Saturday Gold

Sat, Apr 6, 2013 - 12:06pm

I don't know if the old week has ended or if the new week has already begun.

Let start with a reprint of my CoT comments from yesterday. As expected, the report was extraordinarily bullish, particularly in silver. Does this mean that the decline is over and silver won't be going any lower? Of course not. Maybe it won't end until the LargeSpecs are actually net short? Regardless,the metals are once again poised for a major move, back toward the top of the 18-month range, at a minimum.

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 5, 2013 - 3:06pm.
Let's start with gold as it went exactly as we assumed it would. For the week, price fell $21 and OI fell by 2,500. However, those bland numbers belie some incredible turnover.

On the drop to Tuesday's close of $1576, the Large Specs added 12,300 net new shorts. Likely almost all of this came on Tuesday when OI surged by 10,000 while price fell $25. The Small Specs also added a net 3700 new shorts. And of course this allowed The Gold Cartel to cover a net 16,000 shorts. This drops their net short ratio back to a bullish 2.04:1.

Now silver...

For the 4-day week, silver was down a whopping $1.42 while its OI rose by 4,200. On Tuesday, when silver closed at $27.25, here's how things looked. (Keeping in mind that on Wed and Thu, total OI rose by another 1500 contracts to a multi-year high of 157,212.)

The Large Specs which, just eight short weeks ago were long 42,499 and short 6,588, are now long 38,200 and short 30,055. That's a net change of 27,766 contracts or a shortage of nearly 139,000,000 ounces of silver or about 20% of total global production this year...all shorted by the Large Specs over the past eight weeks. It is important to remember here that The Large Specs don't actually have any silver to deliver, they are simply short the paper. With this week's changes, the LargeSpec net long ratio falls to a has-to-be-a-misprint level of just 1.27:1.

The SmallSpecs got in on the act, too. They added 600 longs but also added 2900 new shorts for a net reduction of their long position of 2300.

And so we turn to the silver commercials. The gross long position which, as a reminder has almost always fluctuated between 30,000 and 40,000 for as long as I can recall, grew again this week. For the reporting period, the Comm gross long position grew by another 2,300 contracts to a record 57,847. As of last night, it may have reached to near 60,000. All of the Spec selling allowed JPM et al to cover some more of their naked shorts. This week they covered another 3200, bringing their total position down to 76,350. Most importantly, the Silver Cartel net short ratio has fallen to 1.32:1. This is the lowest I've ever seen, exceeding the low of 1.34:1 on 12/27/11. That record low marked a bottom and silver proceeded to rally from $26 to $37 in nine weeks.

I SIMPLY CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH HOW EXTRAORDINARILY BULLISH THIS COT REPORT IS. We are clearly on the cusp of a major rally. Did it begin today? Maybe. Will it begin next week or the following week? Perhaps. All I know is that it will begin...and soon. Be ready.

So you're probably wondering where how the charts look after yesterday's move. They're not too shabby. We can't declare victory and a bottom just yet...but...if these rallies can extend back above the lows made right after the first of the year, these charts are going to begin to look very, very bullish. Not to get the cart too far ahead of the proverbial horse but the 50-day MA for June gold is at $1614.10 and the 50-day in May silver is $29.51. It's not going to be easy but if we can get through there, too...well, it's going to be fun.

And here's an interesting chart. I recall seeing some blatant SPIN this week that argued that the reason gold was declining was a rise in real interest rates. This is patently that matters. Also when everyone from Smart Money to The O'Reilly Factor is claiming that gold is dead, you know that the short side is overcrowded and due for a religious experience.

That said, look at this chart of the 10-year note. You can plainly see why The Bernank has that goofy grin on his face this morning. The 10-year is now well above the 132 level, which is where it was when QE∞ was announced and then confirmed 90 days later.

Just a couple of other things that don't at first glance seem connected. First, while scanning the headlines over coffee this morning, I came across this on Drudge. And check this quote: (A) senior administration official said that wealthy taxpayers can currently “accumulate many millions of dollars in these accounts, substantially more than is needed to fund reasonable levels of retirement saving.” Yikes!! I can't even begin to describe how:

  1. Frightening this is that some bureaucrat can decide what is a "reasonable level of retirement savings".
  2. Frightening at how unbelievably freaking stupid, naive and foolish this is.

And then there's the continuing saga of the N-Kos and Lil Kim. As you know, yesterday the N-Kos recommended that all foreign embassies withdraw their personnel by April 10 because "after that date, they cannot guarantee their safety". Lil Kim also drove another missile over to his coastal launch site, Cape Kimchi. The U.S. then upped that bet and raised him some B-1 bombers to Guam. What in the name of Charles Cabell is going on here?

