Saturday Gold and Silver

341
Sat, Mar 2, 2013 - 12:47pm

It looks more and more like the next two weeks or so are going to be significant.

So, where do we start on this fine Saturday? How about with something from Friday? I posted these two charts into the comments section of yesterday's post. They show a classic short/theft tactic. Someone, either an HFT or a Cartel monkey, pulled the trigger on a sell order in silver at the very thin trading hour of 4:00 a.m., New York time. Since silver was sitting right on top of the previous week's lows, the effect was predictable. A host of sell-stops were "harvested" as price quickly fell about 50¢. Note then that price quickly recovered as liquidity returned with the opening of the Comex session.

Why did I start there today, you ask?

  1. Because now $28.40 is a very important level to watch early next week in silver, and,
  2. It is becoming increasingly likely that the same trick is going to get played out on a much larger scale in both gold and silver before a final bottom is put in and price permanently reverses.

Let's next visit our three friends...Crude, DrC and Sylvia. Do they have any clues for us? Why, yes, they do as a matter of fact. All three have come down dramatically and all three give the appearance of having a bit further to go. And if "commodities in general" show additional weakness over the next 7-10 days, you can probably imagine that selling pressure compounding our problems in gold and silver.

So let's start with silver. Running the stops yesterday has fortunately provided us with a very clear level to watch at $28.40. If silver slips below there again early next week, it would be a near certainty that we are going to take at least one trip down below $28. There has consistently been a lot of support there so taking it much lower is going to be a task for The Bad Guys.

That said, I'm beginning to sense that the ultimate goal of this entire event is to harvest the stops below $26. IF this happens...and currently I'd put the odds at about 25%...a quick drop to $25ish would be your final bottom. Price would quickly recover back above $26 and this deliberate beatdown would be over. How can I say that? More on that in a few minutes. First, two more charts:

And gold could very easily suffer the same fate. If The Cartel can engender enough additional spec selling, a veritable cornucopia of sell stops lay waiting for them sub-1530. And you can just imagine the reaction in the media: "GOLD IN BEAR MARKET!!" will be screamed as loudly as possible in the hopes of inspiring even more selling. Like silver, I only give this about 1 chance in 4 of happening but we must be on the lookout and prepare mentally. IF this occurs, you must be strong and BUY, not sell. The spike low will be The Bottom.

Now lets get back to why I am so confident that the selling has already been stretched to unsustainable levels and why, IF a spike low occurs, the metals would quickly recover. It's all in the CoT.

Yes I know that Santa claimed this week that the CoT is fudged and unreliable and yes I know that Santa has forgotten more about the metals markets that I know.....but....Unlce Ted believes in this stuff and so do I. Here's what Ted said in his mid-week newsletter:

"One of the reasons I think the data in the COT are accurate is that every contract has a long and short side. Therefore, to lie in the large trader reporting system that underlies the compilation of the COT, would require two lies; one by the big commercial lying and another by the counterparty holding the opposite side of the contract. I can see JPMorgan wanting to lie on its COMEX holdings, but I can’t see why a counterparty tech fund or speculator would assist in that lie. Please remember that lying on a large trader report is illegal and will be prosecuted by the CFTC (one of the few things they do well)."

With this in mind, here's a c&p of my CoT comments from yesterday:

For the Wed-Tue reporting week, gold was up $10 but total OI fell by 13,432. Silver fell by 17¢ and OI fell by 9,728.
The only interesting thing in the gold CoT was the divergence between LargeSpecs and SmallSpecs. The LargeSpecs went net long 13,000 contracts while the small specs went net short 7,400. This, my friends, is called leading the HFTs by their collective noses. On the bounce, the LargeSpecs covered shorts and went long to the tune of 13,000 contracts. Once fleeced, the "market" rolled back over and now all of those new longs (at 1600+) are under water.
Once again, the real interesting stuff is in silver. Both the Large and Small specs were adding to their shorts. The Large Specs sold a net 4,700 contracts and the Smalls sold a net 2,300. The commercials also sold 1,700 longs, dropping their gross long position back to a still-whopping 52,509. All of this selling allowed the naked short Cartel members to cover a massive 8,769 shorts or about 9% of their total gross short position! Now at 83,395, The Silver Cartel has been able to trim their short position by over 15,500 contracts, from 98,979 just two weeks ago. That's a drop of 16% in two weeks while price fell $2 from $31 to $29. I'm sure that's just good timing and good fortune...at least that's what Cueball and Thunderlips think.

