Friday Gold Theatrics

729
Fri, Apr 12, 2013 - 10:52am

A concerted effort was made this morning to smash gold through the bottom of its 18-month range. It failed. However, you can be certain that they will try again so you need to keep a few things in perspective.

First of all, perhaps you need a reminder that we've been discussing this possibility for weeks. If you missed any of these posts, perhaps today would be a good day to go back and review them.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/4619/turd-talks-metals

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4618/increasing-likelihood

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4551/forewarned-forearmed

So, at 5:00 a.m. EDT this morning, the attack commenced. The plan was to drive prices down enough in the pre-market that, when the Comex opened at 8:20 a.m. enough sell-stops would be triggered that would break gold down through $1525 and then the thing would take on a life of its own. Below $1525 undoubtedly lay a veritable cornucopia of sellstops that, if/when triggered, will send price momentarily plunging. Earlier today, they failed. Price in the June13 gold bottomed at $1525.60. But don't worry, they'll be back. Maybe as soon as later today (after the PM fix?) or Monday. Will they fail again or will we get The Final Washout as we've been mentioning? We'll see...

Here's the 5-minute chart from earlier today where you can see the action in all its glory. Again, note the selling in the final 10 minutes before the open that lowered price from $1544 to $1536. This was the final attempt at mustering enough selling to prompt a washout at 8:20. It didn't work. Yes, price immediately fell $10 at the open but, again and significantly, it stopped at turned at $1525.60.

OK, so where are we on the long-term charts? I apologize for having to use these FTC charts but they're the only ones that I can access that show the "continuous" price. You should be able to click on them to expand them. NOTE THE LOWS IN RED.

Look, as stated above, I can't imagine that they're not going to try again soon. The Spec Momos might even get a little help from The Forces of Darkness. I mean, shoot, why not? All of the selling that will materialize below $1525 will allow The Cartels to cover all kinds of additional shorts. Again, we'll see. But you have to be prepared, both mentally and financially, for this to happen. Both gold and silver are historically oversold from a CoT perspective. To remind you of this and to prepare you for today's CoT, let's go back and look at the CoT structures from the lows on the charts above.

On 12/27/11, as gold was bottoming at $1525, the weekly Commitment of Traders Report looked like this:

  • LargeSpec longs 167,413. LargeSpec shorts 36,625. Net long ratio 4.57:1
  • SmallSpec longs 57,327. SmallSpec shorts 24,183. Net long ratio 2.37:1
  • Gold Cartel longs 162,522. Cartel shorts 326,454. Net short ratio 2.01:1
  • Total open interest 418,945
  • On 5/29/12, the Commitment of Traders Report looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 167,439. LargeSpec shorts 56,727. Net long ratio 2.95:1
    • SmallSpec longs 49,856. SmallSpec shorts 29,859. Net long ratio 1.67:1
    • Gold Cartel longs 170,208. Cartel shorts 300,917. Net short ratio 1.77:1
    • Total open interest 419,991

    Last week (and today's will be even more dramatic), the CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 202,634. LargeSpec shorts 82,428. Net long ratio 2.46:1
    • SmallSpec longs 52,253. SmallSpec shorts 29,937. Net long ratio 1.75:1
    • Gold Cartel longs 137,205. Gold Cartel shorts 279,727. Net short ratio 2.04:1
    • Total open interest 417,176

    So I ask you: What is different this time? Nothing! No, I take that back. The only real difference is the amount of disinformation and SPIN trying to convince you to sell your metal and convert it back to fiat. Other than that, NOTHING! And wait until we get the updated report today! I'll be sure to update this post and show the numbers in an identical format so that you can make an easy comparison over the weekend.

