From Here, Where?

617
Sat, Apr 13, 2013 - 3:59pm

I've been thinking since yesterday about what I should write today. My first idea was to overwhelm you with information. Charts, data, links...the usual stuff, only more so. Then it dawned on me...that's probably not what you want to hear right now.

Besides there are all kinds of other websites out there where you can get that stuff. And today, I'm not too concerned about technicals. You see, my obligation is to you and to the other 28,939 unique IPs that hit this site yesterday. What do you need to hear? Or, put this way, if I was in your shoes, what would I want to hear from Turd this weekend?

Therefore I've decided, at least for today, to dispense with the charts and the links. I'm not going to mention the info that Andy shared on KWN or the fact that the GLD incredibly shed another 22.86 metric tonnes of "inventory" yesterday. (That's another 1,840 bars or 10 of my pallets, by the way.) Nope, none of that. If I were you, I'd want to be reassured that this wasn't all just a big crock of shit. All this gold stuff. All of the new reserve currency stuff. All of the Cartel manipulation stuff. All of it. I'd want to know that I hadn't been snookered and taken advantage of. I'd want to know that all of these "internet people" that I follow aren't simply making stuff up as they go along. And I'd want to know that they're sincere and that they're just as frustrated as I am.

So, I guess I'll start with myself. I think everyone knows this but I'll state it again: I'm just a nobody. I live in the American Midwest and my entire life has been spent doing pretty-much normal stuff. About five years ago, I quit the "corporate ladder" and pursued a path of independence. In 2009, I discovered ZeroHedge and the rest, as they say, is history. I now find myself in the middle of a global struggle against elements of the established central and bullion banking order. Suffice it to say: It's a surreal existence and not one that I could ever have envisioned. But I'm here now and waist-deep in the fight. Does this make me infallible or all-knowledgeable? Of course not. But I do my best to share with you, my dear reader, as much information and insight as I can.

The past eight months have been the most challenging. Not only have I lost all remaining faith in the idea that Americans live in a self-governing, representative republic, I've also been privileged(?) to witness first-hand some of the true depth of the corruption. Concurrently, I allowed myself to be totally caught off-guard by the ferocity of the attack on the precious metals after the announcement of QE∞. At this critical time, I should have anticipated that all necessary measures would be taken to discourage the ownership of any form of money other than fiat currency. In failing to recognize this contingency, I failed you, my dear reader. Though I am 100% confident in the accuracy of my predictions of "the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment", I failed to recognize that this current beatdown was both predictable and inevitable. I hope we've both learned something and that we both are able to keep from making the same mistake in the future.

But mistakes will still be made and the point of this post is to assure you that I am on your side and doing everything in my power to help you prepare for what is inevitably coming. I do so with all sincerity of purpose and the cloak of this responsibility wears heavily upon my soldiers every day. Just ask MrsF or the LTs. They'll tell you how they often catch me staring blankly off into the distance, seemingly detached from the moment. "What are you thinking about", they'll ask. "Oh, dear, where do I begin...". But that's OK; I'm not looking for sympathy. I just want you to know that I, and most everyone else I've had the privilege to meet within the metals "community", truly believe in the cause and we are doing our best to help as many as possible.

I've often said that the greatest thing about "being Turd" is the access this grants me and the friendships and contacts that I've been able to make, so, please indulge me this. As stated above, this post is not about me. It's about what I assume must be on your mind this weekend. Namely, is this real and are the people with these websites trustworthy? For what it's worth, here's some of what I know (with apologies to anyone I mistakenly leave out):

