Idiots Out Wandering Around

Tue, Mar 19, 2013 - 12:19pm

Why is that, lately, every time I try to get away for a few days, all hell breaks loose?

So, once again, I apologize for another abbreviated post. The Fergusons are currently in the great state of Iowa visiting MrsF's centenarious grandmother. I'll be back in my office by late tomorrow but, for today, I've got to make due.

So, let's start with this. Despite the tireless efforts of the legal teams and several, hard-working industry insiders, The Morgue finally won the permanent dismissal of the silver manipulation civil suit yesterday. Sadly, this does not come as a surprise since the rationale behind the dismissal changed little from the preliminary dismissal late last year. You can read all about it here: But for a more in-depth analysis, I would refer you back to the excellent legal commentary written for us by CALawyer back in very early January:

Moving on, the Cyprus story continues to dominate, as it should. Disregard the misinformation and disinformation. This IS a big deal. That gold and silver have barley budged while the U.S. stock market has rallied back to unchanged should surprise no one. MOPE and manipulation at its finest worst. Remember, at this critical time, gold (and silver) cannot be perceived to be a safe haven and a viable alternative to fiat currency....particularly fiat currency held within the confines of the banking system. With counterparty risk, negative interest rates and now "shared bail-ins", why would any sensible person continue to store wealth in fiat currency? At all cost, gold must be suppressed in order to promote the impression that it is equally unable to preserve wealth. Do not be fooled by this! Global demand remains extraordinarily strong. Fiat-conversion price will, very soon, begin to reflect this physical demand.

Finally, regarding Cyprus, this article from Ben Davies at Hinde Capital is terrific, written not only from a current, but also a historical sense. Please take the time to read through it.

And we must touch upon the GLD again today. Remember, the conventional thinking among mainstream analysts is that GLD is seeing a drawdown due to investor selling and asset re-allocation. You and I both know that this is complete nonsense and that GLD gold is being redeemed and withdrawn by large investors seeking immediate allocation and physical delivery.

Well, the mainstream narrative took a major hit yesterday. In the face of Cyprus, fiat and ECB distrust and a rising gold price, GLD had redemptions of 13.55 metric tonnes or more than 1% of the alleged "inventory"!! This brings the "total gold in trust" down to under 1220 mts, down from 1350 mts a/o 1/1/13. One hundred thirty metric tonnes, nearly 10% of "inventory", has been withdrawn since the first of the year.

As I go to close, I see that gold is surging to new highs for the week. This is constructive but, again, I caution you...I see no reason to get overly-excited until gold moves through and closes above $1626, which is the low of the post New Year decline back in January and the break down point from the Chinese New Year raids. Above that level and the smarty-pant, momo-chasing spec shorts will begin to get vehwy, vehwy, nuhvuss.

Silver is rallying, too, but still unable to draw away from $29 and, like gold, until it breaks back above $29.40 or so, it's still simply banging around within the range.

Finally, I just checked ZH to see if I've missed anything while typing. Not much. Only all of this. Remember, this is simply a "one-off" and "no big deal".

Have a great day and remember that the FOMC is meeting this week and Fedlines are due tomorrow. Keep your helmet and airsickness bag handy.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 20, 2013 - 4:24am

bullish gold

ALGO pattern match highly bullish

GOLD hourly

Mar 20, 2013 - 4:01am

I am really impressed by what

I am really impressed by what Christine Desan has to say. This is really deep.
Unfortunately, her first books about the issue is still in writing and articles are few and old.

After watching her a bit, I made a definition of finance industry that I intend to improve, but so far this is the best I could manage:

"Finance industry is a private industry for profit whose task is to produce liquidity. Its products include broad class of instruments usable as MONEY with different liquidity levels, including currency in some cases ".

Here are the videos I suggest from Cristine Desan - each about 30 min-first one is better, I think, though earlier:

And this (do no know why the text came out red):

BTW, the second one is interesting to watch in whole, in terms of why the USA went independent from Great Britain and Why the USA founding fathers wrote constitution. Very simple:

1) The USA states went for independence because there were few (1750, 1764 or so) laws from Britain that forbade them to create money on their own
2) The USA constitution was made to FORBID the individual states to issue their own money, and distance the decision makers from voters by enlarging their terms of service lengths and creating delegated elections ( multistep elections-e.g Supreme Court, President)

Both steps were all done in the interests of creditor elite of the USA which has grown strong enough by then.

The rest is just attachments of how to put these moneyed interest needs into sell-able democratic form.

Mar 20, 2013 - 3:48am

Chance for GSR to turn around

Chance for GSR to turn around still remains with gold prices leading it higher yesterday, not PM price drop. Silver just has to catch up.

Silver is pushing at the upper line of the triangle that has to resolve today/tomorrow:

Mar 20, 2013 - 2:31am

You asked Stock_Canines

I read your post and had already heard of the details within.

