Saturday Gold and Silver

Sat, Mar 2, 2013 - 12:47pm

It looks more and more like the next two weeks or so are going to be significant.

So, where do we start on this fine Saturday? How about with something from Friday? I posted these two charts into the comments section of yesterday's post. They show a classic short/theft tactic. Someone, either an HFT or a Cartel monkey, pulled the trigger on a sell order in silver at the very thin trading hour of 4:00 a.m., New York time. Since silver was sitting right on top of the previous week's lows, the effect was predictable. A host of sell-stops were "harvested" as price quickly fell about 50¢. Note then that price quickly recovered as liquidity returned with the opening of the Comex session.

Why did I start there today, you ask?

  1. Because now $28.40 is a very important level to watch early next week in silver, and,
  2. It is becoming increasingly likely that the same trick is going to get played out on a much larger scale in both gold and silver before a final bottom is put in and price permanently reverses.

Let's next visit our three friends...Crude, DrC and Sylvia. Do they have any clues for us? Why, yes, they do as a matter of fact. All three have come down dramatically and all three give the appearance of having a bit further to go. And if "commodities in general" show additional weakness over the next 7-10 days, you can probably imagine that selling pressure compounding our problems in gold and silver.

So let's start with silver. Running the stops yesterday has fortunately provided us with a very clear level to watch at $28.40. If silver slips below there again early next week, it would be a near certainty that we are going to take at least one trip down below $28. There has consistently been a lot of support there so taking it much lower is going to be a task for The Bad Guys.

That said, I'm beginning to sense that the ultimate goal of this entire event is to harvest the stops below $26. IF this happens...and currently I'd put the odds at about 25%...a quick drop to $25ish would be your final bottom. Price would quickly recover back above $26 and this deliberate beatdown would be over. How can I say that? More on that in a few minutes. First, two more charts:

And gold could very easily suffer the same fate. If The Cartel can engender enough additional spec selling, a veritable cornucopia of sell stops lay waiting for them sub-1530. And you can just imagine the reaction in the media: "GOLD IN BEAR MARKET!!" will be screamed as loudly as possible in the hopes of inspiring even more selling. Like silver, I only give this about 1 chance in 4 of happening but we must be on the lookout and prepare mentally. IF this occurs, you must be strong and BUY, not sell. The spike low will be The Bottom.

Now lets get back to why I am so confident that the selling has already been stretched to unsustainable levels and why, IF a spike low occurs, the metals would quickly recover. It's all in the CoT.

Yes I know that Santa claimed this week that the CoT is fudged and unreliable and yes I know that Santa has forgotten more about the metals markets that I know.....but....Unlce Ted believes in this stuff and so do I. Here's what Ted said in his mid-week newsletter:

"One of the reasons I think the data in the COT are accurate is that every contract has a long and short side. Therefore, to lie in the large trader reporting system that underlies the compilation of the COT, would require two lies; one by the big commercial lying and another by the counterparty holding the opposite side of the contract. I can see JPMorgan wanting to lie on its COMEX holdings, but I can’t see why a counterparty tech fund or speculator would assist in that lie. Please remember that lying on a large trader report is illegal and will be prosecuted by the CFTC (one of the few things they do well)."

With this in mind, here's a c&p of my CoT comments from yesterday:

For the Wed-Tue reporting week, gold was up $10 but total OI fell by 13,432. Silver fell by 17¢ and OI fell by 9,728.
The only interesting thing in the gold CoT was the divergence between LargeSpecs and SmallSpecs. The LargeSpecs went net long 13,000 contracts while the small specs went net short 7,400. This, my friends, is called leading the HFTs by their collective noses. On the bounce, the LargeSpecs covered shorts and went long to the tune of 13,000 contracts. Once fleeced, the "market" rolled back over and now all of those new longs (at 1600+) are under water.
Once again, the real interesting stuff is in silver. Both the Large and Small specs were adding to their shorts. The Large Specs sold a net 4,700 contracts and the Smalls sold a net 2,300. The commercials also sold 1,700 longs, dropping their gross long position back to a still-whopping 52,509. All of this selling allowed the naked short Cartel members to cover a massive 8,769 shorts or about 9% of their total gross short position! Now at 83,395, The Silver Cartel has been able to trim their short position by over 15,500 contracts, from 98,979 just two weeks ago. That's a drop of 16% in two weeks while price fell $2 from $31 to $29. I'm sure that's just good timing and good least that's what Cueball and Thunderlips think.

