Friday Gold Theatrics

Fri, Apr 12, 2013 - 10:52am

A concerted effort was made this morning to smash gold through the bottom of its 18-month range. It failed. However, you can be certain that they will try again so you need to keep a few things in perspective.

First of all, perhaps you need a reminder that we've been discussing this possibility for weeks. If you missed any of these posts, perhaps today would be a good day to go back and review them.

So, at 5:00 a.m. EDT this morning, the attack commenced. The plan was to drive prices down enough in the pre-market that, when the Comex opened at 8:20 a.m. enough sell-stops would be triggered that would break gold down through $1525 and then the thing would take on a life of its own. Below $1525 undoubtedly lay a veritable cornucopia of sellstops that, if/when triggered, will send price momentarily plunging. Earlier today, they failed. Price in the June13 gold bottomed at $1525.60. But don't worry, they'll be back. Maybe as soon as later today (after the PM fix?) or Monday. Will they fail again or will we get The Final Washout as we've been mentioning? We'll see...

Here's the 5-minute chart from earlier today where you can see the action in all its glory. Again, note the selling in the final 10 minutes before the open that lowered price from $1544 to $1536. This was the final attempt at mustering enough selling to prompt a washout at 8:20. It didn't work. Yes, price immediately fell $10 at the open but, again and significantly, it stopped at turned at $1525.60.

OK, so where are we on the long-term charts? I apologize for having to use these FTC charts but they're the only ones that I can access that show the "continuous" price. You should be able to click on them to expand them. NOTE THE LOWS IN RED.

Look, as stated above, I can't imagine that they're not going to try again soon. The Spec Momos might even get a little help from The Forces of Darkness. I mean, shoot, why not? All of the selling that will materialize below $1525 will allow The Cartels to cover all kinds of additional shorts. Again, we'll see. But you have to be prepared, both mentally and financially, for this to happen. Both gold and silver are historically oversold from a CoT perspective. To remind you of this and to prepare you for today's CoT, let's go back and look at the CoT structures from the lows on the charts above.

On 12/27/11, as gold was bottoming at $1525, the weekly Commitment of Traders Report looked like this:

  • LargeSpec longs 167,413. LargeSpec shorts 36,625. Net long ratio 4.57:1
  • SmallSpec longs 57,327. SmallSpec shorts 24,183. Net long ratio 2.37:1
  • Gold Cartel longs 162,522. Cartel shorts 326,454. Net short ratio 2.01:1
  • Total open interest 418,945
  • On 5/29/12, the Commitment of Traders Report looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 167,439. LargeSpec shorts 56,727. Net long ratio 2.95:1
    • SmallSpec longs 49,856. SmallSpec shorts 29,859. Net long ratio 1.67:1
    • Gold Cartel longs 170,208. Cartel shorts 300,917. Net short ratio 1.77:1
    • Total open interest 419,991

    Last week (and today's will be even more dramatic), the CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 202,634. LargeSpec shorts 82,428. Net long ratio 2.46:1
    • SmallSpec longs 52,253. SmallSpec shorts 29,937. Net long ratio 1.75:1
    • Gold Cartel longs 137,205. Gold Cartel shorts 279,727. Net short ratio 2.04:1
    • Total open interest 417,176

    So I ask you: What is different this time? Nothing! No, I take that back. The only real difference is the amount of disinformation and SPIN trying to convince you to sell your metal and convert it back to fiat. Other than that, NOTHING! And wait until we get the updated report today! I'll be sure to update this post and show the numbers in an identical format so that you can make an easy comparison over the weekend.

    Let's move on to silver. On 12/27/11, the silver CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 24,026. LargeSpec shorts 17,171. Net long ratio 1.40:1
    • SmallSpec longs 20,294. SmallSpec shorts 13,017. Net long ratio 1.56:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 41,224. Silver Cartel shorts 55,356. Net short ratio 1.34:1
    • Total open interest 103,993

    Then, on 6/19/12, the CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 27,767. LargeSpec shorts 17,665. Net long ratio 1.57:1
    • SmallSpec longs 21,704. SmallSpec shorts 14,852. Net long ratio 1.46:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 47,447. Silver Cartel shorts 64,401. Net short ratio 1.36:1
    • Total open interest 122,508

    And last week (7 trading days ago and with OI 11,000 lower) look like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 38,201. LargeSpec shorts 30,055. Net long ratio 1.27:1
    • SmallSpec longs 27,211. SmallSpec shorts 16,854. Net long ratio 1.61:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 57,847. Silver Cartel shorts 76,350. Net short ratio 1.32:1
    • Total open interest 155,755

    So, what's different in silver? A LOT! Well...not really that much. The net ratios are almost identical to where they were at bottoms in the past. But look at the size! The Specs are gross short 50% more contracts than at past lows and the Commercials are long more contracts than ever before. And this was last week! When open interest was 155,755! As of this Wednesday (2 days ago), the total OI had grown to 166,621! How do you suppose the ratios and the total look at this moment?? Perhaps more bullish than I ever conceived possible?!?! Again, we'll at least get an update through Tuesday later this afternoon and I'll post it into this thread once it's released.

