Friday Gold Theatrics

729
Fri, Apr 12, 2013 - 10:52am

A concerted effort was made this morning to smash gold through the bottom of its 18-month range. It failed. However, you can be certain that they will try again so you need to keep a few things in perspective.

First of all, perhaps you need a reminder that we've been discussing this possibility for weeks. If you missed any of these posts, perhaps today would be a good day to go back and review them.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/4619/turd-talks-metals

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4618/increasing-likelihood

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4551/forewarned-forearmed

So, at 5:00 a.m. EDT this morning, the attack commenced. The plan was to drive prices down enough in the pre-market that, when the Comex opened at 8:20 a.m. enough sell-stops would be triggered that would break gold down through $1525 and then the thing would take on a life of its own. Below $1525 undoubtedly lay a veritable cornucopia of sellstops that, if/when triggered, will send price momentarily plunging. Earlier today, they failed. Price in the June13 gold bottomed at $1525.60. But don't worry, they'll be back. Maybe as soon as later today (after the PM fix?) or Monday. Will they fail again or will we get The Final Washout as we've been mentioning? We'll see...

Here's the 5-minute chart from earlier today where you can see the action in all its glory. Again, note the selling in the final 10 minutes before the open that lowered price from $1544 to $1536. This was the final attempt at mustering enough selling to prompt a washout at 8:20. It didn't work. Yes, price immediately fell $10 at the open but, again and significantly, it stopped at turned at $1525.60.

OK, so where are we on the long-term charts? I apologize for having to use these FTC charts but they're the only ones that I can access that show the "continuous" price. You should be able to click on them to expand them. NOTE THE LOWS IN RED.

Look, as stated above, I can't imagine that they're not going to try again soon. The Spec Momos might even get a little help from The Forces of Darkness. I mean, shoot, why not? All of the selling that will materialize below $1525 will allow The Cartels to cover all kinds of additional shorts. Again, we'll see. But you have to be prepared, both mentally and financially, for this to happen. Both gold and silver are historically oversold from a CoT perspective. To remind you of this and to prepare you for today's CoT, let's go back and look at the CoT structures from the lows on the charts above.

On 12/27/11, as gold was bottoming at $1525, the weekly Commitment of Traders Report looked like this:

  • LargeSpec longs 167,413. LargeSpec shorts 36,625. Net long ratio 4.57:1
  • SmallSpec longs 57,327. SmallSpec shorts 24,183. Net long ratio 2.37:1
  • Gold Cartel longs 162,522. Cartel shorts 326,454. Net short ratio 2.01:1
  • Total open interest 418,945
  • On 5/29/12, the Commitment of Traders Report looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 167,439. LargeSpec shorts 56,727. Net long ratio 2.95:1
    • SmallSpec longs 49,856. SmallSpec shorts 29,859. Net long ratio 1.67:1
    • Gold Cartel longs 170,208. Cartel shorts 300,917. Net short ratio 1.77:1
    • Total open interest 419,991

    Last week (and today's will be even more dramatic), the CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 202,634. LargeSpec shorts 82,428. Net long ratio 2.46:1
    • SmallSpec longs 52,253. SmallSpec shorts 29,937. Net long ratio 1.75:1
    • Gold Cartel longs 137,205. Gold Cartel shorts 279,727. Net short ratio 2.04:1
    • Total open interest 417,176

    So I ask you: What is different this time? Nothing! No, I take that back. The only real difference is the amount of disinformation and SPIN trying to convince you to sell your metal and convert it back to fiat. Other than that, NOTHING! And wait until we get the updated report today! I'll be sure to update this post and show the numbers in an identical format so that you can make an easy comparison over the weekend.