  • Jim Sinclair (Santa): JSMineset was the first metals website I ever visited. That I've actually gotten to know Jim a little bit is a great honor. I've known a couple of NYSE-listed CEOs is in my life and Jim is no different. He smart and wise. Measured in his words but with a vision. Under no circumstances does he need to publish JSM but he does. Why? Because he cares. Period. He firmly believes that he can clearly see what is coming and he's trying to use his platform to warn as many as possible. You can trust and believe in him because I do.
  • Andrew Maguire: Not sure where to start and I'll try to keep this brief. Andy is a true gentleman and staunch ally of all of us. Sort of like Jim Sinclair, he doesn't need any of this but he's sick of the injustice and the inequity created by the bullion banks...and he's fighting back. Even though we've never met, I've come to trust him implicitly.
  • Ned Naylor-Leyland: I don't think you could find a nicer guy on the face of the planet. Again, just like so many of us, Ned's sort of had this stuff thrust upon him. But he's an eloquent spokesman for our cause and I've come to value him as a friend.
  • Jim Willie: You may think that Jim has some crazy theories. I know I do. But please do not doubt his intellect, his intuition or his sincerity. The guy is a true visionary and I have no doubt that, one day soon, he will be vindicated and treated as such.
  • Bill Murphy and Chris Powell: The veteran soldiers of the movement. Though Bill might seem a bit of a loose cannon from time to time, he's a good man and tireless campaigner against The Cartels. Chris is a solid, upright and honest man whose commitment and integrity benefits all of us.
  • Ted Butler, Ranting Andy, Mike Krieger, Jim Quinn, Kerry Lutz, Dave Janda, David Morgan, Alasdair Macleod, Jeff Nielson, Detlev Schilchter, John Williams: All of these guys either write newsletters or offer paid subscription analysis and I have either met them in person or made their acquaintance via Skype. All of them provide a valuable resource and all of them are doing everything they can to help the cause. I feel I can personally vouch for them and I strongly recommend that you trust them, too.
  • There are many others but, for the sake of your time, I'll stop here.

I could go on but I don't want to turn this into some kind of LoveFest. The point of this is what I stated above. Though you should always question the things you read, do your own research and due diligence, I wanted to pass along what I know to reassure you about the gold community and those involved within it. I hope I've done just that.

Please utilize the rest of this weekend to get some much-needed rest and relaxation. To me, it's quite clear that we have entered the final chapter of bullion bank hegemony and the days ahead are only going to get more volatile. You're going to need information and wisdom to see your way through it so I hope that this post has been a valuable use of your time.

See you Monday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  617 Comments

Texas Sandman
Apr 13, 2013 - 6:30pm

@karankawa

I treat that puke feeling as a buy signal.

I had it on Friday.

TD
Apr 13, 2013 - 6:35pm

On being First

I thought I might share a couple thoughts on being First...

First, (pun intended), don't knock it until you try it... the thrill is unbelievable, beyond words. The only thing I've found of equal pleasure is getting more than ten hat tips. Yes, I live a humble life with little thrills. I need to work on that.

Second, consider these early responses of "Furst", "Furd", and "Well, I thought I was first, bummer" as great exercise for your scroll finger in getting past the troll posts without reading them, and thus eliminating the desire to respond.

Finally, rather than pointing out what is wrong with this site, just be thankful for Turd, his efforts, and in making this platform available to all the wonderful folks who post here. Not that everyone who posts here are wonderful mind you... but a heck of a lot of them are. You know who you are.

Juggernaut Nihilism
Apr 13, 2013 - 6:46pm

Confirmation Bias

One thing communities like this really have to guard against is confirmation bias. It becomes very easy to see every piece of supportive information as confirming your preconceptions, and to discard everything else as irrelevant, corrupt, etc. It actually happens here all the time. The end result is getting to that place where you cannot conceive of the possibility that you might be wrong. This is Black Swan territory since Black Swans, by definition, always come from your blind spot.

For the stackers out there, at least the young ones, there is really no danger. No matter what happens with metals for the foreseeable future, there will be another run someday... time is on your side. For people who were so sure of their thesis that they took on leverage...

You always have to consider the possibility that things might not turn out the way we think they should. Maybe they manage to extend the ponzi for another 100 years, who knows? Makes no sense, but who knows?

I remain convinced that the bottom will be in only when sites like this consist of only half a dozen hardcore followers who mostly just hang around for the social interaction, and they mostly just post about how crazy it was back when the site used to get 20k unique visits a day. When nobody cares anymore, even most of the people who claimed to bleed shiny yellow, that's when the bottom will be in. But that's OK. Precious metals people, by definition, are playing the long game.