I have a theory. I think the O'Bottom regime is deliberately poking at Lil Kim. The Kim family has been a thorn in the side of just about everyone for over 60 years. Lil Kim, as a third generation ruler, appears to be no more reasonable and likeable than either is Dad or his Papa. So it appears to me that O'Bottom is taking a gamble similar to his strategy with Egypt and Libya. Namely, "let's sponsor the ending of the current regime and then maybe, just maybe, the next leadership will be a little easier to deal with".

So, knowing tha Lil Kim is just 28 years old and likely reviled by all of the top military brass in N-Ko...Maybe a military disater, even a little one, will be enough to prompt a coup that replaces Kim with someone/something more "reasonable"? I've thought about this for days and that's the best I can come up with. Because otherwise it makes no sense. Why paint the little fucker into a corner and leave him with no options other than some type of manuver to "save face"?

If I'm right, then something is indeed going to happen in the next 7-10 days. The question then becomes, will it be "small" and contained? Or will the unintended/unexpected consequences of war FUBAR all of O'Bottom's plans?

And now you're asking yourself, what the devil does this have to do with the IRA story?

Incompetence. Plain and simple. Whether it's dealing with the "financial crisis", crafting a budget, managing the debt, the Arab name it. The overriding element of five years of O'Bottom is incompetence. So now here they are, attempting to massage and manage a removal of the ruling regime of North Korea. What do you think the chances are that it doesn't go as smoothly as hoped/planned??? Not good.

On that happy note, I'm going to call it a week. Have a great weekend and enjoy some down time. Come back Monday, though, with your game face on. See you then.


p.s. If it looks like "reads" are down for my posts, trust me they're not. We removed the tracking system that works with Google Analytics in the hopes of easing some of the burden on the servers. The result is what looks like about a 50% reduction in accumulated "reads". No biggie.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 6, 2013 - 3:54pm

Is a 90% Mortality Rate From An EMP a Reasonable Estimate?

In this paper I want to defend the thesis that a high altitude EMP would likely result in 75-90% mortality. Let us begin by asking, "What is the mortality rate in a population that has zero food?" The answer is 100%. So, if we had a situation where the population had no food, we would expect 100% mortality. This is not speculation. In the case of the US the food supply is produced by 2% of the population. It is produced on farms and trucked hundreds or thousands of miles to market. For the most part the consumers have little to no ability to acquire food in any other way than to purchase it. So, in the event that the money supply is disrupted or the transportation system is disrupted, these people will have no access to food other than supplies that happen to be on hand. Most people have less than two weeks supply of food.

Previously I posted an article expressing the view that the US is extremely vulnerable to an EMP, an EMP is a virtual certainty, and when we get one, the 2008 EMP Commission estimated the US will experience a 75-90% mortality. In response, an article was written that said this was alarmist. Later it was admitted such was possible, but we should focus now on making our lives the best we can today and not worry so much about the future. That is probably good advice for something that is very, very unlikely to happen such as "when worlds collide", but in this case, a civilization ending EMP is virtually assured and with preparation it does not have to be fatal. Therefore, if you wish to live, you would be advised to make preparations.

There are two kinds of EMPs. One is a solar flare of extreme magnitude. There have been several of these in modern history. A notable one was in 1921 and another one was in 1859 (the Carrington Event) If we had an event comparable to the Carrington Event, probably the grid would fail on global basis, because the 1859 event lasted seven days and started fires and burned down telegraph wires when all they had was low voltage DC powered lines. Since these events occur on a periodic basis, physics says we should experience one of these again at some unknown time, but with predictable results.

The other kind of EMP is manmade such as the effects obtained from a nuclear detonation at high altitude that make use of the Compton Effect (E1, E2) and RF magnetic field radiation (E3) effects. Since a nuclear EMP event is controlled by man, it would be the one used by an enemy that wished to inflict maximum harm on the US, and it is the one on which I wish to focus my remarks.

In the video link referenced here, we can see the effects of an EMP on civilian vehicles. Since an EMP at 150-300 miles above the central US would result in the destruction of the vehicle electronics in almost all of North America and bring down the commercial grid, an EMP would result in destruction of the ability to transport, store, process and grow food. The tractors, trucks and refrigerators that make it possible for 2% to feed 98% would no longer function. Therefore, in an EMP event, 98% of the population would find itself immediately cut off from any renewable food supplies.

The effect on the electric grid would be almost instantaneous. The electric lines would act as giant antenna and feed an enormous electric spike into the grid. The rise time of the spike is so rapid, that it blows past circuit breakers on power strips as if they were not there, and fries any electronics connected to the grid including power control systems and generators. Besides being instantly fried, in some cases the arcing of power equipment would start fires that would be uncontrollable. Another effect is that electronics not connected to the grid, such as cell phones, would themselves act as antennas and the induced high voltages on the devices would burn out the electronic circuits. Almost anything that was line of sight to the burst and that was not underground or in a Faraday cage would probably cease to function. Hence, in an instant, virtually all civilian communications, transportation, construction, command, control, entertainment, and surveillance systems would be permanently destroyed. These devices exposed to an EMP would no longer function, even if power was restored.

