Saturday Gold and Silver

341
Sat, Mar 2, 2013 - 12:47pm

It looks more and more like the next two weeks or so are going to be significant.

So, where do we start on this fine Saturday? How about with something from Friday? I posted these two charts into the comments section of yesterday's post. They show a classic short/theft tactic. Someone, either an HFT or a Cartel monkey, pulled the trigger on a sell order in silver at the very thin trading hour of 4:00 a.m., New York time. Since silver was sitting right on top of the previous week's lows, the effect was predictable. A host of sell-stops were "harvested" as price quickly fell about 50¢. Note then that price quickly recovered as liquidity returned with the opening of the Comex session.

Why did I start there today, you ask?

  1. Because now $28.40 is a very important level to watch early next week in silver, and,
  2. It is becoming increasingly likely that the same trick is going to get played out on a much larger scale in both gold and silver before a final bottom is put in and price permanently reverses.

Let's next visit our three friends...Crude, DrC and Sylvia. Do they have any clues for us? Why, yes, they do as a matter of fact. All three have come down dramatically and all three give the appearance of having a bit further to go. And if "commodities in general" show additional weakness over the next 7-10 days, you can probably imagine that selling pressure compounding our problems in gold and silver.

So let's start with silver. Running the stops yesterday has fortunately provided us with a very clear level to watch at $28.40. If silver slips below there again early next week, it would be a near certainty that we are going to take at least one trip down below $28. There has consistently been a lot of support there so taking it much lower is going to be a task for The Bad Guys.

That said, I'm beginning to sense that the ultimate goal of this entire event is to harvest the stops below $26. IF this happens...and currently I'd put the odds at about 25%...a quick drop to $25ish would be your final bottom. Price would quickly recover back above $26 and this deliberate beatdown would be over. How can I say that? More on that in a few minutes. First, two more charts:

And gold could very easily suffer the same fate. If The Cartel can engender enough additional spec selling, a veritable cornucopia of sell stops lay waiting for them sub-1530. And you can just imagine the reaction in the media: "GOLD IN BEAR MARKET!!" will be screamed as loudly as possible in the hopes of inspiring even more selling. Like silver, I only give this about 1 chance in 4 of happening but we must be on the lookout and prepare mentally. IF this occurs, you must be strong and BUY, not sell. The spike low will be The Bottom.

Now lets get back to why I am so confident that the selling has already been stretched to unsustainable levels and why, IF a spike low occurs, the metals would quickly recover. It's all in the CoT.

Yes I know that Santa claimed this week that the CoT is fudged and unreliable and yes I know that Santa has forgotten more about the metals markets that I know.....but....Unlce Ted believes in this stuff and so do I. Here's what Ted said in his mid-week newsletter:

"One of the reasons I think the data in the COT are accurate is that every contract has a long and short side. Therefore, to lie in the large trader reporting system that underlies the compilation of the COT, would require two lies; one by the big commercial lying and another by the counterparty holding the opposite side of the contract. I can see JPMorgan wanting to lie on its COMEX holdings, but I can’t see why a counterparty tech fund or speculator would assist in that lie. Please remember that lying on a large trader report is illegal and will be prosecuted by the CFTC (one of the few things they do well)."

With this in mind, here's a c&p of my CoT comments from yesterday:

For the Wed-Tue reporting week, gold was up $10 but total OI fell by 13,432. Silver fell by 17¢ and OI fell by 9,728.
The only interesting thing in the gold CoT was the divergence between LargeSpecs and SmallSpecs. The LargeSpecs went net long 13,000 contracts while the small specs went net short 7,400. This, my friends, is called leading the HFTs by their collective noses. On the bounce, the LargeSpecs covered shorts and went long to the tune of 13,000 contracts. Once fleeced, the "market" rolled back over and now all of those new longs (at 1600+) are under water.
Once again, the real interesting stuff is in silver. Both the Large and Small specs were adding to their shorts. The Large Specs sold a net 4,700 contracts and the Smalls sold a net 2,300. The commercials also sold 1,700 longs, dropping their gross long position back to a still-whopping 52,509. All of this selling allowed the naked short Cartel members to cover a massive 8,769 shorts or about 9% of their total gross short position! Now at 83,395, The Silver Cartel has been able to trim their short position by over 15,500 contracts, from 98,979 just two weeks ago. That's a drop of 16% in two weeks while price fell $2 from $31 to $29. I'm sure that's just good timing and good fortune...at least that's what Cueball and Thunderlips think.

