Gold? Silver? The Miners?....All Three?

379
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 - 9:06am

While kicking around YouTube last night, I found this interesting video.

This video is an interview of Jay Taylor, who is an analyst and a radio host. He discusses the metals, the miners, the economy and even the gold standard and he does so from the point of view of a "Turdite" so I thought you'd find it informative and compelling. It might even be a good one to send along to family and friends who are "on the fence".

Video unavailable

TF

12:40 p.m. EST UPDATE:

I'm extraordinarily busy today so there is no time for a full, new post. However, as you've noticed, The Bernank has thrown us a few bones today in an attempt to talk up the stock market and increase his beloved "wealth effect".

I've noticed several requests for updated charts so I've posted them below. As we discussed yesterday, there are stages and hurdles in every recovery and the action today has boosted us through several. This is good as it greatly increases the pressure on the existing shorts, particularly those that were late to the game and were only sucked in last week. And that is where we will find our "critical levels".

First of all, we need to put today in the books without giving too much back. As I type, I've got gold near $1613 and it simply need to close above $1600 for our recovery purposes. IF we get something above $1615...even better! In silver, I really want to see us close above $29.20 and I've got a last of $29.34. Keep your fingers crossed.

As mentioned above, each metal now has a "critical level" and those can be found by looking at the price action since the beginning of the year. Recall that back on Jan 3 and 4, the metals were shoved lower and gold found a bottom near $1626. As price swooned two weeks ago, it became clear to nearly everyone that the $1626 level was going to be important support and, below there, the shorts would find plenty of sell-stops to harvest. Taking advantage of thin, overnight trading, The Bad Guys were able to swamp $1625 in U.S. wee hours of Friday, the 15th. Once below there, all sorts of tech-trading HFTs and momos were drawn into the short trade and the result was last week's cascade down to a low of $1555.

Almost all of those trades are now under water. If I were a fresh short, I'd be almost panicky here with a very itchy trigger finger. My only hope is that we stay below $1625 and then move back lower. In desperation, I may even double-down in the hopes of rescuing myself.

So there you have it. The "critical level" in this recovery is $1625. In silver, the commensurate point on the chart is near $30.20 so that is the other critical level. Watch them closely the rest of this week. WHEN price finally recovers through those levels, I expect a rapid return toward the levels sustained before the Chinese New Year, when The Forces of Darkness felt compelled to begin this current event...roughly $1670 in gold and $31.50 in silver.

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  379 Comments

Be Prepared
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:23am

A Crash of the Dead Society...

The social history of mankind exhibits great organizations in their alternating
functions of conditions for progress, and of contrivances for stunting humanity.
The history of the Mediterranean lands, and of western Europe, is the history of
the blessing and the curse of political organizations, of religious organizations, of
schemes of thought, of social agencies for large purposes. The moment of domi-
nance, prayed for, worked for, sacrificed for, by generations of the noblest spirits,
marks the turning point where the blessing passes into the curse. Some new prin-
ciple of refreshment is required. The art of progress is to preserve order amid
change, and to preserve change amid order. Life refuses to be embalmed alive.
The more prolonged the halt in some unrelieved system of order, the greater the
crash of the dead society.

Alfred North Whitehead

Mr. Whitehead put this together in the 1920s.... seems ever so relevant today... :-)

Horst
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:29am

Okay, but not an

Okay, but not an extraordinary interview. I recommend Andrew Maguire's latest audio interview on KWN if you want to spend 10-20 minutes well.

Mickey
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:30am

Jay Taylor

has some good PM mileage on him, well connected too.

He does have a preference for juniors with the ups and downs and I think does pretty good research.

zinloverUrban Roman
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:34am

avoid miners?

Uh, you mean those companies that dig money right out of the ground? FWIW (which is probably nothing) if all the miners go out of business, then the price of the thing they DON'T produce would go much, much higher than I can even imagine. Which, as fuel get more expensive, or is diverted to say, grow food, could happen. Its not like they make an I-thing...

Groaner
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:38am

Uncle Ben before CONgress.

Ron Paul needs to be there to really drill him...

the customary smack down is expected

SilverSurfers
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:38am

This should be a top 10er

how's that 2/20 28.57 bottom workin out for ya all?

Yeah Turd, you are way cool, with this site, info and stuff.

The public can get really weird at times, and ya just have to blow it off.

You know we hard-core bugs, LOVE YA MAN, just love you.

So, wife wants new couches to go with that new wood floor. I object of course, the tight-wad I am, I mean, the couches we have are 24 years old, still good for another decade in them, right? and they my body print embedded in them, and thats a heck of allot potatoe couching.. they were special, so cozy. But wife wanted new. :( So, we go down MACY and pick em out, 2 grand man, 2 grand for some freakin couches. They go we dont have them in stock, it will take 3 mo. 3mo!!! I scream, but its what the wife wants, so you pay up and wait, and wait we did, FOR THE BIG day.

I come cruisin home, and delivery truck is out front, the couches parked already in the house. One of two delivery guys is standing there with the clip board for me to sign, as Im walking in. Of course, without any inspection, I sign, and they bail. They were 1 hours late, and I was their last delivery. They were in a hurry I guess.

As soon as I look at the couches, one arm had a knife slit in it. It was obviously an exacto-knife cut from a UNDER-PRESSURE guy, cutting packaging away at time of deliver, and just got careless, and made a mistake. If you are not making mistakes, you are not doing anything. Chit happens. But here is the deal. The slit was obvious to anyone, and the delivery guy did not tell me, and that my friends, while handing me the clip board, is DECEIT.

So, I call em that night, and next day sent out a guy, who confirmed what was obvious, and said Macy would order replacement fabric, and they would repair in my house. But I did not order a repaired couch, I ordered a NEW ONE. They told be the fabric would be send in a month, and it never came. I call back, and had a discussion, it ended with,

if you guys dont deliver a new couch forthwith, I coming down to macy's with a BASEBALL BAT, and you all really dont want that. The guy on the phone stammers a bit. I said, I got the manager name, what's your name, he stammered again, and said, we will order you a replacement NEW couch.

I said back, "retail is great, eh?"

Trud, when you deal with the public, particular in bullion, where buy timing can be dishearting to the novice, look out for the hate mail turd. We all know you are really special, a loved bro.

But, "retail is great, eh?"

erewenguy
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:42am

Looks like an island reversal

Looks like an island reversal being forced in silver today

Cobalt Silver
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:43am

Looking Good

Just now on CNBS Squat on the Street, "Goldman slashes outlook for Gold."

Unload now muppets.

Hammer
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:48am

Hey Ivars, I dunno about

Hey Ivars, they are gonna start charging to go up Mt Fuji, their national icon for the first time in.....errrrr.......ever and this year there is a 2.1 per cent income tax specially levied for the next 25 years https://accjjournal.com/belt-tightening/ to help with tsunami and earthquake damage from a couple of years ago. Noble but still a tax either way you look at it. Boots on ground report.

https://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/mount-fuji-climbing-fe...

and The Japanese government who owns 50% of Japan Tabacco is selling half their holdings for a cool 10 billion usd.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/japan-s-government-to-sell-10-...

ivars
Feb 26, 2013 - 9:49am

@Hammer

Yes, its all so hypocritical and so much to figure out and so much noise information until you get to the gist... which some people in the markets seem to know or just use to their convenience.

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