Saturday Gold and Silver

341
Sat, Mar 2, 2013 - 12:47pm

It looks more and more like the next two weeks or so are going to be significant.

So, where do we start on this fine Saturday? How about with something from Friday? I posted these two charts into the comments section of yesterday's post. They show a classic short/theft tactic. Someone, either an HFT or a Cartel monkey, pulled the trigger on a sell order in silver at the very thin trading hour of 4:00 a.m., New York time. Since silver was sitting right on top of the previous week's lows, the effect was predictable. A host of sell-stops were "harvested" as price quickly fell about 50¢. Note then that price quickly recovered as liquidity returned with the opening of the Comex session.

Why did I start there today, you ask?

  1. Because now $28.40 is a very important level to watch early next week in silver, and,
  2. It is becoming increasingly likely that the same trick is going to get played out on a much larger scale in both gold and silver before a final bottom is put in and price permanently reverses.

Let's next visit our three friends...Crude, DrC and Sylvia. Do they have any clues for us? Why, yes, they do as a matter of fact. All three have come down dramatically and all three give the appearance of having a bit further to go. And if "commodities in general" show additional weakness over the next 7-10 days, you can probably imagine that selling pressure compounding our problems in gold and silver.

So let's start with silver. Running the stops yesterday has fortunately provided us with a very clear level to watch at $28.40. If silver slips below there again early next week, it would be a near certainty that we are going to take at least one trip down below $28. There has consistently been a lot of support there so taking it much lower is going to be a task for The Bad Guys.

That said, I'm beginning to sense that the ultimate goal of this entire event is to harvest the stops below $26. IF this happens...and currently I'd put the odds at about 25%...a quick drop to $25ish would be your final bottom. Price would quickly recover back above $26 and this deliberate beatdown would be over. How can I say that? More on that in a few minutes. First, two more charts:

And gold could very easily suffer the same fate. If The Cartel can engender enough additional spec selling, a veritable cornucopia of sell stops lay waiting for them sub-1530. And you can just imagine the reaction in the media: "GOLD IN BEAR MARKET!!" will be screamed as loudly as possible in the hopes of inspiring even more selling. Like silver, I only give this about 1 chance in 4 of happening but we must be on the lookout and prepare mentally. IF this occurs, you must be strong and BUY, not sell. The spike low will be The Bottom.

Now lets get back to why I am so confident that the selling has already been stretched to unsustainable levels and why, IF a spike low occurs, the metals would quickly recover. It's all in the CoT.

Yes I know that Santa claimed this week that the CoT is fudged and unreliable and yes I know that Santa has forgotten more about the metals markets that I know.....but....Unlce Ted believes in this stuff and so do I. Here's what Ted said in his mid-week newsletter:

"One of the reasons I think the data in the COT are accurate is that every contract has a long and short side. Therefore, to lie in the large trader reporting system that underlies the compilation of the COT, would require two lies; one by the big commercial lying and another by the counterparty holding the opposite side of the contract. I can see JPMorgan wanting to lie on its COMEX holdings, but I can’t see why a counterparty tech fund or speculator would assist in that lie. Please remember that lying on a large trader report is illegal and will be prosecuted by the CFTC (one of the few things they do well)."

With this in mind, here's a c&p of my CoT comments from yesterday:

For the Wed-Tue reporting week, gold was up $10 but total OI fell by 13,432. Silver fell by 17¢ and OI fell by 9,728.
The only interesting thing in the gold CoT was the divergence between LargeSpecs and SmallSpecs. The LargeSpecs went net long 13,000 contracts while the small specs went net short 7,400. This, my friends, is called leading the HFTs by their collective noses. On the bounce, the LargeSpecs covered shorts and went long to the tune of 13,000 contracts. Once fleeced, the "market" rolled back over and now all of those new longs (at 1600+) are under water.
Once again, the real interesting stuff is in silver. Both the Large and Small specs were adding to their shorts. The Large Specs sold a net 4,700 contracts and the Smalls sold a net 2,300. The commercials also sold 1,700 longs, dropping their gross long position back to a still-whopping 52,509. All of this selling allowed the naked short Cartel members to cover a massive 8,769 shorts or about 9% of their total gross short position! Now at 83,395, The Silver Cartel has been able to trim their short position by over 15,500 contracts, from 98,979 just two weeks ago. That's a drop of 16% in two weeks while price fell $2 from $31 to $29. I'm sure that's just good timing and good fortune...at least that's what Cueball and Thunderlips think.

On the bright side...

  • The total "commercial" long position in silver is actually up over the past two weeks while JPM et al have been covering. On 2/12/13, the gross comm long position was 52,182. As stated above, as of 2/26, it was still 52,509.
  • The Large Specs are racing to get short. On 2/5/13, the Large Specs were only short a record low 6,588 contracts. Three short weeks later, they're short a total 16,016, an increase of 143%!
  • The Large Specs are also feverishly dumping longs. Three weeks ago they were gross long 42,449. As f last Tuesday, that position had been whittled down to 37,753. That's a drop of 11%.
  • And the Large Spec net long ratio, which just 3 weeks ago was totally out of whack at 6.44:1, has fallen all the way back to 2.38:1. Remember, as a general rule, anything under 3 is somewhat bullish and anything over 4 is somewhat bearish. Anything under 2:1 is extremely bullish. For examples, see here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4492/strange-days-indeed
  • Also, all that Cartel short covering has further dropped the Cartel net short ratio. Last week it was 1.70:1 and this week it is 1.59:1. Again, historically, anything approaching 3:1 is very bad. Anything near 1.5:1 is very good.