On the bright side...

  • The total "commercial" long position in silver is actually up over the past two weeks while JPM et al have been covering. On 2/12/13, the gross comm long position was 52,182. As stated above, as of 2/26, it was still 52,509.
  • The Large Specs are racing to get short. On 2/5/13, the Large Specs were only short a record low 6,588 contracts. Three short weeks later, they're short a total 16,016, an increase of 143%!
  • The Large Specs are also feverishly dumping longs. Three weeks ago they were gross long 42,449. As f last Tuesday, that position had been whittled down to 37,753. That's a drop of 11%.
  • And the Large Spec net long ratio, which just 3 weeks ago was totally out of whack at 6.44:1, has fallen all the way back to 2.38:1. Remember, as a general rule, anything under 3 is somewhat bullish and anything over 4 is somewhat bearish. Anything under 2:1 is extremely bullish. For examples, see here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4492/strange-days-indeed
  • Also, all that Cartel short covering has further dropped the Cartel net short ratio. Last week it was 1.70:1 and this week it is 1.59:1. Again, historically, anything approaching 3:1 is very bad. Anything near 1.5:1 is very good.

I don't know if I can pound the table much harder. Could price be forced even lower, taking out $28 and heading toward $26? Yes, of course it can. But, if it does, the silver market will reach and surpass the exact same extremes that indicated bottoms in October of 2011, December of 2011 and August of 2012.

Again, please go back and looks at the "Strange Days Indeed" post from three weeks ago. ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4492/strange-days-indeed) The data is compelling and telling. Both metals, when measured by The Cartel net short ratio, have reached very bullish levels and stop-running spike lows would make them more extremely bullish than any other time that I can recall. Simply put, with CoT history as a guide, there is NO WAY that gold is going to $1200 and silver to $18 or even $22. Not from this CoT structure!

Moving on...Speaking of the CoT, one of your fellow Turdites has constructed a site to help everyone read and interpret the data. It can be found here: https://goldsilvercot.com/charts/cot/index.php

As you know, Santa's company TRX is an advertiser on this site. Someday soon, the miners will turn and I have great faith in Santa and his company for the long term. Last week, they held their annual shareholder meeting and the entire thing was recorded and posted. Here's a link. I think you'll enjoy watching it: https://standrewsclubav.ca/webcast/client_tanzanian/20130228/

And you've probably noticed that we've had to add a captcha to the registration and login process here. Sorry but it was necessary. If you've never run a site before, you simply wouldn't believe the amount and intensity of the spamming effort out there. They really slow site performance so it is hoped that the captcha will help us all in enjoying and learning from the site.

OK, that's it for now. Enjoy your weekend but please be aware of continued volatility next week and do not allow yourself to get all freaked out by the temporary price action. Keep your wits about you and remember the fundamentals. Stay strong and keep the faith. Continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

p.s. Adding these ZH links which were posted Saturday afternoon. Don't want you to miss this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/hedging-funds-and-physical-vs-paper-gold. AND YOU MUST READ THIS: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/why-jpmorgans-gold-vault-largest-world-located-next-new-york-fed

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  341 Comments

¤
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:03pm

Significant: One Eyed Al-Qaeda Commander Killed In Mali

Al-Qaeda commander behind Algeria gas plant attack 'killed in Mali'

The al-Qaeda commander who masterminded an attack on a gas plant in Algeria has been killed, it was claimed on Saturday night.

