Tuesday Afternoon Update

291
Tue, Apr 16, 2013 - 3:59pm

A handful of items have collected during the day so I thought I'd begin a new thread.

First of all, the action today. Yes, we did see some short-covering and long-nibbling today but it looks like it was primarily CoT window dressing. Why do I say this? Look at the action since the Comex close. After a closing UPtick of about $5, there has been nothing but selling on the afterhours Globex. Clearly shorts that were taken off during regular hours are being put back on after hours. And this is all done after the weekly Commitment of Traders survey is taken, with the intent of skewing the data as much as possible.

The most important thing is what this chart might be telling us. IF today's action was primarily due to CoT-painting, then tonight, tomorrow and Thursday are likely to see a re-test of last night's lows, at a minimum. (This means I may get to eat my hat after all.) Pay attention to the charts I posted to this morning's thread and watch the action closely for clues as to whether we are seeing play out Scenario #1 or Scenario #2.

The open interest numbers from yesterday are in and they are inconclusive. For the day, with gold down $140, total open interest declined by 3,300 contracts to 426,722. What does this tell us? Well, to drop $140, there had to be incredible selling but, with such a slight OI change, the selling came almost equally from long liquidations and new shorting initiation. Same thing in silver. Down $3 on the day, total OI only fell by 900 contracts to 162,415.

So, again, what we saw yesterday was massive selling but it came in nearly equal parts of long liquidation at the breaks of support and brand new paper short creation. So the question is...which category was buying and which category was selling? In silver, I'd love to see that both categories of Specs were dumping longs and adding shorts while The Commercials both added longs and covered shorts. Is this what, in fact, happened? I guess we'll get some idea on Friday.

Moving on. Several of you have already heard this but I'm posting it here because everyone needs to listen to it. Recorded yesterday, it's a extremely informative discussion between SGT and Ranting Andy. The best use of 20 minutes of your valuable time today.

Tomorrow is Wednesday but the next day is Thursday. To prepare, please click this link and listen to this podcast. Ignore the Canadian banker chick that speaks first and fast forward to the 10:00 mark. I've got high hopes that you'll find it interesting.

https://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/podcasts/current_20130416_22647.mp3

Lastly, a very nice Turdite contacted me a few days ago. She's a talented artist and she inquired as to whether or not I'd like to swap some silver for some art. Since most of us feel that, eventually, we will convert some of our precious physical into other hard assets, I thought it might be fun to open her offer up to everyone. So, please check out her site...just don't crash her servers, OK?!? If you see something interesting, make her an offer. She'll even accept fiat if you preferwink

https://www.dottiekinn.com/

Have a great evening/overnight. Be sure to keep a close eye on things. Your signal for short-term direction may be contained in tonight's action.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  291 Comments

silver66
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:05pm

1st

too bad to those that don't likewink

Silver66

Stack till it hurts

AlexCojones
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:07pm

Second or Secondy Second

Never even got this close before! No time for a bikini pic!

Hillsie
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:10pm

numero 3

oh yeah baby

BagOfGold
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:15pm

4th?...

And...just in case you missed it...on the last thread!!!...

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/187922#comment-187922

Bag Of Gold

ltcolkilgore
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:15pm

Top five??

I even read the post... time for the audio portion, thanks TF.

Hillsie
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:17pm
Nick Elway
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:19pm

Is it just me?

Is it just me or does Happy Tuesday (followed by Bummer Wednesday and Thursday) seem to be a negative (for gold and silver bulls) ?

When the cartel starts manipulating upward will we have Bummer Tuesday followed by Happy Wednesday and Thursday?

billhilly
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:22pm

cbc audio...

I gave it a listen and was not overly impressed. The interviewee seemed either nervous or just not too sure of himself. If I had been new to the manipulation concept, I'd walk away without any real understandings. I give the interview 2/5 stars. Trying not to be judgemental but I hope the show comes off a bit clearer. Time will tell.

John Galt
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:25pm

LCS Report from Toronto

After reading Silver66's report on the previous thread I thought I'd check in with my own favourite LCS to see what's available and, frankly, I'm a little shocked.

They are completely cleaned out of gold and silver MLs as well as Phil's and 1 oz RCMs. They tell me I can order gold but will have to wait until May for delivery.

That part doesn't surprise me given what happened in recent days.

The shocking part is on the silver. My LCS said they have been asked NOT to place any orders for silver MLs until the current backlog is addressed. In other words they won't even be allowed to place orders for the product.

I won't speculate on what that may or may not mean; I'm just reporting the facts as I heard them.

Now to post this comment and see if I crack top 10 (I was 4th when I started typing....Hey I placed 8th, the number the Chinese consider to be wealth and good fortune!)

JG

question
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:25pm

Still Trying to Squeeze Something

out of those COT Reports, eh?

As I said earlier all I get is a headache, but then, being a weak minded wiper of other persons' bottoms, I only blame myself.