In the early 1970s a Russian atmospheric test resulted in a power station 700 miles from the test site accidently burning to the ground from the surge transmitted by the power lines acting as an antenna. On July 9, 1962, a high-altitude nuclear test named Starfish Prime was conducted by the United States military 250 miles above Johnston Island in the Pacific Ocean. Its unexpected electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects caused disruptions in the electrical grid (lights out) and failure of electronic equipment in Honolulu 700 miles away. The EMP shut down long-distance telephone calls and disabled three satellites in low earth orbit. This was in the days of the much more robust analog electronics. Today's super miniaturized microelectronics are much, much more vulnerable. Because of the effects observed from Starfish Prime and other tests, beginning in the late 70s the Air Force built a wooden trestle EMP test stand. The Air Force conducted EMP trestle tests on aircraft electronics until the 1990s.

I worked in the AF Avionics Laboratory during that time, and had access to unclassified results from EMP trestle testing. In all the reports I read, I did not see a single test that did not result in some damage to military hardened electronics, even in systems ready for deployment. There is also a more modern report (since censored) of a US destroyer that was rendered dead in the water by a Chinese EMP attack. The US has also developed and fielded EMP weapons. Permission was denied for their use in Iraq because their effects were deemed too destructive to the civilian infrastructure. Hence, the effects attributed to EMPs are not merely theoretical, but have been experienced and used in practice. A nuclear device is not the only means of generating a substantial EMP.

Ok, so the trucks wouldn't run after an EMP, but people have farmed for thousands of years. Wouldn't they just grow their own food? There are 4-9 months of the year when produce could be locally available. However, with the regular food supply cut off, hordes of hungry people could be expected to quickly scavenge local produce fields, even before they were ready to harvest, assuming they were already planted at the time of the EMP event. If they were not planted, they would not be, for the trucks and tractors that make large scale farming possible would not roll. In the initial period of 1-12 months farming/gardening would probably be impossible because of the roving bands of starving people and predatory gangs. Because of the magnitude of an event where the grid permanently went down across North America, we could expect little to no outside assistance. Therefore, until the situation stabilized from the die off of the unsustainable portion of the population, the surviving population could not expect a resupply of food, even if they had the skills, resources and seeds necessary to grow food crops. What you have in the first year after an EMP event, then, is a situation where for most people, there is no food, and as we postulated, this population would experience 100% mortality.

There was an event of magnitude comparable to an EMP in Europe during the Black Death of the 1300s when 30-60 percent of the population died. Some have argued that since the low end estimate for EMP related deaths is the high end of the Black Plague deaths, the 75-90% mortality rate is simply alarmist. However, one needs to remember that the Black Death happened at a time when most people raised their own food, which is not now the case. Also, the events stimulated by the Plague caused a reduction of the rural European population by 90% which is indeed comparable to an EMP event. Today, very few grow their own food, and with a breakdown of societal infrastructure resulting in no food or water in the cities, the inhabitability of the cities would cause the mortality rate to be higher.

Besides personal stores, the only other sources of food would be food warehouses, stalled trucks, foraging, preppers' stashes, fishing, and hunting. These sources would supply some of the people, but would be depleted by over-harvesting until a die off reduced the population to a level where it would support the number of scavengers surviving. Since people who have no food cease to be effective after 2 weeks of not eating, significant die off of the population could be expected in the first 30-60 days following an EMP. People on meds and life support (oxygen, insulin, pacemakers, IVs, etc) would die within seconds to a few days. Older people are more at risk and without modern medical care, their mortality rate would be very high.

People who depleted sources available from the abandoned supply chain, hunting, fishing and scavenging would die within 30 days of depletion. They will receive little and probably no outside assistance. Their mortality rate will be 100%. Those lucky enough or prepared enough to have caches that will last 12 months or more can expect to be attacked in force by desperately hungry people and marauders. Gardening will be virtually impossible in the first year because of the marauders. Consequently, anyone without sufficient food to last at least a year will end up with no food and will have a mortality rate of 100%. The unknown in the calculation is how extensive marauders will be and how many people will have a year's supply of food and water. The Mormons require a year's supply for their members, and probably large numbers of them will survive the crash if they can defend their stashes. The State Department estimates that gangs of marauders of up to 400 will form, and these gangs will obviously pose a substantial threat to small communities and isolated homesteads.

From the evidence presented, we see that the estimate from the 2008 EMP Commission Report of 75-90% (the part about the 75-90% mortality has now been censored) mortality in America resulting from an EMP from a single burst above central North America is realistic. The corollary question is, how likely is an enemy EMP event? As General Eugene Habiger, former Commander-in-Chief, U. S. Strategic Command, has said, "It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when."