Mokhtar Belmokhtar Photo: AFP

8:44PM GMT 02 Mar 2013

Chad’s military said Mokhtar Belmokhtar, one of the world's most wanted men, died on Saturday in an assault on an Islamist rebel base in northern Mali.

Belmokhtar was at the centre of an international manhunt after at least 37 foreign hostages, including six Britons, were killed after militants seized the In Amenas gas complex in eastern Algeria in January.

In a statement read out on Chadian national television, General Zacharia Gobongue, the armed forces spokesman, said: "On Saturday, March 2, at noon, Chadian armed forces operating in northern Mali completely destroyed a terrorist base (...) The toll included several dead terrorists, including their leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar."

The French military, which is leading the offensive in northern Mali assisted by several African nations, said it could not confirm the information.

Belmokhtar, 40, who headed a militant brigade called 'Witnesses in Blood', became one of the world’s most wanted men after the gas complex, which is operated by BP together with Norway's Statoil and Sonatrach, Algeria’s state energy company, was attacked by gunmen on January 16.

The militants seized hundreds of hostages, leading to a four-day siege in the desert. The Algerian army launched an assault on the complex, ending in a bloodbath on January 19.

In a video posted online Belmokhtar later confirmed his involvement in the attack, describing the siege as a "blessed operation", and demanding that France withdraw its troops from Mali.

In the message, which was recorded before the final stand-off with the Algerian army, Belmokhtar said the operation was carried out by 40 "jihadists", including several Westerners. The raid itself is thought to have been led by Abdul Rahman al-Nigeri, a field commander close to Belmokhtar.

Belmokhtar's death, if confirmed, would be a major blow to Islamist rebels in northern Mali who have been pushed into their mountain strongholds by French and African forces.

Linked to a string of kidnappings of foreigners in North Africa in the last decade, the Algerian-born Belmokhtar had been dubbed “the uncatchable” by the French intelligence services.

Born in Ghardaia in eastern Algeria, he is said to have become attracted to Islamism as a teenage schoolboy, travelling to Afghanistan at the end of the war against the Soviets in the early 1990s.

This launched him on a two-decade career of Islamic militancy, initially as a member of Algeria's Islamic Armed Group (GIA) in the country's civil war. He then became a joint founder of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), which extended its attacks against security forces into countries along the southern fringe of the Sahara.

He lost his left eye while handling explosives in the 1990s fighting Algerian government troops as head of the Shahada Katibat [Martyrs Battallion] in the Sahara Desert.....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/algeria/...

¤
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:07pm

Italy may soon have to pull out of euro: Beppe Grillo

Beppe Grillo says Italy may soon have to pull out of euro

Beppe Grillo, the comedian who was the big winner in Italy's election, suggests Italy may have to abandon the euro and go back to the lira, and renegotiate its gigantic debt.

Five Star Movement leader and comedian Beppe Grillo (R) speaks during a rally in Rome February 22, 2013. Five Star Movement leader and comedian Beppe Grillo (R) speaks during a rally in Rome Photo: REUTERS

11:16AM GMT 02 Mar 2013

Beppe Grillo, the former comedian who holds the balance of power in Italy, has suggested the country may have to abandon the euro and return to the lire.

In an interview with a German magazine published on Saturday, Mr Grillo said that “if conditions do not change” Italy “will want” to leave the euro and return to its former national currency.

The 64-year-old comic-turned-political activist also said Italy needs to renegotiate its €2 trillion debt.

At 127 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), it is the highest in the euro zone after Greece.

“Right now we are being crushed, not by the euro, but by our debt. When the interest payments reach €100 billion a year, we’re dead. There’s no alternative,” he told Focus, a weekly news magazine.

He said Italy was in such dire economic straits that “in six months, we will no longer be able to pay pensions and the wages of public employees.”

The incendiary comments are likely to intensify the acute paralysis within Italian politics.

Mr Grillo’s web-based, anti-establishment Five Star Movement won more than a quarter of the vote in Italy’s general election last week.