On the bright side...

  • The total "commercial" long position in silver is actually up over the past two weeks while JPM et al have been covering. On 2/12/13, the gross comm long position was 52,182. As stated above, as of 2/26, it was still 52,509.
  • The Large Specs are racing to get short. On 2/5/13, the Large Specs were only short a record low 6,588 contracts. Three short weeks later, they're short a total 16,016, an increase of 143%!
  • The Large Specs are also feverishly dumping longs. Three weeks ago they were gross long 42,449. As f last Tuesday, that position had been whittled down to 37,753. That's a drop of 11%.
  • And the Large Spec net long ratio, which just 3 weeks ago was totally out of whack at 6.44:1, has fallen all the way back to 2.38:1. Remember, as a general rule, anything under 3 is somewhat bullish and anything over 4 is somewhat bearish. Anything under 2:1 is extremely bullish. For examples, see here:
  • Also, all that Cartel short covering has further dropped the Cartel net short ratio. Last week it was 1.70:1 and this week it is 1.59:1. Again, historically, anything approaching 3:1 is very bad. Anything near 1.5:1 is very good.

I don't know if I can pound the table much harder. Could price be forced even lower, taking out $28 and heading toward $26? Yes, of course it can. But, if it does, the silver market will reach and surpass the exact same extremes that indicated bottoms in October of 2011, December of 2011 and August of 2012.

Again, please go back and looks at the "Strange Days Indeed" post from three weeks ago. ( The data is compelling and telling. Both metals, when measured by The Cartel net short ratio, have reached very bullish levels and stop-running spike lows would make them more extremely bullish than any other time that I can recall. Simply put, with CoT history as a guide, there is NO WAY that gold is going to $1200 and silver to $18 or even $22. Not from this CoT structure!

Moving on...Speaking of the CoT, one of your fellow Turdites has constructed a site to help everyone read and interpret the data. It can be found here:

As you know, Santa's company TRX is an advertiser on this site. Someday soon, the miners will turn and I have great faith in Santa and his company for the long term. Last week, they held their annual shareholder meeting and the entire thing was recorded and posted. Here's a link. I think you'll enjoy watching it:

And you've probably noticed that we've had to add a captcha to the registration and login process here. Sorry but it was necessary. If you've never run a site before, you simply wouldn't believe the amount and intensity of the spamming effort out there. They really slow site performance so it is hoped that the captcha will help us all in enjoying and learning from the site.

OK, that's it for now. Enjoy your weekend but please be aware of continued volatility next week and do not allow yourself to get all freaked out by the temporary price action. Keep your wits about you and remember the fundamentals. Stay strong and keep the faith. Continue to prepare accordingly.


p.s. Adding these ZH links which were posted Saturday afternoon. Don't want you to miss this: AND YOU MUST READ THIS:

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 2, 2013 - 1:22pm

Brown's bottom

still being trotted out in the press without a true understanding of what it was REALLY about.

'Had Gordon Brown bothered to ask them, they would have told him to hold on to the UK's reserves which he famously sold for $250 (£165) an ounce soon after Labour came to office.'

Oh and the two leading stories on this w/ends Torygraph:

Beppe Grillo says Italy may soon have to pull out of euro

Beppe Grillo, the former comedian who holds the balance of power in Italy, has suggested the country may have to abandon the euro and return to the lira.

China 'fully prepared' for currency war

China's central bank deputy governor Yi Gang said: “China is prepared. In terms of both monetary policies and other mechanisms, China will take into full account the quantitative easing policies implemented by central banks of foreign countries.”

