Gold and Silver pre-BLSBS

Thu, Apr 4, 2013 - 3:16pm

Well, here we are. The moment of truth. It's all on the line. This is the place. This is the time.

There's so much going on that I don't even know where to start. Frankly, I don't think I'll allow myself to start because, if I do, I'll likely end up typing for the next couple of hours and I don't have that kind of time, at least not today. So let's summarize a few things, instead. (In random order)

  • The ECB leaves rates unchanged but claims that the "economic risks are to the downside". No shit. You don't say?
  • The Bank of Japan, in their infinite wisdom, has decided to print the equivalent of $200B/month or $2.4T/ year in a desperate attempt to create inflation and "growth". Shrewd.
  • Initial jobless claims came in much, much higher today than anyone expected. This is the fifth or sixth economic data point this week that has been lousy and a "disappointment".
  • The GLD continues to be drained, falling again yesterday by 2.7 mts to 1,206.22 and now down 10.64% year-to-date.
  • The situation with the N-Kos is growing more surreal with each passing day. I'm 99% sure that this "crisis" will end just like all the others over the past 60 years. However, it's all so odd. It's almost as if the U.S. is baiting the N-Kos to act. Maybe they hope the Lil' Kim will do something out of a desperate attempt to save face and, after doing so, a different regime will take over, one that is more palatable to the entire world? Hell, I don't know. Like I said, it's getting more surreal each day.
  • The metals were getting ready to take another pounding today but the claims numbers forced a retreat/rethinking of the spec shorts. Yesterday, though, had a capitulative quality as we actually saw both metals OI decrease. With no follow-trough today, maybe the worst is behind us.
  • I'd still put the chances of a brief break of support at 50/50. In fact, I'm kind of pulling for it to happen. As mentioned yesterday, a quick drop through $1525 and $26 would be The Final Capitulation that would suck in all the remaining shorts as well as clean out any selling associated with the cornucopia of sell-stops below those levels.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow. With sentiment as lousy as it is and the spec shorts so clearly in charge, it's going to take an horrific jobs number tomorrow in order for us to see a major squeeze. The most likely scenario would be a number that, at first glance, doesn't look too shabby. As is often the case, the initial move would then be a headfake. Maybe gold immediately drops to $1525-1535 and silver plunges below $26.50 and toward $26. At that point, they reverse as cooler heads digest the report and notice worsening internals like the participation rate. Price bounces on the backs of The Greatest Fool shorts and we actually end up with an Outside Reversal Day to mark The Bottom. For an ORD tomorrow we would need to bottom below today's low of $1539.40 and then, preferably, close above today's high of $1559.30.

As mentioned frequently here over the past several weeks and reiterated these past 48 hours, we could see The Final Washout, too. Maybe the NFP number exceeds 225,000 and the rate falls to 7.5%. In that case, we might get our Washout. Either way for those addicted gamblers out there, tomorrow promises to be a day of significance. For the rest of us, tomorrow and/or early next week look to be terrific opportunities to once again add to our stacks at outrageously discounted prices. (Please click the HardAssetsAlliance link or visit the TurdMart Metals page when doing so )

Here are the best two charts I can give you. Note that, if I'm right about long-term support holding, the the metals are poised to finally close out these current downtrends and begin new UPtrends, instead.

Lastly, we should note that today marks the 45th anniversary of the murder of Dr. King. Look, I know he was a philanderer and he possessed many of the same weaknesses as all of us, but his contributions toward the advancement of equality and freedom need to be respected and appreciated. Though taken too soon, he clearly lived a life of meaning and significance.

U2 - MLK

Have a great evening and overnight and get ready for a wild ride on Friday.


About the Author

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Apr 7, 2013 - 2:00am


might think that Riots, Unemployment, Nonparticipation, Devastation, Hyperinflation, would be a perceived necessary wake up call, given the pandered mine set of modern America, to restore Constitutionism, Traditionalism, Libertarianism to maximize FREEDOM and living standards, as the founding fathers envisions and installed. This is the time to prepare for the worst for imo it is now the only way to recapture that freedom.

lib-greens 2020 after Armor tanks are on wilshire blvd holding peeps back, asking (finally) why o why did this happen?