But he refuses to do any sort of power-sharing deal with the centre-Left Democratic Party, which has shaky control of the upper and lower houses of parliament but without a big enough majority to form a government.

Mr Grillo, renowned for his blistering attacks on Italy’s established political caste, has called Pier Luigi Bersani, the leader of the Democratic Party “a dead man talking” and has predicted the annihilation of both the centre-Left and the centre-Right coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi within months.

The three-way deadlock has created the first hung parliament in modern Italian history and raised fears in the rest of the world about Italy’s ability to maintain desperately needed economic reforms initiated by Mario Monti, the former technocrat prime minister.

Italy’s new parliament has to meet by March 15 at the latest, after which formal talks with Giorgio Napolitano, the octogenarian Italian president, are scheduled to begin on the formation of a new government.

Markets were jittery in trading on Friday, with the Milan index plunging 1.54 percent - the worst performer among major European stock markets.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9904270/Beppe-Gr...

ag1969
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:08pm

That Zerohedge article was great

So they get to put all the gold in which ever vault they need to for their shell game. The oldest scam in the book. I guess the question is whether or not there is any gold there at all.

Did any of you see this link in the comments section? Very interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brink%27s-MAT_robbery

Southern Cross Sheetrocker
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:21pm

@ Sheetrocker - Thanks For The Comment

He's is a stacker. Stays away from the fiat and banks. Plans again to head to the LCS this coming week.

Next project is starting a family cattle herd. Each of my three children is going to buy 5-6 calves, and the wife and I are going to buy about a 100 calves and cows in the next 12 months. Were plan to lease free range land. This should occupy a piece of my mind when JPMorgue beats down stackers. Hopefully the herd can grow to a sizable number before the dollar is destroyed.

Thanks again for the comment. 

Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:23pm
Swineflogger
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:26pm

@DPH

For the record, lest I seem a total douche bag, that cat was a beautiful thing. That isn't lost on me (as much else is). It is just that they are no longer controlled the way they were years ago and the result is wanton destruction. Thanks for all you do for us on this site. Hopefully next week will be "inconceivable"!

Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:32pm

Hunting...

Hunting happens to be a form of secondary psychopathy.

Urban Roman
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:39pm

Psychopathy

Secondary ... like the the second wave in the "Reign of Terror".

cpnscarlet
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:42pm

Had to come in for a second

Had to come in for a second for a comment -

Things are pretty sad when some of our greatest sages cannot agree on the reliability of the COT report. Sick, sad, but true. I'm with Santa because I'm pretty sure that Gensler et al are all corrupt...extremely corrupt. Any official data is suspect because it is "OFFICIAL". The SEC, CFTC are corrupt on the enforcement side and the CME is corrupt on the commercial side.

And to make it worse, Turd comments that we should stay strong in the face of "short term" price action. Take that "short term" crap and shove it. It is 3/2013 now. This price action has been in force for almost two years. Nothing short about it at this point. Putting up with this price action has taken a lot of blood sweat and tears. We all deserve a break from this insanity and many metals for bravery.

ClinkinKY
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:50pm

Mar 2, 2013 - 6:56pm
UK Silverstackers
Mar 2, 2013 - 6:57pm

JPM London Vault maybe...

Following on from ZH article, a quick google search for planning permission 60 Victoria Embankment bought up this plan of the -3 basement level that shows a secure area, it could be a vault I guess with a secure lift.......

The legend says the shaded area is Trucking Route, so they were expecting something heavy to move around on pallets no doubt.

and possibly reinforcing columns all around the outside.


https://www.planning.cityoflondon.gov.uk:90/WAM/doc/Drawing-215620.pdf;jsessionid=CC555CE8BA32A50B2B7CD803E617060C?extension=.pdf&wmTransparency=0&id=215620&wmLocation=0&location=livevolume1&contentType=&wmName=&pageCount=1

dudestacker
Mar 2, 2013 - 7:16pm

about that ZH vault piece--

mentioned platinum and palladium being vaulted as well, which, locked in a g/s paradigm, I hadn't considered, got me to wonder: where is the largest store of the rarest of rare earth minerals? Could we mobilize Turd's Army for a dastardly deed and abscond with it?