    Let's move on to silver. On 12/27/11, the silver CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 24,026. LargeSpec shorts 17,171. Net long ratio 1.40:1
    • SmallSpec longs 20,294. SmallSpec shorts 13,017. Net long ratio 1.56:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 41,224. Silver Cartel shorts 55,356. Net short ratio 1.34:1
    • Total open interest 103,993

    Then, on 6/19/12, the CoT looked like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 27,767. LargeSpec shorts 17,665. Net long ratio 1.57:1
    • SmallSpec longs 21,704. SmallSpec shorts 14,852. Net long ratio 1.46:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 47,447. Silver Cartel shorts 64,401. Net short ratio 1.36:1
    • Total open interest 122,508

    And last week (7 trading days ago and with OI 11,000 lower) look like this:

    • LargeSpec longs 38,201. LargeSpec shorts 30,055. Net long ratio 1.27:1
    • SmallSpec longs 27,211. SmallSpec shorts 16,854. Net long ratio 1.61:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 57,847. Silver Cartel shorts 76,350. Net short ratio 1.32:1
    • Total open interest 155,755

    So, what's different in silver? A LOT! Well...not really that much. The net ratios are almost identical to where they were at bottoms in the past. But look at the size! The Specs are gross short 50% more contracts than at past lows and the Commercials are long more contracts than ever before. And this was last week! When open interest was 155,755! As of this Wednesday (2 days ago), the total OI had grown to 166,621! How do you suppose the ratios and the total look at this moment?? Perhaps more bullish than I ever conceived possible?!?! Again, we'll at least get an update through Tuesday later this afternoon and I'll post it into this thread once it's released.

    As I go to hit "SEND" I see that "they" have finally succeeded in dropping price through $1525. Funny how this has happened immediately following the London PM fix. So, there you go. Look for a "V" bottom very soon and a sharp rebound by later today or Monday. This is it! This is what we've been waiting for...A final, capitulative, sell-stop running Washout. Let it run its course and then let's see what happens next.

    TF

    4:10 p.m. EDT UPDATE:

    Well, I suppose I could go on all afternoon about what transpired today but much of that has been covered in the comments of this thread. Therefore, I'll just stick to two things. This afternoon's Globex action and your CoT update.

    Here's a 1-minute chart of the sharp selloff this afternoon on the Globex. This looks like a margin liquidation to me. Why on earth would an actual person wait until 3:20 in the afternoon to sell into the low-liquidity Globex? Either way, it doesn't make anyone any more confident heading into Monday.

    This week's CoT is out and it wasn't quite as interesting as I'd hoped. In gold, where price rose $11 on an OI change of just 663 contracts, I didn't expect much...and I received little in return. The LargeSpecs reduced their net long by 800 contracts. The SmallSpecs added 2100 net longs and The Cartel added 1300 net short.

    The silver report was surprising, though, in that hardly any changes took place in the Spec category, even though price rose 63¢ for the week and OI rose by 6,486.

    The silver LargeSpecs added 300 longs and also added 500 shorts. The SmallSpecs sold 1400 longs and covered 1100 shorts. THE REAL ACTION and, once again perhaps the brewing Civil War, was in the Commercial space. JPM and their two pals added 2,634 new shorts, bringing their total back up to 78,984. Why did they do that? Because the other commercials added 3,213 new longs, bringing their total to an astonishing 61,060! All of this buying and selling drops the Silver Cartel net short ratio back to 1.29:1.

    Here's how silver looks when presented as it was earlier in this post:

    • LargeSpec longs 38,492. LargeSpec shorts 30,577. Net long ratio 1.26:1
    • SmallSpec longs 25,754. SmallSpec shorts 15,745. Net long ratio 1.64:1
    • Silver Cartel longs 61,060. Silver Cartel shorts 78,984. Net short ratio 1.29:1
    • Total open interest 162,241

    Keep in mind that, as of Wednesday night, silver OI had surged to 166,621 before falling back yesterday to 164,393. Since it appears that The Specs were not adding additional shorts this week, it is unlikely that they became net short as a category. It is also not true that the silver commercials have moved net long. At least not yet.

    However, DO NOT DISMISS the significance of the action pitting nearly everyone in the commercial space against JPM. The action since Tuesday is almost certainly related to the anger JPM must feel at the audacity shown by those who are seemingly attempting to challenge them.

    If we survive the weekend, Monday and the rest of next week are certainly going to be...uhh...interesting. Get some rest and relaxation this weekend. You're going to need it.