What are you all repairing for, if not the worst, which is actually the best thing possible? A real chance at freedom or mere profits?

imo .. etc etc

Bongo JimBongo Jim
Apr 5, 2013 - 4:32pm

No he had a white cat

Auric Goldfinger had the gold Rolls.

Apr 5, 2013 - 2:04pm

@ Green Lantern

search "Last Stand of the Tin Cans", that should give a sample of how dangerous a destroyer can be, long live the Sammie B!!!!

SheetrockerPuck Smith
Apr 5, 2013 - 1:59pm


Great to see you back! Made my day a lot better.

Apr 5, 2013 - 1:57pm


it wasn't a prophecy, it was a reminder, April 5, 1933

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:49am

DPRK (also follow-up on thread earlier)

I had google translate the Russian news report.

Basically, the few embassies located in Pyongyang DPRK were told that they may want to evacuate. That is consistent with the positioning of the missile on the DPRK eastern missile range.

About a year ago or more, I started using to recon over DPRK. I was able to learn quite a bit about the country from just using the satellite images. One of the most intriguing things was that I was able to locate the DPRK missile launch facilities. They seem to have two launch facilities, one on their northwest coast and the other on their eastern coast of the peninsula. The launch facilities were interesting to observe because I know a bit about rocketry and missile trajectories.

DPRK uses their eastern range to test rockets on a northeastern trajectory - which would take the missile over Japanese airspace. Needless to say, the Japanese strongly objected to this approach several years ago because the Japanese did not want to be under the missile when it came back to Earth. DPRK then used the southern launch facility for the three stage TaepoDong in 2012.

The Chinese sold DPRK six mobile launch platforms. The mobile launch platforms are of Soviet origin. My guess is that the rocket is a solid fueled rocket because I can not believe that the DPRK would fully fuel a liquid rocket and then drive it around the country. The guy driving the truck would be driving a bomb that if jostled the wrong way might explode and kill him in the process. The solid fueled rockets are more stable.

On the other hand, the SCUD's used previously burned kerosene and fuming nitric acid, which are both fairly stable compared to the LOX used in the USA. However, the energy you can get from the SCUD is much less than the rockets using the LOX. This is partly responsible for the difference in payload lift capability. Plus, the DPRK SCUD missiles are heavy. If the missile is heavier, the payload is less.

These stories about DPRK are a big distraction from the currency war.

But, DPRK might also be about the currency war. DPRK trades primarily through PRC. I've previously posted about the linkage in PRChina's trading behavior between the amount of gold reported and the amount of oil reported.

The additional gold imports seem to match the reported decrease in crude oil imports to PRC from Iran. I've hypothesized in this blog that PRC corporations may be bartering crude oil for gold on the asian markets.

I have to wonder if liquidation of gold during asian trading hours is due to the gold contracts being liquidated by iranian interests. This might be pushing the gold price down at night and then positioning the PBOC or other player to pick up gold cheaper in London just a few hours later.

What does this have to do with DPRK?

DPRK has to plant for its people to eat. It can not do much trade with China due to UN sanctions. The people in DPRK are thin and undernourished while their leader Kim appears to be obese and could be diabetic from over consumption of white rice.

I have to conclude that the gold for oil gambit is also hurting DPRK's black market economy that is likely trading in gold also. Gold is becoming a de factor currency anyway, whether or not TPTB want to accept it or not.

A conflagration in DPRK suits TPTB fine.

DPRK wants to celebrate Kim Il Sung's birthday on April 15, coincidentally our tax day.

If DPRK pulls off a missile launch, that could be it. If they specifically launch from the eastern facilities, it will overfly Japan. Japan will have a choice to shoot it down or not. They can use radar to get a fix on the missile's trajectory during the first 20 seconds of flight. Cruisers are a good thing for the USN to send. As a US citizen, I am quite pleased that the USN can float those naval combat ships off Japan and ROK.