Right now, other nations around the world are working feverishly to develop EMP weapons. The following is from a statement by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry to the United States Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security on March 8th, 2005….

Vincent Pry wrote:

Russian and Chinese military scientists in open source writings describe the basic principles of nuclear weapons designed specifically to generate an enhanced-EMP effect, that they term "Super-EMP" weapons. "Super-EMP" weapons, according to these foreign open source writings, can destroy even the best protected U.S. military and civilian electronic systems.

But it is not just Russia and China that have been developing "Super-EMP" weapons. According to Newsmax, it is believed that North Korea may have tested a "Super-EMP" weapon back in 2009….

Newsmax wrote:

North Korea’s last round of tests, conducted in May 2009, appear to have included a "super-EMP" weapon, capable of emitting enough gamma rays to disable the electric power grid across most of the lower 48 states

Remember, all it would take is one strategically placed EMP attack to wipe out this nation.

But what about motive? Is there anybody evil enough or crazy enough to do such a thing? Consider this. There are some curious granite stones in Georgia known as the Georgia Guidestones These Stonehenge like stones are engraved with ten objectives written in 12 different languages. The very first objective is to reduce world population to a stable level of 500 million. It cost several million dollars to have the Georgia Guidestones produced and installed. Persons of ordinary means could not have accomplished what was done, nor would they have had any desire to do so. Desiring 93% of the population dead is evil. Those stones are objective evidence that rich, evil men wish, and since they spent millions of dollars to state a warning, presumably are planning, the demise of 93% of the world's population. Now, this evidence can be swept aside as "alarmist" and "Chicken Little", but it is objective evidence that does in fact exist. One can rationally assess the evidence and conclude that a substantial, existential threat does in fact exist in an EMP, with a high likelihood that fanatics (Mahmoud Ahmajinedad and the 12th Imam, Kim Jong-un, an irrational pessimist, ) will employ it against what they consider to be the Great Satan, or one can ignore it and place oneself at mortal risk when the likely inevitable happens.

The EMP issue does not have to be an end of the world scenario if one has made preparation including self-defense, access to water, and a year's food supply. Further, this issue is not one that we might just possibly face years from now. This existential threat obtains at this very hour, and we would be well advised to take action to prepare, as an EMP is the low hanging fruit for any adversary.



BTW, if I am wrong, I have a bunch of wasted stuff. If the contrarists are wrong, they just bet their life and lost.

Apr 6, 2013 - 4:01pm

Hang loose

Hang loose this WE, Brothers and Sisters

A couple of important weeks now ahead of us - stay safe


Apr 6, 2013 - 4:04pm

for the apocalypse

You could flash-fry a buffalo in 40 seconds
DayStar ctob
Apr 6, 2013 - 4:10pm


I cited two cases where EMP effects were observed over 600 miles from the test. Furthermore, EMP effects from the sun are observed 93,000,000 miles from the source. Why then would you state that 300 Mile radius on an EMP would be amazingly incredible when it is actually observed? The Kirkland trestle tests were real world observations of the effects of EMPs that in most tests rendered the weapon system ineffective. How can you say that is silly? Are all of these reports and test results complete fabrications? There is a video showing EMP test results on a civilian vehicle. Is that silly? Do you have comparable tests to back your claims that EMPs are paper tigers? Is it not meaningful that the US, China, and Russia have developed and deployed EMP weapons? Would they have done that if development testing showed the technology was ineffective?



Apr 6, 2013 - 4:23pm

Population loss and the Black Death: Best estimate 1/3

The Black Death

Population Loss

Froissart's estimate of the population loss was about right, which is ironic because Froissart wildly exaggerated numbers in almost all his accounts. But the best of many revised estimates still put the overall population loss in Europe at about one- third.

This bears re-stating. The plague came to Europe in the fall of 1347. By 1350 it had largely passed out of western Europe. In the space of two years, one out of every three people was dead. Nothing like that has happened before or since.

These general numbers disguise the uneven nature of the epidemic. Some areas suffered little, others suffered far more. Here are some examples.

Between 45% and 75% of Florence died in a single year. One-third died in the first six months. Its entire economic system collapsed for a time.

In Venice, which kept excellent records, 60% died over the course of 18 months: five hundred to six hundred a day at the height.

Certain professions suffered higher mortality, especially those whose duties brought them into contact with the sick--doctors and clergy. In Montpellier, only seven of 140 Dominican friars survived. In Perpignan, only one of nine physicians survived, and two of eighteen barber-surgeons.

The death rate at Avignon was fifty percent and was even higher among the clergy. One-third of the cardinals died. Clement VI had to consecrate the Rhone River so corpses could be sunk in it, for there was neither time nor room to bury them.