    As I go to hit "SEND" I see that "they" have finally succeeded in dropping price through $1525. Funny how this has happened immediately following the London PM fix. So, there you go. Look for a "V" bottom very soon and a sharp rebound by later today or Monday. This is it! This is what we've been waiting for...A final, capitulative, sell-stop running Washout. Let it run its course and then let's see what happens next.


    4:10 p.m. EDT UPDATE:

    Well, I suppose I could go on all afternoon about what transpired today but much of that has been covered in the comments of this thread. Therefore, I'll just stick to two things. This afternoon's Globex action and your CoT update.

    Here's a 1-minute chart of the sharp selloff this afternoon on the Globex. This looks like a margin liquidation to me. Why on earth would an actual person wait until 3:20 in the afternoon to sell into the low-liquidity Globex? Either way, it doesn't make anyone any more confident heading into Monday.

    This week's CoT is out and it wasn't quite as interesting as I'd hoped. In gold, where price rose $11 on an OI change of just 663 contracts, I didn't expect much...and I received little in return. The LargeSpecs reduced their net long by 800 contracts. The SmallSpecs added 2100 net longs and The Cartel added 1300 net short.

    The silver report was surprising, though, in that hardly any changes took place in the Spec category, even though price rose 63¢ for the week and OI rose by 6,486.

    The silver LargeSpecs added 300 longs and also added 500 shorts. The SmallSpecs sold 1400 longs and covered 1100 shorts. THE REAL ACTION and, once again perhaps the brewing Civil War, was in the Commercial space. JPM and their two pals added 2,634 new shorts, bringing their total back up to 78,984. Why did they do that? Because the other commercials added 3,213 new longs, bringing their total to an astonishing 61,060! All of this buying and selling drops the Silver Cartel net short ratio back to 1.29:1.

    Here's how silver looks when presented as it was earlier in this post:

    • LargeSpec longs 38,492. LargeSpec shorts 30,577. Net long ratio 1.26:1
    • SmallSpec longs 25,754. SmallSpec shorts 15,745. Net long ratio 1.64:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 61,060. Silver Cartel shorts 78,984. Net short ratio 1.29:1
    • Total open interest 162,241

    Keep in mind that, as of Wednesday night, silver OI had surged to 166,621 before falling back yesterday to 164,393. Since it appears that The Specs were not adding additional shorts this week, it is unlikely that they became net short as a category. It is also not true that the silver commercials have moved net long. At least not yet.

    However, DO NOT DISMISS the significance of the action pitting nearly everyone in the commercial space against JPM. The action since Tuesday is almost certainly related to the anger JPM must feel at the audacity shown by those who are seemingly attempting to challenge them.

    If we survive the weekend, Monday and the rest of next week are certainly going to be...uhh...interesting. Get some rest and relaxation this weekend. You're going to need it.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Just A Regular Guy
    Apr 12, 2013 - 7:54pm

    An interesting measurement

    I was poking back through the historical chart.

    Gold topped in the week of March 17 2008 @ 1032.8, then bottomed in October 2008 @ 681 (the very bottom of the candle). This decline was 681/1032.8 = 34.1% decline - from this gold rallied onto 1900...

    Gold topped the week of September 5 2011 @ 1921 (top of the candle), and is down now @ 1483.24.
    This decline was 1483.24/1921 = 22.8% decline.

    Considering how strong and long the sideways action has been, I'm guessing the up-move (if/when it comes) is going to really scare the be-jesus outta people. I'm of the opinion that it will be sooner (e.g. no more than 3 months wait) rather than later (say Sept-Oct. or even next year). But time will tell.....

    Stack on!

    Apr 12, 2013 - 7:54pm


    What happened today tells us these criminals will do whatever they have to do to keep gold from looking like a safe haven.

    The world should be scared, very scared.

    The dollar and the USA are going down. It can't be stopped...

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:00pm

    Today's mechanations . . .

    are the PTB trying to extend the current dollar-based system awhile longer. While I am a die-hard stacker, in a perverse way, this is a good thing.

    It keeps things on even keel, no riots, no need to fire on those who would try to take what I have prepared for my extended family. Yet.

