On The Lookout

Thu, Mar 28, 2013 - 11:57am

I'm not liking the looks of things here so this post is intended to keep you on your toes in the very short term.

What has me bothered is the action over the past 36 hours or so. You'll recall that, back on Tuesday, I typed up a post that drew attention to the incredible resilience silver was showing near $28.60. Over a period of more than two weeks, each time paper silver dropped below that level, it was bought in sufficient size to bounce it back up. Then, at approximately 2:00 a.m. New York time yesterday morning, price was raided in sufficient size to break silver down through $28.60 and $28.40, toward $28.10. Though not surprising to most of us, the move was so brazen that even Uncle Ted mentioned it in his midweek update yesterday: (https://www.butlerresearch.com).

"I’ve commented recently that true market liquidity has been lacking in silver. Last night, at a time when liquidity is at its thinnest when it does exist, the price of silver was smashed for about 50 cents with no notable price weakness in other commodities, like gold. This was no accident and is of the type of expected price stab to the downside I’ve written about recently. There should be no doubt that this was solely designed to induce additional technical fund selling on the COMEX. The good news, in addition to the price struggling back the rest of the day, is that it looks like significant tech fund selling did occur, based upon volume statistics. The bad news, of course, is that instead of free markets, we must endure such intentional manipulation by JPMorgan and other collusive COMEX commercials until the final day of resolution."

I view the wee hour attack as a warning. Raids such as yesterday's are not random events and are almost always a sign of future nefarious intent.

Price rebounded yesterday due to overwhelming and significant demand for physical silver, at both the AM and PM London fixes. However, silver has failed to hold the ground it regained and has since slipped back to $28.49 as I type. This is even happening while today's U.S. economic news has been dismal: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/chicago-pmi-tumbles-production-plunges-september-2009-levels & https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/chart-day-deja-vu-all-over-again & https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/final-q4-gdp-misses-personal-consumption-slides-once-more-full-breakdown & https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/initial-jobless-claims-miss-most-over-4-months-emergency-claims-v-fib

So, now, here's the problem. Not only is London closed tomorrow, it's closed on Monday, too. This means that there will not be another price fix until the London AM of Tuesday. This also means that silver will trade on the very light volume Globex tomorrow, again on Sunday night and all day Monday and then Monday night without a price fix for physical allocation. This gives The Bad Guys all sorts of time to jam price lower and entice even more fresh LargeSpec, momo-chasing dollars. It's entirely possible that they could even round-trip the thing by jamming price all the way down toward $27 and then buying it back up to near $28, all before the Tuesday AM fix. Not saying this WILL happen. I'm simply pointing out the possibility to you so that:

  1. You don't freak out and panic.
  2. You are ready to buy the dip, if it develops.

Here are the charts that spell this out:

And here are the gold charts to accompany:

OK, that's all for now. Hopefully this is nothing but a false alarm, a siren in the distance. However, if things get a little dicey later today and then into Monday, don't say you weren't warned.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 28, 2013 - 11:59am



Mar 28, 2013 - 12:03pm
Mar 28, 2013 - 12:04pm

top ten!!


Mar 28, 2013 - 12:05pm

Fifth of gin please

I’ve been taking all the onslaught of economic data and news of late and I’ve come to a few conclusions of the major players of our little blue planet.

  1. The major economies are all running on credit. Two are running on credit supplied by external suppliers, the US and Europe. The other two are running on internal credit China and Japan,
    1. Japan is the most leveraged country in the world BUT the people who own the debt are Japanese, so this is controllable and somewhat sustainable as long as the people of Japan are willing.
    2. The Chinese are running on Government cash and the government and Chinese both run on it, they don’t buy on credit they mostly buy on cash. They gamble and speculate but their game is cash. Also and new to the game, Gold.
    3. The US and Europe are both running on borrowed money and their time is running out as soon debt will overrun everything else as being the largest burden.
      1. The manipulation of the data and the total lack of control on the spending occurring in these countries resemble a heroin addict, they will lie, steal and do anything to get that next fix. They are at that state of starting to steal from family members now and very soon they will be tossed out on the curb with nothing but the clothes on their back.
  2. There are some responsible non addicted countries that have been doing the correct and sustainable actions, all with a major component of social base services; Canada, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, New Zealand. They have budgets, reasonable debt, and solid banks.
    1. Australia is a question as they have a major housing bubble and an economy linked at the hip to China. But they have a strong resource base and when China does go down as they have cash, the recovery will be quick.
  3. The BRICK countries will have a tough time as they are so corrupt that any disruption in the flow of money and they will crash like 2009.

What will be the disruption of all of this?

My bet is China will be the world disruptor, but Europe (Spain and Italy) will have bank runs that effect China that brings down the rest.

When the dust settles, China will have the reserve currency or at least more than 50% of the world. Australia is already using China’s currency to settle trade in Asia.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:06pm

Fast and Furious

Does not even begin to describe what is about to happen.