On the bright side...

  • The total "commercial" long position in silver is actually up over the past two weeks while JPM et al have been covering. On 2/12/13, the gross comm long position was 52,182. As stated above, as of 2/26, it was still 52,509.
  • The Large Specs are racing to get short. On 2/5/13, the Large Specs were only short a record low 6,588 contracts. Three short weeks later, they're short a total 16,016, an increase of 143%!
  • The Large Specs are also feverishly dumping longs. Three weeks ago they were gross long 42,449. As f last Tuesday, that position had been whittled down to 37,753. That's a drop of 11%.
  • And the Large Spec net long ratio, which just 3 weeks ago was totally out of whack at 6.44:1, has fallen all the way back to 2.38:1. Remember, as a general rule, anything under 3 is somewhat bullish and anything over 4 is somewhat bearish. Anything under 2:1 is extremely bullish. For examples, see here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4492/strange-days-indeed
  • Also, all that Cartel short covering has further dropped the Cartel net short ratio. Last week it was 1.70:1 and this week it is 1.59:1. Again, historically, anything approaching 3:1 is very bad. Anything near 1.5:1 is very good.

I don't know if I can pound the table much harder. Could price be forced even lower, taking out $28 and heading toward $26? Yes, of course it can. But, if it does, the silver market will reach and surpass the exact same extremes that indicated bottoms in October of 2011, December of 2011 and August of 2012.

Again, please go back and looks at the "Strange Days Indeed" post from three weeks ago. ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4492/strange-days-indeed) The data is compelling and telling. Both metals, when measured by The Cartel net short ratio, have reached very bullish levels and stop-running spike lows would make them more extremely bullish than any other time that I can recall. Simply put, with CoT history as a guide, there is NO WAY that gold is going to $1200 and silver to $18 or even $22. Not from this CoT structure!

Moving on...Speaking of the CoT, one of your fellow Turdites has constructed a site to help everyone read and interpret the data. It can be found here: https://goldsilvercot.com/charts/cot/index.php

As you know, Santa's company TRX is an advertiser on this site. Someday soon, the miners will turn and I have great faith in Santa and his company for the long term. Last week, they held their annual shareholder meeting and the entire thing was recorded and posted. Here's a link. I think you'll enjoy watching it: https://standrewsclubav.ca/webcast/client_tanzanian/20130228/

And you've probably noticed that we've had to add a captcha to the registration and login process here. Sorry but it was necessary. If you've never run a site before, you simply wouldn't believe the amount and intensity of the spamming effort out there. They really slow site performance so it is hoped that the captcha will help us all in enjoying and learning from the site.

OK, that's it for now. Enjoy your weekend but please be aware of continued volatility next week and do not allow yourself to get all freaked out by the temporary price action. Keep your wits about you and remember the fundamentals. Stay strong and keep the faith. Continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

p.s. Adding these ZH links which were posted Saturday afternoon. Don't want you to miss this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/hedging-funds-and-physical-vs-paper-gold. AND YOU MUST READ THIS: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/why-jpmorgans-gold-vault-largest-world-located-next-new-york-fed

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  341 Comments

SilverSurfers
Mar 3, 2013 - 12:01am

COT

Its not that the COT reports are accurate or false, who knows, and that is the real problem, that the credibility of government, in most areas, is in a free fall, rendering any truth suspect, and promoting ill effects, conspiracy theories, blame games, distrust of nontransparency over all on the people and markets. Counter-party risk anyone?