On a second note, re: wb7's post over there: Dr Paul Krugman???????????? Hard to believe he would hang out on ZH.

On a third note, re: weekend: Turd, you need big boots like these guys have to go with your big hat.

Primus - Wynona's Big Brown Beaver

p.s. that's a SHEEP

ReachWest
Mar 2, 2013 - 7:26pm

Tunnels and Charades

I've got to say that I'm not surprised by any of the revelations in that ZH story re the JPM vault. It fits.

JPM and the Fed are basically tied at the hip (or the tunnel as the case may be) - hell - as far as I'm concerned, the two vaults are probably one and the same - Jamie and his crew enter through a door on the South side of Liberty St marked "JP Morgan Vault" and Ben and the boys enter through a door on the North side of Liberty St marked "Federal Reserve of New York Vault". One and the same - and they both keep separate books on the same ounces of Gold. Double counting and rehypothicating at will. It's a gigantic charade.

The system is messed up. I mean truly messed up.

BIGNASTY Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 7:52pm

@ Roberspierre ,Trolling........

Trolling happens to be a form of secondary psychopathy.

SilverSurfers
Mar 2, 2013 - 8:04pm

Parrots

J Sinclairs said the COT cant be trusted,

====you know, "a bunch of rubbish"

Trader Dan said the low was last week, meaning 2/20

===you know "uh, so hows the 2/20 28.57 bottom working out for the you?", where gold did not make a new bottom, unconfirming Ag the 28.50 low mark of a couple of days

Trader Dan said the bullion move of late, with a higher dollar, Gold actually moved higher.

===you know, our 28.58 weekly close with a dollar moving higher, is a good sign.

I LOVE PARROTS, then, WTF do I know ........ ?

"A mercantile sense", why thank you Santa .... ;)

Once, a way while back, I posted a missive, saying santa has no absolute calculus model, and in the end, he has to based projections on his gut, in some measure. Man did I get allot grief on that. In response, I sent an email, apologizing if I had inadvertently insulted him, and like the GREAT HUMAN, he is, he said to me, no worries, you keep putting in your 2ct. I like santa ..... he has great "mercantile sense".

I like playing bridge, the experts know I aint, but I tell you, they all love my card-sense, making the right play, but without the calculus, starting way back as a child watching for hours, my grandparents and parents play pinochele on my snost. ;)

The Hearse Song (the worms crawl in, the worms crawl out) Performed by Harley Poe

edit ...

And by the way Trud ... Not to whip a dead horse, Santa in on all fours with Turk, with the graceful retreat, of the bullion banks, allowing gold to rise in an orderly manner, that the banks will, long and short, that they want to the gold price to increase, to fatten reserves, as the fiat collapses, while AM is saying its all about manipulation to support the strong dollar, (contrary to intentional debasement), rather than an actual desire to see bullion rise over time, in the graceful retreat, and the down smashes are temporary targeted smashes, per santa. So, you have Sinclair and Truk, lining up against AM. Im in the moorish rudolph camp.


Mar 2, 2013 - 8:08pm

@ Louie

That is genuinely funny! I'll quote you in class.

All congressmen should be limited to 2 terms. One in Congress, and one in jail.

Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 8:20pm

I'm A Printer..... Lyrics

It's all the same, only the papers will change
Everyday it seems the dollar's wasting away
Another place can't let the ink get cold
I'd print all night just to get back home

[Chorus:]
I'm a printer, on a paper horse I ride
I'm wanted dead or alive
Wanted dead or alive

Sometimes I sleep, sometimes it's not for days
And the bankers I meet always go their separate ways
Sometimes you tell the day
By the bottle of ink
And times when I'm alone alone all I do is print

[Chorus]

I walk the Fed, a loaded printer on my back
I play for keeps, 'cause the country is never coming back
I have printed for all the banks, and I'm standing tall
I've seen a million vaults and I've filled them all

I'm a printer, on a paper horse I ride
I'm wanted dead or alive
I'm a printer, I got the Rothchild's on my side
I'm wanted dead or alive
And I will print, dead or alive
Yes I will print, dead or alive

Bernank Wanted Sign

Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 8:31pm

Big Nasty

Go and fuck yourself. How's that for trolling scumbag.