Mar 2, 2013 - 1:24pm

@ Loud Noises

"We didn't even spend much time in the lower 20's on our way up."

ditto the 1400's in gold.

The significance of this is that there are few horizontal support lines there to be found.

(cue manic laughter from the psychopathic cartel).

Mar 2, 2013 - 1:26pm

Mining Shares - No Thanx!!!

I sold the last of my miners yesterday and traded my position for PSLV. I won't touch another miner until its so clearly obvious that funds are buying in big volume. I don't expect that to happen until we reach stage 2 in silver (new all time highs in silver) or possibly even after that. One day I still believe fortunes will be made in the mining shares, probably when metals are in late stage 2 and stage 3 rallies. Fortuntely I didn't have a big position in the miners. But the position I had was making me sick to my stomach daily. I just don't have time or patient for that sh*t and why bother when I could be building my stack instead?

Mar 2, 2013 - 1:30pm

how a whale can kill a shark

You just turn the shark upside down. Listen to the story about the LA pod of orcas.

They seem to be so shocked that they are upside down that they go to sleep.

An orca is big enough to flip the great white upside down because the orca can turn their head upside down and quickly turn them over. I guess whales teach other how to do this.

Its the benefit of the orca in the pod teaching the other whales how to do it.

Mar 2, 2013 - 1:32pm

DPH bearhuggin Toucqueville

US Social Security and the Granny State

Posted by Derrick Michael Reid on Saturday, March 02, 2013 1:23:11 PM

This country was founded on the principles of limited government, ie freedom from government, a republic of states, sound money, personal responsibility, and self-reliance, that necessarily flows therefrom. But those empowering days,that made us the strongest in character on the globe are long gone, absolutly decimated by a 100 years of leftist pandering, (vote for me, and I will give you the goodies), to where, the people line up for government largess,in increasing numbers, without any shame whatsoever, but with eyes for gaming the system to maximize their government tit-sucking greed, to where now, Alex Toucqueville prediction, that democracies fail, as soon as the people are pandered into voting for government largess, when they learn they can vote themselves the goodies, we will enter a state of totalitarian democracy. And baby, WE HAVE GLORIOUSLY ARRIVED, now ruled by a totalitarian, socialistic, fascist, racist cesspool that is DC. Alex was spot on, back in 1835. In order to fund increasing amounts of government largess, real money gold and silver, real money that cant be printed, keeping the government budgets honest, have been sidelined in favor of fiat paper money which can be printed in ever increasing amounts. Initially it was manna from heaven, but today has virtually no effect.

The fiat paper money, the yoke that is the Federal Reserve Note, the paper dollar, the irredeemable ponzie coupon, THE GOV CON, came upon us due to a confluence of factors, including: i) banksters' desire to control the money supply, and hence the people and their governments, in government-bankster fascism, ii) Government desires to pander the people with ever more largess for political control, and iii) pandered voters desiring to modernly vote for the good of themselves, rather than the good of the country, to implement the and maintain that monstrous socialism, now pervasive in DC. Toucqueville had a clue into the inherent weaknesses of human beings, that we will, over time, take the left road to the GRANNY STATE. The devils in us, that use to fire our greed, to achive and work and save, has been unleashed upon government largess, and turned away from the work place, in large measure. We had a great country, until our hearts and minds were corrupted by pandered socialism, enable by the black robe reapers of the high court, who swore to uphold the constitution, the check against totalitarian dictatorship in the whitehouse, and against the leftist panderers in congress.

Intellectually Dishonest Democrats

"Politicians, Judges and Lawyers should be shot dead in the streets as the dirty totalitarian socialistic fascist pigs they are, for destroying our belief and practice in our founding father principles."