Seems to me that all info published for public consumption is suspect to say the least. Not even sure I would recognize the truth if it bit me on the butt by now. Admire your perseverance and that of all who do TA trying to find a logical course through this PTB manufactured fog.

Tarot cards suite me finewink or maybe I Ching (chicken entrails are too messy and don't even think about goats), just kidding, as the American Indians say, me bad hunter (vegetarian)

Fun watching the players balancing physical availability with these new low prices; don't think it's over yet but don't think it will last much beyond this week, but as they say wthdik

El Gordo
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:28pm

Just what kind of silver

does she have?

Bollocks
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:48pm

The Scary Number for Gold Investors: $1,200

Many gold producers will struggle to stay afloat if the gold price slumps below $1,200 analysts have told CNBC, potentially putting the gold mining industry at severe risk beyond 2017, according to Goldman Sachs predictions.

The much talked about decline in gold continued on Monday, with spot prices falling $1,400, compounding fears the 12-year run in the precious metal has finally come to an end.

Gold miners were especially hard hit, with a sell-off in the sector in Australia, China and the U.K.

But at what point does the demise of the gold price make gold miners uninvestable?

"As you get closer to the cash cost production for gold, which is around $1,200 an ounce, people get nervous," Jonathan Barratt, founder of Barratt's Bulletin told CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/id/100641133

-----------

Didn't Market Watch say that the fair value for gold was $800.00 earlier today?

This stuff is such a joke.

billhilly
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:54pm

SGT/Hoffman

Certainly a better interview. Good information/insight into the mining issues we face. Andy seems well informed, level headed (as always) and has a good grasp of fundamental supply/demand issues. Sean, bless his heart, is one generous, caring, and empassioned person working on our behalf...gotta love him. 4/5 stars.

Modern Alchemy
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:56pm

This move hurts, but think how much it hurts Cyprus...

A week ago when gold was about $1600 an ounce, Mario Draghi told Cyprus the bailout had them on the hook for 400 Million Euros of their gold which amounted to just over 10 tons of gold. That still hasn't been paid and now with the drop in price they would need to sell over 12 tons of their gold to equal the same amount...ouch! Cyprus only has 13.9 metric tons.

Hummm they better get their physical out on the market and into some hot hands before it drops any more! Soon it may take all their gold to fulfill the requirement.

Edit: Im sitting here wondering... If the required amount would have been set in oz instead of Euros, would the price have been pushed down before or after they paid? That being said, is there any chance this drop was also coordinated to get 20% more gold out of them?

ancientmoney
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:56pm
slappyjo
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:57pm

@question

Agreed. I used to look forward to the COTs. Two COT reports in the very recent past were exceedingly bullish by many, yet we suffered some of the most vicious beatings ever seen.

edit: btw, what is Sinclair looking at when he says the commercials are net long?

Admiral Ag Bar
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:59pm
slappyjo
Apr 16, 2013 - 4:59pm

Clearly you missed the disclaimer

CoT reports ARE NOT, CAN NOT and NEVER WILL BE timing tools. What they are is an indication of current position. They are only meaningful if the market in question tends to move in a certain direction whenever extremes are seen.

WestCoast
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:02pm

LCS North of the Border

Was thinking of going to my LCS yesterday with the huge price discount from the smash down. But before I went to the shop I wanted to check their website to see the current prices. The website hung for about 5 minutes and then finally loaded with a message saying 'Precious metal rates are not available online at the moment. Please check back at another time.' As Turd is all too familiar, the demand for just seeing the current prices was enough to crash their website for the entire day. When I went down to the shop, it was very busy. I asked the clerk if there was a lot of purchases today. His response was "too many!". I also wanted to find out if anyone had come in to sell any physical. He responded with a half chuckle "surprisingly there was", but there are many more buyers then sellers.

The point of my post is, don't let the media and other dis-information agents tell you anything contrary to the metals as the physical is literally flying off the shelves at these prices. The next few days and weeks will be some interesting developments. Thanks again Turd for creating this site and trying to inform as many as possible about the things to come. Stay strong everyone!

WestCoast

dolphindude
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:10pm

I shake my private parts at the cartel.

Including my gold member.

The dude.

Dark Matter
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:12pm

Barrick Gold

Well, wouldn't that be "funny" (sort of) if Barrick Gold went bankrupt? After their pals pulled of that selling spree?

John Galt
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:14pm

Over 90% of Mines to Go Under?

That was a very interesting interview. It has me thinking about how many mining companies are on the verge of bankruptcy because of these insanely low prices....well over 90%, assuming their estimates are accurate?

I have believed for a very long time that part of the end game is to bankrupt mining companies, thereby turning their shares into worthless paper, then have TPTB buy mine assets for pennies on the dollar before the big reset happens and PMs finally shoot higher.

