Gold and Silver Rebound

Fri, Mar 8, 2013 - 11:19am

Another day, another gun of the sell-stops. That's four days in a row. Most folks call it a rebound. 'Round these parts, we call it an FUBM!

First of all, what did we learn from the BLSBS? Well, of course, not much. That's by design. But if we pick at it a little bit, we find:

  • January numbers restated much lower.
  • Full-time jobs declining by 77,000 while part-time jobs increasing by 102,000.
  • The number of people working two jobs going up by 340,000.
  • And the participation rate falling again as over 100,000 simply "left the workforce".

Hmmmm. Not so rosy after all, is it Mr. LIESman? No wonder your head's so shiny today!

Anyway, since I printed these first six charts an hour ago, things have turned a bit. Nonetheless, they're still relevant and paint a rather interesting and confusing picture.

First of all, look at these currencies. Always remember and never forget that the POSX simply measures The Pig versus a basket of other, fiat currencies, primarily the euro. A rising dollar does not always indicate Pig preferability. Often, it's just a sign that it's every other currency's turn in the barrel.

Clearly, all kinds of "money" are pouring into the dollar. But where is it going? Not the bond market, that's for sure! I guess now you know why the stock market rallies day-after-day.

So, anyway, as we've been seeing all week, the sell-stops were run again this morning, prompting the significant move to the downside. Predictably, the bounce then squeezed all of the new shorts that jumped on the bandwagon and we got our FUBM. Now, just as predictably, the metals are giving back those gains as the momo-chasing HFTs that sold short, then got flipped long, are now being jammed back lower. Monotonous? Yes. However, all of this daily churning is creating a very nice and solid floor under price. This will benefit us greatly next week and through this month.

First, here is today's stop run:

On these hourly charts you can see the last four days of stop-running:

However, all of this stuff has unwittingly created very nice floors under the markets.

So, I wouldn't expect much action of consequence for the rest of the day. We'll probably drift around with a little bit of volatility but nothing like we saw between 8:30 and 9:30. Expect pressure and no new daily highs as you can be certain that The Cartel doesn't want to see a significant, higher weekly close. Next week looks positive enough as it is and they won't want to make the charts look any better than they already do. FYI, gold closed last Friday at $1572.30 and silver closed at 28.49.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 8, 2013 - 11:21am



Mar 8, 2013 - 11:22am


yes you are

Mar 8, 2013 - 11:24am



Mar 8, 2013 - 11:26am

Shiney head index- way up!

This guy still can't touch Liesman's dome...

Fr. Bill
Mar 8, 2013 - 11:27am

Suxth sounds weird ...

. . . . so I'll have to stick with sixth.

Oh well ...

Silver Alert
Mar 8, 2013 - 11:27am


I was getting a bit dismayed after the BLSBS report this morning but will take what I can get. At least miners are up on the day. So far.

Mar 8, 2013 - 11:29am

Today's price rally

Well, that was the rally I was looking for & I liquidated part of my stake into it as I had planned. My trading position is now 43% cash, and now I am in buy mode only, on selected dips.

Time will tell whether this was a profitable move or not, but in one sense I have a concrete success; referencing back to my presentation on divesting, I had a plan and I stuck to it. It was clinical execution, and an excellent rehearsal.

Bring on the spike!

Mar 8, 2013 - 11:29am

Top Tennish


EDIT: It pays to be a realist

Mar 8, 2013 - 11:30am

rest of day

they may try to get Apr gold to touch 1,570 - no doubt sell stops right there.

Mar 8, 2013 - 11:45am
Be Prepared
Mar 8, 2013 - 11:49am

Greece "concessioning" their Airports...the kitchen sink is next

Plans for regional airport concession, development

Investors will bid for two groups of 7 up to 11 air terminals

By Giorgos Lialios

Twenty-one regional airports will be split into two groups to be conceded to private investors for a period of about 30-35 years, the government announced on Thursday, without saying how much the project was expected to raise in state revenues.