America's Corrupt Judiciary

"One can expect members of that most despicable profession, having a licensed monopoly to dispute resolution, to exhibit self-centered greed, such as turning federal malpractice claims into a federal court lotto game, or pandering politicians who seek to cement political power through pandering of "vote for me and I will give you the goodies", to enslave us all, but it was THE JUDICIARY that was suppose to protect us all from ourselves and from the over reaches of the Federal Government, and the judiciary has utterly failed to protect Americans from the excesses of the Federal Government, which was their primary role, and as such, the Judiciary's trashing of the constitution and our freedom is the most dastardly of all public services."

The current system is financially unsustainable and politically doomed to collapse, bringing poverty, depression, along with our collectivized corrupted hearts and minds. Socialism is by definition, a powerful corrupting force. Even politicians, who have a residual belief that balanced budgets are sound fiscal policies, run from the MOB bosses that are the banks, that are too big to fail, as bailed out banks, which desire to keep the all enslaved in perpetuity with massive debt, and run from the electorate demanding ever more government largess, as the Fed bank balance sheet exponentiates, as the printing presses exposes the irredeemable ponzi coupon for the con that it is.

The global fiat money system is imploding before our eyes. The Bond market is ready to fall out of bed, as the FED, led by that charlatan, that counterfeiter in chief, as only a modest up tic in interest rates, inevitable, will render any fiscal policy doomed to fail. We are past the point of no return, as the remaining question being for how long can the FED exponentiate the money supply to kick the can, to the day of reckoning, when it all goes down, in a torrent for riots, marshal law, as wealth is transferred from paper promises, to gold and silver, immutable real money, the ultimate form of money, the ultimate extinguishers of debt.

We Americans are in one heck of a mess. Russians and Chineses are doing what they can to ease the eventual calamity, buying bullion hand over fist. They know what we all know, but are taking drastic steps to accumulate hoards of bullion, to minimize the affects of the demise of the Federal Reserve Note as the global reserve currency. So, here we are, 2013, the centennial birthday of the FED BANK, and all should send Bernake, a happy birthday card, expressing our sincere thoughts for their gracious and subtle destruction of the dollar, our collective hearts and minds, over this 100 year period, for the voted for enslavement of the people as tax mules and dependents.

I have proposed, in a nut shell, my solutions for the RECOVERING REACTIONARY AMERICAN ORDER, to restore our collective character, constitution, and economy, to wit, i) abolish all social programs at the federal level with balanced budgets, ii) abolish all fed taxes save a national sales tax and get IRS thuggery out of lives, iii) abolish fiat paper money, and restore gold and silver coinage to keep government budgets honest, iii) restrict states to in rem property taxes only, and iv) restore the republic and lets the states decide all matters, individually, on how much social services they each wish to provide for their citizens, putting competition back in the social service complex, and restore the efficiencies derived there from. But this solution will be only serious considered as the system implodes, and the fascist in DC look at each other, and ask what to do. We can all sit back, and let it implode, knowing hopelessly that the pandered electorate will confine austerity, as US army tanks roll out down Wilshire Blvd LA, in crowd control. Its on it way.

But cant we do better? Cant we traditional Americans offer even more OUTS for the politicians to avoid the most extreme violent failures of government and the corruption of the people's heart. YOU BET WE CAN DO BETTER. Those bafoons in Washington need our help. They are trapped in their own pandered specie. The FED bank has painted itself into a corner. Stop the printing, the system implodes forthwith, into a monetized reboot. Kick the can, and print more, and system implodes by hyperinflation, and then the implosion and monetized reboot. Doomed to failed. But its just a money system. Our character should not measured in terms of our standard of living. Many will riot when DC implodes and the safety nets collapse. But I AM A TRADITIONAL AMERICAN, the eternal optimist, believing that implosion is a good thing to reset the ship of the state, and our collective hearts and mind. Hopium is a power drug. I hope for the reboot, and consequently our restored freedoms from government. So, you wimpy tail politicians with no clue, heads up, here is my 2cents.