Keep your eyes and ears open....stay on your toes because it's coming and sooner than most realize.....

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:07pm

Anybody seen this...

Has any one else seen this email that floated into my life this morning? I am wondering if it the Obama vs Ronmney data is accurate.

In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior: "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship."

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."
The Obituary follows:

Born 1776, Died 2012

It doesn't hurt to read this several times.
Professor Joseph Olson of Hamline University School of Law in St. Paul, Minnesota,points
out some interesting facts concerning the last Presidential election:

Number of States won by: Obama: 19 Romney: 29
Square miles of land won by: Obama: 580,000 Romney: 2,427,000
Population of counties won by: Obama: 127 million Romney: 143 million
Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by: Obama: 13.2 Romney: 2.1

Professor Olson adds: "In aggregate, the map of the territory Romney won was mostly the land owned by the taxpaying citizens of the country.

Obama territory mostly encompassed those citizens living in low income tenements and living off various forms of government welfare..."

Olson believes the United States is now somewhere between the
"complacency and apathy" phase of Professor Tyler's definition of democracy, with some forty percent of the nation's population already having reached the "governmental dependency" phase.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:13pm

Is there an end in sight for this crap?

Bail-ins, Bail-outs, QE 1, 2, 3 and more, PIIGS blowups. You've got to hand it to the cartel they've managed to keep the game up all through these hugely PM positive news events. They appear to be as strong as ever. Now the class action silver suit is dead and CFTC is as likely as Wynter Benton. Exchanges in China have gone quiet too.

Is there anything that we have to look forward to that might break their hold anymore?

Nick Elway
Mar 28, 2013 - 12:14pm

Apmex is buying $1000 face for $29.36 an ounce

Apmex offering $21242 for $1000 face of 90% is 29.36 per ounce.

It may be time to pay more attention to the real market.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:16pm

No. 4

Video unavailable

Poster RUNuts had a great comment last night regarding panic...

"The first rule of panic is simple: "Panic before everyone else does." With that rule in mind, the pertinent question at hand is also simple: "Should I panic now?"


People who never panic are the one's who have foresight and have given thought to scenario's or developing situations because they have a high degree of awareness.

By virtue of having a plan (no matter what the circumstances might be about) or having a series of contingencies in life you'll be better able to deal with and take advantage of whatever presents itself because you'll have seen it coming.

So in that vane and without dwelling on endless possibilities and worries 24/7 it'll be the individual who not only has a Plan B but will also have a Plan C-Z and who rolls with the punches. Seeing the potential punch beforehand never lets it get close to you or affect you.

So in that sense panic is very avoidable and unnecessary to a large degree (as it's a controllable emotion) and RUNuts is completely correct.

Plan accordingly and panic will never come into play.

Mr. Fix
Mar 28, 2013 - 12:16pm


Not much to brag about, but so be it.

Welcome back Dark Purple Haze, it wouldn't be "Turdville" without you.

Sorry about “setting your fro on fire” yesterday. At least you got back into your groove.

Have a nice day everyone, catch up on the news after work tonight.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:17pm

Mr Fix

Thanks....have a great day :-)

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:21pm

i am

ready to buy another hundred ounces of silver when they slam it down under 28,that is my revenge to the banksters,jezus i am starting to hate the banksters more and more,forgive me jezus,i cant help it.(lol)

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:22pm

Bitcoin up 100% and silver down

Bitcoin up 100% and silver down 1.5% since Cyprus crisis began. It is a beautiful day in the US markets as silver falls 1.3%.


Mar 28, 2013 - 12:23pm

Again, keep in mind

My concern for prices is just through early next week. No long-term change. I am still expecting BIG things in April and beyond.

To that end, read this. Tom Fitz and Louise Yamada are the only two chartists that are worth their salt.


Mar 28, 2013 - 12:26pm

DPH ... remember that Au buffalo we ordered on the same day.

Thank you for your order from Provident Metals. We wanted to let you know that your package was shipped.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:30pm

have to break this down into small pieces

today is first notice--comex close today puts that aside to some extent

then Turds 4 day weekend comments come into play.

S&P 500 makes a high today-Richmond fed, KC fed, Chicago PMI, jobs data this morning, none of that encouraging unless you like the printing coming out of weak economy pumping up the stock market.

One day, suddenly, fundamentals will matter.

