Gold and Silver Prices Still Rangebound

472
Fri, Mar 15, 2013 - 12:23pm

As we wrap up another rangebound week, let's look ahead and hope for a better week next.

First of all, thank you for your patience as we've tried to fix the site. The server company took the site down last night in order to update a few things and then The Tech Team did the same this morning. For now, here's the deal: We need to curtail certain types of attachments to comments. Photos and gifs are clogging up the site as they often link back to another source and, if that source has slow or disabled servers, it jams up the servers here. YouTube links and charts are OK but some of this other stuff needs to be diminished if not removed entirely. Thanks for your help with this. (Speaking of help...I've run up quite a tab with The Tech Team this week trying to fix the site. Any "Turd Food" you care to pass along would be, as always, greatly appreciated.)

Regarding the "sticky" post at the top of the homepage, I just want to clarify one thing. Though it's true that JPM is TooBigToJail and that their influence on the markets remains, my point regarding the "London Whale" investigation is this:

There are, quite literally, millions of people who do not believe that the metals markets are manipulated. Within the blogosphere, there are quite a few vocal naysayers who parrot the views put forth by JPM that their activities in the metals are "fully hedged" and "made on behalf of clients". So I ask you, if JPM is willing to deliberately mislead Congress in the London Whale investigation, do you still think that Blythe Masters was being truthful when she appeared on CNBS a year ago to address silver manipulation?

Here is what you need to understand:

  • Bruno Iksil dug himself an impossibly deep hole trading in interest rate futures.
  • Once word got out that he was cornered, the other banks and hedge funds attacked.
  • Losses first estimated at $2B ended up approaching $10B.
  • Similarly, JPM finds itself increasingly isolated as the seller of last resort in silver.
  • Once word gets out that they have lied and deceived and that they are cornered, other banks and hedge funds will attack.
  • Is this already happening? Is this why the gross commercial long position remains well over 50,000 contracts when the historical norm is closer to 30,000-35,000?

I'm continually asked how I think this will all end and, frankly, I don't know. It's impossible to say. The most likely scenario would still seem to be a "managed default", similar to the Maine Potato Default of the 1970s (https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1988&dat=19760526&id=a2YiAAAAIBAJ&sjid=06wFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1377,2637833) and a cash settlement of Comex futures contracts after which some measure of true price discovery will be found on other, global exchanges. Again, though, who knows? What I do know is this...This will all be ending, relatively soon. It won't continue forever.

And while we pound away on JPM today, let's wrap up with this link, sent to me by email overnight. It's lengthy but it's certainly well-written and interesting. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/03/david-dayen-out-of-control-new-report-exposes-jpmorgan-chase-as-mostly-a-criminal-enterprise.html

And now let's get to the charts. This week, we have seen a very active and spirited defense of the $1600 level in gold. In continued in earnest today and there must be a considerable amount of buy-stops above that level for it to be defended so vigorously. Regardless, pressure continues to build under the market and I expect $1600 to give way early next week (pre or post FOMC?) and then a move toward the next resistance level of $1620. Silver has also been capped this week and it's $1 trading range has now been extended to an incredible 17 trading days. Remarkable! Again, though, I firmly believe that a brief rally is building that will take silver back UP to the red trendline that has contained it since early October. As of today, that lines resides near $30.50. The main question then becomes: What happens next? Do silver and gold roll over again and retest the mid-February lows or do they break through and begin a new trend, back toward the top of the broader, 18-month range?

Lastly, another new CoT will be released in a few hours. For the reporting week, gold was up $17 and its OI rose by about 9,000 contracts. Silver rose 57¢ and its OI rose by 1,200. I think we can anticipate what the gold CoT will show...namely a 9000 net long increase for the specs and a 9000 net short increase for The Gold Cartel. Silver, though, will be interesting again. What if the entire increase comes from commercial longs with an equivalent increase in the JPM and friend short position? That would be quite interesting, indeed. We shall see. As usual, I'll post some thoughts immediately following the release of the report so check back later today and be sure to look through the comments section of this thread. (While reading/commenting just don't post a 2-second gif of something getting flattened by a steamroller or a fat guy dancing. Thanks!)