القراع عصفور
Apr 13, 2013 - 6:51pm

more LCS reporting

my brother in Milwaukee has had the same experience (frustrating) as me, trying to buy silver today anywhere near spot. he spoke with one particular owner that was out of most things, and unable to restock because the wholesalers are not selling even close to spot silver! he says he will probably have to close his store by Monday! my brother was able to buy his last few ASE's at exactly 29, and one silver prospector round in the low 27's - premiums on gold are not as bad, but still bad enough. my bro bought a 1/10 AGE for 170. after my brother bought, all he had left for silver were generic bars and rounds, and nothing over 10 oz. their seems to be a shortage developing around me. btw - this same dealer said yesterday was one of his busiest days ever! busiest day in many years he said, going back to 2008.

Trader Dan is openly admitting the manipulation now. this is refreshing. https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

i fear that this is it. if you don't have any physical metal by now, you better hurry. i plan on cashing out my IRA next week. i just want to spend it while it has any value at all. and that my friends is the hyperinflationary mindset that the FED fears most. 

dgstage
Apr 13, 2013 - 6:52pm

Trolls

Seems to me more trolls come out on price decline. Are is it just me seeing that?


Apr 13, 2013 - 6:53pm

feet firmly planted in mid-air

My wife and I alerted my mother in law today and she is a buyer of gold now. We are planning to buy more silver as well. So what if AG is pushed down to 23... I suspect that either none will be available or that the premiums on 100 oz bars will jump to $3-4 per ounce. Today they are .69 USD over spot. I am a buyer.

Seriously, you bears out there who claim to be stackers, you who have graced the blog the past two days saying "I told you so." (There are only a few that I respect, one who shares my title) I grant that you were right about the power of the EE to drive the price down, but if the paper prices falls lower than 23, will any physical at all be available at that price?

What is the price of silver? It is becoming difficult to nail down, isn't it.

Social constructionism! --Bernanke and all his (so-called) educated buddies ascribe to this philosophy, but their feet are planted firmly in mid air. Will gravity prevail? ... or will they continue to alter the laws of physics. The COMEX is their mechanism for altering laws of economics... I have more to say on this, but it can wait until a dull day.

Central banks are buyers of AG. Bernake calls it a "barbarous relic." What a psychopathic liar!--a tool of the backroom-cigar-smoking-elites that are calling the shots.

signing out for a day or so...

J

Xavier Cromartie
Apr 13, 2013 - 6:57pm

For those who do want charts

For those who do want charts: "Gold's parabolic move began at 1477. What has happened is that gold has made a 100% Fibonacci retracement of the parabolic move." "Eagle-eyed technicians will notice that there is actually a very slight downward tilt in the silver channel. Channel support is currently at 25.90" Gold and silver may be at a long-term bottom RIGHT NOW

Zoltan
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:02pm

Song For the Turd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sL2A0zLxFxA

Lyrics

Bruce Springsteen
Rocky Ground lyrics

Send "Rocky Ground" Ringtone to your Cell (I'm a soldier! )
(I'm a soldier! )
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground

Rise up shepherd, rise up
Your flock has roamed far from the hills
The stars have faded, the sky is still
The angels are shouting "Glory Hallelujah"

We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground

Forty days and nights of rain have washed this land
Jesus said the money changers in this temple will not stand
Find your flock, get them to higher ground
Flood waters rising and we're Caanan bound

We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
(I'm a soldier! )

Tend to your flock or they will stray
We'll be called for our service come Judgment Day
Before we cross that river wide
Blood on our hands will come back on us twice

(I'm a soldier! )

Rise up shepherd, rise up
Your flock has roamed far from the hills
Stars have faded, the sky is still
Sun's in the heavens and a new day's rising

You use your muscle and your mind and you pray your best
That your best is good enough, the Lord will do the rest
You raise your children and you teach 'them to walk straight and sure
You pray that hard times, hard times, come no more
You try to sleep, you toss and turn, the bottom's dropping out
Where you once had faith now there's only doubt
You pray for guidance, only silence now meets your prayers
The morning breaks, you awake but no one's there

We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
There's a new day coming
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
(I'm a soldier! )
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
There's a new day coming
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
(I'm a soldier! )
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
There's a new day coming
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
(I'm a soldier! )
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
There's a new day coming
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground

We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground
We've been traveling over rocky ground, rocky ground Apologies to the video haters. Please don't feed the trolls. Z
cc
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:14pm

anybody buys from kitco?