    TF

    About the Author

    Founder
    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

      729 Comments

    the_circle
    Apr 12, 2013 - 3:50pm

    Look at the dicks

    Look at the dicks on the comex shooting themselves in the feet with their mega gold sale! Them vaults are gonna be very airy soon! Keep it up morons. We probably needed this, things were stale for a while.

    SaratogaPrepper
    Apr 12, 2013 - 3:50pm

    This weeks

    preps were supposed to be ammo. Too expensive, if you can find any. Luckily Provident was having a sale today. 25 antelope destined for the bottom of Lake Champlain. Please don't call PETA on me.

    Provident site worked fine for me. A might slow, but that just lowered my cost.

    Stratajema
    Apr 12, 2013 - 3:51pm

    Just wait...

    .. for the summer doldrums in the metals. However, this smack down is so unusual that I think something really big is about to happen in the financial system, somewhere.

    champuga
    Apr 12, 2013 - 3:51pm

    I bought some APMEX this morning....should have waited! LOL

    What are you going to do though? I am a buyer now up until $35.

    TechTrade sarah
    Apr 12, 2013 - 3:52pm

    Pick the Days

    Well, you can always use me as a contrary indicator, right? You want to buy, here's your signal. Can anyone construe this price action as remotely bullish? No short covering rally into the close, no people rushing in to buy at this incredible price? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different outcome. So, keep stacking!

    LOUP-GAROU
    Apr 12, 2013 - 3:58pm

    no one selling

    figure I would try to front run the pawn shops and make some good deals on bullion! No such luck. no one was selling metal today and one shop had several customers looking to buy! try again tomorrow

    Dr G
    Apr 12, 2013 - 3:59pm

    Earlier this morning I told

    Earlier this morning I told everybody to not buy. Price was going lower. Hope you listened, because it is STILL going lower.

    Dr G
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:00pm

    @Loup-Garou, Don't fool

    @Loup-Garou,

    Don't fool yourself into thinking everybody is being "strong hands". Plenty of people will be selling this dip. Patience, you will find what you are looking for.

    Bollocks
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:00pm

    Silver66

    Great stuff. Thanks for the write up .

    linkman Beastly Stack
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:02pm

    If some of you only realised...................................

    Oh happy day! I've been waiting for the Metals to get beat up,and it may continue for awhile, because my hundreds of hours of research told me this was going to happen. One guy I follow, Mr. NoName, told me last fall this was going to happen and he has been spot on consistently. Month after Month. He is not well known @ all. He's just stackin'. You are as safe as a baby in its mothers arms.

    Their will be days like this so i'd suggest the faint of heart forget about your Metals, Quit following it blow by blow, Do other things that you know have to get done like what else are you doing for your future security. Do some research on your interests.

    If it helps, watch for the Dollar to go up sharply against competing currencies. This will be when their will be a perceived flight to safety of the dollar. The truth though is ultimately that dollar will fail. Too much printing.Their. Is . nowhere. to. go. BTW, the Korea issue is Kabuki theatre. We will be there because they have no Central Bank. Look up Seven in Five W/ Wesley Clark for explanation.

    Even through a Miracle the CBs hold on the metals will revalue up for a host of reasons.

    I've never felt stronger about anything in my 57 yrs. on this planet.

    dudestacker
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:03pm

    If you're into sleuthing

    I think Turd's impetus for the HEH call can be found somewhere in this thread. That's all I'm sayin. I repeat, that's all I'm sayin. Over and out.

    Dr G
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:04pm

    There will come a day soon

    There will come a day soon where physical WILL NOT be available for purchase, and all those who waited for some stupidly low "bottom" will not have any real wealth in their possession......

    ...We are not catching the falling knife, we are buying the fucking dip, and there is a big god damn difference...

    Congrats. You have drank the kool-aid and are now delusional. Buying a dip would be waiting for a green day or two before purchasing. Not purchasing on a day when it is down 4%.

    What do you think is going to happen when electronic trading opens on Sunday evening?

    I'll give you a clue: the price is going down.