Social Security at the federal level is an abomination. Government will pandered through ear-marks, but money and taxes are fungible, federal taxes creating the federal largess pie, to be wedged and dished out, to sustain political power, with the voting grannies have much more political power than inner-city youths, a big part of our future, having no vote at all. At the federal level, granny can eat dog food, and doctors can pull the pull on brain dead grandpa, I don’t care. They had their chance to work and save for retirement. The kids never did, they got no chance. The working family is the bedrock of any society, and the wedge of pie to them, should be the greatest of all, and not the old saps, who failed to work and save. They scream, but we paid into Social Security all those years!!!!! Its not fair. They are right, its not fair to pandered people into yet another tax, but its just another revenue stream, per se, and no more, but a tool, by the tools, to lock in political power. Be it a mandatory health care fine, a license fee, or a social security tax, ITS STILL A TAX, to feed the pigs' power play in DC. Granny screaching, is a specious arguments. We paid taxes, and the government dices it up upon the political voting blocks of the day. But granny has the vote, and the system locks, and cowardly politicians succumb to their personal desires for political power. But Social Security is just one of many many forms of targeted pandering. Labor unions, with forced political contributions, will back the ever increasing workers compensation regime. Teachers will collectivize until the states are bankrupted. University students, led by the leftist think tanks, will demonstrate if the life long enslaving federal student loans are cut back. There are many similar econ-political realities that provide the head winds to substantial changes necessary to right the ship of state. But what to do?

You first have to account for the present state of affairs, and that necessarily includes the pandered voting blocks, and the political power. The cultural shift into pandered socialism is a reality that must be confronted, but HOW? After all that is said and done, most people, particularly the most important group, the working family, understands the household budget. Even though the banks push upon them perpetual enslaving credit, and the government pushes upon them the morally corrupting handouts, the working family knows what a budget is, and can relate strongly to that.

Politicians, left and right, desiring to right the ship of state, with sound money policies, to restore the American character of self reliance, have to do an end run around the culture of pandered socialism. They must say that, we will cut the pie, any way the voters want, but the pie must equal the taxes. That is, you people can vote, and we will respond to your pandered socialism, in view of the locked up voting blocks. YOU VOTERS can have it your way, any way you want, but you have to live within your means, and that excludes taking on MORE DEBT. You can not solve a debt problem with more debt. Working families get that. But you can TAX and SPEND, as much as you want, as long as TAXES equal SPENDING. Let the labor unions fight with granny, in a mud match, granny in a G-string fighting like heck, for their slice of the pie. Politicians, both left and right know the ship is going down fast, but can not stand up to the electorate. But both can appeal to the working family, the core, for a balance budget, yet champion their causes for the respective pieces of the pie.

As the economic situation deteriorates, as we slide into the economic abyss, and as captial investment, employment, and standards of livings nose dive, and the working family is shot-gunned to pieces, there will be an opening for both left and right politicians to right the ship of the state, by appealing to THE CORE, the working families and their votes for sound monetary policy, and if successful, when taxes equal spending, the righties and lefties, can fight like heck over the pie, pitting the political votes against themselves in dividing up the fiscal pie. In stead of having all of these pandered political socialist forces fight for larger amounts, exploit the working family core VOTE, as the economy implodes, to vote for sound fiscal policies, so that the fight become not how much, but whats the share. You know, guns and butter.

Politicians know the system is doomed and unsustainable, in the end days of the leftist pandered voter. Both left and right can appeal to the working family core for political cover to make tax equal spend, but then fight like heck for the shares of pie. While any federal social program is outright despised by traditional americans, and constitutionalists, we must accept the pandered political reality of the day. Politicians trying to hang on to a failed system, will only watch that system implode. Republicans and Democrats can champion any social program, to politically divide the fiscal pie. Compassionate Republicans can get in there and support any pie cut they want, as long as taxes equal spending. The time will soon be upon us for a political opening to appeal to working family voting core. The only way they get there, is a point in time when the economy so deteriorate, that the working family block votes as a dominate block for balanced budgets, and then pie cut, for what ever the people want, and thus is politically exploited by both sides of the aisles, and Americana resurfaces and recaptures the days of past glory, strength, self respect, freedom, and self reliance.