Have a great day and a great weekend. Get ready for a wild week next with the FOMC Tuesday and Wednesday!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  472 Comments

billhilly
Mar 15, 2013 - 12:51pm

Scrib'd ... attn. "Turd"

I don't know if this is an issue for others or not but when a "Scribd" document is included in the article it really slows down my speed (I have a slow connection anyway)...and then, it happens every time I change the page too.

Is it possible to have just a "link" to an article as opposed to the entire (307 pages for the JPM article) article being posted ? I also find the same trouble over at ZH.

Sorry to be a headache, if I am so being.

And of course, many many thanks for all you do Big T

dropout
Mar 15, 2013 - 1:09pm

Honor Among Theives

There is none!

Looks like Ina Drew was supposed to take one for the team.

Instead, she gave it back and then some!

When it comes to "throwing under the bus" its they who throw first, thats not flattened.

The Wall street sharks are constantly circling. Theres blood in the water. They can smell it!

"Oh Jamie Boy, the pipes are callin..." Or, is that "Islands in the Sun"?

indosil
Mar 15, 2013 - 1:10pm

@Charts

I just hope the helpful charts won't be blocked

my mothers keeper
Mar 15, 2013 - 1:34pm

my sister and her husband are

my sister and her husband are asleep. they have lived the american middle class dream of a home (paid for), two children successfully raised to become responsible members of their communities, two pensions earned as well as considerable savings (i'm sure...they are real penny pinchers) stored. they feel secure with their stash of money in pensions and 401k's and their credit union.

i've been poking them since about 2005, trying to wake them up, and they know it's not all ok, but they just cannot lose their normalcy bias. they look to their president and their fellow countrymen and women to make it better.

they bought a monster box in 2009 at $44 (on the way down). now, when i mention precious metals, they just roll their eyes...

i'm sure there are millions of other people in this country like them. this may be the story that wakes them up...that causes them to turn back to precious metals to protect their savings. this senate report could be that black swan...but then again, probably not...they've slept through so much, already.


https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/03/david-dayen-out-of-control-new-r...

heyJoe
Mar 15, 2013 - 1:37pm

Fed the Turd

Thank you for providing this site. I greatly appreciate your insight and the input from the posters. Collectively, there is a great amount of helpful info provided here.

Also, the trading info provided at the forum from the 'argentus maximus' and 'pailins trading corner' threads has been tremendous. I see you put up with a lot of crap here. Just wanted to let you know for me this site and TTM is worth every penny.

Take care.

indosil
Mar 15, 2013 - 1:45pm

All other charts are missing

All other charts are missing .........so we won't get to see any more charts from others??

hammerman
Mar 15, 2013 - 1:56pm

well done again turd

when will americans wake up? the JPM story should have been the straw to break..... well you get the point. geeez now i see why you made the washout/washboard/pimp breaker call and why it still stands. your one true american turd....... boooyah to all the sleepy americans and may they burn when the market finally crashes................ weeeeeeeeeeeeeee

¤
Mar 15, 2013 - 2:02pm

1 Gold Buffalo...

...on the way from Apmex. :-)

I checked out Goldmart and like the spot prices and registered there but the $69.95 S/H threw me at the end so I went with Apmex for the $10 they charge me there. Either way it's a lot of money no matter how you slice it.

I can't be the only one who hesitates sometimes when it's time to verify the order and commit to the purchase. It's quite a bit of money for one piece of gold for most of us but in the end I believe in my convictions and where this gold situation is headed.

I now hereby give permission for gold/silver to go nutso asap :-)

¤
Mar 15, 2013 - 2:06pm

indosil

I think the images being gone is just temporary as the admin. worms their way through the site or servers looking for whatever culprit might be responsible.

Hopefully its an off-site issue and not eminating from here.

stealthbear
Mar 15, 2013 - 2:11pm

@flood

I assume you meant to say they bought a monster box at $44.00 in 2011, not 2009.

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