Patrancus
Mar 2, 2013 - 8:37pm

Bubble up

The next real estate bubble, f-in chicoms sure know how to build vacancy

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50141927n

Patrancus
Mar 2, 2013 - 8:56pm

Obama's Drone's

Obamas Drones 

Can the policy be morally superior to Bush's alleged torture? the Drones go in and quietly and indiscriminately liquidate the target, and nobody is the wiser, I guess as long as the media and 1/2 the republic doesn't give a shit, we are to assume the activity is morally superior. I figure this president must be a real swell guy in order for everyone to pay no attention.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/is-obama-s-drone-policy-really-...

Patrancus
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:03pm

US underground roadway

US underground roadway tunnels

Entrance to U.S. underground City and roadway system
BIGNASTY Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:13pm

Roberta..

That is a lot of generalized anger for a man of such high standards, another indication of the sociopathic character?

Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:20pm

Let Mr Say This...

I am not a Troll. I do not take kindly to being insulted. You insult me you are going to get it right back- in spades. You labeled me as troll because you don't like the truth. What I said about the trading service was the truth. The numbers are not the same. Like it or not the truth is the truth. As far as the secondary psychopathy statement is concerned this is also the truth. Maybe you need to educate yourself.

Nick Elway
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:22pm

@fix

Your post was a thing of beauty

Quote:
.... the Republican party destroyed itself a long time ago. Now they are just willing scapegoats.

Since he has established who to blame for the disaster that is about to unfold, which has absolutely nothing to do with the so-called “massive budget cuts”, the economy can now go into a full-fledged collapse, since he has already established a scapegoat.

Thanks, your scapegoat observation makes perfect sense.

Congratulations and enjoy your day off!

¤
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:22pm

Klondike Gold Rush ~ CITY OF GOLD

This classic short film from Pierre Berton depicts the Klondike gold rush at its peak, when would-be prospectors struggled through harsh conditions to reach the fabled gold fields over 3000 km north of civilization. Using a collection of still photographs, the film juxtaposes the Dawson City at the height of the gold rush with its bustling taverns and dance halls with the more tranquil Dawson City of the present.

City of Gold

Robespierre
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:26pm

Big Nasty

I happen to be full of emotion. A sociopath happens to be void of emotion. Maybe you need to read a book.

SilverSurfers
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:35pm

Wild Ride Ahead

Sinclair says that in the move to 4-5K$, bulls and bears will get hit 3 times, meaning, 3 major chops during major 3 of 5. I agree. Some may have figured out, that Im in a 20 year plan, starting year 2000, and to date have made two major swaps Au/Ag on the GSR, OVER 12 freaking years, only 2, over 12 years, and have done very well thank you. Many are focused on the GSR, looking the opportunity. Which is fine. But rapid and large GSR moves is what you should really look for, at extremely low risk timing. Santa says we have 3 major hits, chops, coming down the road, in which, the GSR will move in large percentage terms. Im not eye balling the GSR on a day to day, and explained my view on the GSR. 

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/172842#comment-172842

We are in the mist of multi-generation bull market in PMs, extending to the end of the days, when we are freed from the shackles of fiat. Take the long term view. There will be points during these major moves to make safe GSR plays, between Au/Ag for increasing metal weight, at monstrous gains, always staying in a PM position. It must be surely difficult for many, not to trade and the play the GSR regularly. But, if patient, looking for the right set up, there will be a few great opportunity to multiply metal weight on the GSR over the next few to many years, at very low risk. 