    Let's move on to silver. On 12/27/11, the silver CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 24,026. LargeSpec shorts 17,171. Net long ratio 1.40:1
    • SmallSpec longs 20,294. SmallSpec shorts 13,017. Net long ratio 1.56:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 41,224. Silver Cartel shorts 55,356. Net short ratio 1.34:1
    • Total open interest 103,993

    Then, on 6/19/12, the CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 27,767. LargeSpec shorts 17,665. Net long ratio 1.57:1
    • SmallSpec longs 21,704. SmallSpec shorts 14,852. Net long ratio 1.46:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 47,447. Silver Cartel shorts 64,401. Net short ratio 1.36:1
    • Total open interest 122,508

    And last week (7 trading days ago and with OI 11,000 lower) look like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 38,201. LargeSpec shorts 30,055. Net long ratio 1.27:1
    • SmallSpec longs 27,211. SmallSpec shorts 16,854. Net long ratio 1.61:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 57,847. Silver Cartel shorts 76,350. Net short ratio 1.32:1
    • Total open interest 155,755

    So, what's different in silver? A LOT! Well...not really that much. The net ratios are almost identical to where they were at bottoms in the past. But look at the size! The Specs are gross short 50% more contracts than at past lows and the Commercials are long more contracts than ever before. And this was last week! When open interest was 155,755! As of this Wednesday (2 days ago), the total OI had grown to 166,621! How do you suppose the ratios and the total look at this moment?? Perhaps more bullish than I ever conceived possible?!?! Again, we'll at least get an update through Tuesday later this afternoon and I'll post it into this thread once it's released.

    As I go to hit "SEND" I see that "they" have finally succeeded in dropping price through $1525. Funny how this has happened immediately following the London PM fix. So, there you go. Look for a "V" bottom very soon and a sharp rebound by later today or Monday. This is it! This is what we've been waiting for...A final, capitulative, sell-stop running Washout. Let it run its course and then let's see what happens next.

    TF

    4:10 p.m. EDT UPDATE:

    Well, I suppose I could go on all afternoon about what transpired today but much of that has been covered in the comments of this thread. Therefore, I'll just stick to two things. This afternoon's Globex action and your CoT update.

    Here's a 1-minute chart of the sharp selloff this afternoon on the Globex. This looks like a margin liquidation to me. Why on earth would an actual person wait until 3:20 in the afternoon to sell into the low-liquidity Globex? Either way, it doesn't make anyone any more confident heading into Monday.

    This week's CoT is out and it wasn't quite as interesting as I'd hoped. In gold, where price rose $11 on an OI change of just 663 contracts, I didn't expect much...and I received little in return. The LargeSpecs reduced their net long by 800 contracts. The SmallSpecs added 2100 net longs and The Cartel added 1300 net short.

    The silver report was surprising, though, in that hardly any changes took place in the Spec category, even though price rose 63¢ for the week and OI rose by 6,486.

    The silver LargeSpecs added 300 longs and also added 500 shorts. The SmallSpecs sold 1400 longs and covered 1100 shorts. THE REAL ACTION and, once again perhaps the brewing Civil War, was in the Commercial space. JPM and their two pals added 2,634 new shorts, bringing their total back up to 78,984. Why did they do that? Because the other commercials added 3,213 new longs, bringing their total to an astonishing 61,060! All of this buying and selling drops the Silver Cartel net short ratio back to 1.29:1.

    Here's how silver looks when presented as it was earlier in this post:

    • LargeSpec longs 38,492. LargeSpec shorts 30,577. Net long ratio 1.26:1
    • SmallSpec longs 25,754. SmallSpec shorts 15,745. Net long ratio 1.64:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 61,060. Silver Cartel shorts 78,984. Net short ratio 1.29:1
    • Total open interest 162,241

    Keep in mind that, as of Wednesday night, silver OI had surged to 166,621 before falling back yesterday to 164,393. Since it appears that The Specs were not adding additional shorts this week, it is unlikely that they became net short as a category. It is also not true that the silver commercials have moved net long. At least not yet.

    However, DO NOT DISMISS the significance of the action pitting nearly everyone in the commercial space against JPM. The action since Tuesday is almost certainly related to the anger JPM must feel at the audacity shown by those who are seemingly attempting to challenge them.