    Cry Me A River
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:04pm

    FIRST FLAT COT IN WEEKS 4-12-2013

    The commercials may have signaled that their trend of covering shorts into falling silver prices could be finished.

    Today, their net shorts as measured in oz. of silver have shown, for the first time in many weeks, A FLAT COT where they have dropped to 55%.. This is a 1% drop from 56%, last week, of the total comex silver inventory.

    It's difficult to see the most recent flat area on the chart, but this is extremely close to the all time low since I've been recording these numbers which occurred on 7-2-2012 when this percentage reached 40.83%. But more importantly, they've slowed their relentless short covering to a point where they may be ready to turn the tide toward shorting into rising prices.

    I must conclude silver prices will probably be higher next week. I think I've said this one million times-we need to see the commercials ADD shorts; as this would signal that they feel they can no longer pull the rug out of prices to manipulate them lower. We may see a COT report next week that shows this.

    I've also said this one million times, I suspect as I indicated, that we should see a rally to higher prices if this is a signal for a turn, a retest attempt followed by a higher low in the commercial net shorts as a percentage of comex inventories over the next few weeks. This should be followed by a significant rally.

    The commercials may have signaled that their trend of covering shorts into falling silver prices pertaining to registered comex silver inventories is coming to an end. Higher prices are expected next week

    It's difficult to see the most recent flat area on the chart, but this is extremely close to the all time low since I've been recording these numbers which occurred on 7-2-2012 when this percentage reached 162%. But more importantly, they've also slowed their relentless short covering pertaining to the registered category.

    Their net shorts as measured in oz. of silver have actually risen to a level of 218% of the total comex silver inventory this week from 213% last week. This represents a considerable drop from a high of 875% reached on 11-27-2012, and has now bottomed. I'm concluding silver prices will probably rise next week.

    From: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

    MrGuboci
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:10pm
    The Green Manalishi
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:10pm

    UK/London Turdites

    I've got 2 spare tickets to the UK Investor Show at ExCel tomorrow morning 9am.

    Anyone interested in meeting up in the morning before the show PM me? I'll be leaving here at silly O'Clock in the morning.

    Includes Dominic Frisby and Nigel Farage.

    https://www.ukinvestorshow.com/speakers.html

    Agenda Main Hall:

    10 AM Opening Remarks
    10.10 - 11 AM Nigel Wray & Nick Leslau
    11 - 11:45 AM Tom Winnifrith with bear raider Lucian Miers
    11.45 - 11:55 AM The short debate: Is AIM doomed. Tom Winnifrith vs Richard Poulden
    11.55 - 12:40 PM Comedian and gold guru Dominic Frisbey on gold
    12.40 PM LUNCH
    1.40 - 2:35 PM – The Traders session: Clem Chambers, Alpesh Patel, Zak Mir, Evil Knievil and John Piper
    2:35 - 3.15 PM – Christopher Booker on “The Margaret Thatcher I know... nearly always right in the end.”
    3:15 PM TEA
    3.45 - 4:30 PM – Mark Slater
    4.30 - 5:15 PM – Nigel Farage MEP
    5.15 PM – Farewell, until next year

    Agenda Break Out Rooms:

    Room One 1.40 PM Amanda Van Dyke on mining juniors
    Room One 2.30 PM Mike Hall on alternative investments – introduced by Adnan Siddique

    2/3 1.40 Roger Lawson of ShareSoc on tackling useless boards, introduced by Ranji Devadason

    4 1.40 Leyshon
    4 2.05 @UK
    4 2.30 Horizonte
    4 2.55 Nostra Terra – introduced by Carrie Lun

    15/16 1.40 Fastnet Oil & Gas
    15/16 2.05 UK Innovation
    15/16 2.30 Kryso
    15/16 2.55 Regency Mines introduced by Steve Moore

    17 1.40 Leni Gas & Oil
    17 2.05 Victoria Oil & Gas
    17 2.30 Forbidden
    17 2.55 Noricum introduced by Robert Sutherland Smith

    Deaglán
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:12pm

    Beep beep beep

    This shit has got to cause lots of weak hands to panic.