The plans that Development Minister Costis Hatzidakis and state privatization fund (TAIPED) chief executive Yiannis Emiris presented on Thursday generally provide for airports on mainland Greece, the Ionian islands and Crete to comprise one group, and others on the Aegean islands to make up the other.

Group 1 will consist of Thessaloniki, Corfu, Zakynthos, Cephalonia, Aktio, Kavala and Hania airports, with an option for the investor to add those of Alexandroupoli, Araxos and Kalamata. Group 2 will be the terminals on Rhodes, Kos, Myconos, Santorini, Skiathos, Mytilene and Samos, with the additional option of Chios, Limnos and Karpathos. Nea Anchialos Airport near Volos may be added to either of the groups.

Emiris explained that it is only the operation and development of the airports that will be conceded, while the state will retain ownership and monitoring rights through the Civil Aviation Authority.

Tenders will start immediately and concession contracts will last 30 to 35 years, with an extension option. Crucially, investors will be able to utilize the area around the airports by creating commercial parks.

Private investors will be expected to bring the airports up to the standard of Athens International Airport (AIA), and Emiris stated that this would entail an investment of some 200 million euros for each.

Only after the upgrade is completed will airport charges be allowed to be increased.

Hatzidakis said that the country’s other airports will be run by the Regional Airport Management Company, and that next year the special tax imposed on travelers using AIA will be replaced by a common charge for all Greek airports, with part of the revenues going toward small airstrips and subsidizing unpopular routes.

Be Prepared
Mar 8, 2013 - 11:53am

Cheap oil to the rescue, economist predicts

DENVER (MarketWatch) — Economist Robert Z. Aliber didn’t hedge his prediction on what a barrel of oil will cost one year from today.

“It will be at $56.65,” he declared, down sharply from its current level of about $90.

Aliber is a professor emeritus from the University of Chicago. He once worked beside Milton Friedman, and he authors and edits books, including the well-known tome, “Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises.”

Al Lewis Robert Z. Aliber

Each year, he comes to Colorado to deliver his annual forecast to University of Chicago alumni who’ve managed to escape the flatlands surrounding the Windy City to settle near the ski slopes. Unimaginably cheap oil, he predicts, will finally kick the U.S. economic recovery into high gear.

“We’re in for a massive price decline,” he told his audience. “It will be like a tax cut for all of us.”

Families will have more disposable income, businesses will have much lower operating expenses, and trillions of dollars now tied up in gas tanks will flow into the broader world economy.

High oil prices are a huge contributor to our global economic malaise. Oil importing countries — including the U.S. — are running enormous trade deficits with oil exporting countries, from Norway and Russia to nations of the Middle East.

This ultimately creates a destructive deflationary drag on the global economy. Japan, for instance, must sell ever more inexpensive goods to raise the money it needs to buy oil, he explained. Meanwhile, oil-exporting countries mostly just sit on their oil money.

“Oil-importing countries will essentially spend the money now being saved by the oil-exporting countries,” Aliber predicted.

On the day the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally broke through its all-time high, Aliber delivered what he called his most optimistic economic forecast in 15 years. <Rest of the Article>


Oil will hit below $60 within a year? hmmmm? Don't think so...

Mar 8, 2013 - 11:55am

TFMR Turdite Meet up Photos

Great time yesterday was had by Mariposa, her wonderful mother, Silversurfer and me. Ate a nice steak lunch at the Lonestar Steak House. Took some photos, wanted to share.

I only wish we had more time together, it was great!

Take care everybody!

<edit: not sure how to upload photos? Anyone?>

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:07pm

Just Bank Participation Report

Dated material but interesting nonetheless. The increase in short positions through January capped the markets and set up the banks for the drop over the past three weeks. FWIW...

