Just Three Charts

Wed, Apr 3, 2013 - 10:50am

You get what you get and you don't throw a fit.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 184


proformatrillionaire · Apr 3, 2013 - 10:52am

First again!!

Been a while. I usually celebrate by purchasing a sleeve of ASEs. But I bought three yesterday. Oh, well.

Fr. Bill · Apr 3, 2013 - 10:55am

I'm No. 2

I have to try harder.

Exergy · Apr 3, 2013 - 10:57am

why we buy

Thanks for all of this Turd

We buy metal to protect our wealth ...not get rich

If we benefit in my view that is a bonus.

I look at Cyprus and ask. "what if that was me"

...just saying

metals are one sale...buy some but save some cash for better deals later

ho hum...back to the grind

ancientmoney Fr. Bill · Apr 3, 2013 - 10:57am

@Fr. Bill . . . try harder . . .

How's the new grandchild??

¤ · Apr 3, 2013 - 10:59am
Loud Noises · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:00am

If my shopping cart at

If my shopping cart at Provident drops by another 5 dollars I am buying. 

That's my version of restraint at these prices. Maybe I'll get burned as we free fall through 26, but for the past 2 1/2 years, there's been no evidence that will happen. I agree with Turd's sense that we are still in a predictable trend. If that changes, ok, then re-evaluate. But so far nothing here is shocking.

MetalMike · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:00am



I for one was happy to see the "blue light special" and got my $80 face in 90% shiny from the local LCS. He states premiums are still going up and I may have to switch over to eagles or maples as they are about evenly priced with 90% right now.

R man J · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:03am

AG Hit $26 in Jan 2011

That was the infamous "Turd's bottom". Within 12 weeks it was $47.00.

ancientmoney · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:03am

@Turd . . . another thought . . .

As we learned from Ted Butler, JPM owns 96% of the COMEX net short position.

We also know that while GLD is shedding gold, SLV is adding silver.

JPM is custodian for SLV. According to the prospectus, as custodian, if JPM removes silver from SLV, they must simply pay for it at going dollar price.

So, is JPM actually hedging on COMEX against the SLV inventory, which they could take anytime they desire?

Or, put another way, is JPM driving price down on COMEX to allow SLV to gather more silver on the cheap, which JPM can claim as its own whenever it deems the time is right?

Texas Sandman · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:10am

One more chart

I had speculated last night that confluence resistance between the 38% retrace (27.33) and the daily pivot (27.385) would stop the advance. We made it to 27.31, but never managed to get overbought on the hourly...

So, still no safe play in my book. I certainly wasn't smart enough or lucky enough to short 27.31.

Orange · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:14am

Gold @ $1900

Given what has happened in Cyprus, I don't care if the price of gold is $1900 or $1500. Given the money printing around the world, who cares what the price of gold and silver is. Trade one for another but hold no fiat corrupt currencies.

Have a great day, I think I will pull some weeds and prepare my garden.

Bobbejaan · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:21am
buzlightening · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:22am

Stack and stay FIT

Been through it all before and haven't lost one silver eagle stacked from 2008 to May, 2009. I did trade off 20 silver eagles to a friend for 1000 benron bux in April 2011. With the trashy cash, I quickly was at my local gun dealer purchasing a new bushmaster ar15. Plenty of ammo and great accessories to boot. There's a good double in all that purchase and the 5.62 ammo has dried up so quickly you're paying triple for the 1000's of rounds I purchased bacvk then. All total it was about a 2500 benron bux purchase. Also stocked up on an additional 2 springfield xp40's and 1000's of rounds. All total that Spring I suppose I went into guns and ammo for about 5-6K. My wife and I had already put 10k bennie bux into food storage and now that would cost you over 15k to purchase the same 25 year nitro packed food storage now. Just got the latest pricing from emergency essentials. I've put my mouth where I've known we're headed for years from the global debt gone wild bankster fraudster flunkie criminals. We're in for an epic great depression II. If you're not taking in food storage, water; guns and ammo, along with bartering sound money gold & silver your playing on the beach and a financial tsunami is about 500 yds from crashing in up0on those who have wandered down unsuspectingly to the waters edge. The tide has gone way out and am quite certain within the next 30 daze a self evident truth comes crashing in upon the global masses. Even if it doesn't dawn in 30 daze and lingers for 60 daze, you should be in a common sense mode heaping up your economic lifeboats. The rat basturd criminal cabal has moved off the beach and so should you. 6 months from now the weak hand scattered ones here, will be bawling out the other side of their mouths, as the double minded are unstable in all their ways. 