    There is plenty of time for my PMs to show their true value. I would prefer that things go back to normal (old normal), but I fear that is wasted wishing.

    So, the only thing to do is to stack some more. I need to prepare, also for EMP strike. Fairly simple to make faraday cages for smaller items . . .

    Gold Dog
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:02pm

    Tomorrow night at the Stadium..

    ...some call it the United Center we will be singing along with;

    Fleetwood Mac " The Chain " 2013 - 04 - 04, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
    I Run Bartertown
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:05pm

    Volatility was always part of the deal

    When you started this, did you really expect that NONE of the blood on the floor would be yours?

    MMA Highlight - Legends Forever


    Congratulations to all who bought today.

    I'm too po'.

    I only mention that in the hopes that Monedas will send me some Libertads so his heart can grow 10 sizes today.

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:06pm

    Oh the games

    Those poor hedge funds . . . will be like lambs lead to the slaughter, when the commercials close the net.

    So Hedge funds are sophisticated. They are large pools of money run by "educated" people and by computers. The educated people are largely educated to think that gold is a relic, but still a tradable commodity. The computers are programmed by quants who are a newer breed of computer/math people who crunch numbers and deal with probabilities. They build math models that are supposed to take all eventualities, within certain parameters into account. Their models break when their parameters are violated.

    The Hedge funds make up the large speculators and are now possibly/likely net short gold and silver.

    The commercials are the bullion banks who understand and trade the gold and silver markets daily. They are the EE who do the bidding for the Fed, JPM etc.

    Apart from JPM, the commercials have now likely/probably switched to being net long.

    The commercials know more than we do. They deal with the primary dealers and they deal with suppliers. They know how much product is there and they hire very smart people. But they are of questionable moral fiber, and certainly are not committed to honest money, truth in markets etc.

    So, I'm thinking the Commercials know that the gig is finished. They see the writing on the wall and they know the end game is likely at hand. The 100 parts paper to 1 part "real product" is no longer sustainable. So apart from the politically motivated JPM, the rest are now switching and are mostly switched to being long.

    My question is, where to from here? How does this end? What moves JPM to switch? Does JPM become the next sacrificial lamb? When their options dry up, does a war begin? Let us hypothesize and attempt to figure out with our limited knowledge what might happen. Where are things going from here? What happens next? Lets get out our crystal balls and hypothesize.

    Obviously the pms can't have a foolish handle because that would let everyone know that the game is up. Although $1480 and $26 is foolish enough to me. At what point does the price become obviously foolish to the market? When does the "price discovery" mechanism break?

    Your thoughts?

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:08pm

    LCS report

    Went to the LCS... local LCS is out of silver and 1 oz gold. They've got fractional one ounce left and a few silver rounds. Looks like they got wiped out today.


    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:09pm

    Life'll Kill Ya

    Warren Zevon - I Was In The House When The House Burned Down - Graig Kilborn Show, 2000 (HD)

    I may be old and I may be bent
    But I had the money till it all got spent
    I had the money till they made me pay
    Then I had the sense to be on my way
    I had to stay in the underground
    I was in the house when the house burned down


    Love this chart.

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:12pm


    You might catch a glimpse of Damian over here...

    The Man Comes Around

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:15pm

    report on Los Angeles/ Long Beach Harbor

    I went by the LA Harbor (supposed to be one of the busiest harbors in the nation/United States).

    There were NINE (count 'em...NINE) big cargo ships anchored off Long Beach/LA Harbor. All of the 9, except for may be 2 or 3 ships, had NO cargo containers above the deck line. I used to see those ships loaded to the bridge sight line with cargo containers. Only 1 or 2 of those anchored had any cargo containers visible above the deck.

    My conclusion is that 9 massive cargo ships are anchored off shore from the busiest harbor on the West Coast and that no ships were moving into or out of the harbor. The cranes looked pretty quiet also.

    So, guess what fans... we're not exporting and we're not importing from Asia.

    All this talk about "up tick in the economy" is utter BS.

    There's some traffic on the Long Beach freeway (710) to LA, but its not that busy.

    My nose smells false figures.

    There's no way that Long Beach / Los Angeles Harbor can have NINE cargo ships at anchor with ZERO action around those ships and NO cargo containers ON those ships, with very little port activity AND have the "uptick in the economy" simultaneously.

    Something is really wrong here.

    I've not seen this many ships at anchor off shore since the time the Longshoreman's Union went out on strike and had 20 ships backed up for unloading. But those ships were filled to the top with cargo containers. These ships looked completely empty and riding high.

    There's nothing on board those ships and there's no action in the port.

    By the time we get to June, the downturn will be clear.