Although earlier today Turd was considering the possibility of a V bottom, I am now wondering if today's rebound is little more than a head fake to either grind prices lower and/or lock down into a sideways consolidation for an extended period of maybe 2 more years? This will buy time to bankrupt the mines and choke off supply to the masses who are now ever more eager to buy PMs such as Eagles etc.

Maybe I am off base, but consider what this scenario would mean for the rest of us. It would provide cheap prices to buy physical at, but if there's none to be had the bargain prices are worthless. Conversely those forced to sell (or who simply give up and decide to sell and cut their losses now) will be cashing out at a severe discount, which will thereby funnel free physical up to TPTB at the top of the pyramid.

It seems to me that the big casino is starting to burn down, folks, and the doors are being locked to trap as many inside as possible. Although it will be a while before the casino is reduced to a smouldering heap of ashes (the pensions and other paper assets still have to be fully herded into the building as added fuel) there are already very few exits left and what few are left are being blocked.

The casino will be in full lockdown before those trapped inside will even see the flames.

But, hey, Lindsay Lohan will guest star on Charlie Sheen's show this Thursday. 

We still have our 'Bread and Circuses'.

ltcolkilgore
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:19pm

Extremely amateur TA...

For the record, I know squat about TA, charts... they are interesting but without the knowledge to back up what I am seeing I have no idea if this means anything... I only pursued this because I had not seen a long term chart in a while, this is a 5yr chart from Kitco, 4/17/08 through 4/17/13

2 glaring things that I see from my first crude attempt: 2011 was completely out of the channel I drew - price came back into the channel briefly in 2012 and then again earlier this year and now has obviously completely blown through this channel

What does all this mean? Probably not much but this last waterfall was real UGLY....

No matter, I will continue to stack silver as I have done, no point in turning back now...

dgstage
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:22pm
ArtimusG WestCoast
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:26pm

LCS Ft. Myers, FL

Stopped into my favorite store today at 12:30 pm. He was completely out of all PMs. He told me that until someone came in to sell something that he was back to being a numismatic dealer 'til then. No rounds, 90%, bars, or gold. Two weeks ago I got $100.00 face for $2150.00 and he was overloaded with 90%. Today it was all sold by 10:30 am.

WhatsItAllAboutAlphi
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:28pm

Bad day for PM's is Friday

That's why the correct spelling should be Fryday.

Admiral Ag Bar
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:29pm

with the metals beat down this far...

I think the best thing we can hope for is that the beat downs continue for just a bit longer so that all the phyzz gets stacked away into strong hands (us little guys and the CBs). Sorry, to-big-to-jail banksters... your bullshit 100-to-1 fractional reserve casino is over! One can only hope.

slappyjo TF
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:33pm

@Turd - "Clearly you missed..."

Yes, present company excluded. I was referring to many other folks on the net interpreting the COT reports. Most were quite bullish, without qualification.

gw
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:34pm

What a claim to make that

What a claim to make that >90% miners will be bankrupt in 6-12 mths. Complete nonsense. I just don't understand you guys. Are you not in this to make money like everyone else? If silver were 50 or 100 by year end and you bought a crapload at say 25. Don't tell me, you wouldn't take the 200-400% profit. You guys make yourselves out to be higher then everyone else. All governments are corrupt if that is what you want to call it. That is simply how the system works, been that way for centuries, nothing different today. Living like this is extremely unhealthy, waiting for some kind of end game to happen. When you see a trade, you make it. Doesn't matter the price or what it is. It is all the same. I am just so fascinated at all the analysis on so-called inventory shortages, supply and demand, OI. No one knows any actual numbers. Zerohedge is extremely bad for one's health. They can take any set of numbers and make a chart out of it. No different than what cnbc or the government does every month, just the opposite end of the spectrum. It is all noise.

lamare
Apr 16, 2013 - 5:35pm

Price and Availability – Revisited

On the previous thread, dgstage posted a very intrigueing article, in which it is claimed that the COT numbers have been changed:

https://blog.milesfranklin.com/price-and-availability-revisited

Price and Availability – Revisited

Author : Bill Holter Published: April 16th, 2013
It looks like the CME has “changed” their open interest numbers since posted this morning. I saw the numbers with my own eyes this morning which showed an open interest gain of over 10,000 contracts for gold and over 3,500 for silver. If the “new numbers” are correct, there is still more open interest in gold than there was Thursday’s close and only a drop of 2,000 in silver. Still not anywhere near the amounts one would think that was necessary to create the price drops we’ve seen. I know that these numbers were displayed earlier because I have since read commentary similar to mine that had the same figures… I do believe my lying eyes and am not senile yet. I know what I saw and even checked the date to make sure that they were yesterday’s numbers. Who knows, maybe the real numbers were too unbelievable and even a shlep like me saw what happened so they changed them… crazy world we live in!
If this is correct, then we are in for scenario #1... So, this is a MUST READ, Imho. Thanks for posting, dgstage!
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