Long-term population loss is also instructive. Urban populations recovered quickly, in some cases within a couple of years, through immigration from the countryside because of increased opportunities in the cities. Rural population though, recovered itself slowly, for peasants left their farms for the cities.

Hardest hit were special groups, such as the friars, who took a couple of generations to recover. In many areas, pre-plague population levels were not reached until the 1500s; in a few, not until the 1600s.

This is one reason why the Black Death marks a dividing line between the central Middle Ages, with medieval culture in full bloom and at its greatest strength, and the later Middle Ages. The later period was one of chronically reduced population.
Apr 6, 2013 - 4:26pm

Criminal Globalists

I love the criminal globalists steering part, the conspiracy part, Im sure many here, went all in, hook, line and sinker. THEN .... "if someone comes to my house, says I got a gun, and said Im going to blow your head off, THAT is it right there, THEY SHOULD BE HIT." That was refreshing ALEX JONES. ;) Its amazing that self-preservation is AT LEAST still alive and well. So, it comes down to pre-emptive US strikes, is justified now? given the history, and distal location, I would come down on a wait and see approached. But that's me, and my opinion only, other may have a different take, false flag, etc. But its podcasts like those that touches nerves, across the board, lightening up the boards. Whatever way you come down, personally, its all good, at least you all are thinking, a good thing. Unlike Saddam, he has yet to use the bomb on his own. So far, just ranting. Prepare, of course, dereliction of duty otherwise.


1) Worst totalitarian regime in history.

2) they have the bomb though distal in local

3) There is a nut in charge, as usual.

4) history of barking loud to gain the goodies

5) China and Russia calls for NK to chill out.

many more? Im sure there is. But Ill go with 3 and 4, and call on the US for no pre-emptive strikes.

Just one man's opinion, I could be right, way right, reactionary.

next post

the feedback to biological exponentiation without the tools to sustained that growth. ;) good post

Apr 6, 2013 - 4:27pm


El-Erian: Fed Is Necessary But Not Sufficient

Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian reacts to today's (Friday's) jobs numbers and talks about Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Apr 6, 2013 - 4:32pm

Stacking some RMB a good idea for ourselves?

RMB to rise to under 6 against US dollar: economist

  • 2013-04-06

Renminbi banknotes. (Photo/Xinhua)

The renminbi is expected to appreciate to below 6 against the US dollar by the end of this year, a Chinese economist said Friday.

Cao Heping of Peking University said the yuan is expected to rise a further 3.2% this year, if the uptrend in the local economy continues.

The Chinese currency hit a 19-year-high on March 29, trading at 6.2089 against the dollar at one point. The yuan might even reach 5 against the dollar in the not-too-distant future, Cao told the state-run China News Service.

Cao said several forces are driving an increasingly stronger yuan. The continuous rise is in part a reflection of the trends in the nation's economy, where the export sector has rapidly improved since February.

The manufacturing sector's purchasing managers index, seen as an early signal for economic recovery, edged up to 50.9 in March, the highest since April 2012. The PMI indicates economic growth had stabilized after a relatively slow start to 2013, Cao said.

Secondly, the yuan has also strengthened due to a weakened dollar, a reflection of the slower-than-expected economic recovery in the United States, he said. Despite ecent growth in exports, latest data had shown a continued rise in joblessness in the US, along with the Fed's monetary easing policies contributing to a weaker dollar, Cao said.

The economist warned that the rise in the renminbi's value may also spark an influx of speculative capital.

Apr 6, 2013 - 4:34pm

US steps up security in cyber 'cold war'

US steps up security in cyber 'cold war'

  • 2013-04-06

The homepage of the website publishing the personal data of Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and others. (Internet photo)

The US president, Barack Obama, is to bolster cybersecurity forces with the creation of 40 teams after the social security numbers and personal data of his wife, Vice President Joe Biden and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton were released online by hackers.

The New York Times said the US and China are engaged in a new cold war in cyberspace, highlighting the growing threat to the internet security of the world's two largest economies. Former CIA director Michael Hayden has claimed that corporate espionage on the part of China has affected the US the most, while an unnamed internet security company noted that the PLA's Unit 61396 has made major progress in infiltrating the web network of key US infrastructures, though Beijing denies that the designated hacking unit exists.

The recent cyberattack that paralyzed the computer systems of several South Korean banks and broadcasting companies on March 20, wiping the hard drives of computers, showed the serious consequences of cyber warfare. Given the modern world's reliance on the internet, many countries have formed strategies on cyber security, while there have been reports about the US, China, Russia, UK, Japan, Iran and North Korea all increasing government budgets aimed at strengthening their ability to respond to threats.