DPH and Alex Toucqueville

DPH, I want thank you for your contributions. As a deacon, of the Turdville church, that just absolutely ROCKS, (this is THE best site for gold bugs, bar none, here at, you carry us all to the altar of enlightenment. Many hat tips my friend. I enjoyed so much your posting of the video on the British financial problems. Much food for thought, so here goes. What struck me was granny's defiant rebuke of any social security cut backs, and the political power block of the voting grannies. What was absolutely astounding was the leftist politicians saying they know we have huge financial problem, but granny has the vote, so what can we do??? BRAINWAVE . . .

Mar 2, 2013 - 1:48pm

Turd's Army Rookies

Excalibur and myself have been talking off forum about Turd's Army and how the uninitiated can get involved. We both understand that the service is designed for experienced traders and yet get the feeling from Andy's website that the processes involved are actually not that complex. We may be wrong. However, with the financial wherewithal and the requisite time, should it not be possible to set up a dummy account (say for a month) just to see whether it is possible to contribute in our own way to the second front Andy and Turd have constructed against the Cartel.

If it doesn't work out, nothing has been lost. If it does, then a large number (I would guess) of willing apprentices could be recruited to the cause. What Excalibur and myself do not want to do is to clog Main St up with trading issues which are of no concern to the broader stacking community. Therefore could some kind Turdite tell me how to set up a forum dedicated to this peripheral issue. I can't see how to do it and apologise in advance for my ignorance. Furthermore (and this is our ultimate aim) if any Turdite currently enrolled in Turd's Army is prepared to act as a mentor for us Rookies then that would be very sincerely appreciated.

Turd - if you would rather such novices as ourselves do not get involved then please let me know. My suspicion, however, is that there are plenty of us with the time and money to do so. We just need a bit of help starting up.

Mar 2, 2013 - 1:51pm

Santa's Interview on KWN

Listened to the interview and had a question regarding one of his comments. About 20 minutes into the interview, he talks about half of the world's central banks 'mark their gold to the market'. He believes the trend will force all central banks to this.

I don't fully understand the importance of this process. Would someone explain?

Also, I looked for list of the countries that do this. Could not find any info. If someone has a link, I would love to see it.


Mar 2, 2013 - 2:01pm
Mar 2, 2013 - 2:05pm

Santa's interview

On another topic from that interview, Santa suggests that one reason that he was able to time the exact top of the gold market in 1980, is that he may have had a significant hand in actually turning it.

I'm still getting my head around whether to make anything of that. It looked ready to pop anyway, maybe even the same day. But was his the very hand that pushed the snowball down the hilltop?

It may interest some.

Mar 2, 2013 - 2:06pm


So to get to my point from the last thread, that Congress is not intelligent enough to consider the ramifications of their legislation and thus bumbled into the banking crisis of 2008, the same factors are at play in 2013.

As we have discussed on this blog continuously, congress and our president are doing the exact opposite of what is needed to repair our country, and indeed many feel the US is beyond repair. the issues are complex (yet simple) and require education that these idiots do not have. Our Keynesian politicians do not understand the nature of money—they think it grows on trees and that more money means more prosperity. “Get to work, Mr Chairman” was uttered at Bernanke as the Senate response to fix the economy. In reality, all a money printer can do is print, which is what got us here in the first place. These politicians probably cannot even read a budget spreadsheet prepared by a professional accountant—“credits, debits, encumbrances—it makes my head spin.”

Congress is inept. Worse yet, they may be outright corrupt. But that is not a claim that I could substantiate from where I sit. I like to stay on the safe ground when trying to educate friends and relatives. I do not want to appear to be a tin-foil nut job, even though I am. But all one has to do is read the papers to get all the data they need to make a strong case that American politicians are inept, not up to the job, unintelligent, incompetent, and have already led us too far into the desert to safely return. The buzzards are circling.

So I stack. And when I doubt the wisdom of adding more metal, I prep. I do not intend to get caught with my pants down, unprepared, ignorant, confused and wondering what just happened while the bankers make off with my life savings—like I did in 2008.

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
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