Gold and Silver pre-BLSBS

250
Thu, Apr 4, 2013 - 3:16pm

Well, here we are. The moment of truth. It's all on the line. This is the place. This is the time.

There's so much going on that I don't even know where to start. Frankly, I don't think I'll allow myself to start because, if I do, I'll likely end up typing for the next couple of hours and I don't have that kind of time, at least not today. So let's summarize a few things, instead. (In random order)

  • The ECB leaves rates unchanged but claims that the "economic risks are to the downside". No shit. You don't say?
  • The Bank of Japan, in their infinite wisdom, has decided to print the equivalent of $200B/month or $2.4T/ year in a desperate attempt to create inflation and "growth". Shrewd.
  • Initial jobless claims came in much, much higher today than anyone expected. This is the fifth or sixth economic data point this week that has been lousy and a "disappointment".
  • The GLD continues to be drained, falling again yesterday by 2.7 mts to 1,206.22 and now down 10.64% year-to-date.
  • The situation with the N-Kos is growing more surreal with each passing day. I'm 99% sure that this "crisis" will end just like all the others over the past 60 years. However, it's all so odd. It's almost as if the U.S. is baiting the N-Kos to act. Maybe they hope the Lil' Kim will do something out of a desperate attempt to save face and, after doing so, a different regime will take over, one that is more palatable to the entire world? Hell, I don't know. Like I said, it's getting more surreal each day.
  • The metals were getting ready to take another pounding today but the claims numbers forced a retreat/rethinking of the spec shorts. Yesterday, though, had a capitulative quality as we actually saw both metals OI decrease. With no follow-trough today, maybe the worst is behind us.
  • I'd still put the chances of a brief break of support at 50/50. In fact, I'm kind of pulling for it to happen. As mentioned yesterday, a quick drop through $1525 and $26 would be The Final Capitulation that would suck in all the remaining shorts as well as clean out any selling associated with the cornucopia of sell-stops below those levels.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow. With sentiment as lousy as it is and the spec shorts so clearly in charge, it's going to take an horrific jobs number tomorrow in order for us to see a major squeeze. The most likely scenario would be a number that, at first glance, doesn't look too shabby. As is often the case, the initial move would then be a headfake. Maybe gold immediately drops to $1525-1535 and silver plunges below $26.50 and toward $26. At that point, they reverse as cooler heads digest the report and notice worsening internals like the participation rate. Price bounces on the backs of The Greatest Fool shorts and we actually end up with an Outside Reversal Day to mark The Bottom. For an ORD tomorrow we would need to bottom below today's low of $1539.40 and then, preferably, close above today's high of $1559.30.

As mentioned frequently here over the past several weeks and reiterated these past 48 hours, we could see The Final Washout, too. Maybe the NFP number exceeds 225,000 and the rate falls to 7.5%. In that case, we might get our Washout. Either way for those addicted gamblers out there, tomorrow promises to be a day of significance. For the rest of us, tomorrow and/or early next week look to be terrific opportunities to once again add to our stacks at outrageously discounted prices. (Please click the HardAssetsAlliance link or visit the TurdMart Metals page when doing so ) https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store

Here are the best two charts I can give you. Note that, if I'm right about long-term support holding, the the metals are poised to finally close out these current downtrends and begin new UPtrends, instead.

Lastly, we should note that today marks the 45th anniversary of the murder of Dr. King. Look, I know he was a philanderer and he possessed many of the same weaknesses as all of us, but his contributions toward the advancement of equality and freedom need to be respected and appreciated. Though taken too soon, he clearly lived a life of meaning and significance.

U2 - MLK

Have a great evening and overnight and get ready for a wild ride on Friday.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  250 Comments

wouldyoubelieve...
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:33pm

thanks...

info here is 1st rate, looks like things are stabilizing right now, hmmm, cash in hand, what to do, what to do

Mammoth
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:34pm

For DPH

Dark Purple Haze - this Ounce is for you!

Cheers,

Mammoth

fats
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:35pm

aw, cmon

i wanted to drop the duece!

also, i just posted on the last thread that i pulled the trigger on a sleeve of buffalos while spot was at 26.69

(crosses fingers)

please be the bottom!

Eric_2
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:41pm

...

Top 5! bought another 100 ozs silver last week. wish I'd waited but don't think it matters in the long run. Keep stacking!

ltcolkilgore
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:41pm

Surreal

That pretty much nails it...

sur·re·al

/səˈriəl, -ˈril/ Show Spelled [suh-ree-uhl, -reel] adjective having the disorienting, hallucinatory quality of a dream; unreal; fantastic Seventh by the way...
Eric_2
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:42pm

Top 5!bought another 100 ozs

Dup post doesn't count!

meegoreng1
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:42pm

SILVER IS THE ONLY WEAPON WE HAVE AGAINST THE EE.

STAY AWAY FROM ALL PAPER GAMES! Don't play the EE (Evil Entity) games in any form. That's what they want. Do the exact opposite of what they want you to do.

Stay away from Comex, LBMA, PM stocks (they are fully compromised),ETFs and others! Sorry Turd, I know you encouraging for Andy's Army but I say do NOT play any of their paper games. If we as PM bugs, can't even do that, we will surely lose this war.

The EE can manipulate this as long as physical demand does not overwhelm their paper shorts! No other event will change their formula. This has been going on for decades, and it will go on and on if we don't know how to battle them.

ONLY buy physical and silver if you must. That is our only weapon folks. It is a fact that the amount of physical silver is dwindling. Not so for gold. They can manipulate everything except the demand of physical silver.

AND PLEASE, PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM ALL THEIR PAPER TRADING GAMES!

Mammoth
Apr 4, 2013 - 3:52pm

Mammoth Silver Round

A close second to the DPH Silver Round up above...

Mr. Fix
Apr 4, 2013 - 4:00pm

Another quiet day…

And the world hasn't ended yet.

Happy happy, joy joy.

United States is baiting North Korea, but not to change their regime, but to solidify the power of our regime.

How many of you knew that if just one little nuke "gets through" Obama's shields, martial law is automatic, and already required by law. This is the intended outcome, the United States (Obama) does not give a rats ass about North Korea.

Groaner
Apr 4, 2013 - 4:04pm

@Turd

With all that gold positive data you covered piling up and today's Inflation program from Japan until there is no tomorrow, high jobless claims, we get a spike up in gold with 10,000 contracts then they smack it right back down..

I was surprised to see it the metals come back later.

My point is, the metals should have really took off today.

So, I think they will do the same thing tomorrow.. Probably get that nice spike up, how much who knows, then the good old smack right back down. unless?

It seems to me with this Rigged market, it will go up when they want it to. Disgusting

Plus the USD was down almost 80 ticks from the high..

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