Texas Sandman · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:23am


Holding some fiat for daily expenses is an unfortunate necessity.

Beyond that, I wholeheartedly agree. Moreover, I'd go so far as to say anybody holding >$100K in any bank account or even in combination, anywhere in the world is simply retarded.

The mendacity of the banksters knows no limits. You can only be on one side of a war.

TechTrade · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:24am

New Daily Sell Signal in Gold

The last daily sell signal we had in gold dropped the price from $1670 area to $1560. Don't be surprised to see gold test the lows at 1555 or so, reject, and then make new lows in the 1500-1530 area. Gold / ES ratio hit an all-time low at 7.50 area today. I think they can get it to parity at 0, or even lower.

A lower low needs to be put in on the weekly chart to set up divergence for any rally to happen, that might go to 1640 or so. This would be in the 1510 area. We're still in a monthly downtrending market, with a LONG way to go to change that, unfortunately. 1200 is certainly not outside the realm of possibility. Wish I'd kept my short hedge at 1603. Or 1790, for that matter.

Since the Oct 2012 highs at 1795, there has been nothing but lower lows and lower highs. Even that rally was just a bear market rally, after the 1920 top. Since Oct., MACD has never gotten overbought, just gets to mid-range and rolls over, as it just has again. Doubtful there's going to be any magical turnaround anytime soon. As far as buying calls go, I'm sure the option sellers will be glad to get some free money.

Bobbejaan · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:30am

Sorry sir, They don't like it up 'em (anymore)

FROM "New Indian Express"

Gold smugglers take body route to outwit customs

By Express News Service - CHENNAI ..... 03rd April 2013 10:14 AM

Smugglers and couriers who bring gold into the country illegally, have usually been known to bring the commodity by hiding it outside their body through various means. But with air intelligence units of the customs wising up to myriad modes of concealment, smugglers have resorted to reshaping gold to get it through. Monday’s incident where two men who arrived from Sri Lanka at the airport, had shaped crude gold bits to fit inside the base of their mouth under the tongue, is perhaps the best example of this new practice.


Last December, a passenger from the Middle East was caught with a coat lined with graphite and 175 gold coins sewn into the lining, while a woman with 1.5 kg of gold sewn into a fake kondai (hair bun) was collared two months ago. “Body scans are not mandatory in many airports and passengers are frisked and subjected to full body scans at the destination airport only when there is a major cause for suspicion,” the customs official added.

In another incident, a buxom lady was arrested after sleuths found that her bosom appeared extra-large as she had sewn 4 kg of shaped gold into her brassiere. In all these cases, customs officials have prided themselves on spotting suspicious-looking passengers.



Looks like the "buxom lady" tried the "American Express" smuggling method [wink]

NTNOCN: "American Express" (1980)
ancientmoney TechTrade · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:36am

@TechTrade re: new sell signal . . .

Agreed that the elite are painting charts so as to get us to sell our physical back to them. I'm not biting on that one . . . wouldn't hurt to buy paper hedge, maybe, just to lessen the mental hurt, though.

· Apr 3, 2013 - 11:41am
Arjen · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:41am

Just give me 26 damnit !

I see its right about 2 years ago that we were in this hype to almost 50$ silver. I had already bought my physical stash a while earlier but the lure of leverage kept pulling me. I made an account with just 250$ and got in for a ride. I kept my leverage at 10 and bought more and more as the price went up. My equity rose to almost 5000$. However i didnt know when to stop. In hindsight, it was obvious, so many analysts predicted it to peak just below 50. I wanted to go for the big money though so i stayed in. And obviously lost it all. 

I have never been a trader. Being a trade is about spreading your risks and carefully calculating how you can optimize your results with a minimal chance of going broke. Bigger risks, and you are on longer term actually guaranteed to go broke. It is a full time job, you are very good if you manage to get double digit anual results. That is only worth your while if you got very significant money to invest and i dont. 

Therefore, i have been on the sideline for these 2 years. Just being content with my phyz. However, i always kept an eye out for the next good chance. One like 2 years ago where i might have a risk to go broke, but at least also have a proper chance to increase my bet by a good multitude. And of course have a very positive risk reward ratio. 

For 2 years i have been waiting, in june 2012 i was on a vacation and missed my chance. This time, i am here. This is that chance i have been waiting for. I already bought a little bit at 27,3 yesterday because i dont want to miss the boat again. But 26 is where the real chances lie. This is where i can get in and confidently take a leverage of 50. Maybe even more. Please give me this chance. And please dont let it be while i'm asleep. 