It seems their prices are cheaper than apmex. any drawback here?

tpbeta
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:16pm

@Chevy Thunder

There's no sense bitching about goldbug philosophy simply because the current outcome is not to your liking. And if anyone made financial decisions because Turd or anyone else told them to load up at $35 last fall then that's ultimately their own responsibility. TF has admitted he got it completely wrong. It happens.

The question is what is to be learned from the debacle. And the lesson for today is that the manipulators are more powerful than the forces which folks round here like to call the fundamentals. That alone suggests to me that we are not just dealing with JP Morgan's commodity desk.

opticsguy
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:18pm

There's always AGQ and UGL ITM calls

if you really want to leverage up.

I'm going to post leafy vegetable pron when I get may camera hooked up.

Mickey
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:20pm

Would you lend Money to a company

Running a 1.4 trillion cash flow deficit, with revenues of about 2.5 trillion, with short term debt of 17 trillion and 88 trillion of unfunded liabilities, where the trend is negative?

the derivative time bomb may just be a very important side issue.

what can go wrong?

Silver_investor
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:29pm

@Mickey

Nope. That's why the Fed is buying most new issuances.

David Stockman was on Fox Business news recently with Neil Cavuto. Stockman was the Director of the Office of Management and Budget during the Reagan administration, and he was warning Reagan back then about our insolvency. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=uF9UJh8bU70

cliff 567 Xavier Cromartie
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:33pm

Another FED intrusion

That was a great post Turd, I felt you.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Amish prosecuted because scissors 'crossed state lines'


Amish prosecuted because scissors 'crossed state lines' Posted By: Tholidor [Send E-Mail]
Date: Saturday, 13-Apr-2013 12:31:59

I have to admit that, other than noticing some of the headlines in the mainstream media, I haven't given much thought to this case. As this author points out, the Amish beard-cutting case happened a long way from where I live and, being a seemingly internal squabble within the Amish community, didn't seem to affect me or my family. 
But in retrospect the flimsy justification used by the government to insert itself into this matter is truly chilling. Despite the headline, it was actually a Wahl hair clipper that was used in the attacks. The governments justification? Although purchased locally (at Walmart), the offending clipper was manufactured in another state and crossed state lines before the eventual sale. 
Think about it! Virtually anything that we buy was made somewhere else before being delivered to whichever local outlet made it available for sale. Therefore almost every item which we buy, if used in a manner that is deemed illegal, is an open invitation for the federal government to insinuate itself into the proceedings. Combine that with the fact that the feds see almost anything which might be considered offensive to someone (other than a white male of course) as a hate crime and we have a recipe for disaster. 
If you hold up a sign critical of a political point of view for example, and someone seeing the sign feels offended by it, you can be federally charged with a "hate crime" because that Magic Marker you used to make the sign as well as the cardboard upon which you have written were both made in another state. 
In my opinion, it is far past time to reign in the runaway federal government and it's intrusion into every facit of our daily lives. To allow our "public servents" to continue down this path is to invite tyranny, like the proverbial vampire, into our homes. The time to draw that line in the sand is now - even though it may very well be too late! 
--- snip --- 
What does the federal hate crimes law inspired by the murders of Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. have to do with an internal dispute among the Amish in which the beards of men and the hair of women were forcibly sheared? 
--- snip --- 
U.S. Attorney Steven M. Dettelbach, of the Northern District of Ohio, argued in the indictment that the “Wahl battery-operated hair clippers” used in the assaults “were purchased at Walmart and had travelled in and affected interstate commerce in that they were manufactured in Dover, Delaware.” 
--- snip --- 
Read the entire article at: 
https://www.wnd.com/2013/04/amish-prosecuted-because-scissors-crossed-state-lines/
https://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=273969
Posted by John MacHaffie at 6:27 PM
¤
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:51pm

Possum Kingdom

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Toadies ~ Possum Kingdom

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

possum-babies_49102.jpg

Texas Sandman
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:56pm

National debt versus the derivative 800# gorilla

The reason for the 2008 collapse wasn't the national debt. It was the quadrillion dollar derivatives mess.

