New Highs Today

Fri, Apr 5, 2013 - 10:36am

No, not in gold or silver, of course. Nope, today saw a new high in the LSHI!

Of course, longtime Turdites know what the LSHI is but, if you need a refresher, you can find the definition on the Turdisms page.

Oh boy that was fun. Joe Kernen throws it to "Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department" and ole Hampton proceeds to drop a bomb on the Fort Lee crowd that left them speechless. He might as well have blasted some 14-megaton flatulence the way the room went silent in shock! The Shill looked like a deer in the headlights. Austen Goonsby went into SPIN overdrive and, of course, LIESman began to sweat profusely.

What does it all mean? The U.S. economy sucks and it ain't getting any better. Period. End of story.

And please, please, please...DO NOT BUY THIS GARBAGE ABOUT QE∞ ENDING. It can't and it won't.

And recall....and I say this with 100% certainty because I heard it with my own two ears...The Bernank said that:

  1. He might look at "slowing the asset purchases" when unemployment falls to 6.5%.
  2. He doesn't expect 6.5% unemployment until mid-2015, at the earliest.

And, regardless, it doesn't matter. QE∞ isn't about growth or jobs or anything economic. It's about providing a constant bid in the bond market so that rates stay at 2% or lower. Again...Period. End of story.

I could go into the specifics of the lousy data but why? You've probably read about it elsewhere and if you haven't, I can just give you this link. It pretty much tells you all you need to know:

So let's turn the discussion back to gold and silver. That they haven't exploded higher today is due to several factors, one that I'll show you below. Primarily, though, sentiment is lousy and momentum is all to the short side. Therefore, it's very difficult to turn things around in one day. IT WILL TURN. AND SOON. But it's always going to be unlikely that such a major shift can occur in one day. So, we wait. And we continue to buy at these deeply-discounted prices. And we add to our stacks.

Now check this out. This is outrageous! When the headlines hit at 8:30 EDT, gold prices immediately jumped as new orders hit and a few buy-stops were triggered. Then, while we were still between 8:30 and 8:31, gold sharply reversed and fell back by $14! There is only one way for this to have happened so quickly: A huge sell order was placed above the market BEFORE the news with the intent of capping any surprise rally and blunting the momentum. If you ever wanted direct evidence that the metals are manipulated and managed, there you have it. And sadly, it worked. Halting the rally at 1575 emboldened the shorts to drive it back down and now, as I type, gold is still just $1565 and silver is up a measly 19¢ and barely over $27.

So, here we sit. The metals should be screaming higher but there not. So what else is new? They should have been screaming higher since October. And though we've bounced a bit today, we are clearly still not out of the woods for a drop below $1525 and $26. Today's action helps and I suppose that The Washout is slightly less likely today than it was yesterday. But we must remain guarded and on the lookout.

The first thing gold needs to do is to hold these gains and close today back above $1560. It then needs to stay above $1560 next week. Still, though, it would be foolish to "call a bottom" before gold gets back above $1625. Silver, too. As you can see on the chart below, every time this year it has had a chance to form a bottom, it has failed. Now our first target is $28. Don't even think about getting excited/optimistic until that level is regained and, frankly, don't get confident that a bottom is in until price is back above $29.40. That's a long way from $27.

Anyway, the moral of the story remains the same: Just stay patient and keep adding to your stack. You are on the right side of this. The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment continues to unfold right before our eyes. Do not lose courage or be swayed by the day-to-day machinations of the Cartel-controlled "markets". They don't matter. All that matters is that you continue to add to your financial protection by the accumulation of physical precious metal. One more time...Period. End of story.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Juan Moment
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:38am

Impossible!!! 27 again!

Impossible!!! 27 again!

silver hog Juan Moment
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:39am

I hear you, I remember when

I hear you, I remember when it touched $31 and took off, I figured we'd never see 31 again. Man was I wrong!

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:41am

Major bond markets prices are

Major bond markets prices are up sharply. Peripherals mostly up - trouble at mill brewing ?

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:42am
silver hog
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:42am


Thanks Turd for all you do!