· Apr 3, 2013 - 11:44am

If you are buying physical at these levels

Please visit the TurdMart for a list of current affiliations.


billhilly Arjen · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:44am


If you are considering taking leverage of 50-1, or more, then I don't understand how you would BE ABLE to sleep. Best of luck to you my friend.

billhilly George Clooney · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:49am


Why don't you just extend the chart and tell us why there is a technical case for Gold at $350, or $35. No offense, I just don't understand your point here.

Alex · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:49am


Every so often I check out local classifieds websites to see if anyone is selling physical silver/gold when I'm looking to add without paying the premiums you would pay if purchased online etc. Usually I find there are very few private sellers / not much available to purchase.

Today on the other hand there seem to be many sellers in the market. 

Weak hands- sure, small sample -yep, but you still have to question the concept that "as price drops, silver becomes unavailable to purchase"

Anyway - point being check out your local classifieds. May find some good deals today. :)

Loud Noises · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:51am


No more Provident? I only posted my chosen store here because I thought they were affiliated or an advertiser. Apologies if not.

Arjen billhilly · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:52am

Well the small size of my

Well the small size of my account allows me to sleep. I will take any leverage that sets my bottom at 25,7 or so. If silver has bottomed 4 times at almost exactly 26. There must be at least a reasonable chance that it will do so again and not go below it. Even if its just 10%, it will alow an extreme leverage and thus an extreme profit potential that easilly outweighs the risk. Yes it is gambling, but when the expected value is positive, i dont mind a little gamble. And i think the EV is very positive when i do get this 26. 

Mr. Fix · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:53am

Turd, I am not much of a Chartist.

 That is your area of expertise, and I will always concede that point. I also rarely look at charts, but your silver chart caught my attention today.

 The triangle that you outlined, stating that it is the only one that matters, is probably right. I agree.

 Now for my analysis, the bottom (point) of that particular triangle was originally intended to be the endgame.

 We are now in overtime. The second little triangle after the main one, may be looked at as "overtime".

 Apparently, the powers that be were not ready yet to pull off their full-blown collapse, and besides that,

 they are still stealing the worlds wealth at an all time record pace, and maybe just simply figured they had a little bit more pillaging left in their plan.

 Predicting an end to the Keynesian experiment is problematic, because it is so well orchestrated, with so many moving parts, and they are all being manipulated.

 As that second little triangle after the big one bottoms out, I will make sure my provisions are at maximum.

 Those descending triangles always meant a big change is coming,

 this one will be epic.

 But that's just how I see it, I am sure others will disagree. 

opticsguy · Apr 3, 2013 - 11:59am

$xau/gold now 20% lower than 2008 low.

Either the miners are a screaming buy, or gold is going to $0

Al Huxley opticsguy · Apr 3, 2013 - 12:13pm


Going to zero, don't you think? If I look at the latest St. Louis money supply charts, and see that they're heading straight up (85 billion / month outright debt monetization will do that), and look at what happened to the price of gold over the last 4 years when the money supply was shooting straight up - well, I just have to think 'there's a trend that's due for a change'. That's why I find all the technical arguments for $1200 gold so compelling. They REALLY reinforce the idea that this long-standing, and supposedly fundamentally rational correlation of money supply to gold price is due to be broken. And as for the miners, well, some of them MAY be making money right now, but clearly the market, in it's infinite wisdom, is telling us that they won't be making ANY money soon, when gold's back under 1000, and the Chinese and Russians are scrambling to unload theirs so they can resume purchase of US debt.

Buying DUST right now will make you a quadrillionaire (GDX to 0, DUST to infinity). I imagine the market makers don't particularly like the idea that there is in fact 1 leveraged bear ETF out there that actually has a positive return (I'm sure they're working on a way so the 3x bear DUST fund can go down 10% /day at the same time the GDX goes down 10%/day, they just haven't found a semi-plausible reason to put out there yet) but they must be accepting the idea that if a handful of retailers make a few bucks, it's small price to pay for the decimation of an entire industry.

¤ · Apr 3, 2013 - 12:13pm

getting ready

I'm a day late angry but I just threw a little cashola into my options account in order to buy more SLW calls (55) out into Jan. 14.

It would bring my cost basis down to about $.28 a call. Given the relatively small amount of capital outlay overall I won't sweat it for any reason.

I couldn't help but notice that the 'puts' on the same option are up $.85 today as of this writing. Yikes!

There's an obvious learning moment in that. But for now, I'm long SLW and that electronic deposit can't settle fast enough.

Loud Noises · Apr 3, 2013 - 12:16pm

Provident is great

They are still an advertiser and they will soon be an affiliate, too. Affiliations are new for them and they are working up the banners and links. They'll be added to the store page when ready.

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