    The sale continues as far as I´m concerned.

    I´ll spend the weekend shining up the truck so next week I can hear that beautiful beep beep beep.

    Got some silver during the week, thankfully I held out on the gold. Lets see how bad this gets.

    "Time marches on, yesterday is dead and gone"

    Kerbouchard
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:13pm

    Today

    I'm sorry, but I just clicked onto Kitco and see that au is now down $75!

    And I laughed out loud. Been there, done that.

    Fundamentals are fundamentals. I'm not in the least bit concerned.

    Perhaps I'm completely deluded?

    But I do feel for those who've been underwater these past months/years and may have to sell. Timing is a bitch.

    Long and strong -- trolls notwithstanding.

    God is not mocked, and to everything there is a time and season.

    Keep the faith.

    Humbly,

    The K-man

    P.S. Without Santa, Turd, and many others holding my hand over the past thirteen years, I'd be a wreck. And for you Turdites who've been ragging on Sinclair, I distinctly remember his call for $1,650 being made almost ten years ago. That he missed this prognostication by mere months, and has since been subjected to smart-alecky, Monday-night quarterbacking, is a testament to the unreliability of human nature and the average person's lack of principle.

    edge Dr G
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:14pm

    @DrG

    In all due respect, I recall you thinking the bottom was falling out last june and selling(or at least sounding as if you were selling) a good portion of your stack around $27 in order to "buy it back cheaper" how'd that work out for you? I'm sure you ended up paying up for replacing that portion you sold. The short trade in silver is ultra crowded right now ULTRA, it may go lower, but it will be quick and sharp and rebound quickly.

    There is a lot of cryin and whinin on this board which tells me the bottom is very near, very...MONDAY will be the bottom UNLESS a war breaks out this weekend, then it was today. IMHO It's all paper unless it's not.

    dudestacker
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:17pm

    Shhhhh.

    I will have no comment at this time nor any time in the next week.

    Please...I beg all of you who are reading this: Please keep it quiet. Keep the cart positioned behind the horse and take nothing for granted. Just lay low.

    silver66
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:17pm

    My visit with Santa

    Here are some of my thoughts and observations on my visit with Santa yesterday. There is much to convey and it won’t be done all today. I have left office early and am at home watching the masters in HD and then off to rink. This is my favorite tournament of the year(go Boom Boom)

    This is what I think I heard and my take on meeting. Does not mean that it is what happened!

    The room started to fill up around 12:45 for the 2 o’clock start. A couple of observations, the crowd was older, very white, which surprised me in Toronto and although you can never judge a book by its cover, lookedaffluent.

    Jim came in about quarter to 2 and went up to podium and started to speak, 35 minutes later he stopped and took questions. I left at 6 and he was still going strong

    Jim indicated his goal was to help protect our wealth and to give us options

    1st Theme

    Cyprus is the template—GET OUT of System

    It was a mistake; IMF jumped the gun, hence why Legardes apartment was raided and thourghly search by police next day on 20-year-old charges. A message was sent.

    North Europe looks down nose at South Europe and has contempt for Russians. Russian mob is lower than low in their eyes.

    Jim said make a list of Cyprus banks and follow obits for next year. Russians never forget and hold grudges for generations

    Canada, USA and Bof E have all written bail in into law. It is there for a reason.

    He wants everyone to get off the balance sheet of the banks. Brokerage accounts are held in street name and if bank goes down then your account is now open for theft as you are an unsecured creditor to bank. See MF Globe and Peregrine as proof.

    Many questions from older attendees seemed to me to have cognitive dissonance. They logically understood what Jim was saying Bail-in but emotionally could not bring themselves to grasp that it could happen in Canada.

    See ZH article

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-11/carmen-reinhart-no-doubt-our-pensions-are-screwed

    Derivatives sold from 1991 to 2007 are the problem and all money has gone to deal with those problems. Bernanke is not stupid and did right thing in 2008.

    Obscene wealth was made by people in bail out , millionaires became billionaires. Bail out was to protect profits of derivatives that were winners by powerful interests.