For those just not sure, accumulate in the low 30s, with strong hands, and today, Silver (as well as gold) is on sale, if you want to jump in. Just keep accumulating, sit tight, and wait for market to come to you, for, as night follows day, it will.

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/2_Wh...

We collectively may be screwed, but a few of us will experience a huge transfer of the wealth effect. Then, we WILL HAVE TO spend some of our bullion, on bread for passing out on the streets, as our compassionate hearts demand.

Mr. Fix
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:42pm

Sometimes life gets in the way of posting, but here I am.

First, I would like to comment on today's post.

Turd gives the odds of another major takedown 25%.

I would put the odds of that much higher, in fact I view it as a virtual certainty.

My long-held position, is that the COMEX will collapse as it's paper value approaches zero.

The endgame that we are witnessing is evidence.

Arguably, the fundamentals for owning physical gold and silver have never been better, and by many credible sources, the buying of physical metal is at an all-time record pace. This of course has absolutely no correlation to the paper price whatsoever, and the bankers are not done playing their games.

Then, Turd discussed the possibility of the COT report being a complete fabrication, arguing that the counterparties to the trades would have to be lying also.

My theory is that banks (and Uncle Sam) are both sides of the trade. (Lying is not a problem for them.)

I seriously doubt there are that many “outsiders” playing with the futures markets these days. With the collapse of MF Global, and billions of dollars stolen, the credibility of the COMEX was destroyed.

 The recent podcasts on backwardation confirm that the COMEX is falling apart.

I suspect now the government has a free hand to set the price at whatever level it wishes to, and the story of the Fed vault in Manhattan being connected to the JP Morgan vault makes it easy to push all that goldplated tungsten back and forth across the street so that anybody that wants to can see it, but this game only works as long as nobody takes delivery. That is exactly what is starting to happen.

I listened to Pres. Obama yesterday tell us how nobody would notice any ill effects of the so-called “massive budget cuts” right away, but by April it would be a hardship that no American could ignore.

Pres. Obama has declared war on the American public, some people think he's just out to destroy the Republican Party. That's just the propaganda, the Republican party destroyed itself a long time ago. Now they are just willing scapegoats.

Since he has established who to blame for the disaster that is about to unfold, which has absolutely nothing to do with the so-called “massive budget cuts”, the economy can now go into a full-fledged collapse, since he has already established a scapegoat. This is mathematically unavoidable.

Not so coincidentally, a failure to deliver at the Comex is also a mathematically unavoidable event.

We have a ongoing hat contest, and I hold the lowest price.

It is all unfolding exactly as I expect, and by the end of March, I expect the paper price of a COMEX contract to be worthless.

I also expect it to be apparent that the United States economy is in shambles.

I also expect our government to declare war against its own citizens. ( Even the stupidest will be able to figure that out.)

And on a personal note, I have been working very long days, and have come home too exhausted to compose posts on Main Street, but I do still read my mail and post on the forums.

You can find me regularly checking DayStar's "Harvey Report" or Nana's DOTS.

 They have become for me a quick overview of what's going on.

I hope you all enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Tomorrow is my birthday, and I will be spending my 51st with my wife and daughter, enjoying a day off with the family. I have a very solid week's worth of work booked this coming week, and weekend.

But I do get a kick out of all the speculation of what it is I'm really up to.wink

Texas Sandman
Mar 2, 2013 - 9:43pm

I think we celebrate the running of the bulls next week.

My model hasn't quite gone to a BUY yet. And patience is really important for things to fall into place. But it's going that direction, is very close & would be there at close Monday with any sort of rally at all. Then I'll be prancing with the bulls. Out on a romp. Until then, I'm short term & bi-directional.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 12/31

1/2 9:45 am ET Markit Manu PMI
1/3 10:00 am ET ISM Manu Index
1/4 8:30 am ET BLSBS
1/4 9:45 am ET Markit Serv PMI

Recent Comments

by Relmom, 0 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 53 min 54 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 1 hour 32 min ago
randomness