While the fed may be buying treasuries because nobody else wants them & the government needs funding, it pushes interest rates down across the spectrum. That makes all those doofus-headed derivative bets look better than they otherwise would, particularly ones based on interest rates. A derivatives blow-up in France, Italy, or a wave of CDSs based on Cyprus would be transmitted to the US and everywhere else in a heartbeat. Golden Jackass says europe is likely the nexus of the next collapse. I think he's right.

The national debt has the potential to down the US. The derivatives mess has the potential to collapse the world (all at once). And it's a bigger mess than in 2008, not smaller.

billhilly
Apr 13, 2013 - 7:58pm

To Change the World....

Well written Turd. Thank you again for all you do ! Waxing philosophically, but based in reality, I would offer the following; we each have the chance, every moment of every day, to change the world...Really and Truly. For you see, "the" world, "our" world, is not OUT there somewhere (China, America, Wall Street, Comex, etc...), it is present in the here and now. My world, at this very moment is here in my cabin, with my dogs, working on this computer/comment, with YOU all as my focus. It is within this realm, this "reach", so to speak, that my "world" currently exists. Recognizing this fact, this limitation, these boundries, I can now more easily grasp the concept that what I think and say and do have ACTUAL consequence, actual effect. I can say/write something positive to you, with the intention of creating a positive effect, and maybe, just maybe, its effect will be to cause an equal or greater positive effect. In this (small) way I can actually change "the" world. A better example is in our daily activities. Each day we go out into our world. Within each moment, our world exists then and there, and we each have the opportunity to affect some change. Through the smallest gesture, a smile perhaps, or a kind word, the opening of a door for someone, or the dropping of a coin in a beggars cup, we can, and do, alter that environment....hopefully in the manner we intend. It is the INTENTION though that is most important. If our intention is to do good, and show kindness, compassion, respect and/or generosity, then the chances of creating a similar response greatly increases. This then can have dramatic, near and far reaching results. Similarly, a negative, self focused, dishonest thought/word/deed can cause similar ripples throughout our, and others', worlds which then take/make their own effects. Geez, I'm beginning to feel a bit preachy here, not my intention, so I guess I'll wind down by saying that right here, right now, in our "TURD World Country", and in our own little "worlds", amidst the seemingly ever-present doom and gloom, we each CAN be the change we desire, we CAN create an environment of trust and comfort and happiness, and we CAN share our true selves with each other having the intention for mutual benefit. This is what TF does above, and what he does each day. Let us do no less. Peace

¤
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:02pm

For lovers of Clapton ~ Unplugged

Eric Clapton - MTV Unplugged FULL concert - HQ
Bozzz
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:04pm

Thanks TF!

Thanks TF!

Chibster
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:11pm

Arizona and Cyprus

Arizona just made physical Silver and Gold LEGAL TENDER.

Cyprus dumped 10 tons of physical gold into the market in trade for fiat debt notes printed out of thin air (for the Cyprus private bank bailout). It's the central banks that are buying physical bullion at depressed prices.

Illinois senate bill to track bullion ownership and sales!

Anyway, I went to the local coin shop today and bought a few physical gold and silver coins during this fantastic dip. 8% over for gold spot bullion (1/4oz AGE). Not much left. All calls today were to purchase, not sell. Zero ASE's available! How refreshing....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WT3i2Jh0Fs&feature=player_embedded

R man J
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:22pm

How much $$$ Flowed into the treasury this weekend?

I suppose that many others are like me and just took a large hit to their checking account. I e-filed filed in February but I owed, so I scheduled the auto withdrawal for Monday the 15th. I would imagine that the US Treasury is taking in a $Trillion or so this weekend.

JustMy02
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:24pm

Thanks Turd

First of all Turd... I would like to thank you for what you have done. You have awakened many, a great many as to the value of real money. Failure to foresee a manipulative event is NOT a failure, but a sign of humanism. It happens!! Shit happens. Your words have prepared the many for the collapse. What I am to tell everyone is... you are half-way there!!!

No one can survive alone. This will not be a “frontier” experience. I am not saying zombies are coming, but... it is time to understand community and teamwork. No one can do everything, nor understand all aspects of everything. If you work a farm, there is no way you can defend a farm. Can't do two things and be two people at once. For those that fail to understand that, contact your looney uncle “the vet”. Time to make contact with your neighbors.

I will state this one time only...