    2nd Theme

    new currency system 2020

    basket of currencies with a necklace of gold around it’s neck. Said this on three different occasions. I am going to follow up with him on this. He referenced freegold and how they are the closest to the idea but not quite there.

    A lady asked several questions and her last was point blank. “How do you know 2020 is the date”

    Jim’s answer I think blew everyone away

    He said I am of the Goldman lineage. I ran in the circles of the people that own the world and still converse with them and this is what they told me. They own Washington (sidebar, grand caymen has not been attacked for its banking laws , cause that’s where Washington hides it money)

    Watch countries that currently do not MTM their gold reserves. Currently it is about 50/50 world wide who do and do not MTM.

    When the countries that don’t start to and you get to 80% with them then that is signal that new currency will be brought in

    He does not think Yuan will be gold backed

    He said several times Silver will do just fine, he looks at world thru gold coloured glasses.

    Gold will preserve purchasing power and silver too , maybe some more torque to silver than gold

    Not sure if this is coherent to any of you but makes sense to me.

    Remember this is one mans views on world

    Silver66

    achmachat
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:21pm

    dudestacker

    yep.. let's sit back and watch for a while

    ferretflat Cry Me A River
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:22pm

    LCS Junk Box

    For years I have visited the LCS and browsed the Junk box. I have retrieved dozens of onzas, prospectors, sunshines, collectibles, and even a number of spotty ASEs at $1.25 over spot. On my last 3 trips to the LCS the box has contained exactly one Oz of silver.

    zman
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:26pm

    As crazy as it sounds,  what

    As crazy as it sounds, what would be wrong with going long in some of big banks BAC, C, WFC, ect. They have been the biggest underperformers since the 2009 bottom, yet they are outperfoming the market the last 6 months.

    Since they are getting paid 100 cents on the dollar for every bad asset on their balances sheets with billions of free money from the Fed, why not? What other industry is getting such a free ride?

    I think the trade would have a long way to go, at least until the Fed stops QE, which is never.

    Silver_investor
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:29pm

    Debt ceiling debate

    Please forgive me if someone has already mentioned this today, but I just remembered that the debt ceiling "suspension" ends May 19, 2013--a little over a month from now. Under the "No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013", the debt ceiling must be raised on May 19th. This may help the prices of gold and silver, as it has in the past. But, with the manipulation of the metals now worse than ever, it's hard to say what will happen. But this does give me hope.

    Odin
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:31pm

    @DrG

    Congrats. You completely missed the point I was making. I'm saying that even if the price goes down after buying, it won't matter, because all along I have been buying PHYSCIAL at artificial PAPER prices... So in the end, it a'int going to matter slick ;-)

    ...oh and smart investors/traders know to not to make judgment calls like "the price is going down on __" with 100% certitude...just saying... That being said, Edge's post saying that your calls have been wrong in the past does not surprise me...

    ctob
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:41pm

    Man I got head faked pretty bad

    I had said I thought there would be another phase to this raid and had held out from previous lows last week. I figured it was a 2-3 days so after the ramp up before I went ahead and bought. I was right about the 2nd phase but wrong about time frame of delay. Cost me about $2 per ounce. Sometimes it sucks being right. Not a big deal money wise for me, but the fact that I could have called it right if I had waited 2 more days is what stings.

    That_1_Guy
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:43pm

    @ silver66

    You the man....man.

    You the man. JS the rouge Goldman.....who woulda though..but makes sense.

    Enjoy the masters and rink.

    GUY

    Irene
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:43pm
    That_1_Guy
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:45pm

    Dont worry COTB

    If I woulda just had the winning lottery numbers last week I would have won yesterday..and would be sitting on a throne of gold and silver right now. ;)

    Cheer up....

    Im bummed i missed too. Whoops, i dont play the lottery...but, if I did..and I had the numbers in advance....well thats a different story.

    GUY

    ctob
    Apr 12, 2013 - 4:50pm

    Doesn't bother me much

    Nah doesn't bother me much. Not the first time won't be the last. You take your lumps and move on. Hindsight is 20/20.

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