We have basically just started 2013 and somehow, if we all hang in there, maybe, w/any luck, barring unforseen complications, euphoria will strike in 2 to 7 years?

I'm of the impression that the U.S. always had this energy available. We, as a country, chose not to develop it for geo-political reasons.

My concern is will we,as a country, make it 'til then?

Will that energy be for our use or exported like ALL of Keystone?

Even if through peripheral jobs from energy development like construction,service sector,etc. and you get to 3 million jobs that is 12% of jobs needed as of today. ( this figure forgets about those currently underemployed)

And then Obamacare kicks in. READ THAT!

And now who knows the REAL reason for the EU to contemplate taking bank deposits at will. If the EU blows up. (It already has - just nobody will admit it)the contagion worldwide will be mayhem for most everybody.

I'm sure I sound negative to readers but it's not me it's the economic indicators we're all facing. I don't have the luxury to dismiss these as I have a responsibility to other people.

While I want the best for everybody I have to be realistic.

As far as those that pump the future - they are lying to you. They have to. The alternative is ugly. 80 yrs. ago when the bankers did the same thing recall the pres. @ the time 6 mos. after it started stating the worst was over. It lasted 16 more years and we had a world war.

If you feel like it I ask you to watch Brian Williams and Wolf Blitzer do their evening news tomorrow and then think of this post and you decide who told you the truth and who lied to you.

But of course, I could be wrong.


Mar 20, 2013 - 2:25am

Ok, back from work, and the post from 2:00pm follows......

Cyprus is the site of a hostage situation. Terrorists are presenting their demands. Negotiations will continue until those demands are met. The only difference from the usual hostage situation is that once these negotiations conclude, the pattern will be set for all the subsequent hostage situations that WILL follow. Worldwide terror cells await word to strike once again in a new location on another Friday after the markets/banks close. Weekends have taken a newer more dangerous meaning. { I STATED IN A PRIOR POST THAT THE "NORMAL" MARKET CLOSE OVER THE WEEKEND WOULD END AS THE SYSTEM BREAKDOWN SITUATION GREW AND WORSENED. THAT IS HAPPENING NOW.} We are under siege. Will your banks close this weekend? * How can this be considered anything but terror? This falls in the realm of "someone breaking and running for the door"....a weak player has broken and gone rogue by raising the bar. Not only are they devaluing the currency, they are outright stealing the currency of others in broad daylight. This IS A GAME CHANGER. You now have a % of the population that is removing themselves from the path of this onrushing train.....regardless of assurances of "NO DEBT PROBLEM", a % will no longer play in this casino.The quiet bank run will pick up pace in the US and other seemingly unaffected countries. NO REPORT will be the MSM story line....while anecdotal evidence will rise confirming lack of confidence. This looks increasingly like a short cut to the end game. Willie's medium sized bank collapse in Europe could happen before Friday.

Mar 20, 2013 - 2:22am

Flows after Cyprus

Maybe times change but this is a reality. I would prefer PM's but I'm old and dull.

I have no idea how safe this method of mobility is, but worth watching.

Silver daily .

BITCOIN daily.

Paradigm shift or pyramid scheme.

But worth watching.

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Mar 20, 2013 - 1:47am

@agauinvest Jim Sinclair reposting

@AgAuinvest -

Occasionally, I have the same concerns you expressed, but in this case the concern is not with Jim. He's making an allegory/metaphor comparison between the Cypriot situation popping up in the middle of the EU with the surfacing of a Chinese PLA submarine during US Pacific Fleet exercises.

Since he's getting ready to do a formal presentation tomorrow, may be Irene can ask him about the posting.

I had two thoughts.

1. Did Chinese hackers take down Harvey, TFMR, and Jim Sinclair's site and then leave that post as a tracer?


2. More likely, Jim Sinclair is posting the story about the Chinese sub surfacing in the middle of our Pacific fleet exercise as a reminder of the hubris that can affect our thinking. The chinese sub is similar to the Cypriot issue. There are many international political and military consequences of both incidents that are metaphorical and allegory between the two events.

The sub apparently surfaced out of no where...kinda like the Cypriots coming out of no where with this issue for the Euro zone.

Mar 20, 2013 - 1:17am
Mar 20, 2013 - 1:14am

What site problems ?

I've had no problem posting my mirth and wisdom .... you have to be on the creative inner circle posters list .... that's all .... keep trying .... and keep all that good stuff coming ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Cyprus Style Trial Balloon Is Anyone Out There World Tour

Mar 20, 2013 - 12:32am


The EE seem to be trying harder to ensure Ag stays below $29 than Au below 1600-1605? Is that a reflection of the supply situation or just that Post-Cyprus there is much more interest in Au Physical so more difficult to manipulate? Thoughts?

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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