It is time to reach out to one of the those 10+ million combat vets that were discharged in the last 12 years. You may have made your preps in gold and silver, farm land, animals whatever. I bet many of those vets made their preps elsewhere – why else are we all termed “terrorists”? They know things you don't? Just maybe?

I will tell each and every one of you – Turd has done much to awaken all of you (me too). His specialty is and has been trading. I guarantee he does dispute this. Mine is and has been for all my life military operations and human nature. I will tell all of the same thing...

→ Kill the ego, band together and seek the skill you don't have. (Find the one that has it)

What does that mean? Simple – No one knows everything. You don't know everything. You can't do everything. Period!

Whatever you have I can take! I know it, simple as that . I AM NOT stating I am a criminal!!! I am stating most are unprepared to defend your possessions. Simple statement. Not the mine is bigger than yours, simply; you can't do two things at once. With patience, it's mine! Never be the lamb, Always the Lion!

The learning curve in combat is huge! Something DHS is just figuring out. Most will die before they learn that. The tactics takes a lifetime, something the DHS recruits will never learn. I'm sure they they were taught "might makes right". Better read Sun Tzu, yo!

But I guarantee everyone that feels they are fully prepared now feels worse. Sorry.

But I do have a solution.

Reach out to that brother, cousin, uncle, whomever (old friend?). The one you thought may be out there (mentally). Maybe they actually understand something you are just beginning to. They may actually know many things you don't. Is it worth feeding someone that actually knows what the “switch” is? Those that have been in combat know what I mean. I suggest most of you find a little extra food, less greed, more humanism. Just a suggestion.

Gold and silver will help the financial bliss – it won't at this juncture cure the woes.

If they pull the plug on the banking system tomorrow, are your ready?

We are that close IMHO.

Again, Thank you Turd for all you have done!

As Always;

Just My 2 Cents

ps - if anyone takes offense to the tone, I apologize. Just never felt that dying was politically correct.

¤
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:30pm

Atlanta Fed's Lockhart ~ Denial and Fed MOPE

Lockhart Calls Unfounded the View That Fed Monetizes U.S. Debt

By Steve Matthews - Apr 13, 2013 4:30 PM ET

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart rebutted critics of the central bank who say its policies are monetizing the national debt or encouraging more deficit spending.

“I object to the view that the Fed is monetizing the debt,” Lockhart said today as part of a panel discussion at the University of Iowa in Iowa City.

Fed officials led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have said repeatedly they would not try to monetize debts by increasing money and stimulating inflation. Bernanke has urged Congress and President Barack Obama to put fiscal policy on a sustainable path.

The “coincidence” of accommodative monetary policy and increases in the government’s debt “doesn’t mean they are connected,”  Lockhart said at a University of Iowa School of Law conference entitled “Fiscal Reform, Monetization or Default: How Will the United State Solve the Problem of its National Debt?”

“Fiscal reform is the only real option in the title of this conference,” Lockhart said.

The administration forecasts that the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 will be $744 billion, or 4.4 percent of the economy. The Office of Management and Budget estimates that the shortfall this year will be $973 billion, or 6 percent of the economy.

Government Financing

Lockhart said it’s not true that the Fed is holding interest rates down to reduce the government’s financing costs and encourage deficit spending.

“The accusation of intentional suppression of government financing costs is unfounded,” he said. “The Fed has to try to ease financial conditions” and keep interest rates low “until the economy improves.”

Growth likely slowed in the current quarter to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent from an estimated 3 percent in the first quarter, according to the median forecast among 69 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from April 5 to April 9. Growth for the year is expected to be about 2 percent, the survey showed.

“I have been supportive of accommodative policies and I continue to do so,” he said.

The Atlanta Fed president, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, has supported the central bank’s monthly purchases of $85 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as a means to try to bring down 7.6 percent unemployment. Fed officials are considering how quickly to slow purchases amid mixed signs for the labor market, with 88,000 jobs added in March in the smallest gain in nine months.

Cockeyed Policy

Lockhart responded on the panel to criticism from Carnegie Mellon University professor Allan Meltzer, an economist and author of a history of the Fed, who called the Fed’s current stance “a cockeyed policy” and said asset purchases were having “very little effect” on the economy while potentially stoking asset price bubbles and inflation.