Former US defense secretary Leon Panetta has warned that the country might be hit by a "cyber-Pearl Harbor," which could be as destructive as the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. However, cyber warfare is a double-edged sword as any attacks on the internet system of another country would in turn also weaken the attacker's own web system. Given the serious impact that cyber warfare could have on the world economy, the current cyber cold war between the US and China poses a significant threat to the stable development of the human race.

silver foil hat
Apr 6, 2013 - 4:38pm

Regarding the Nork issue ...major FF coming?

from the previous topic:


Can someone tell me how many were killed on 9/11.

Now look at the number of US troops deployed in the area of Guam.

"There ain't no coincidences."

Apr 6, 2013 - 4:39pm

You have to have a high

You have to have a high altitude nuclear explosion to get a wide range EMP. This is well known. Basically, if you get physical destruction from a nuke, you don't have to worry about the EMP.

The energy absorbed by a given device is proportional to the length of the antenna. This means that anything that is plugged in gets fried. Things that are not connected see much MUCH less heat. Tests done by the military showed that some cars will get shut off, but those that were turned off would restart with just another turn of the key.

Galearis ballyale
Apr 6, 2013 - 4:55pm

@ Turd re North Korea

In the age of delusion, we see the US engage in posturing....First question is about timing for N.K. to be rattling those sabres - why now? Or is it even worth wondering about; that poor cult/country may be experiencing as many trials with economic woes and even feeding itself that it too finds itself in need of distracting its population....If the US is confident about meeting this escalation with its own, we are looking at the same motives - the need for distraction....But IMO this is all backstopped by China who will not tolerate this little upstart cult country starting another war on its doorstep...I suspect the US knows this....



So It Goes
Apr 6, 2013 - 5:06pm

So here's the scoop - READ THIS

It's been bugging me why the US Mint is not updating the numbers of 2013 ASEs sold. Also they pulled forward the sales for the end of March to the first week of April.

Also I am bothered about why Tulving (the high volume low overhead dealer)

has no 90% or ASEs for sale.


1. Obtaining 90% silver has been "iffy" for more than one month.

That corellates with reports that the wait for 90% in quantity in the wholesale market is several months.

2. THE MINT IS RATIONING ASEs for the past month!!! Because of rationing, Hannes Tulving does not know what his markup will be.

I said that I was surprised because I had not heard about the US Mint rationing ASEs. He said he is not all surprised that I had not heard. My 0.02 - why would Mr. Tulving not tell the truth? If this is for real - the media is doing a great job keeping rationing hush-hush.

Hannes can buy from any of the primary dealers with US Mint. Monday the mint will announce to those dealers how many ASEs will available - then ASEs will be available for purchase.

I had no solid evidence that the physical silver market is so tight. These are data points to hang your hat on.

Stock up on physical Ag while you can!

القراع عصفور
Apr 6, 2013 - 5:07pm

field intensity is also the square root of the distance

so only directional pulse weapons will be effective at any distance. the U.S. military already has these. but the point is there is not an effective way yet to create a damaging EMP over a wide area. the sun has all the power it needs, and even it's directional blasts towards Earth only do damage if we take a direct hit.

Apr 6, 2013 - 5:11pm

@Turd . . . question . . .

As we now see, the COTs are extremely bullish. However, JPM has increased their net short position in silver to 96% as of a week ago. Butler will likely reveal the latest conditions some time next week.

JPM is fighting the tide. Other commercials are now net long, with JPM's position being short. What is your take on this particular situation? Obviously, nobody knows what will happen, but given your connections, I wondered if you have some info that would give guidance on this one piece of the puzzle. Thanks.

Apr 6, 2013 - 5:19pm

@Daystar re: EMPs . . .

Your findings seem correct. I am no expert, but I have read similar findings. I think ctob is thinking of the physically destructive force of hydrogen bombs when he speaks of a 6 mile area.

Solar flares coming from 93,000,000 miles away can do more harm than a man-made bomb 300 miles above the earth. Such is the power of Mother Nature. (not to deny that a man-made EMP would not be a problem--because it certainly could be a big problem.)

Apr 6, 2013 - 5:20pm

Thanks DayStar

FWIW - I think that was an excellent summary post you put together. The EMP threat is a very real concern, people who try to brush it off don't really have a full understanding of the subject. Yes there are ways to protect from EMP but to date those protections have not been implemented. Even if the effect is only 300 miles as someone stated, it is irrelevant. The power grid is completely inter-connected and the EMP will simply travel down the lines shutting down sub-stations and even power stations like a row of dominos. If it were to happen I believe that a more immediate problem would be the power stations, I do not have a solid number of nuclear power stations in the US but there are many stations and they do not respond well to being shut down without the proper shut down procedures being used. Not to mention all of the spent fuel rod storage facilities across the nation which require power to to run water pumps for cooling the spent fuel. After a few weeks, food and water may not be the biggest concern if radiation is leaking uncontrollably into the environment...