Long Futures Short Futures

02/05/13 CMX SILVER U.S. 1,292 0.9 41,484 27.4 151,512 NON U.S. 15,164 10.0 30,534 20.2 ---- --------- ---- --------- ---- 17 16,456 10.9 72,018 47.5
01/08/13 CMX SILVER U.S. 1,667 1.2 33,903 24.6 137,542 NON U.S. 14,118 10.3 29,031 21.1 ---- --------- ---- --------- ---- 17 15,785 11.5 62,934 45.8 
02/05/13 CMX GOLD U.S. 4 37,677 8.9 106,977 25.2 423,982 NON U.S. 20 30,272 7.1 79,006 18.6 ---- --------- ---- --------- ---- 24 67,949 16.0 185,983 43.9
01/08/13 CMX GOLD U.S. 4 35,210 8.0 117,414 26.6 441,304 NON U.S. 19 32,191 7.3 78,038 17.7 ---- --------- ---- --------- ---- 23 67,401 15.3 195,452 44.3

Bank Participation Report

Explanatory Notes

Since the 1980s, the CFTC has provided, on a monthly basis, the U.S. banking authorities and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, located in Basel, Switzerland) aggregate large-trader positions of banks participating in various financial and non-financial commodity futures. Since the BIS used some of this aggregate data in its own publications, beginning in the late ‘90s the CFTC has posted the “Bank Participation Report” (BPR) for public access on its website (

Separate reports are generated for futures and for gross options (not delta adjusted). The as-of date of the monthly BPR is typically the first Tuesday of each month, and publication on the Commission’s website occurs on the following Thursday or Friday. The BPR includes data for every market where five or more banks hold reportable positions. The BPR breaks the banks’ positions into two categories—U.S. Banks and Non-U.S. Banks—and shows for each type their aggregate gross long and short market positions. For purposes of protecting the confidentiality of participants’ market positions (as required under §8(a) of the Commodity Exchange Act), when the number of banks in either category (U.S. Banks or Non-U.S. Banks) is less than four, the number of banks in each of the two categories is omitted and only the total number of banks is shown for that market.

The BPR is based on the same large-trader reporting system database that CFTC economists use to monitor large-trader activity in the regulated futures and options markets, and which also is used to generate the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The BPR’s “U.S. Bank” and “Non-U.S. Bank” trader classifications are based on the self-description of a trading entity on its CFTC Form 40. Each trader files that Form upon first becoming reportable and every two years the trader remains reportable, or more frequently upon CFTC request.

If any reportable trader is “commercially engaged in business activities hedged by use of the futures or option markets,” it enumerates its business activities on Schedule 1 of the Form 40. If on that Schedule the reportable trader describes itself as a U.S. Commercial Bank or as a Non-U.S. Commercial Bank in any one commodity, that designation is applied to its positions in all commodities published in the BPR. A given business enterprise may have one or more trading entity among which are a U.S Commercial Bank or a Non-U.S. Commercial Bank, or a non-bank. Each trading entity could be a separate reportable trader, which would file a separateForm 40. Only traders that are classified as either a U.S. Commercial Bank or a Non-U.S. Commercial Bank are reported in the BPR.

The CFTC does not maintain a history of BPR data except for the rolling most recent 25 months posted on the Commission’s website.

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:08pm

What a resource this site is

Last input re LT

After reading all the comments yesterday; there seems one take away.

Many people are the victims of bullies until they decide that they will be bullied no further. Then the bullying stops.

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:09pm

I see that all of my copying

I see that all of my copying and pasting didn't come through too well. If you're really interested in this, you can look it up for yourself here:

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:10pm


In the toolbar of the comment section, immediately to the left of the red flash "f", is the icon for "image".

Click it.

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:11pm

PM attack was right on schedule

I'm very pleasantly surprised by the solid buying into the attack. Very bullish!

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:12pm

Unwinding the Fed

If I remember correctly, the common theme is that the Fed cannot raise rates or the coiled spring is released, and all of the bad parts of TEOTGKE begin to take form.

That being said, I have yet to hear discussion on if the Fed allows the bonds they own to mature. I could have missed it. If it has not been discussed because it is an unlikely scenario; I offer this as a point to begin the discussion:

Fed mulls putting a "not for sale" sign on its assets

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is considering jettisoning a plan to eventually sell off the massive haul of bonds it is now buying, a politically defensive strategy that would have the added benefit of supporting the economy for years to come.