Pick 52
Mar 28, 2013 - 12:31pm

All Fools Day

For anyone who's into it, April 1 is an Illuminati / occultist holiday, 13 weeks exactly into the new year. The May 1 , 2011 jamdown also fell on Mayday. the largest worldwide communist holiday, and later that September, 2011 the smackdown began on the solstice around the 21st, 22nd.. I'm not saying those two incidents couldn't be coincidence, but with Cyprus and the metals price action this seems to be lining up to be trouble, like Turd is saying

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:31pm

Just Because

We are are well aware of this. I thought this was a possibility for a good clip to share with the unaware

I just feel I can not give up on them

DoubleThink Clip


Mar 28, 2013 - 12:32pm

Another log for the fire

"The Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) was originally introduced in 1984 to reduce the cracking of computer systems owned by financial institutions and the government; nearly 30 years and seven amendments later, the law is regarded by many lawyers and academics as overly “expansive” and “sweeping,” as it lets the government incarcerate “any Internet user they want,” according to former federal prosecutor Orin Kerr."


Grigeo Doctor J
Mar 28, 2013 - 12:33pm

Dr J, the singular path of the US

"From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;...."

But the US path has been unique..

French periodical La Liberté (1932), on the government of the United States...

“Verily, Pontius Pilate was not more cynical or more odious.....Does this government, which obeys gangsters, which capitulates helpless before thieves and assassins of babies in the cradle, dare to assume such a height of moral authority that it thinks it can dictate to Europe and France? Americans are the only race which passed directly from barbarism to decadence without knowing civilization.”

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:33pm

Exciting Times

I have been watching this thing in Cyprus closely. I have been talking to my folks about it and the world banking system in general. I know it's a big deal. I convinced my folks to pull some extra cash out. They not only pulled out some cash. They cashed out one of their retirement accounts even knowing they would take a tax hit. I really felt like I was able to convince them with facts and just some straight talk. Although I am not going to underestimate the power of fear, even though I was calm and collected. They are both retired and concerned about being able to fund their future. Gonna stop by at lunch today and talk about junk silver. I think I will bring a handful along with me as a visual aid. People are waking up. Is it too late to prepare? Not yet. Stay informed and keep stacking.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:34pm

it almost appears

like those in charge have given up on even trying to fix things and are just focusing on how to make as much money for themselves till things really fall apart.

There was always a small grouping that did that for themselves. Now it just seems rather widespread. Lots of BS talk from elected leaders and nothing coming out of it-I used to think it was less corrupt and more inept-now the reverse way.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:35pm

Burning Man

Good to see our favorite interwebz shaman is back in the house, divining the future from the flames of the present. Welcome back.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:36pm


I hear you. I no longer get upset about this nonsense even though the price of silver is currently below my dollar cost average. Forget about everything we learned in ECON 101. That's not how things work anymore. The cartel has the metals locked down because they know that the metals could quickly get away from them, like they did in April 2011. Nobody, regardless of how experienced or successful they are, knows when the manipulation will end. Several weeks ago Mr. Sinclair said that gold would have taken off by now. Yet gold is below $1600 as I type. I'm not criticizing him. Just saying.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:37pm


Watch those lows of yesterday morning, particularly this afternoon on the Globex and overnight.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:38pm

turd who you got

OSU vs AZ ???

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:39pm

$27 th? LOL

Guess DPH must be feeling good - If YouTube music video is any indicator, right?

Soooo silver may touch 27, or 26, or to reverse infinity and beyond. One thing the PTB never have calculated is that AG is addictive, habit-forming, obsessive, transferred from LCS to boat to unfortunate boating accident.

And this is irrefutable, as they say.

"...Price inflation with a major economic downturn will decimate U.S. Federal Government finances with exploding deficits and uncontrolled spending...Federal Reserve policy will continue at an expanding rate with massive credit expansion which will make the Dollar Crisis WORSE...Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic role as Money..." - Ron Paul on the House Floor: April 24th, 2002
POG on 4-24-02: $304.20
POS on 4-24-02: $4.55

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:41pm

God bless Santa

But he appears to have made the critical mistake of putting date and price in the same sentence.

It's one thing to say that gold will move to $X.

It's something entirely different to say that gold will move to $X by a date certain.

Nevertheless, he is extremely confident, wise and knowledgeable. Don't write him off just yet.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:42pm

for tonight

I like: Canes, Cats, Indy and LaSalle.

Your best bet would be to do the opposite.

Mar 28, 2013 - 12:42pm


Just turned on Bloomberg. Corn, wheat and soybeans getting their collective nuts crushed.

I noticed in a local store flyer that came yesterday, they have some "prep" food items I want to add to the pile. Time to get my mind off this BS and go shopping. They sell ammo, too. If something new came in it will put some spring back in my step. Wish me luck.

Report on Bloomberg now, from reporter on the ground in Cyprus. Made it sound like he was reporting on the unicorn exhibit at their local zoo that had been open for 10 years. Yawn ... Folks coming in and just doing their normal banking. Business owners just thankful they can get funds to pay employees at the end of the month. Oh, yeah, there's that 100 euro limit per day and the part where you can only take the equivalent of $6500 PER MONTH out of the country. But, all in all, just another sunny Cyprus day. (Cue the rainbow over the unicorn exhibit.)

May the odds be ever in your favor / wax off


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