A Wild Week Begins

Mon, Mar 25, 2013 - 11:08am

So, with Cyprus "fixed", investors everywhere are selling their gold. That's what the MSM and CNBS will tell you. Of course, nothing could be further from the truth.

You likely noticed that gold fell considerably more than silver this morning. That's unusual, huh? It paints a rather clear picture, though.

  1. The playbook for this sort of thing can be traced back to the wee hours of September 6, 2011. (Rather than spell all of that out again, I'll leave that to you, my dear reader, to explain what I mean.)
  2. Option expiration for the April13 contract is today and the steep drop also allowed The Cartel the opportunity to fiddle around with anyone foolish enough to be short some $1600 puts.
  3. Silver has recently seen extremely strong support on every dip to $28.60, as you'll see on the chart below.

And this is just the beginning. This week is also a holiday-shortened venture, it's the end of the first quarter and First Notice Day for the April13 is Thursday. All in all, if you were made uncomfortable by this morning's action, I strongly suggest that you turn off your computer and take the rest of the week off.

For those willing to stick around, here's what we'll be looking at. Let's start with the hourly charts. First, here's gold, which is clearly rolling over and, having failed to hold $1600, looks likely to fall back toward $1570-1580 sometime this week.

And look at this hourly silver chart. Not only has silver been stuck between $28.40 and $29.40 since February 20 (A streak of nearly five weeks which you won't be able to find anywhere else on the charts unless you go back to at least 2010), for the past two weeks it has essentially been stuck in a 40¢ range. Unprecedented, unbelievable and incredible. A virtual flatline. But...like the proverbial duck analogy...what appears calm on the surface belies great turbulence underneath. On this chart, you can see considerable capping effort being expended at $29. However, you can also see significant bursts of buying every time silver drops to/near/below $28.60. Eventually, one side will win, but, which side will it be???

The longer-term, daily charts continue to show that, for all the short-term hoopla, nothing has really changed. Yes, the metals have been in protracted and forced declines since October BUT all they have done is simply move from the top to the bottom of their current (now 18-month!) ranges. The next "event" we'll be watching will be the interaction of price with the downtrend lines within the ranges. Even that appears to be several weeks away, however. The only truly interesting thing on the gold chart is the incredible similarity between the current time and mid-Dec/mid-Jan, circled in red. Move along, now. Nothing to see here. I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

Just a couple of other things. First, our pal Paul Coghlan is hosting another FREE webinar at Noon EDT today. I highly recommend that you attend. You can register here: https://www.coghlancapital.com/node/5499

The Sprott folks just put out an interesting piece on silver, which I found at ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-03-25/silvers-investment-demand-conundrum

Alasdair Macleod has this terrific write-up on money supply and velocity: https://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/money-supply-accelerating.html

Brent at Santiago Capital has a great new presentation. Just click the link and enter your first name: https://play.goldmail.com/ehlflm5vu00p

And I was on with Dr. Janda again yesterday. You can listen to it here (I always chuckle when he call me "a force in the internet blogosphere): https://www.davejanda.com/audio/TurdFerguson032413.mp3

Have a fun rest of your day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 25, 2013 - 11:09am



Mar 25, 2013 - 11:09am


Another top ten for me.

Mar 25, 2013 - 11:12am

Thanks Turd. Should be a

Thanks Turd. Should be a crazy week. Just bought some Au Buffs.

Mar 25, 2013 - 11:12am

top ten


Mar 25, 2013 - 11:13am


gold is back over 1600!

Mar 25, 2013 - 11:14am

top ten?

yeah baby.

Mar 25, 2013 - 11:18am

Must keep stacking...must

Must keep stacking...must keep finishing in the top ten...must keep the faith...

Larry L
Mar 25, 2013 - 11:18am

Silver Ladies

Where are those Silver Ladies? I feel a buy coming on!

Mar 25, 2013 - 11:20am

Wild Times

Attention: It's now government sanctioned to steal fiat from any and all sources deemed open season on... === 8th Amendment: Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.

Mar 25, 2013 - 11:21am


sweet....what a way to start the week Silver66 edit oops....I mean 5th

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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