This is not a subject I like to dwell on but I will not allow ignorance to become bliss... Educate yourself and act appropriately.

Who really knows what will become of this NK issue... It is quite strange...

ancientmoney So It Goes
Apr 6, 2013 - 5:23pm

@So It Goes . . . thanks . . .

for sharing the mint/ASE rationing info.

At one time, the mint was essentially required to meet demand for ASEs and AGEs. Their directive was to first use newly, domestically mined silver and gold, and if unavailable, then other sources.

Recently, they changed it to read something like, the mint must meet the demand as "expected" by some bureaucrat--not actual demand! Talk about weasel-words. What if he/she decides demand is likely to be zero?

Sorry, we're sold out, see you next year!

Apr 6, 2013 - 5:28pm

The Obamas' 17-Day Vacation to Hawaii Cost Taxpayers $4,135,038

Video unavailable
Michelle's Last Four Years - Lest We Forget
Darth Smoker ctob
Apr 6, 2013 - 5:36pm

"Btw, by weight the most

"Btw, by weight the most potent poison known to man is nicotine"

You were doing so well

Apr 6, 2013 - 5:46pm

even if the threat is real

the extent of the threat is exaggerated as are the likely consequences.

The argument goes from the technology exists, a 300 mile radius, the entire American power grid and infrastructure down, a continent in flames and starving, to a deliberate attempt to annihilate 90% of the world population. This is a stretch, to put it mildly.

The example of the Black Death, cited yet again, truly the most devastating epidemic to hit mankind in recorded history, is given as a worst case scenario, the magic 90%, that is impossible to justify. A disease that was not in anyway understood that killed its victims often in as little as three days. That is a better thing to worry about - and even then, the worst example we can find and before there was any understanding of diseases per se, is a city that lost possibly as many as 75% of the population at the high end of the estimate. One city. And two hundred years later the population had recovered and the standard of living for most of Europe was much higher.

Apr 6, 2013 - 6:04pm


Are you thinking that the NK's are more likely to launch a Bird/Avian flu missile at the US?

القراع عصفور
Apr 6, 2013 - 6:04pm

anything it takes

to keep the thread from getting doomjacked this weekend works for me.

Apr 6, 2013 - 6:05pm

Santa: "...ignore me at your own severe personal risk."

April 6th, 2013

by Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

You must now act to exit the system

Bail-in (excerpt)

The US has already put in place bail-in-like powers as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act passed last year. The law includes a resolution scheme that gives regulators the ability to impose losses on bondholders while ensuring the critical parts of the bank can keep running.

Employees would be paid, the lights would stay on and derivatives contracts would not have to be instantly unwound.

Click here to read the full definition…

I have given my all to communicating the most important conclusions concerning your future financially and therefore on every level of life.

1. The operation to depress the gold price since the high was limited in time and is now behind us in terms of maximum pain for the bulls.

2. You must exit the system immediately because the Financial Nazis struck in Cyprus and now are moving directly towards you. This is simple fact, which if you ignore will be akin to the rise of the Nazis in Germany for those that knew they should, but never made the decision to leave that system.

The saddest fact is that many of you have thrown away your gold share and bullion insurances to the enriched Bankster bullies. You will now pay no attention to the need to exit the system. It is as if you are moths attracted to the flame of danger, and a sloth in that you are too lazy to take the actions required to protect yourselves. If you do not pay attention to this interview you are going to sacrifice all you have worked to accomplish in your lives. Most certainly those that are planning any form of retirement are right now dancing on the head of a needle.

Here are a few most important actions you, in my opinion, must take.

Government sponsored retirement tax preferential retirement programs must realize that one of the IMF plans in Cyprus was to nationalize all retirement programs. That means steal your retirement funds and assets, replacing them with some form of future paper assuming Cyprus returns to solvency.

You must, in my opinion, face whatever tax consequences there are and close your retirement programs. You are in clear and present danger of confiscation for questionable paper of whatever you hold in these type accounts. In a financial sense you are exactly what the ghettos in Germany and Poland were when they knew they should run but found any excuse possible not to do what was logically screaming at them to take action.

I am screaming at you from every pulpit I can find, with no personal benefit that you must take various actions and take them now. The fact the IMF, a major international body, had the audacity to demand that Cyprus nationalize all it pensioners and confiscate large percentages of the account values should be like a flashbulb going off in your eye to wake you from your sheeple slumber.

Bite the bullet.
Pay the tax.
Get your assets back.
Get out of the system.

The next action you must take is to get as far away from social media, and the use of credit cards for everything because you are painting a picture for the tax collectors that are going to go ballistic in their effort to collect your money from you in order to create revenue for governments going broke, or who are already hiding the fact they are broke.