While the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet creates "some risk” of rising inflation expectations, “that chemistry is not at work today and it will take substantial credit growth to materialize,” Lockhart said.

The Fed “has a variety of tools to counter such pressures,” Lockhart said, mentioning the central bank’s ability to pay interest on excess bank reserves. That power“gives us greater control over monetary policy than before that tool existed,” he said.

Tapering Purchases

Minutes of the March 19-20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released April 10 show that a number of Fed officials said the central bank should begin tapering its bond buying program later this year and stop it by year end.

Bernanke said last month the central bank would alter monthly buying in response to gains in the job market, underscoring a need for flexibility. He said further gains would be needed to be sure “this is not a temporary improvement.”

A former Georgetown University professor, Lockhart has led the Atlanta Fed since 2007. The Atlanta Fed district includes Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and portions of Louisiana,Mississippi, and Tennessee.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-13/lockhart-calls-unfounded-the-view-that-fed-monetizes-u-s-debt.html

maravich44 ¤
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:39pm
lakedweller2
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:39pm

The X Factor

Thanks Turd. I think your perception of what words would be helpful was correct. I think why it is so difficult to predict whether the markets will follow the technicals and/or the fundamentals, is that the opposition is missing the X Factor.

Just as Turd's comments took into consideration that his readers are human with human feelings, there is an apparent genetic failure in the opposition which does not include human thinking, feeling, emotion, or situation as variables in the computation of market theory. Instead the opposition lacks empathy, ethically thinking, and emotional sensitivity to the plight of the common man or the necessity to recognize that ones current situation may not be earned nor is there an automatic right to entitlement. They deal in total materialism and view the transfer of wealth as a game, a right, an entitlement and that as long as they are part of those that are beneficiaries of the plunder, then the plight of their fellow man has little meaning.

This makes any market theory of those that feel they have a duty to consider their fellow man within the scope of that theory, results carrying the X Factor as a limitation in the "short term" success of their projections. We can only hope that outright theft, corruption, and destruction is not a winning theory. 

On the other hand, how many nondemocratic countries are there and how long have they been successful in maintaining power. That's a bummer.

dgstage
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:41pm

GC

I like your thoughts. You sound relaxed.

SRSrocco
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:41pm

LARGEST COPPER MINE IN WORLD SHUT DOWN

RIO TINTO'S MASSIVE KENNECOTT COPPER MINE SHUT DOWN DUE TO MASSIVE LANDSLIDE

This mine is only a few hours away from where I live. I have been watching the news and reading articles about when they will resume operations. Folks, they are not talking about days or weeks. It looks like it could be months or years. There is about a half a billion tonnes of dirt and ore now at the bottom of the pit.

This is a big hit to United States copper production. Kennecott has been the number one producer of copper in the country.

cpnscarlet
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:43pm

Remembering Chilton

Since he's a focus -

The first thing that turned me off to the idea that he was one of the "good guys" was a phone call from him after an angry email. His biggest complaint to me "You have no idea what a tough job I have!" Even it was true, it was a damn unprofessional thing to say...and his voice did not overflow with sincerity. We all have "tough jobs", especially retail investors in these markets.

Second thing - his bad faggot haircut!

opticsguy
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:45pm

rule of law

I got a letter in the mail with a picture of the back of my 4Runner with a bill for $75, claiming I ran a read light. I had the option of disputing the charge, and I said I would like to see a picture of my truck AND the light being red at the same time, thank you. I got a letter back saying that I had turned right without stopping and cough up $75 (split between Northrup Grumman and the city of Dallas). The only problem is, I have never turned right at that intersection, since my office is on the other side. Better yet, a week after I got my nastygram I watched the camera go apeshit and take a bunch of pictures while the light was STILL GREEN! I'm going to try to get a video of that. Either way, there are laws for the rich, powerful, and corporations, and there are laws for the rest of use. Forging a $20 check will put you in jail for 20 years, but Jamie Dimon can forge documents and foreclose on houses his bank doesn't even have a lien against and nobody pays.

cpnscarlet
Apr 13, 2013 - 8:46pm

@SRS

Holy S**T!!!

Is anyone dead/missing??? That is huge beyond words!!!

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