    If we survive the weekend, Monday and the rest of next week are certainly going to be...uhh...interesting. Get some rest and relaxation this weekend. You're going to need it.

    TF

    About the Author

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    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

      729 Comments

    lakedweller2
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:08pm

    Productive Meeting at the White House

    19 Bank CEOs meet at White House yesterday and the President does not have it on his schedule but drops by to see if they have enough donuts. Is the White House in New York? Are the CEOs government employees.? The White House doesn't even have tours for the Serfs!

    Any similarities with the Mafia Business Plan?

    Let's chose up sides and play some ball with these guys...they get the first 500,000 picks, then it is our turn.

    Negative comments to follow from the intern camp.

    This message not cleared through Regulators so there could be some restrictions, maybe,...hello...regulators you there...hello...dial tone

    ¤
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:08pm

    Defcon 3

    Relax...I read that over 3 days ago and posted the article or mention of it at the News ticker and it's merely a formality when certain US military activities reach a certain point. We have nothing to worry about.

    S. Korea and Japan have some real worries...as does Guam.

    If they launch a missile we'll wash it down before it gets 100-200 miles or so. Just my guess.

    القراع عصفور
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:09pm

    BTFD?

    what Dip?

    https://comparesilverprices.com/

    i wanted to buy this morning, but no one is selling physical at these prices. (except maybe for the miners)

    drop the "M". Blythe has moved on. the new acronym is FUB. Fuck you Bart (Chilton).

    serenity now. serenity now.

    Dr G
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:10pm

    Very nice bounce off 1500 for

    Very nice bounce off 1500 for my precious.

    Gold Dog
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:10pm

    Nap time.....

    ...that is how upset this Dog is.

    ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz..............

    EDIT- I am to ONLY be disterbed if we start bouncing around 1440 so I can "catch a falling knife" and "buy on a new low"!

    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:10pm

    FYI TO EVERYONE

    I just read an update that Andy posted to all of his MT members and members of The Army. Let's just say that it was an EXTRAORDINARY DAY IN PHYSICAL DEMAND.

    He just finished a segment with King that will soon be posted to the KWN site. Please be on the lookout for it. I am 100% confident that you will want and need to hear it.

    treefrog
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:11pm

    holding steady

    all my ounces are holding steady @ 31.1 grams.

    lakedweller2 ¤
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:11pm

    Defcon 3

    Wait. Do the same guys that make the market decisions make the missile defense decisions? I don't know if ....

    Dr G
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:11pm

    Yes

    Silver now 50¢ off lows

    foggyroad
    Apr 12, 2013 - 12:13pm

    Silver Substitute Discovered!!

    Dr Ima Fullocrap announced today, Silver is toast!

    Dr Fullocrap issued a press release from the Werfartinthrusilk Metallurgy Institute, detailing, the results of tests conducted by researcher technicians Digitup Fivbuck and colleague Kan Teatit on their new alloy 'Thinair miraculum'

    'Thinair ​miraculum', touted as a 'miracle metalurgical discovery' displays all the current properties of silver, conductivity, reflective attributes, malablility, etc., but amazingly costs only pennies a tonne to produce.

    The secret of its dirt cheap production costs, is it self replicating property!

    By simply placing a known quantity in a common bank vault, standing on one foot, scratching the left buttock, while squinting, mentally picturing a herd of unicorns flying over the moon, a vast quantity of 'Thinair ​miraculum' can be produced.

    Unlimited quantities of 'Thinair ​miraculum', where produced at the press release conference apparently for pennies per tonne.

    Conference attendees strangely were required to smoke some kind of funny looking crumpled cigarettes prior to entry.

    Mining Company CEO's, responded to reporters questions of how will this effect business decisions going forward, on mass they responded; "CapEx will plummet, do you have any more of that crumpled cigarette."

    Miner Stocks were down 5% on the News.

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