I don't know if I can pound the table much harder. Could price be forced even lower, taking out $28 and heading toward $26? Yes, of course it can. But, if it does, the silver market will reach and surpass the exact same extremes that indicated bottoms in October of 2011, December of 2011 and August of 2012.

Again, please go back and looks at the "Strange Days Indeed" post from three weeks ago. ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4492/strange-days-indeed) The data is compelling and telling. Both metals, when measured by The Cartel net short ratio, have reached very bullish levels and stop-running spike lows would make them more extremely bullish than any other time that I can recall. Simply put, with CoT history as a guide, there is NO WAY that gold is going to $1200 and silver to $18 or even $22. Not from this CoT structure!

Moving on...Speaking of the CoT, one of your fellow Turdites has constructed a site to help everyone read and interpret the data. It can be found here: https://goldsilvercot.com/charts/cot/index.php

As you know, Santa's company TRX is an advertiser on this site. Someday soon, the miners will turn and I have great faith in Santa and his company for the long term. Last week, they held their annual shareholder meeting and the entire thing was recorded and posted. Here's a link. I think you'll enjoy watching it: https://standrewsclubav.ca/webcast/client_tanzanian/20130228/

And you've probably noticed that we've had to add a captcha to the registration and login process here. Sorry but it was necessary. If you've never run a site before, you simply wouldn't believe the amount and intensity of the spamming effort out there. They really slow site performance so it is hoped that the captcha will help us all in enjoying and learning from the site.

OK, that's it for now. Enjoy your weekend but please be aware of continued volatility next week and do not allow yourself to get all freaked out by the temporary price action. Keep your wits about you and remember the fundamentals. Stay strong and keep the faith. Continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

p.s. Adding these ZH links which were posted Saturday afternoon. Don't want you to miss this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/hedging-funds-and-physical-vs-paper-gold. AND YOU MUST READ THIS: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/why-jpmorgans-gold-vault-largest-world-located-next-new-york-fed

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  341 Comments

Picky Nicky
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:04pm

I'm Confused About Statement Re Gold COT

Sorry, this COT newbie is missing something wrt the comments about the Gold COT. I thought the Large Specs (vs. the Small Specs) are supposed to be the "smarter" money. But they're the ones who went long and subsequently got fleeced? Thanks.

Be Prepared
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:08pm
¤
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:12pm

Swineflogger

Wow! That is one big cat.

I couldn't imagine having something like that (as beautiful as it is) wandering around my neighborhood or town. Sending your kids out to play would take on a whole new meaning.

Filter - Hey Man, Nice Shot (Official Music Video)
fast moverPicky Nicky
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:14pm

@Picky

As I understand the players:

Commercials -Bullion Banks (BB)

Large Specs - Hedge funds and the like

Small Specs - retail investors (like the E*Trade baby)

Producers (farmers, miners, etc.) use the futures markets to hedge, just as industry (Apple needs silver for iPads and SouthWest Air needs fuel) needs commodities to operate. Somewhere along the way, fiat was invented to "help" transact...which ultimately led to this mess we are in.

In this game, it is one against all. Anybody can be fleeced by the casino (BB).

FM

bucktooth
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:15pm

Mr Fix has been found.

The wife ... still at home waiting on her new BMW. The kitchen, well, it still has the old tile countertops.

pbfurn
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:16pm

The Rationalist

Great idea! Count me in. 27 thumbs-up!

SheetrockerTheRationalist
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:16pm

@TheRationalist

I think it's a good idea. To start a new forum topic, just go to Forums. Pick any topic heading such as Futures/Options Brokers. These will be in red letters on the left side. Click on the same. When it comes up, there will be a box on the top left that says "New Topic". Click on it and start your new topic.

hammerman
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:28pm

agree totally turd... 2 weeks is about rite...

no matter how you get there 3/27/2013 will be a very big market moving day..... the tide will receed and we will find out who is swimming naked.... the final slow grind into a 3rd world hell hole will and has been well underway... it will be there as it has been for 3 years for all who are awake and have eyes to see.... and have courage to remain awake... ( you really got no choice though once your awake) thanks for doing your part turd..... just hope it hasn't been just a waste of time........ i am just tired of the slow death... just bring it now .... the hardest part of dying is the wait?

Kcap
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:41pm

@Turd (and T. Butler)

I would tend to agree that Butler is right with re: to the CoT, given the 2 way street of long vs. short recording of positions within the CoT.

BUT...

What if there is a JPM arm, private hedge fund out there, that settles as a Large Spec, who does the other side of the trade for JPM and WOULD BE WILLING to misrepresent itself and its other half for that matter, within the reporting on the CoT report?

I don't think this is too far fetched.

Either way, March is here. Expect the drive down...I think your gunning the stops target below $26 is more like 75% chance as they can easily short with mega-power, but the bounce back will make it as though it never happened...as I mentioned in a previous post, 24-48 hours, the tracks will have been covered. And then....hopefully, NET NEUTRALITY is here.

Kcap

TheRationalist
Mar 2, 2013 - 3:46pm

fbfurn and Treeshocker

Thanks for your help, support and advice. I'll do as you suggest.

In the meantime, if any traders out there who use Andy's service would like to assist us newbies, please post soon.

Join TWATS (Tudites Want Andy To Succeed)

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