I was young during the Jimmy Carter era and SORT of understood things were bad then. Now that we are back to 1979 levels of labor participation, coupled with the mortgage crisis, I almost understand how bad it is out there.

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:43am


Nope a solid fourth...

Up here in the north Canada lost 54,000 jobs, loonie down under .98.

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:43am


And that is all!

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:45am

Lousy BLS? Treasuries surge? / BOJ QE at Work

April 5, 2013, 9:08 a.m. EDT

Treasurys surge as labor-market recovery slows

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasurys surged on Friday as the U.S. economy in March added the smallest number of jobs in 10 months, suggesting a slowing in the labor-market recovery.

The economy created 88,000 jobs last month, sharply lower than economist expectations of a gain of 190,000, according to a poll by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate edged lower to 7.6% from 7.7% but that reflected fewer people looking for jobs rather than a stronger labor market.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note 10_YEAR -3.91% fell 6 basis points to 1.7%. Those yields, which move inversely to prices, pushed below 1.7% immediately after the data. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Treasury investors have been scrutinizing the jobs report each month for insight into the health of the labor market, which the Federal Reserve has linked to the duration of its bond-buying program. The Fed buys $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage debt per month in order to keep short-term interest rates low, and has said it will continue the program until the jobless rate falls to 6.5%.

“The Fed isn’t going to be moving toward higher rates any time soon,” said Christopher Keith, senior vice president and fixed-income manager at Adviser Investments.

March’s surprise miss is a stark contrast to February’s positive jobs report. February gains were revised higher to 268,000 from 236,000, as were January’s jobs gains to 148,000 from 119,000, the Labor Department said Friday.

“This inconsistent pattern of jobs growth is pretty consistent with the slow growth economy that we’re in,” said Keith.

Yields on the 30-year U.S. bond 30_YEAR -4.45% fell 11 basis points to 2.87% and yields on the five-year note 5_YEAR -2.44% fell 2 basis points to 0.67%.

“Anyone who has been predicting the demise of the bond market is going to be in for a longer wait than they anticipated,” said Keith.

Mr. Fix
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:46am
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:47am

Twisted sister.  JASPER,

Twisted sister. But try getting 10K out of your bank of your own money and you get treated like a criminal. Yeah, that's normal. Give em a shotgun or some other bullshit and they give you 10K in credit. Twilight zone !!!

JASPER, Alabama (Reuters) - Thanks largely to the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jeffrey Nelson was able to put up a shotgun as down payment on a car.

Money was tight last year for the school-bus driver and neighborhood constable in Jasper, Alabama, a beaten-down town of 14,000 people. One car had already been repossessed. Medical bills were piling up.

And still, though Nelson's credit history was an unhappy one, local car dealer Maloy Chrysler Dodge Jeep had no problem arranging a $10,294 loan from Wall Street-backed subprime lender Exeter Finance Corp so Nelson and his wife could buy a charcoal gray 2007 Suzuki Grand Vitara.

All the Nelsons had to do was cover the $1,000 down payment. For most of that amount, Maloy accepted Jeffrey's 12-gauge Mossberg & Sons shotgun, valued at about $700 online.

In the ensuing months, Nelson and his wife divorced, he moved into a mobile home, and, unable to cover mounting debts, he filed for personal bankruptcy. His ex-wife, who assumed responsibility for the $324-a-month car payment, said she will probably file for bankruptcy in a couple of months.

When they got the Exeter loan, Jeffrey, 44 years old, was happy "someone took a chance on us." Now, he sees it as a contributor to his financial downfall. "Was it feasible? No," he said.

The Maloy dealership wouldn't discuss the loan. "I got nothing to say to you," an employee said.

At car dealers across the United States, loans to subprime borrowers like Nelson are surging - up 18 percent in 2012 from a year earlier, to 6.6 million borrowers, according to credit-reporting agency Equifax Inc. And as a Reuters review of court records shows, subprime auto lenders are showing up in a lot of personal bankruptcy filings, too.

It's the Federal Reserve that's made it all possible.


