New Highs Today

418
Fri, Apr 5, 2013 - 10:36am

No, not in gold or silver, of course. Nope, today saw a new high in the LSHI!

Of course, longtime Turdites know what the LSHI is but, if you need a refresher, you can find the definition on the Turdisms page. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/glossary

Oh boy that was fun. Joe Kernen throws it to "Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department" and ole Hampton proceeds to drop a bomb on the Fort Lee crowd that left them speechless. He might as well have blasted some 14-megaton flatulence the way the room went silent in shock! The Shill looked like a deer in the headlights. Austen Goonsby went into SPIN overdrive and, of course, LIESman began to sweat profusely.

What does it all mean? The U.S. economy sucks and it ain't getting any better. Period. End of story.

And please, please, please...DO NOT BUY THIS GARBAGE ABOUT QE∞ ENDING. It can't and it won't.

And recall....and I say this with 100% certainty because I heard it with my own two ears...The Bernank said that:

  1. He might look at "slowing the asset purchases" when unemployment falls to 6.5%.
  2. He doesn't expect 6.5% unemployment until mid-2015, at the earliest.

And, regardless, it doesn't matter. QE∞ isn't about growth or jobs or anything economic. It's about providing a constant bid in the bond market so that rates stay at 2% or lower. Again...Period. End of story.

I could go into the specifics of the lousy data but why? You've probably read about it elsewhere and if you haven't, I can just give you this link. It pretty much tells you all you need to know: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-05/people-not-labor-force-soar-663000-90-million-labor-force-participation-rate-1979-le

So let's turn the discussion back to gold and silver. That they haven't exploded higher today is due to several factors, one that I'll show you below. Primarily, though, sentiment is lousy and momentum is all to the short side. Therefore, it's very difficult to turn things around in one day. IT WILL TURN. AND SOON. But it's always going to be unlikely that such a major shift can occur in one day. So, we wait. And we continue to buy at these deeply-discounted prices. And we add to our stacks.

Now check this out. This is outrageous! When the headlines hit at 8:30 EDT, gold prices immediately jumped as new orders hit and a few buy-stops were triggered. Then, while we were still between 8:30 and 8:31, gold sharply reversed and fell back by $14! There is only one way for this to have happened so quickly: A huge sell order was placed above the market BEFORE the news with the intent of capping any surprise rally and blunting the momentum. If you ever wanted direct evidence that the metals are manipulated and managed, there you have it. And sadly, it worked. Halting the rally at 1575 emboldened the shorts to drive it back down and now, as I type, gold is still just $1565 and silver is up a measly 19¢ and barely over $27.

So, here we sit. The metals should be screaming higher but there not. So what else is new? They should have been screaming higher since October. And though we've bounced a bit today, we are clearly still not out of the woods for a drop below $1525 and $26. Today's action helps and I suppose that The Washout is slightly less likely today than it was yesterday. But we must remain guarded and on the lookout.

The first thing gold needs to do is to hold these gains and close today back above $1560. It then needs to stay above $1560 next week. Still, though, it would be foolish to "call a bottom" before gold gets back above $1625. Silver, too. As you can see on the chart below, every time this year it has had a chance to form a bottom, it has failed. Now our first target is $28. Don't even think about getting excited/optimistic until that level is regained and, frankly, don't get confident that a bottom is in until price is back above $29.40. That's a long way from $27.

Anyway, the moral of the story remains the same: Just stay patient and keep adding to your stack. You are on the right side of this. The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment continues to unfold right before our eyes. Do not lose courage or be swayed by the day-to-day machinations of the Cartel-controlled "markets". They don't matter. All that matters is that you continue to add to your financial protection by the accumulation of physical precious metal. One more time...Period. End of story.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  418 Comments

Juan Moment
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:38am

Impossible!!! 27 again!

Impossible!!! 27 again!

silver hogJuan Moment
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:39am

I hear you, I remember when

I hear you, I remember when it touched $31 and took off, I figured we'd never see 31 again. Man was I wrong!

Hammer
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:41am

Major bond markets prices are

Major bond markets prices are up sharply. Peripherals mostly up - trouble at mill brewing ?

hai
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:42am
silver hog
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:42am

Thanks.

Thanks Turd for all you do!