    Sell in May and go away has arrived.

    I Run Bartertown
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:16pm

    Somebody asked

    about buying NBC suits. I picked up a couple along with the gas masks, but I'm convinced a good thick layer of duct tape would work . The things are made for giants, or Dutchmen or something, so I'd need some duct tape anyway. Always need duct tape. And if you've already got the masks, it only makes sense to have the CS least until SHTF and the real nasty stuff hits the open market. .

    Gold Dog
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:20pm


    Our Damian keeps the girls safe...Think Shaq, only big and ugly! LOL

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:21pm
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:24pm

    Bit more downside... come and I ain't buying no more, but IMHO the $22 to $24 range will be a place to buy silver. I liked this chart a lot....

    Gold Dog
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:24pm

    All I am asking for is ten gold dollars....

    You know I'm only in it for the gold.

    The Loser (2 cam) Grateful Dead - 3-24-90 Knick Arena, Albany, NY (set1-05)

    Don't you push me baby, cause I'm moaning low....

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:25pm

    Looking For Evidence That This Drop Is "Fake"?

    So am I.

    I'm not a trader. I don't look at charts, seeking crosses and pennants and what-have-you. (I'm a far bigger believer in the power of T'n'A than TA.)

    But here's my evidence.

    Ultimately, Stoneleigh is right. Interest rates will rise, debts will be extinguished en masse, and metals prices will drop. That isn't now.

    Jim Willie tells us that JPM's IR derivatives swap book is the tool keeping interest rates low. JPM doesn't lose money. This week, I received a credit offer from JPM to borrow up to $25,000 at zero percent for 14 months with a (count them) one percent fee.

    Case closed.

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:32pm


    This CoT setup is working perfectly for the scoundrels.

    Last reporting period showed a minimal CB move toward net neutral. This is to allay fears to the Large Specs/Hedgies who care that they aren't just being set up, but rather that perhaps they are indeed in charge and are running this ship into the ground for massive short profits. Well, this weeks action will be reflected in next weeks CoT and we will see a resurgence of CB covering and/or CB long buying toward net neutrality. That day is just about here. Big action happened this week and will continue on Sunday night/Monday as fact, I believe it could be a slaughter. Don't watch it if ya can't hack it. But it'll be short, sweet and strong. A final flush could provide enough action to reflect NN on the CoT next week...or the week after....

    Then a confidence building, all-engulfing FUBM "should" materialize thereafter. You'll know when the bottom is in.


    silver foil hat
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:32pm

    bad heebee-jeebees this weekend

    I wonder if our children will write history books to accurately reflect WWIII began June 25, 1950.

    I've always held the belief paper's going to ZERO... as that is the amount of actual metal behind the paper.

    They got away with the Sandy Hook fraud. Now they are coming after your children 'for the collective'. Hitler used the same methods.

    The regime no longer feels they need to hide their end game for the sheeple.

    The metals plummeting is a result of everyone trying to get out of the dollar as fast as possible.

    That does not make sense you say?

    If the dollar is dead, that is no longer to be accepted internationally, then would you even take ONE dollar of FRN in payment for a good?

    Substitute "one dollar in monopoly money' for 'one dollar of FRN' and now ask the same question.

    How many dollars in 'monopoly money' would you take for an ounce of shiny? Or would you not accept them at all?

    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:43pm

    Days like this make the old days seem..

    Smokie- Needles and Pins


    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:48pm

    Growing my beard...

    On a whim I started growing a beard in March. I started telling people I'd shave it again when silver went back over $30. My wife is now very nervous.

    Texas Sandman
    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:53pm


    As usual, nice work on the premiums, and interesting stuff on the COT. We'll see if that's what happens next week. I'm sure the golden jackass is out saying I posted it right now.

    But I've said it before & I'll say it again... Or perhaps ask the question. Do premiums in junk coins lead the market? Can you make any sort of generalization about silver shortage globally because of apparent shortages of ASEs and junk coins, even as bars seem readily available and with modest premiums? If you could track this over a period of time, it may be possible to generalize. For the limited data Jake provides, it does seem there is a relationship with a long lag of perhaps a year or so. But you really can't say anything without seeing it over a long period. It is very weird, however that with silver prices in the dumpster, ASE sales are off the charts. There is enough data around to say that this rarely happens. And it's common sense. Why do people stand in line for ASEs when the price of silver is on a highway to hell???

