Tuesday Afternoon Update

Tue, Apr 16, 2013 - 3:59pm

A handful of items have collected during the day so I thought I'd begin a new thread.

First of all, the action today. Yes, we did see some short-covering and long-nibbling today but it looks like it was primarily CoT window dressing. Why do I say this? Look at the action since the Comex close. After a closing UPtick of about $5, there has been nothing but selling on the afterhours Globex. Clearly shorts that were taken off during regular hours are being put back on after hours. And this is all done after the weekly Commitment of Traders survey is taken, with the intent of skewing the data as much as possible.

The most important thing is what this chart might be telling us. IF today's action was primarily due to CoT-painting, then tonight, tomorrow and Thursday are likely to see a re-test of last night's lows, at a minimum. (This means I may get to eat my hat after all.) Pay attention to the charts I posted to this morning's thread and watch the action closely for clues as to whether we are seeing play out Scenario #1 or Scenario #2.

The open interest numbers from yesterday are in and they are inconclusive. For the day, with gold down $140, total open interest declined by 3,300 contracts to 426,722. What does this tell us? Well, to drop $140, there had to be incredible selling but, with such a slight OI change, the selling came almost equally from long liquidations and new shorting initiation. Same thing in silver. Down $3 on the day, total OI only fell by 900 contracts to 162,415.

So, again, what we saw yesterday was massive selling but it came in nearly equal parts of long liquidation at the breaks of support and brand new paper short creation. So the question is...which category was buying and which category was selling? In silver, I'd love to see that both categories of Specs were dumping longs and adding shorts while The Commercials both added longs and covered shorts. Is this what, in fact, happened? I guess we'll get some idea on Friday.

Moving on. Several of you have already heard this but I'm posting it here because everyone needs to listen to it. Recorded yesterday, it's a extremely informative discussion between SGT and Ranting Andy. The best use of 20 minutes of your valuable time today.

Tomorrow is Wednesday but the next day is Thursday. To prepare, please click this link and listen to this podcast. Ignore the Canadian banker chick that speaks first and fast forward to the 10:00 mark. I've got high hopes that you'll find it interesting.


Lastly, a very nice Turdite contacted me a few days ago. She's a talented artist and she inquired as to whether or not I'd like to swap some silver for some art. Since most of us feel that, eventually, we will convert some of our precious physical into other hard assets, I thought it might be fun to open her offer up to everyone. So, please check out her site...just don't crash her servers, OK?!? If you see something interesting, make her an offer. She'll even accept fiat if you prefer


Have a great evening/overnight. Be sure to keep a close eye on things. Your signal for short-term direction may be contained in tonight's action.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 16, 2013 - 4:05pm


too bad to those that don't like


Stack till it hurts

Apr 16, 2013 - 4:07pm

Second or Secondy Second

Never even got this close before! No time for a bikini pic!

Apr 16, 2013 - 4:10pm

numero 3

oh yeah baby

Apr 16, 2013 - 4:15pm


And...just in case you missed it...on the last thread!!!...


Bag Of Gold

Apr 16, 2013 - 4:15pm

Top five??

I even read the post... time for the audio portion, thanks TF.

Apr 16, 2013 - 4:17pm
Nick Elway
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:19pm

Is it just me?

Is it just me or does Happy Tuesday (followed by Bummer Wednesday and Thursday) seem to be a negative (for gold and silver bulls) ?

When the cartel starts manipulating upward will we have Bummer Tuesday followed by Happy Wednesday and Thursday?

Apr 16, 2013 - 4:22pm

cbc audio...

I gave it a listen and was not overly impressed. The interviewee seemed either nervous or just not too sure of himself. If I had been new to the manipulation concept, I'd walk away without any real understandings. I give the interview 2/5 stars. Trying not to be judgemental but I hope the show comes off a bit clearer. Time will tell.

John Galt
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:25pm

LCS Report from Toronto

After reading Silver66's report on the previous thread I thought I'd check in with my own favourite LCS to see what's available and, frankly, I'm a little shocked.

They are completely cleaned out of gold and silver MLs as well as Phil's and 1 oz RCMs. They tell me I can order gold but will have to wait until May for delivery.

That part doesn't surprise me given what happened in recent days.

The shocking part is on the silver. My LCS said they have been asked NOT to place any orders for silver MLs until the current backlog is addressed. In other words they won't even be allowed to place orders for the product.

I won't speculate on what that may or may not mean; I'm just reporting the facts as I heard them.

Now to post this comment and see if I crack top 10 (I was 4th when I started typing....Hey I placed 8th, the number the Chinese consider to be wealth and good fortune!)


Apr 16, 2013 - 4:25pm

Still Trying to Squeeze Something

out of those COT Reports, eh?

As I said earlier all I get is a headache, but then, being a weak minded wiper of other persons' bottoms, I only blame myself.

Seems to me that all info published for public consumption is suspect to say the least. Not even sure I would recognize the truth if it bit me on the butt by now. Admire your perseverance and that of all who do TA trying to find a logical course through this PTB manufactured fog.

Tarot cards suite me fine or maybe I Ching (chicken entrails are too messy and don't even think about goats), just kidding, as the American Indians say, me bad hunter (vegetarian)

Fun watching the players balancing physical availability with these new low prices; don't think it's over yet but don't think it will last much beyond this week, but as they say wthdik

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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