In what would be a revision of their blueprint for the eventual tightening of monetary policy, Fed officials have said they could simply allow the trillions of dollars in securities they have bought through three rounds of quantitative easing to mature.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other officials have said a decision not to sell the mortgage and Treasury bonds would only add about a year to the process of returning the central bank's balance sheet to a more normal size of around $1 trillion, probably around 2020. It is worth some $3 trillion now, and could swell to near $4 trillion by year end.

While a new "exit strategy" is not likely to emerge from the Fed's next meeting on March 19-20, officials plan to review the blueprint soon because it has not been updated since mid-2011.

Is this just more hot air, or is this a way to kick the can further that has not been given equal time in discussion? I am curious to know what the community thinks on this topic, and your thoughts, O captain, my captain, would be most appreciated.

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:13pm

Your primary takeaway from today's BLSBS

From ZH:

"The media's ecstatic read through of today's Nonfarm payroll beat can barely end: after all, a print of 236k on expectations of 165K, why that has to be great. Well, it is. Until one looks to the number from February 2012, which happens to be 271,000. And even the Keynesian will agree that February follows January, which in 2013 was a downward revised 119K. January 2012?311,000. In other words, the first two months of 2012 saw a 582,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. In 2013: 355,000. But something else happened between February 29, 2012 and February 28, 2012... Oh yes, the US government issued some $1,198,397,883,967.30 in debt. Oh, and the Fed monetized about half of this amount, and virtually all of the Treasurys issued to the right of the ZIRP period (i.e., risky debt). To summarize: $1.2 trillion in debt buys the US.... 61% of the jobs created a year ago."

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:15pm

Nostradamus (fae the last thread)

But doesn't he talk about a place "where the eagle has his feast"? Sounds bullish to me. Then there's the Angolmois. Surely a reference to Mongolian tugriks.

[And any other twisted translations are most welcome.]

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:17pm
Mar 8, 2013 - 12:19pm

Now I feel like a champ!

I bought 9 oz silver around the bottom at $28.50 or so. Should I get all optimistic and buy on this upswing? If only I had more time to get to the LCS. I hope they still have American Eagles in the bullion box next time!

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:20pm

Had to think of you folks ...

I usually don't participate in such off-topic discussion, but I saw this pic on another site and couldn't help thinking of the community here ... (btw, getting to be time for dinner in my timezone) ... best regards!

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:21pm

Bullard on Debt Monetization: "I think it's going to be awhile..

March 8, 2013, 11:52 a.m. EST

Fed's Bullard sees continued bond buying

By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue with its $85-billion-a-month bond buying program, said James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, on Friday. "I think it's going to be a while on the QE program," Bullard said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. The Fed has said it will review its asset purchase program, known as quantitative easing, at its two-day meeting on March 19 and 20. Some Fed officials are worried that the program is fueling financial instability. But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies have signaled that tapering the purchases too soon could damage the recovery.

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:28pm

March silver

any one have the final numbers for those that were standing for MARCH delivery....I mean payment?

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:28pm
Mar 8, 2013 - 12:30pm

Cal Lawyer

Go to:

and click "Try it now" and it should create a link for sharing with those who don't have drop box.

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:32pm

Italy Takes Rating Hit / BBB+ Negative Outlook

March 8, 2013, 12:25 p.m. EST

Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB plus

By William L. Watts

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Fitch Ratings on Friday cut Italy's sovereign credit rating to BBB plus from A minus, citing the inconclusive outcome of last month's parliamentary elections and a deeper recession. The outlook on Italy's rating is negative, the firm said, which means the country could see another downgrade. With Italian politicians scrambling to form a government, "increased political uncertainty and [a] non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession," Fitch said, in a news release. Meanwhile, data indicate the country's recession may be deeper and more protracted than previously expected, Fitch said, causing Italy's debt to peak in 2013 at close to 130% of gross domestic product. Fitch previously forecast a peak of 125% in mid-

Mar 8, 2013 - 12:36pm
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2/20 2:00 ET January FOMC Minutes
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2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
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2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
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2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
2/7 9:30 ET Goon Clarida speech
2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories