From Here, Where?

Sat, Apr 13, 2013 - 3:59pm

I've been thinking since yesterday about what I should write today. My first idea was to overwhelm you with information. Charts, data, links...the usual stuff, only more so. Then it dawned on me...that's probably not what you want to hear right now.

Besides there are all kinds of other websites out there where you can get that stuff. And today, I'm not too concerned about technicals. You see, my obligation is to you and to the other 28,939 unique IPs that hit this site yesterday. What do you need to hear? Or, put this way, if I was in your shoes, what would I want to hear from Turd this weekend?

Therefore I've decided, at least for today, to dispense with the charts and the links. I'm not going to mention the info that Andy shared on KWN or the fact that the GLD incredibly shed another 22.86 metric tonnes of "inventory" yesterday. (That's another 1,840 bars or 10 of my pallets, by the way.) Nope, none of that. If I were you, I'd want to be reassured that this wasn't all just a big crock of shit. All this gold stuff. All of the new reserve currency stuff. All of the Cartel manipulation stuff. All of it. I'd want to know that I hadn't been snookered and taken advantage of. I'd want to know that all of these "internet people" that I follow aren't simply making stuff up as they go along. And I'd want to know that they're sincere and that they're just as frustrated as I am.

So, I guess I'll start with myself. I think everyone knows this but I'll state it again: I'm just a nobody. I live in the American Midwest and my entire life has been spent doing pretty-much normal stuff. About five years ago, I quit the "corporate ladder" and pursued a path of independence. In 2009, I discovered ZeroHedge and the rest, as they say, is history. I now find myself in the middle of a global struggle against elements of the established central and bullion banking order. Suffice it to say: It's a surreal existence and not one that I could ever have envisioned. But I'm here now and waist-deep in the fight. Does this make me infallible or all-knowledgeable? Of course not. But I do my best to share with you, my dear reader, as much information and insight as I can.

The past eight months have been the most challenging. Not only have I lost all remaining faith in the idea that Americans live in a self-governing, representative republic, I've also been privileged(?) to witness first-hand some of the true depth of the corruption. Concurrently, I allowed myself to be totally caught off-guard by the ferocity of the attack on the precious metals after the announcement of QE∞. At this critical time, I should have anticipated that all necessary measures would be taken to discourage the ownership of any form of money other than fiat currency. In failing to recognize this contingency, I failed you, my dear reader. Though I am 100% confident in the accuracy of my predictions of "the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment", I failed to recognize that this current beatdown was both predictable and inevitable. I hope we've both learned something and that we both are able to keep from making the same mistake in the future.

But mistakes will still be made and the point of this post is to assure you that I am on your side and doing everything in my power to help you prepare for what is inevitably coming. I do so with all sincerity of purpose and the cloak of this responsibility wears heavily upon my soldiers every day. Just ask MrsF or the LTs. They'll tell you how they often catch me staring blankly off into the distance, seemingly detached from the moment. "What are you thinking about", they'll ask. "Oh, dear, where do I begin...". But that's OK; I'm not looking for sympathy. I just want you to know that I, and most everyone else I've had the privilege to meet within the metals "community", truly believe in the cause and we are doing our best to help as many as possible.

I've often said that the greatest thing about "being Turd" is the access this grants me and the friendships and contacts that I've been able to make, so, please indulge me this. As stated above, this post is not about me. It's about what I assume must be on your mind this weekend. Namely, is this real and are the people with these websites trustworthy? For what it's worth, here's some of what I know (with apologies to anyone I mistakenly leave out):

  • Jim Sinclair (Santa): JSMineset was the first metals website I ever visited. That I've actually gotten to know Jim a little bit is a great honor. I've known a couple of NYSE-listed CEOs is in my life and Jim is no different. He smart and wise. Measured in his words but with a vision. Under no circumstances does he need to publish JSM but he does. Why? Because he cares. Period. He firmly believes that he can clearly see what is coming and he's trying to use his platform to warn as many as possible. You can trust and believe in him because I do.
  • Andrew Maguire: Not sure where to start and I'll try to keep this brief. Andy is a true gentleman and staunch ally of all of us. Sort of like Jim Sinclair, he doesn't need any of this but he's sick of the injustice and the inequity created by the bullion banks...and he's fighting back. Even though we've never met, I've come to trust him implicitly.
  • Ned Naylor-Leyland: I don't think you could find a nicer guy on the face of the planet. Again, just like so many of us, Ned's sort of had this stuff thrust upon him. But he's an eloquent spokesman for our cause and I've come to value him as a friend.
  • Jim Willie: You may think that Jim has some crazy theories. I know I do. But please do not doubt his intellect, his intuition or his sincerity. The guy is a true visionary and I have no doubt that, one day soon, he will be vindicated and treated as such.
  • Bill Murphy and Chris Powell: The veteran soldiers of the movement. Though Bill might seem a bit of a loose cannon from time to time, he's a good man and tireless campaigner against The Cartels. Chris is a solid, upright and honest man whose commitment and integrity benefits all of us.
  • Ted Butler, Ranting Andy, Mike Krieger, Jim Quinn, Kerry Lutz, Dave Janda, David Morgan, Alasdair Macleod, Jeff Nielson, Detlev Schilchter, John Williams: All of these guys either write newsletters or offer paid subscription analysis and I have either met them in person or made their acquaintance via Skype. All of them provide a valuable resource and all of them are doing everything they can to help the cause. I feel I can personally vouch for them and I strongly recommend that you trust them, too.
  • There are many others but, for the sake of your time, I'll stop here.

I could go on but I don't want to turn this into some kind of LoveFest. The point of this is what I stated above. Though you should always question the things you read, do your own research and due diligence, I wanted to pass along what I know to reassure you about the gold community and those involved within it. I hope I've done just that.

Please utilize the rest of this weekend to get some much-needed rest and relaxation. To me, it's quite clear that we have entered the final chapter of bullion bank hegemony and the days ahead are only going to get more volatile. You're going to need information and wisdom to see your way through it so I hope that this post has been a valuable use of your time.

See you Monday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 13, 2013 - 4:00pm

First ?

First ?

QE to infinity
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:04pm



Apr 13, 2013 - 4:04pm
القراع عصفور
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:08pm

LCS report

no one in my area is selling ASE's or junk below 29 or so. one dealer told me that he can sell "upstream" for more than spot! what i assume he meant by that is the refiners are even buying over spot. i find the same on-line. just my observations. i do not know what to believe anymore.

i was 2nd when i began writing this.

good luck and God bless to all.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:12pm

Top 10ish

Long and strong with a hangover.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:13pm

Behold the TURDle

He makes progress by sticking his neck out.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:18pm

Why do you do it?

A guy in an old Wagon Train episode gave this "speech" reminded me of us...

"Listen boy... it ain't findin' the gold that's important, it's the lookin'.

Most folks go through life knowin' exactly what's in store for 'em.

No ups, no downs, just driftin' along.

For me, every time I pan a stream it's, it's the not knowin', whether I'm gonna come up with just plain mud or some of that yellow stuff.

That's livin'."

p.s. Hey! Lucky 7!!!

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:20pm

Well said

I don't have doubts about any of the people you mentioned. I don't have doubts about my decision to buy physical bullion. I know what's coming. I just thought it would have been here by now. I agree that it's only going to get harder from here.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:23pm

sometimes you just have to step back

and smell some roses!

I kind of think of us here as a team,

Santa is the owner of the club

and Turd is our manager!

Go Team!

Lamenting Laverne
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:25pm

This is what making a cash only market for gold looks like to me

I had been offline all day and came home from a great dinner with great wine - a wee bit tipsy - to log on and see carnage all over the screen.

The great wealth transfer has started for real.

@ The Green Manalishi about GoldTrends - I agree, and it suddenly also makes sense of the news story that JPM aquired a new big vault in NY many months ago.

A couple of days ago, it was reported that JPM was removing *registered* inventory from the Comex - much more than other Comex participants. That could be real physical deliveries, but it could also be the same as when we take cash out of the banking system - namely that JPM is no longer in delivery mode but in preserving mode. If the Comex breaks, they are not going to have "money in that Comex-bank".

The orchestrated decline yesterday has resulted in what is described as an illiquid non-stop market. To me, this means that market makers are not stepping up to take the buy side of the long liquidation.

On Monday, when the paper market is likely to keep plummeting due to margin calls over the weekend - worsened if the physical market remains closed or access disturbed - the short hedgies and JPM will be zipping coffee, while watching Gold paper longs being decimated (wealth transfer). They will cover their shorts all the way to the bottom of the point, where the panic selling exhausts itself.

If they are happy with the level, they will start buying to create the bottom. If they are not happy, i.e. too many strong longs are not selling, and hence posing a continued threat to the fact that they have no more physical to deliver, my guess is that they will hike margins - "due to excessive volatility" - to keep the flush going a bit longer - possibly all the way up to 100%.

By the time the paper market turns around JPM will be long or neutral. My guess is that they will be long - having taken the other side of the phys hedging initiated due to the closure of the systems in London, because those guys actually have physical to deliver. Then JPM will stand for delivery, and take the loot into their own non-comex vault, to be used in the new monetary paradigm.

The few remaining stubborn gold longs, that could not be flushed, stand for delivery from now on, and when the remaining Comex inventories have been emptied. The Comex will default and pay in cash - or alternatively there will have been unlocked so much physical that the stubborn longs can be served, and the Comex will live on as a cash gold exchange.

I think that Jim Sinclair is right about this bit, but I just don't see how he could envision that outcome without a washout like this aka the final destruction of the paper gold market. Come to think of it - he did say he expected a washout - but he also said that he though the low was in by his birthday. Maybe he got some bad intel.

Where this is ending dollar price wise is anybody's guess - much lower I suspect - but I feel very encouraged. This is proof that the wheels are coming off and that they have very little physical to deliver, so they needed to break the market to get out of their obligations to avoid outright default.

In any case, I find it hard to believe that this is just another rinse and repeat to start another paper cycle, because of the unprecedented outflows from GLD. It seems, they are now dismantling their cash cow and prime retail control mechanism, which tells me that soon they won't need it anymore.

I think that we may have the "Gold Price Going Dark" for a period coming up quite soon. One could argue that the coindealer website outages and the London system unavailability means that this has already started. In any case it seems we will all soon see if all our hours of research and analysis will prove us right, or if we will be revealed as the biggest suckers of the century.

As I said - I am very encouraged by yesterday's action - even if it stings to look at. PS: Guess what I munched on for dinner..... Fried Squid ;-)
Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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