    I felt like puking most of the day. And whether silver is going to $22 or $30, my barf indicator is pretty good at nailing times to go out & buy bullion. So I ravaged my futures account for funds & bought another 6 of the 100 oz RCM silver bars from Liberty with bullion around $26.17. I tried paying by a bank wire, but as with APMEX, I'm afraid B of A's system kicked out their account as having been pulled from their system, so it wouldn't let me send a bank wire there. That's unfortunate, because what I wound up doing was fedexing them a check. And they'll hold onto that check for 2 weeks before mailing my bars. Now they are very reliable about doing that right when that period ends. But it gives me absolutely no useful information about how tight supplies are!

    As for why I'm stubbornly buying more here rather than dumping everything I have... My "signal" for accumulating PMs was the papering over of the huge derivatives hole that happened with the TARP money. Over the years, that situation hasn't gotten better. Quite the contrary, these jokers have gone "all in" with printed money from the federal reserve. So I need to do the same.


    Apr 12, 2013 - 8:55pm



    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:02pm

    Remember Bradley Manning?

    I know there are plenty of other things going on today, but when is the last time you heard a peep about this?

    Big Daddy just shutting this down. Not even a transcriptionist in the room.

    The Masters will succeed in silencing thousands when they tout their successful prosecution of blatant espionage.

    Plenty of guys and gals coming home repeating the same stories. I know one of them. He's different.

    Assange has much more more from Manning, but refuses to release it until there's a resolution in the trial. ......... Alexa O'Brien covering the trial ..........Assange w/ Jon Pilger, which is info directly from Manning and others.

    Wishing everyone the best. Peace

    So It Goes
    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:06pm

    @ Strongsidejedi - report on Los Angeles/ Long Beach Harbor

    Thank you for that report from the front lines. Listen up folks. If this observation proves correct - THIS IS BIG STUFF.

    The ports of LB/LA are BIG STUFF.

    So it goes. (Stealing from Vonnegut in Slaughterhouse 5).

    From Wikipedia:

    The Port of Long Beach, also known as Long Beach’s Harbor Department, is the second busiest container port in the USA after the Port of Los Angeles, which it adjoins.[2] Acting as a major gateway for U.S.-Asian trade, the port occupies 3,200 acres (13 km2) of land with 25 miles (40 km) of waterfront in the city of Long Beach, California.

    The port's combined import and export value is nearly $100 billion per year[7]

    The port supports more than 30,000 jobs in the City of Long Beach ... In the City of Los Angeles, port operations generate more than 230,000 jobs.

    On the state level, the Port of Long Beach provides about 370,000 jobs and generates close to $5.6 billion a year in state and local tax revenues.

    Need I say more?

    Gold Dog
    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:14pm

    What gives?

    My lover is up in the shower and I came back...the gremlins ate DPH's Who links.

    The girl I love

    Is a perfect dresser

    wears every fashon to a T

    Heavens above

    I've got to ramble

    dressed up better than anyone

    you'll ever see

    Leave it to me



    so how come the other chickies look so much better

    without a penny to spend they're all dressed to the letter

    how come they come on oh, so cool

    but when you meet em every one's a fool


    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:14pm
    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:21pm

    Hey man....

    Im sitting here having some beers. If it happens it happens. If it doesn't, It doesn't. Either way it wont be obama caused. Thats right he doesnt get a caps for his "name", but who cares. Take care of you, put your oxygen mask on to say. Some things are out of your control..other than that stack it. I wouldn't hire these boneheads to shine my don't worry. Ohh no not the north Koreans...Fook ME? C'mon Berman would say. Its the best sale in history....join in the party. GUY

    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:29pm

    Brother John's latest

    Silver Update 4/12/13 Endgame Disconnect
    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:32pm

    @port of LA/LB

    another hint, check the staging area for cars/trucks unloaded from overseas, in 2008/9 they were literally looking for empty lots 10 miles inland to park them, noone was buying, if they knew this was coming the lots at the port will be empty, if they didn't, cars should be stack like cord wood around the harbor.

    Apr 12, 2013 - 9:33pm

    Gold Dog...

    That should be a nice concert. Enjoy. I was born, raised, and spent some adulthood there in the Windy. I remember the "Stadium" quite well. In fact, I was at the last regular season home game played there (Blackhawks) before they tore it down. I'm tellin ya, that place rocked/shook when the Anthem was sung....something else...and the "Organ" ! The UC is ok but it ain't the same. Lots of good concerts there too...."Yes" and "Rush" in the 70's...I'm lucky to have any memory of those. Glad to hear you are looking for farmland...I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Chitown when the natives start to get restless. I practiced a little medicine at Cook County Hospital in my early days (ER/Trauma dept.) and it can get a bit rowdy at times. Have an escape plan ready . Nice bidding on the hat. Congrats. ps. Must read that fine print on the Vit. V. "Only to be taken when the lady is PRESENT"


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