I was young during the Jimmy Carter era and SORT of understood things were bad then. Now that we are back to 1979 levels of labor participation, coupled with the mortgage crisis, I almost understand how bad it is out there.

Dobocop
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:43am

Thurd

Nope a solid fourth...

Up here in the north Canada lost 54,000 jobs, loonie down under .98.

tyberious
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:43am

1%

And that is all!

¤
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:45am

Lousy BLS? Treasuries surge? / BOJ QE at Work

April 5, 2013, 9:08 a.m. EDT

Treasurys surge as labor-market recovery slows

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasurys surged on Friday as the U.S. economy in March added the smallest number of jobs in 10 months, suggesting a slowing in the labor-market recovery.

The economy created 88,000 jobs last month, sharply lower than economist expectations of a gain of 190,000, according to a poll by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate edged lower to 7.6% from 7.7% but that reflected fewer people looking for jobs rather than a stronger labor market.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note 10_YEAR -3.91% fell 6 basis points to 1.7%. Those yields, which move inversely to prices, pushed below 1.7% immediately after the data. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Treasury investors have been scrutinizing the jobs report each month for insight into the health of the labor market, which the Federal Reserve has linked to the duration of its bond-buying program. The Fed buys $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage debt per month in order to keep short-term interest rates low, and has said it will continue the program until the jobless rate falls to 6.5%.

“The Fed isn’t going to be moving toward higher rates any time soon,” said Christopher Keith, senior vice president and fixed-income manager at Adviser Investments.

March’s surprise miss is a stark contrast to February’s positive jobs report. February gains were revised higher to 268,000 from 236,000, as were January’s jobs gains to 148,000 from 119,000, the Labor Department said Friday.

“This inconsistent pattern of jobs growth is pretty consistent with the slow growth economy that we’re in,” said Keith.

Yields on the 30-year U.S. bond 30_YEAR -4.45% fell 11 basis points to 2.87% and yields on the five-year note 5_YEAR -2.44% fell 2 basis points to 0.67%.

“Anyone who has been predicting the demise of the bond market is going to be in for a longer wait than they anticipated,” said Keith.

Marketwatch.com

Mr. Fix
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:46am
Hammer
Apr 5, 2013 - 10:47am

Twisted sister.  JASPER,

Twisted sister. But try getting 10K out of your bank of your own money and you get treated like a criminal. Yeah, that's normal. Give em a shotgun or some other bullshit and they give you 10K in credit. Twilight zone !!!

JASPER, Alabama (Reuters) - Thanks largely to the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jeffrey Nelson was able to put up a shotgun as down payment on a car.

Money was tight last year for the school-bus driver and neighborhood constable in Jasper, Alabama, a beaten-down town of 14,000 people. One car had already been repossessed. Medical bills were piling up.

And still, though Nelson's credit history was an unhappy one, local car dealer Maloy Chrysler Dodge Jeep had no problem arranging a $10,294 loan from Wall Street-backed subprime lender Exeter Finance Corp so Nelson and his wife could buy a charcoal gray 2007 Suzuki Grand Vitara.

All the Nelsons had to do was cover the $1,000 down payment. For most of that amount, Maloy accepted Jeffrey's 12-gauge Mossberg & Sons shotgun, valued at about $700 online.

In the ensuing months, Nelson and his wife divorced, he moved into a mobile home, and, unable to cover mounting debts, he filed for personal bankruptcy. His ex-wife, who assumed responsibility for the $324-a-month car payment, said she will probably file for bankruptcy in a couple of months.

When they got the Exeter loan, Jeffrey, 44 years old, was happy "someone took a chance on us." Now, he sees it as a contributor to his financial downfall. "Was it feasible? No," he said.

The Maloy dealership wouldn't discuss the loan. "I got nothing to say to you," an employee said.

At car dealers across the United States, loans to subprime borrowers like Nelson are surging - up 18 percent in 2012 from a year earlier, to 6.6 million borrowers, according to credit-reporting agency Equifax Inc. And as a Reuters review of court records shows, subprime auto lenders are showing up in a lot of personal bankruptcy filings, too.

It's the Federal Reserve that's made it all possible.

MONEY, MONEY EVERYWHERE

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/special-report-fed-fueled-explosion-subprime-auto-loans-110501752.html

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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