@Green Lantern - I liked your comments. That discussion of the Aussie issue is very intriguing. Australia will never be a Switzerland for Asia. There's too much historic, legal, and economic ties to the UK and UK banks. Singapore plays that "Swiss" game more effectively. Hong Kong maintains some element of that as well.

My guess is that this DPRK news noise will continue for another 2-4 weeks, until the US-ROK joint military exercise stop around end of April.

The other possibility is that some idiot (either side) decides to do something stupid, fires a weapon the wrong way and launches a hot war.

China appears to be asking both sides to calm down, which in asian terms is a rebuke of DPRK's activity.

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:48am

the only way

the only way the peninsule MIGHT get united, is if he does something stupid, and the people are freed.

never underestimate stupidity, and hope for the best.

What is significant, is that today NY low 26.90, touched yesterday's high, no gap, and Ag is notorious for closing gap. so far, so good.

Curiously, has COT shown JMP covering shorts?

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:27am

@ RRJJ Regular Car .. 1ton might weigh it down.

Some thoughts. Regular European passenger car? 4 adults for 720 lb + trunk space. I'd think 1/2 ton in total might stress it. 1 ton or 2000 lbs would be quite a load. The car was probably looked low on its shocks and the tires were bulging.

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Apr 5, 2013 - 11:24am

In Defense of

the Bernack. always remember the OUT, congress must show fiscal responsibility. He is in the BAD place, trying to placate his master in face of the deficits. The real crime is not WW FDR LBJ BHO and the 120 years of political pandering, vote for me and I will give the goodies. Politicians can only obtain power through the electorate, buying into the nanny-granny state, the black robed reapers following the people's wishes, by and large. The real villains here are the politically uneducated, who want it all, here and now. We can expect the politicians to pander to cement power. We all talk about the check and balances, of gov and complain, but where is the mirror showing the fairest of them all.

Make sure you guys keep your heads on straight, and point the finger where it truly belongs, AT OURSELVES.

The point is made clear watching D Morgan on MaxKesier, where for generations, people have lost a knowledge of bullion and its roles. People need REEDUCATING, and the constitution speaking of gold/silver and THE REPUBLIC is a good place to start.

next post: china massing on the NK border? THE GLOBAL CONFLUENCE MARCHES ON!

yokoskuka, (toykyo) saebo (Nagasaki), WWII naval bases. But where is hashirajima, kure, inland sea, and of course, the BUNGAL channel. Love the map!

Chinieu SK naval base, should that not be PUSAN with a "P"?

and why is not the SEA OF JAPAN listed between KO and Japan?

That map is very very PC :(

Apr 5, 2013 - 11:01am

All Embassies Told To Evacuate Pyongyang

Get out of North Korea, now! ALL embassies told to evacuate staff from Pyongyang after madman dictator warns he 'cannot guarantee safety of foreigners'

  • Rogue communist state issued a deadline of April 10 to every government
  • Russia in 'contact with U.S., China and South Korea' about staff safety
  • About two dozen countries, including the U.K., have embassies in North Korea - although the U.S. has no diplomatic relations
  • N Korea has moved second Musudan missile with 3,000km range
  • South Korea deployed two warships with missile-defence systems

I'm pretty sure we're safe in the U.S. from anything N.Korea has to offer. I won't rule out our own government conducting some false flag attack on us though and then blaming it on N.Korea. Pretty sad state of affairs that our own U.S. government is so openly corrupt to the core that I'm more concerned with them attacking us than any foreign regime.

I do think S. Korea could be in for some trouble if fat boy turns out to be serious and launches attacks against S. Korea.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
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9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Forum Discussion

by SilveryBlue, 3 hours 48 min ago
by 11IMIX, Sep 28, 2020 - 9:58pm
by Green Lantern, Sep 28, 2020 - 5:44am
by KevinBenavides, Sep 27, 2020 - 6:01pm