that JPM is custodian for SLV, as they have inside info nobody else has access to. I like silver here, no matter what the shale oil situation is, or is perceived to be.

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:49am

Article from Jesse

snipped from the article:

"And if you wish to get a bit more baroque, gold may have been a necessary misdirection with the real target being silver, which hardly anyone is talking about, even the house economists and spokesmodels for the status quo. For now its all about gold, and don't mention silver."

Apr 17, 2013 - 11:52am

Wait for it...

Last week has been a big quake for the PMs and came with a big sound. Now a lot of people are awake and buying gold and silver all over the world.

I guess all we have to do is wait for the tsunami waves hitting the shores. When the waves will hit, nothing will be able to stop the move. Sit on a high place and wait for it.

Hold on to your helmets.

Thanks for the posts Turd. Great job as always....

Stack'em High
Apr 17, 2013 - 11:55am
Loud Noises
Apr 17, 2013 - 11:59am


That's the most cryptic end to a thread I've ever seen here. I also have high hopes that whatever Turd, Andy, and "he" are hoping for, comes to pass.

Apr 17, 2013 - 12:02pm

Italian police seize 1.8 bil euros from Japan's Nomura

Crime Apr. 17, 2013 - 06:25AM JST Italian police on Tuesday seized 1.8 billion euros ($2.3 billion) destined for Nomura and placed the Japanese bank’s former CEO Sadeq Sayeed under investigation in a fraud probe over a derivatives deal with troubled Italian lender Monte dei Paschi. A statement from the prosecutor’s office in Siena, the hometown of the Italian bank, said it had ordered the seizure of “a total of around 1.8 billion euros from Nomura International.” Prosecutors also seized a total of 14.4 million euros from three former managers of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena who are under investigation. Another senior Nomura executive, Raffaele Ricci, has also been placed under investigation. The statement said Sayeed and Ricci were suspected of “gravely obstructing” the activities of supervisory authorities and putting out “false statements”. Contacted by AFP, Nomura declined to comment. The world’s oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena has been at the centre of a massive fraud scandal since January which has uncovered several derivative deals put in place by its former management in order to disguise losses. The bank itself last month began a lawsuit in civil court against Nomura, Deutsche Bank and two of its former managers for their role in these operations.

Apr 17, 2013 - 12:03pm

Re: Wait for It

A.B. - your words struck me - it's just like a tsunami - the water (price) dropped precipitously and the pundits are standing on the shoreline looking at the pretty shells. The stackers are running full tilt to the high ground.

Big Dutch
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:06pm

Zero Doubt

I have zero doubt this decline was manufactured. I mean ZERO. I could list all the reasons for this belief, but you all know them, but I do want to say what bugs me the most and again most here are aware of it, but I just want to rant.

The Kennecott mine landslide. How the frick can 10% to 16% of USA's silver production be wiped out for probably two years and silver go down hard as hell? Worse, not a peep about that fact from mainstream financial media while every paper in Utah has daily stories on it. This is the kind of stuff that's going to make me drink myself to an early grave.

Dark Matter ancientmoney
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:10pm

@ zman, @ ancientmoney

@ zman, @ ancientmoney

Just read the article you linked and found the following rather disturbing:

Given that the Dow peaked at 42-oz’s of Gold in 1999, there’s still plenty of room for the Dow to regain lost ground against the yellow metal.

Looks like it is regaining lost ground not by crashing (the Dow), but instead by Gold crashing.

Apr 17, 2013 - 12:10pm

Sorry, but what happens

Sorry, but what happens Thursday evening?

Stack'em High
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:12pm
Big Dutch
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:13pm
Fat Willie
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:14pm


Great post and thank you for your continued leadership of this community. I am very anxious to see the documentary tomorrow evening, especially given the anticipation going all the way back to last summer. And I am very glad I misunderstood the teaser interview ( referenced in my incorrect post yesterday ).

I look forward to our ( and your ) collective vindication when this turns, as it surely will.

Bill of Rights
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:16pm

CFTC's Chilton says regulators looking at role of market

Hey Turd, glad all is well buddy, you know this is comical...I laugh with you my long time friend.

Prize Fighter
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:17pm
Missiondweller Dark Matter
Apr 17, 2013 - 12:24pm

@darkmatter Re: gold fair value

I put it closer to $1,800 based on the global money supply which has been a tight correlation.

I can't seem to paste the graph here but you can find it on Zerohedge from about three days ago.

Here it is:

Apr 17, 2013 - 12:26pm

Bart's Mom, Marge

has a better chance of getting anything done. How many years does it take for the CFTC to change a light bulb?


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