Apr 5, 2013 - 10:48am

answer for RRJJ at the end of the previous thread:

about those seized gold bars:

it's just a case of bad reporting.

that's not a ton of gold shown in those videos. A ton would be (for example) 1,000 kilo bars.

and... a ton of gold would be worth 50.8 million USD

somebody probably wanted to tell the reporters "a lot of gold" and might have used the expression "a ton of", and the moronic reporters just write it down as if it was 1,000 kg.

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:49am

It only gets stranger and

It only gets stranger and curiouser...

Get out of North Korea, now! ALL embassies told to evacuate staff from Pyongyang after madman dictator warns he 'cannot guarantee safety of foreigners'
  • Rogue communist state issued a deadline of April 10 to every government
  • Russia in 'contact with U.S., China and South Korea' about staff safety
  • About two dozen countries, including the U.K., have embassies in North Korea - although the U.S. has no diplomatic relations
  • N Korea has moved second Musudan missile with 3,000km range
  • South Korea deployed two warships with missile-defence systems

Big Dutch
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:51am


Oh yes, I was watching gold right as that happened. I decided months ago not to let myself even get excited until I see gold move up more that 1.5% in a day at least a couple days in a week. Gold has no problem going down more than 1.5% in a day, but up... No, they just don't allow that right now. It pisses me off to no end, but it is what it is.

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:53am

Yeah, its too bad there isn't much news fundamentals to

move the metals up.. Maybe some day....

When will the last straw break the camels back come? This is insane..

oh good, SLW is going red..!

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:54am

I'm working in it

Just give me a couple more weeks

Nick Elway
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:56am

The Real Stats on the US Economy

John Williams Shadow Stats keeps track of the numbers the way they used to be reported.

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:57am


Thanks for the reminder on SLW.

I need to check my options account and see if some funds cleared. Diving in a little deeper, but not too deep.

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:59am

@Turd Volume on that price dump

Any chance you can comment on the volume between 8:30 and 8:31? I bet it was huge.

I am sure you can display volume on the charts you post (others have). It is the missing link in a lot of the charts.


PS Thanks for the wonderful site. Best PM commentary in this interwebz thingy we all enjoy (for now).

Apr 5, 2013 - 10:59am

I think I am going to go shine my stack..

not much going on now. Yes would like to at least hold today. who knows, maybe a strong comex close would be very positive..

Since I now have about 5% of my savings in the metals I wonder if I should take a profit now or add another ounce?

I dont want to jinx it but hte metals are starting to breakout above its short term downtrend channel

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:01am

Needing a laugh?

This made me laugh out loud. "Manatee Gray"!!! At least they didn't call it "Goodyear Blimp Gray"...

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:01am


I hope that wasn't a euphemism.

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:05am

Remember that the bond market

Remember that the bond market was going to crash this year, not so, 10 year bond yields down to 1.69%.

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:07am

Thanks for the kind words, Z

And here's a chart from RJO. Unfortunately it's a 2-minute chart and the total volume doesn't appear to be accurate. But maybe it is. Hard to say.

Groaner George Clooney
Apr 5, 2013 - 11:08am


I meant to take the money and run..

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:08am

Yes, and remember...

The ridiculous story being floated earlier this week that gold was falling because real interest rates were rising? Classic SPIN.

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:08am


8 points or around 2% off early highs

while spx rallied

there is no evidence of a recovery. This is getting insane. Stay awake thru this because when all the markets revert back to the mean its going to be a doozie.

things must be far worse than even we here imagine for them to be perpetuating this fraud like this.

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:10am

Raid cotninues next week I say

In february there was a two day pause I think they will do this again. Thursday/fri pasue then start again mon/tues for a run at the 1525 target. 2 week duration pattern.

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:13am

if we had any kind of a media-

especially the sunday morning shows, they would keep pressing govt officials on the BS labor reports. At this point the media is showing its benign neglect and incompetence .

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:15am

This is too funny,, market is roaring back, miners

going red..


Hey Turd, I want to change my screen name from Groaner, to Venter

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:15am

manatees and the blimp

I think the Blimp is blue


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