It might take some effort, but stop your kids from informing the world of everything you and they have done on their social media. Computer based comparisons of family income to family activities will spur punitive audits when the apparent expenses are greater than the combined declared income.

The revenues services of every country are cranking up their computer search programs to grab information. You must stop so freely providing information, and maybe bragging on social media to make others think your lives are better than they really are. You must turn off the switch on your children use of social media if they are still under your authority. You must suggest to your emancipated children that they are foolish in informing the world of every little thing that do in search of 1000 friends on social media that would not really give a damn if they had a problem.

As an example of the new high tech snoops you are feeding with your credit cards and social media, research the following article.

IRS High-Tech Tools Track Your Digital Footprints – Yahoo! Finance

– Charting and analyzing social media such as Facebook
– Targeting audits by matching tax filings to social media or electronic payments
– Tracking individual Internet addresses and emailing patterns
– Sorting data in 32,000 categories of metadata and 1 million unique "attributes"
– Machine learning across "neural" networks
– Statistical and agent-based modeling
– Relationship analysis based on Social Security numbers and other personal identifiers

Click here to read the full article…

You must eliminate to the greatest degree possible all the agents between you and your assets.

There is no question that leaving assets in street name with your brokers and bankers is a financial death wish. The preferred way of holding shares of stocks has always been in your own name as physical certificates. The second best method, but much better than street name, is to hold your shares in Direct Registration. Do not expect your banks, brokers or companies you are invested in to make it easy to get out of their system. They will fight you all the way, but you have to insist on your rights regardless of their refusal or false dire warning of negative circumstances when you succeed in demanding your rights. Most of it exaggerations of what is really minutia when it comes to protecting yourselves.

Large credit balances in the form of banking accounts in CDs or in pure cash is now holding up a red blanket for the fighting confection bull of governments seeking your assets to hold off their financial collapse from their own spending sins of decades.

We can discuss in open forum, face to face or in writing later what to do with your assets but right now, as Braveheart cried, they must have FREEDOM from the system. There is much more that needs to be done, but what you have here is what should be called first priority. This should be viewed as call to action. I have not been too much off the mark on calling the developments not only of the past 12 years, but for the entirety of my successful career of more than 50 years in finance.

You ignore me at your own severe personal risk.

Apr 6, 2013 - 6:06pm
Apr 6, 2013 - 6:13pm

And now for something completely different - Keeping it lighter

Monty Python and the knights of the Holy Grail - Full Movie

Video unavailable

No. 42 "How Not To Be Seen"

Monty Python "How Not To Be Seen"
BIGNASTY treefrog
Apr 6, 2013 - 6:15pm

topless protest

Dangerus stuff,I'd suggest a hands on approach, I mean, that says a mouthful, uh I give up.

Mr. Fix
Apr 6, 2013 - 6:15pm

Doom doom doom doom

doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom

Apr 6, 2013 - 6:29pm

Soundgarden - Black Hole Sun


If you want potential newbs or whomever to think it's a doomsday cult it's on you.

Information is one thing but gleeful enjoyment is another.

Start a thread maybe because I'm sure it'll be wildly popular.

Soundgarden - Black Hole Sun
Fr. Bill George Clooney
Apr 6, 2013 - 6:30pm

The Black Death Helped Prompt the Reformation?

in the essay Xty provided, someone wrote:
Certain professions suffered higher mortality, especially those whose duties brought them into contact with the sick--doctors and clergy. ... The death rate at Avignon was fifty percent and was even higher among the clergy. One-third of the cardinals died.

I can't put my finger on the sources at this moment, but they reproduce the idea above with this slight elaboration: most of the parish priests died, effectively wiping out the clergy most closely engaged with the general population.

There were, obviously, some clergy who survived, and a good many of those did so because they were not closely engaged with the general population -- particularly in connection with the administration of last rites, performance of funerals (which became impossible to conduct in normal ways in many places), and other near-death pastoral service. Clergy who were looking out for No. One instead of the needs of their pitiful flocks became the foundation for rebuilding the clergy and the church leadership (bishops, cardinals, abbots) over the next century.

And what was the character of the ecclesiastical rank and file a century later? Well, it began to spawn all sorts of isolated voices calling for reformation. And only 50 years later ... well, now Martin Luther, John Calvin, and all the rest were railing against Tetzel and his gang of extortioners.

I've never seen this thesis developed academically, nor do I expect to see such a thesis propounded. It's simply too, too impolitic in the halls of academe (though this could change). Still, the way in which the Black Death wiped out the working clergy of the mid-14th century seems to me to have laid the foundation for the growth of a self-seeking, self-preserving, corrupt cadre of clergy which was -- to no one's ability to denity it -- the generator of the Protestant Reformation at the beginningof the 16th century


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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
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3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
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