GOLD IS NOT MONEY, and the COT REPORT IS RIGHT ON.

If the FED BANK is run by a charlatan, can anything be accepted blindly?

ReachWest
Mar 3, 2013 - 12:09am

capitulation

capitulation |kəˌpiCHəˈlāSHən|

  • the action of surrendering or ceasing to resist an opponent or demand: the victor sees it as a sign of capitulation

Are we on the verge of capitulation? I think so. But it is not us that is doing the capitulating. It is the forces of darkness that will cease to resist the natural laws of economics and ride the wave of Gold and Silver upward for astounding rewards. The mark to market wave - as Santa calls it.

Will the month of March takes us there? Perhaps. Soon - very soon.

And - now - off for another adult beverage.

Karankawa
Mar 3, 2013 - 12:10am

Happy Anniversary of your Birth Fix!

Enjoy it with your family!

Bugzy
Mar 3, 2013 - 2:06am

wow

this site is up and down more than a whores knickers!

Bugzy
Mar 3, 2013 - 2:09am

wow

this site is up and down more than a whores knickers!

Just A Regular Guy
Mar 3, 2013 - 6:07am

Bugzy

Nice comment :)

Horst
Mar 3, 2013 - 6:21am

Eric King: “Jim, when we look

Eric King: “Jim, when we look at the other side, let’s call them ‘the manipulators,’ the ‘invisible hand’ if you will, even though you and I see them actively in the market, when you and I talk off the air we have a great respect for these guys. They are good at what they do, they are masters.”

Sinclair: “They are absolute masters, and if you are in conflict with an army which has excellent generals, you have to respect your enemy and strategize your success.”

Yep. Sounds somehow like this does it:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/141978#comment-141978

Too bad that respect for your enemy (at least his capabilities) is a concept that cannot seem to be grasped around here.

Horst
Mar 3, 2013 - 6:24am

SilverSurfers

Yep, COT has correctly indicated price movements for at least a decade now. So it does work. Though I perfectly understand Jim's scepticism. If it weren't for the fact that the COT data is consistently useful, I'd suspect it of being manipulated as well - as all the other data is.

Actually it might be manipulated, just not in a way that renders it useless as an indicator for trading. Maybe shorts are consistently understated, but, if it's consistent, it does not matter for us.

snick
Mar 3, 2013 - 8:13am

Significance of March 27

I'm probably the last one to get it, but it was gnawing at the back of my mind for a long time, and finally the significance of March 27 (aside from being Jim Sinclair's birthday) dawned on me: The fifth BRICs summit is taking place March 26-27 this year. Wonder if some kind of annoucement along the lines of gold-backed or commodities-backed currency is expected ... ?

gold slut
Mar 3, 2013 - 8:41am

The master plan?

It seems to me that as the world is now so interconnected via Globalization, when one economy gets into trouble, everyone else takes a hit to a greater or lesser degree. If a bank goes down in, say, Russia, then it could drag another down in, say, Australia, or the US, or where ever. With this in mind, if one country defaults, devalues their currency to shed their debt, it could bring the whole global deck of cards down, hard and fast.

As they have these G20 or G8 meetings, and the fact that almost all economies are in deep, and globally it is DEEP, doo-doo, could this coordinated money printing/deflation/PM price supression be a plan to slow-motion crash the worlds economies, and then rise up, phoenix-like with a new world of debt free governments be a pre planned agreement?

If this is what is planned, and I have not just forgotten to take my pills, then I would say that stacking for the future would be the correct thing to do, regardless of how low the price goes, because in the short to medium term it will not be allowed to rise significantly.

Not so long ago, I thought preppers were a bunch of tin-foil-hat-wearing loons, but the more I see, the less I hold that view. When my pension is worth less than a loaf of bread, they will all be quite rightly able to point at me and laugh.

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